A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

The only thing I don't like is this whole 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 that DD seems to do a lot of. Some times those throw ins really amount to something. E.G. Brock Holt. It would have been nice to of got back a lower level prospect in the trade.

 

Pennington might be the best of the three. Here's the summary on Pennington from soxprospects.com:

 

Potential late-inning arm if things break right, but has a long way to go and a lot of risk due to previous Tommy John surgery. Because of prior arm trouble, delivery, build, and lack of a third pitch, doesn’t profile as a starter, although will likely be developed as one.

[a700hitter]

Now that we have Thornburg, trading Buch makes way less sense

 

Good

How do you come to that conclusion. I am not following you.

[moonslav59]

How do you come to that conclusion. I am not following you.

 

I thought we needed to trade Buch to be able to afford a top 8th inning RPers and maybe a LH'd hitting DH, but this trade cost us little off the luxury tax budget.

 

I thought it was Buch -OR- a top 8th inning RP'er + LH'd DH.

 

Now, we can have Buch + top 8th inning RP'er + maybe a DH.

 

I was not as high as many on Shaw.

 

Word was Dubon looked to top out as a good utility guy.

 

Pennington had Tommy John surgery and is a huge "if".

 

 

Like I said, I value the 6th starter position, but it looked like its high cost might prevent us from filling higher need areas.

 

I was wrong. DD pulled off a good trade. I'm happy.

Edited December 6, 2016 by moonslav59

[Emp9]

The only thing I don't like is this whole 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 that DD seems to do a lot of. Some times those throw ins really amount to something. E.G. Brock Holt. It would have been nice to of got back a lower level prospect in the trade.

 

I agree, thats also a huge part of it. We're not even getting a far-away low-level prospect that has 5-10 percent chance of making the show... back to help replenish the farm in any way whatsoever.

[southpaw777]

I do value the 6th starter position, but I do not to the tune of $13.5M, and nobody should.

 

We can use some of the money and maybe a prospect or two to build up a pen that was mediocre and just lost Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. With the rest of the money, we can sign a couple guys like RDLR.

 

I'm not happy about our starter depth, but the pen is a greater concern to me.

 

It depends on whether DD sees Buch as a guy in the rotation to start the season in 2017.

[S5Dewey]

So we're now looking at a starting rotation of (in no particular order)

Price

Porcillo

Pomeranz

Wright

ERod

Buch

 

...and a bullpen of... (again in no particular order)

 

Kimbrel

Thornburg

Kelly

Hembree ?

Scott ?

Ross ?

Barnes ?

 

That's 13 pitchers a/k/a "a stable full". Now go out and sign Koji, put him in place of one of the guys with a question mark after his name, and we're set!

[moonslav59]

MLBTR estimates Thornburg's arb cost at : (3.057) – $2.2MM!

 

That leaves us with close to $8M to try and sign Adam Lind, Brandon Moss or Pedro Alvarez. I think Alvarez makes more sense, because he can play 3B (poorly, granted).

 

It would be great, if we could find a way to get Alvarez and Uehara.

 

Here's an idea: let's say Uehara wants to retire after 2017. We could sign him to a three year $7.5M deal, and it would only cost us $2.5M on the luxury budget.

[moonslav59]

It depends on whether DD sees Buch as a guy in the rotation to start the season in 2017.

 

Well, if it's Pomeranz, it's a lot cheaper for the 6th starter.

[southpaw777]

So we're now looking at a starting rotation of (in no particular order)

Price

Porcillo

Pomeranz

Wright

ERod

Buch

 

...and a bullpen of... (again in no particular order)

 

Kimbrel

Thornburg

Kelly

Hembree ?

Scott ?

Ross ?

Barnes ?

 

That's 13 pitchers a/k/a "a stable full". Now go out and sign Koji, put him in place of one of the guys with a question mark after his name, and we're set!

 

Add in smith mid season..almost like picking up someone at the deadline. He could be a huge boost mid season.

[S5Dewey]

Add in smith mid season..almost like picking up someone at the deadline. He could be a huge boost mid season.

 

yes...yes.. yes... I forgot Smith! Things get better!!

[southpaw777]

Well, if it's Pomeranz, it's a lot cheaper for the 6th starter.

 

DD probably wants a strong top 6-8 if he can, so The six we have now will most likely be added to. Depending on who we acquire will depend on if we let go of a guy like Buch or Pom. I expect a couple moves for depth guys. And i also am not ruling out a trade for Sale...DD is not done yet.

[moonslav59]

So we're now looking at a starting rotation of (in no particular order)

Price

Porcillo

Pomeranz

Wright

ERod

Buch

 

...and a bullpen of... (again in no particular order)

 

Kimbrel

Thornburg

Kelly

Hembree ?

