A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[NativeBostonian]

I think the Red Sox are going to be pigeonholed for the next couple years with what they can do. Ben Charrington really screwed up their finances with bad decisions. I don't see them making a move this off-season. Edited December 5, 2016 by NativeBostonian

[moonslav59]

Wasn't worried about Luxury Tax, I was thinking what return would you get. Not much. Might as well keep him for now.

 

I think we would get a nice return.

 

The luxurt tax savings should be considered. Saving $10-13M would mean we could add a FA or two.

[moonslav59]

I think the Red Sox are going to be pigeonholed for the next couple years with what they can do. Ben Charrington really screwed up their finances with bad decisions. I don't see them making a move this off-season.

 

Well, spending $44M on Price and Kimbrel is on DD.

 

I think, if we reset the luxury tax this winter, Henry will give the okay to go over next winter, when the market is full of gems.

[Hugh2]

Ok so I registered a new account because I can't log into my account from home. Every time I tried to answer the question to reset my password it told me I was wrong. I'm 99.99999999% sure Ted Williams wore #9 for the red sox oh well. Simple name, I don't need to no trickery aliases.

[jacksonianmarch]

After 2018 is the big one

[Hugh2]

https://twitter.com/RochieWBZ/status/805934009767182336/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

But yeah....comeback player of the year???

[moonslav59]

Rumor is the Nats are close to getting Sale.

 

Lucas Giolito 22 y.o. RHP (ranked 5th by BA/4th midseason and 3rd by BP)

--for those of you crapping on Espi's numbers, this guy had a 4.69 ERA at AA this year (71 IP).

 

Plus Vjctor Robles 19 y.o. OF (ranked 33rd by BA/13th midseason and 29th by BP)

 

Hard to match that.

--.741 at A+ ball this year (198 PAs)

 

[moonslav59]

https://twitter.com/RochieWBZ/status/805934009767182336/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

But yeah....comeback player of the year???

 

Looks fantastic! Good sign...now- just stay that way!

[Spudboy]

I would start by re-signing Koji. Even though his innings would have to be carefully managed, we know that he can handle the 8th inning. Maybe he could hold down the fort until Smith is ready.

 

Relievers are up and down. Once upon a time, Miller was not very good. Now he's lights out. Perhaps Barnes or Kelly or someone else will step it up.

 

I would definitely resign Koji and have said it several times. Just 5-6 mil for one year plus incentives if necessary.

 

I'd also try for Taz, too.

[southpaw777]

I agree on Elias. Name of the game is being able to replace someone like Porcello when he's due $30M in 3 years. We can't keep all the good players. It's not possible. We've already shot our load with Price. And we will pay big for retaining Betts (I would give him $300M over 10 years first chance I get).

 

You have to pick and choose. If we keep Buchholtz, then we can't sign someone like Chapman. I would still consider trading away Xander before Bradley Jr. SS is a defensive position. You can find .250 hitting slick defenders. Bradley Jr is an elite center fielder that has some pop. We won't be able to keep 2 Boras clients. Count on it.

 

If the goal is to win the world series, Champman would become more valuable than Buchholtz. I'd roll the dice on depleting starters. Hope for the best with Porcello, Price, E Rod, Wright and Pomeranz. Big question mark is can we protect the lead from innings 6-8?

 

Yeah but you cant find 300ba 25hr with solid D at SS everywhere... JBJ 100% goes before Xander in all scinarios....we have 2 players who can step right in and replace JBJ. Your not going to make up Xanders production at that position.

[southpaw777]

I'm not sure if the market is moving in this direction, though. Teams are starting to place higher and higher value on position players due to the uncertainty with the health of so many pitchers. This is why the Braves and Nats will not include Swanson and Turner for Sale. Moncada is comparable to Swanson and Turner in terms of value.

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-dansby-swanson-not-sale-even-sale/

 

Alvarez is a poor defensive player, but he could play 1b or 3b in emergency situations. His acquisition would make T.Shaw much less necessary and a possible trade candidate, maybe for a reliever. The Red Sox would still have B.Holt on the 25 man roster, along with Moncada and Sam Travis in the minors. They should shop Shaw to a team desperate for 3b help.

 

Has NOTHING to do with confidence. Its all about Depth! If you think we can get by with 5-6 legit starters for a whole season then your on an island all by your self...again, you have to wait to see how everything goes. What if Wright is still barking about his shoulder? What if ERod or another guy twists his knee? Theres only one legit guy that can jump right in...i mean, unless you like Owens and Johnson..maybe Haley?

The right move is to wait it out for now...of course unless you have worked a deal for a Pomeranz type with the same $$. But then theres the fact that your not going to get much of a return at all for buch. Problem is hes more valuable to us right now with our current SP situation.

 

EDIT: sorry, this post was supposed to be for Nick but I must have done something wrong..