Scott ?

Ross ?

Barnes ?

 

That's 13 pitchers a/k/a "a stable full". Now go out and sign Koji, put him in place of one of the guys with a question mark after his name, and we're set!

 

I'm surprised we didn't give Milwaukee one of our out-of-options RP'ers: Hembree, Abad or Elias. Maybe we'll make a seperate 2 or 3 for one type deal for another RP'er.

 

I'll "order it":

 

SP1 Porcello

SP2 Price

SP3 ERod

SP4 Wright

SP5 Pomeranz

SP6/long RP: Buchholz

 

Closer: Kimbrel

RP2: Thornburg

RP3: (Smith-Buchholz) Kelly

RP4: Ross

RP5: Barnes

RP6: Hembree/Abad/Elias (all out of options)

 

That's the 12 pitchers on opening day, baring injury or roster decisions based on options remaining.

 

Others: Owens, Johnson, Scott, Workman, Martin, N Ramirez, Ysla, Jerez

 

 

.

[oldtimer]

I agree, thats also a huge part of it. We're not even getting a far-away low-level prospect that has 5-10 percent chance of making the show... back to help replenish the farm in any way whatsoever.

 

DD got what we needed but we did take 3 arrows out of our quiver to make the trade. That's 3 less left for follow-on trades that will probably come in the next day or two. We still could move on 1st base, DH, 3rd base or more pitching.

[moonslav59]

DD probably wants a strong top 6-8 if he can, so The six we have now will most likely be added to.

 

Maybe a vet or two signed to a minor league deal.

[moonslav59]

DD got what we needed but we did take 3 arrows out of our quiver to make the trade. That's 3 less left for follow-on trades that will probably come in the next day or two. We still could move on 1st base, DH, 3rd base or more pitching.

 

I have to think someone would like one or two of our out-of-options RP'ers: Hembree, Abad or Elias.

 

Maybe we could trade 3 from: Abad, Elias, TBall & Chavis for another low cost solid RP'er.

[southpaw777]

DD probably wants a strong top 6-8 if he can, so The six we have now will most likely be added to.

 

Maybe a vet or two signed to a minor league deal.[/quote

 

Yes. Theyll try and sign a couple to AAA deals

[moonslav59]

DD probably wants a strong top 6-8 if he can, so The six we have now will most likely be added to.

 

Maybe a vet or two signed to a minor league deal.[/quote

 

Yes. Theyll try and sign a couple to AAA deals

 

I'm not for trading Buch anymore.

 

I do thing adding a couple vet starters to minor league deals make sense.

 

I'm not sure who the Aaron Cooks are in the world today.

 

I'd see if RDLR would agree to a minor league deal for cheap, but Edwin Escobar just signed for over $2M, so I'm not sure what's out there.

[Spudboy]

So we're now looking at a starting rotation of (in no particular order)

Price

Porcillo

Pomeranz

Wright

ERod

Buch

 

...and a bullpen of... (again in no particular order)

 

Kimbrel

Thornburg

Kelly

Hembree ?

Scott ?

Ross ?

Barnes ?

 

That's 13 pitchers a/k/a "a stable full". Now go out and sign Koji, put him in place of one of the guys with a question mark after his name, and we're set!

 

Yup. Signing Koji makes sense.

[moonslav59]

Yup. Signing Koji makes sense.

 

It does, but if we want to stay under our $10M winter spending limit, we may have to give up on signing a LH'd hitting DH at Uehara's expense.

 

I'm not saying no; I'm just saying it may be an either or.

 

Maybe we can trade for a cheap platoon player making minimum.

[Emp9]

DD got what we needed but we did take 3 arrows out of our quiver to make the trade. That's 3 less left for follow-on trades that will probably come in the next day or two. We still could move on 1st base, DH, 3rd base or more pitching.

 

I like the trade, but one has to be concerned with the underlying flawed pattern of giving up a lot and not getting anything back but the one piece, trade after trade after trade. It may turn into a problem if it hasn't already. Being banned from signing International players ( on some BS ) doesn't help either. I do like this trade though. Hope he's healthy.

[moonslav59]

I like the trade, but one has to be concerned with the underlying flawed pattern of giving up a lot and not getting anything back but the one piece, trade after trade after trade. It may turn into a problem if it hasn't already. Being banned from signing International players ( on some BS ) doesn't help either. I do like this trade though. Hope he's healthy.

 

I share your concern, but I really don't think Shaw was going to be a big part of our future. I think with Travis in the wings and Holt/Hernandez on the MLB roster, his playing time was going to diminish. I think Dubon was destined to be a utility IF'er, and Pennington was a long shot. Sure, giving up on 3 hopes might prove to be a mistake, if 2 do well, but I think Thornburg for three years makes too much sense to not pull the trigger on a deal like this.