[southpaw777]

Waiting until the deadline to trade Buch only saves about $4.5M out of the $13.5M contract.

 

I undrstand we save $$, but at what cost? We lose our only legit SP depth...im not rolling the dice on Owens and Johnson for first call ups...Id rather have either Buch or Wright for the #6 spot...we have s*** for pitching depth and if anyone thinks we should go into the season with only 5 legit MLB stRters then I want some of what your smoking because apparently mine Isnt as good.

[southpaw777]

Rumor is the Nats are close to getting Sale.

 

Lucas Giolito 22 y.o. RHP (ranked 5th by BA/4th midseason and 3rd by BP)

--for those of you crapping on Espi's numbers, this guy had a 4.69 ERA at AA this year (71 IP).

 

Plus Vjctor Robles 19 y.o. OF (ranked 33rd by BA/13th midseason and 29th by BP)

 

Hard to match that.

--.741 at A+ ball this year (198 PAs)

 

 

Youe comparing a 22yo in AA to a 18yo having a tough go in low A? Ok...

[moonslav59]

I undrstand we save $$, but at what cost? We lose our only legit SP depth...im not rolling the dice on Owens and Johnson for first call ups...Id rather have either Buch or Wright for the #6 spot...we have s*** for pitching depth and if anyone thinks we should go into the season with only 5 legit MLB stRters then I want some of what your smoking because apparently mine Isnt as good.

 

I do value the 6th starter position, but I do not to the tune of $13.5M, and nobody should.

 

We can use some of the money and maybe a prospect or two to build up a pen that was mediocre and just lost Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. With the rest of the money, we can sign a couple guys like RDLR.

 

I'm not happy about our starter depth, but the pen is a greater concern to me.

[moonslav59]

You comparing a 22yo in AA to a 18yo having a tough go in low A? Ok...

 

No. I didn't care about Espi's numbers- others did.

 

Every time I talk about how much we gave up for someone, posters bring up numbers from the minors to try and prove the player we gave up was not as good as I think he is or might be. I'm trying to show the folly of such arguments. I think Giolito is the real deal- just like I think Moncada and Devers are and Espi and Margot were.

[Bellhorn04]

I do value the 6th starter position, but I do not to the tune of $13.5M, and nobody should.

 

We keep calling him the #6 starter here, but the Sox might be just looking at him as one of 6 starters, who might end up as the #3 starter like he did this year.

[S5Dewey]

I do value the 6th starter position, but I do not to the tune of $13.5M, and nobody should.

 

Ehhh... .I'm not sure I can buy that. Ryan Dempster made $13.25M in 2013 as our 5th or 6th starter and put up a 4.5 ERA in 6 innings (or 3 runs per start). Any team whose #5 or #6 can do that has a good shot at a WS championship if only because that means they have 4 or 5 pitchers who are better than that nearer the top of the rotation.

 

I'm aware of Buch's durability issues but at the same time I'm a "the glass is half full" kinda guy. Were it up to me I'd pay him the $13.5 and keep him around for as long as he's pitching well. Then when he goes down I'd sub for him with the same guy who would have started in Buch's place had we traded him.

 

I agree with those who say that we don't know how many QS'S we're going to get out of him but that means exactly that - we don't know. It may be

as few as 2-3 or it may be as many as 25, and I see either one of those scenarios being as unlikely as the other one. I'd predict someplace in between. I'd keep him and roll the dice only because his stuff is SO good that he could end up as a #2 or #3. If that happens I want him in a Boston uniform.

 

Edit: BTW, is anyone else having trouble with this forum running unusually slowly for the past few days?

Edited December 6, 2016 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

We keep calling him the #6 starter here, but the Sox might be just looking at him as one of 6 starters, who might end up as the #3 starter like he did this year.

 

True, and I have said based on recent Sox history, that there will probably be 30 starts available to our 6th and beyond starters, but I see Buch as our 5th or 6th starter right now. I doubt we use Wright out of the pen, so it's between Pomeranz and Buch.

I know starter depth is a concern. I'm scared as hell of the thought of having to use Elias, Owens, Johnson or the next O'Sullivan next year, but I have even more grave concerns about our pen.

 

I'm not sure if posters are being fooled by how well our pen did in September, but counting on Kelly, Barnes and Hembree to take up the slack from departing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa scares the bejesus out of me! I wouldn't count on Carson Smith coming back before July, and when he does, what can we expect?

 

The whole league is moving towards stronger and deeper pens. We can't afford to move from the mediocrity of our 2016 pen to something worse. We can hope nobody gets hurt, and Buch becomes a force in the pen. We can Hope Kelly builds on his late season showing last year, but we gave the guy a starting slot based on his ending to 2015. Assuming he's a lock on a quality set-up role is a dangerous gamble. Ross has been steady for several years, but I'm not sure he's 8th inning caliber. Wanna try and see, if he can do it and risk messing up a good 7th inning guy? Not me. Barnes and Hembree bot are very promising. I have faith in both, but I'm not about to pencil them in for the 8th inning just yet.

 

People, our pen took a gigantic hit losing Ziegler and Uehara. Tazawa wasn't bad either. Even Kimbrel showed signs of regression. What if that continues?

 

Our pen needs serious help. We need at least a solid 8th inning guy that may be able to close, if necessary. I'm not even sure Uehara can fill that role, but he's about the least kind of upgrade we need. If we don't get someone better than Uehara, we might try two guys like Uehara in hopes that one does well and the other okay.

 

With just $10M to spend, it's not going to be easy, unless we want to trade a prospect for a RP'er, something I hate to do. That's why I see gaining budget space by trading Buch as an option. I'm only saying this based on the assumption we are going to reset the luxury tax tax this winter by staying under the limit. There's no other big contract we can trade without creating a bigger hole than our 6th starter slot.

 

In theory, trading Buch for a good RP'er making maybe $3.5M would not only fill a pen slot, but would add $10M to the $10M we have and allow us to sign or trade for a more costly RP'er and LH'd hitting DH or 3Bman not just one or the other. Or, we could go bold and sign Chapman or Jansen or Turner.

[moonslav59]

Ehhh... .I'm not sure I can buy that. Ryan Dempster made $13.25M in 2013 as our 5th or 6th starter and put up a 4.5 ERA in 6 innings (or 3 runs per start). Any team whose #5 or #6 can do that has a good shot at a WS championship if only because that means they have 4 or 5 pitchers who are better than that nearer the top of the rotation.

 

I'm aware of Buch's durability issues but at the same time I'm a "the glass is half full" kinda guy. Were it up to me I'd pay him the $13.5 and keep him around for as long as he's pitching well. Then when he goes down I'd sub for him with the same guy who would have started in Buch's place had we traded him.

 

I agree with those who say that we don't know how many QS'S we're going to get out of him but that means exactly that - we don't know. It may be

as few as 2-3 or it may be as many as 25, and I see either one of those scenarios being as unlikely as the other one. I'd predict someplace in between. I'd keep him and roll the dice only because his stuff is SO good that he could end up as a #2 or #3. If that happens I want him in a Boston uniform.

 

Edit: BTW, is anyone else having trouble with this forum running unusually slowly for the past few days?

 

We did not sign Dempster to be out 6th starter. I had him ahead of Doubront as the 4th starter, and I think Sox management did too. Plus, with a fragile Buch in the rotation, he could easily have ended up the 3rd starter that year.

[Emp9]

say bye bye to Dubon and Shaw

[moonslav59]

Look, I know starter depth is important. I've shown how many starts we have used in recent years from our 6-12th starters many times.

 

Show me a way we can stay under the luxury limit (just $10M to spend), keep Buch, and find a solid 8th inning RPer and maybe another RP'er and a LH'd hitting DH.

 

Show me, without trading a blue chip prospect, and I'm all on board.

[S5Dewey]

True, and I have said based on recent Sox history, that there will probably be 30 starts available to our 6th and beyond starters, but I see Buch as our 5th or 6th starter right now. I doubt we use Wright out of the pen, so it's between Pomeranz and Buch.

I know starter depth is a concern. I'm scared as hell of the thought of having to use Elias, Owens, Johnson or the next O'Sullivan next year, but I have even more grave concerns about our pen.

 

I'm not sure if posters are being fooled by how well our pen did in September, but counting on Kelly, Barnes and Hembree to take up the slack from departing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa scares the bejesus out of me! I wouldn't count on Carson Smith coming back before July, and when he does, what can we expect?

 

The whole league is moving towards stronger and deeper pens. We can't afford to move from the mediocrity of our 2016 pen to something worse. We can hope nobody gets hurt, and Buch becomes a force in the pen. We can Hope Kelly builds on his late season showing last year, but we gave the guy a starting slot based on his ending to 2015. Assuming he's a lock on a quality set-up role is a dangerous gamble. Ross has been steady for several years, but I'm not sure he's 8th inning caliber. Wanna try and see, if he can do it and risk messing up a good 7th inning guy? Not me. Barnes and Hembree bot are very promising. I have faith in both, but I'm not about to pencil them in for the 8th inning just yet.

 

People, our pen took a gigantic hit losing Ziegler and Uehara. Tazawa wasn't bad either. Even Kimbrel showed signs of regression. What if that continues?

 

Our pen needs serious help. We need at least a solid 8th inning guy that may be able to close, if necessary. I'm not even sure Uehara can fill that role, but he's about the least kind of upgrade we need. If we don't get someone better than Uehara, we might try two guys like Uehara in hopes that one does well and the other okay.