[S5Dewey]

I'm surprised we didn't give Milwaukee one of our out-of-options RP'ers: Hembree, Abad or Elias. Maybe we'll make a seperate 2 or 3 for one type deal for another RP'er.

 

I'll "order it":

 

SP1 Porcello

SP2 Price

SP3 ERod

SP4 Wright

SP5 Pomeranz

SP6/long RP: Buchholz

 

Closer: Kimbrel

RP2: Thornburg

RP3: (Smith-Buchholz) Kelly

RP4: Ross

RP5: Barnes

RP6: Hembree/Abad/Elias (all out of options)

 

That's the 12 pitchers on opening day, baring injury or roster decisions based on options remaining.

 

Others: Owens, Johnson, Scott, Workman, Martin, N Ramirez, Ysla, Jerez

 

 

.

 

I agree for the most part, but I still like Koji as our #2 in the pen. Actually I still like him as our closer but that ain't gonna happen for several reasons which I don't think are good ones.

[moonslav59]

I agree for the most part, but I still like Koji as our #2 in the pen. Actually I still like him as our closer but that ain't gonna happen for several reasons which I don't think are good ones.

 

I'd love to see us find a way to sign Uehara and acquire a cheap LH'd hitting corner IF/DH type and stay under the limit. It's a close squeeze, but just maybe...

 

[S5Dewey]

I'd love to see us find a way to sign Uehara and acquire a cheap LH'd hitting corner IF/DH type and stay under the limit. It's a close squeeze, but just maybe...

 

 

Here's what bothers me about going into a season at or near the limit: It seems like we do this every year and then a need pops up that forces us over the limit. Then we go all season jockeying the roster to (unsuccessfully) get under the limit again.

 

I'm not saying that I'd give up a chance to sign Koji just to stay well under the limit. I wouldn't. I'm jus' sayin'...

[Bellhorn04]

The only thing I don't like is this whole 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 that DD seems to do a lot of.

 

Kimbrel and Thornburg, but who else?

[S5Dewey]

I don't have a problem with the 3-or-4 for 1's as long as it's done judiciously. In this real world there are many players in AA and AAA who will never make it to MLB. They're occupying positions so that the true prospects can play their position and be a part of a team. Without them we'd have three or four players in Portland or Pawtucket - not enough for a team.

 

As long as the FO can weed out the hay from the chaff and trade the chaff to other teams who may be looking for chaff of their own I don't have a problem with it. And yes, once in a while it'll come back to bite you on the ass that you've traded away a late bloomer. However, given the %-age of minor leaguers who make it to MLB it's a decent risk to take as long as we fill a need.

[moonslav59]

Here's what bothers me about going into a season at or near the limit: It seems like we do this every year and then a need pops up that forces us over the limit. Then we go all season jockeying the roster to (unsuccessfully) get under the limit again.

 

That did seem to happen in 2006 and 2010, but I think we knew all along we'd be over this year. In hindisght, we just went over by a little...I think about $5M. Had we not signed Young or made a Thornburg like trade, instead of the Kimbrel trade, we'd be reset already with the tax and could go over this year. Oh well.

 

I'm not saying that I'd give up a chance to sign Koji just to stay well under the limit. I wouldn't. I'm jus' sayin'...

 

I think resetting the tax is a high priority. Next year's FA class is a good one, and we can't be at the highest tax rate next winter.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel and Thornburg, but who else?

 

True: the Miley trade was 2 for 2. The Pom trade was 1 for 1. The Ziegler trade was 2 for 1 and the Aaron Hill trade was 2 for 1, but the 2nd player was not really significant.

[S5Dewey]

 

I think resetting the tax is a high priority. Next year's FA class is a good one, and we can't be at the highest tax rate next winter.

As I posted elsewhere, I think that many teams are going to have to come to Jesus (Jesus Alou, that is ) regarding their spending habits. Going over the LT limit now is a double whammy in that not only does a team have to pay the LT they also don't get revenue sharing starting this year. That's a SERIOUS penalty.

 

So yeah, this may be the year.

[moonslav59]

As I posted elsewhere, I think that many teams are going to have to come to Jesus (Jesus Alou, that is ) regarding their spending habits. Going over the LT limit now is a double whammy in that not only does a team have to pay the LT they also don't get revenue sharing starting this year. That's a SERIOUS penalty.

 

So yeah, this may be the year.

 

We lose Buch and Young next winter, and although that frees up $20M, we're going to need to replace them somehow. Hopefully, we can do so from within our system, but even if we can, we're going to have to start thinking about locking up our kids or signing some big players starting next winter.

 

This really has to be the year we reset.