 

With just $10M to spend, it's not going to be easy, unless we want to trade a prospect for a RP'er, something I hate to do. That's why I see gaining budget space by trading Buch as an option. I'm only saying this based on the assumption we are going to reset the luxury tax tax this winter by staying under the limit. There's no other big contract we can trade without creating a bigger hole than our 6th starter slot.

 

In theory, trading Buch for a good RP'er making maybe $3.5M would not only fill a pen slot, but would add $10M to the $10M we have and allow us to sign or trade for a more costly RP'er and LH'd hitting DH or 3Bman not just one or the other. Or, we could go bold and sign Chapman or Jansen or Turner.

 

I hear ya, but at the same time I don't think we can dismiss out of hand what happened at the end of last season either. Koji came back strong from his injury - strong enough that there was some grousing about Kimbrel being the closer while Koji was relegated to setup man. I want Koji signed, hopefully for some number

[moonslav59]

say bye bye to Dubon and Shaw

 

Well, there you go: more good prospects for a RP'er. At least he has 3 years of team control through arbs.

[moonslav59]

I hear ya, but at the same time I don't think we can dismiss out of hand what happened at the end of last season either. Koji came back strong from his injury - strong enough that there was some grousing about Kimbrel being the closer while Koji was relegated to setup man. I want Koji signed, hopefully for some number

 

We barely had a competitive pen with Ziegler and Uehara.

 

Thornburg could be a great pick-up. The more I think about it, the more I like the trade. We sold high on Shaw. Dubon is likely blocked and looked to be maybe no better than a good utility IF'er. I hear Pennington might have been included.

 

I'm thinking: good trade DD.

 

Anyone know Thronburg's arb estimate?

[Emp9]

I don't hate it given the environment we're in. I guess I just hate this environment itself, of the last few years of having the pieces to get a bonafide top SP via trade and getting fleeced over RP.

[S5Dewey]

We did not sign Dempster to be out 6th starter. I had him ahead of Doubront as the 4th starter, and I think Sox management did too. Plus, with a fragile Buch in the rotation, he could easily have ended up the 3rd starter that year.

 

You're right, we didn't. But that's where he ended up and it was four seasons ago. Salaries have escalated since then.

 

I'm not sure how wins relate to salary but we're apparently willing to pay $30M for a guy who's expected to win 20 games. That's $1.5M per win. If we get 8-10 wins from Buch - which isn't an unreasonable expectation over the full season - that's the same ratio Price is getting.

 

Equally as important is the fact that he doesn't overburden a team with losses - and that's important. We may be able to pick up a pitcher at a lower salary who'll win those 8-10 games, but at the same time he may lose 15 games doing it where Buch may lose "only" 8-10. Sure, that makes Buch a .500 pitcher over a half season but this other guy has given us 5 more losses, and when a division championship is won by only a game or three, five is a big number.

 

And... there's always the potential that Buch is going to win 17-18 which is a better potential than that guy whom we picked up at half the cost.

[Hugh2]

I think we sold high on all three guys, Thornberg gives you insurance if Kimbrel goes down and also if Smith isn't recovered. If neither of those things happen then the bullpen could be really really good with Kimbrel/Smith/Thornberg at the top. Especially if Barnes takes a step forward this year.

[moonslav59]

Shaw, Dubon and Pennington for Tyler Thornburg.

 

I like the trade.

 

Thornburg had a great season:

 

67 IP

12.1 K/9

0.940 WHIP

199 ERA+

5.1 H/9

 

Maybe he can improve on his 3.4 BB/9.

[Hugh2]

The only thing I don't like is this whole 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 that DD seems to do a lot of. Some times those throw ins really amount to something. E.G. Brock Holt. It would have been nice to of got back a lower level prospect in the trade.

[moonslav59]

You're right, we didn't. But that's where he ended up and it was four seasons ago. Salaries have escalated since then.

 

I'm not sure how wins relate to salary but we're apparently willing to pay $30M for a guy who's expected to win 20 games. That's $1.5M per win. If we get 8-10 wins from Buch - which isn't an unreasonable expectation over the full season - that's the same ratio Price is getting.

 

Equally as important is the fact that he doesn't overburden a team with losses - and that's important. We may be able to pick up a pitcher at a lower salary who'll win those 8-10 games, but at the same time he may lose 15 games doing it where Buch may lose "only" 8-10. Sure, that makes Buch a .500 pitcher over a half season but this other guy has given us 5 more losses, and when a division championship is won by only a game or three, five is a big number.

 

And... there's always the potential that Buch is going to win 17-18 which is a better potential than that guy whom we picked up at half the cost.

 

Now that we have Thornburg, trading Buch makes way less sense.

 

I liked Dubon, but I never viewed him as a plus SS of the future (assuming Bogey bolts to free agency or got moved to 3B years from now).

 

Good trade, DD!