A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

I'm fine with keeping Elias and trading Hembree or Abad, but he'd be a RP'er not a starter, and since he's out of options, he wouldn't be "stretched out" to slide into the starter slot after first Buc slides in.

 

Chances are he won't get to start for a while.

 

I know we need starter depth, but not someone who needs to be on the 25 man roster.

 

Other teams are looking at 25 man roster crunches as well, so maybe Elias, Hembree and Abad do not have much trade value.

[harmony]

Fair enough point about the roster crunch.

 

I may be wrong, but I just can't see the Sox getting rid of Elias who could be a solid back end starter for us. Or maybe it's just me hoping that the Sox don't get rid of him.

 

As the saying goes, these things have a way of working themselves out. As unfair as it might be, someone like Barnes might start the season in AAA because he has options remaining.

Roster Resource typically is a comprehensive website, but it does not list Roenis Elias on the Red Sox depth chart:

 

http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/

 

... although Elias remains on the 40-man roster:

 

http://m.redsox.mlb.com/bos/roster/40-man/

[moonslav59]

Roster Resource typically is a comprehensive website, but it does not list Roenis Elias on the Red Sox depth chart:

 

http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/

 

... although Elias remains on the 40-man roster:

 

http://m.redsox.mlb.com/bos/roster/40-man/

 

They probably view him as a roster crunch candidate.

[Nick]

Is our starting rotation depth really any worse than other teams?

What makes you think 5 of 6 wont' be ready to start the season? (Wright is the only one that finished on the disable list)

If above is true, why the concern?

Is the 3B job Pablo's to lose? Team won't say it but is the FO concerned about finances (not from cash flow but butting up vs the tax limit)?

Does the team feel the need to fill DH spot in addition to acquiring a relief pitcher?

 

Anyone willing to compare %of team's payroll spent by major positional groups? 1. starting pitching 2 relievers 3 catchers 4 infielders 5 outfielders 6 DH...How does Sox compare to other teams? Maybe Moon can do this just for major market teams.

[moonslav59]

Is our starting rotation depth really any worse than other teams?

What makes you think 5 of 6 wont' be ready to start the season? (Wright is the only one that finished on the disable list)

If above is true, why the concern?

 

While I agree starting depth is not near our top priority, one just has to look at Sox recent history to feel concern.

 

Last year, we ended up using our 10th starter (O'Sullivan) by early May!

 

1) Price

2) Porcello

3) ERod (got hurt)

4) Buchholz (sucked early)

5) Kelly (sucked-demoted to pen)

6) Wright

7) Owens (sucked)

8) Elias (sucked)

9) Johnson (emotional issues)

10) O'Sullivan started 4 games in May.

 

Then, we had to trade for Pomeranz to come up with 5 starters!

 

In 2015, we used 12 starters, including 8 with 9 or more starts.

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe Moon can do this just for major market teams.

 

That's too much research for me to do on an issue that does not really concern me much. It would be interesting to see, but some contracts have to do with timing not so much focus by upper management.

 

I have our luxury tax number at about $185M, bus some of that is the player pension cost, so out 40 man roster salaries come to about $173M.

 

$31M Price

$20.6M Porcello

$13.5M Buchholz

 

Just our top paid SP'ers account for 32% of our payroll budget and is more than some team's whole budget.

[Nick]

Maybe Moon can do this just for major market teams.

 

That's too much research for me to do on an issue that does not really concern me much. It would be interesting to see, but some contracts have to do with timing not so much focus by upper management.

 

I have our luxury tax number at about $185M, bus some of that is the player pension cost, so out 40 man roster salaries come to about $173M.

 

$31M Price

$20.6M Porcello

$13.5M Buchholz

 

Just our top paid SP'ers account for 32% of our payroll budget and is more than some team's whole budget.

 

That proves my point.

 

I rather use Buch's 13M elsewhere and take a chance on our remaining starting pitching and get a Chapman type reliever. Having a $13M pitcher as a 'safety net' is not a luxury most teams can afford. Especially one already spending $50M on two starters.

 

My concern is that we won't be able to protect leads. Hey that's okay, we have that extra protection just in case someone runs into second base and gets an ouchy.

Edited December 4, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

That proves my point.

 

I rather use Buch's 13M elsewhere and take a chance on our remaining starting pitching and get a Chapman type reliever. Having a $13M pitcher as a 'safety net' is not a luxury most teams can afford. Especially one already spending $50M on two starters.

 

My concern is that we won't be able to protect leads. Hey that's okay, we have that extra protection just in case someone runs into second base and gets an ouchy.

 

Singing to the choir.

 

I've been saying all along, we should take Buch's option and trade him. Many said we weren't going to be salary stressed. Some said we need Buch, even though half the fans wanted to cut him this year.

 

Sure, we're a better team with Buch, but for $13,5M we can do better.

[notin]

Singing to the choir.

 

I've been saying all along, we should take Buch's option and trade him. Many said we weren't going to be salary stressed. Some said we need Buch, even though half the fans wanted to cut him this year.

 

Sure, we're a better team with Buch, but for $13,5M we can do better.

 

The Sox aren't going to get a better pitcher than Buchholz for $13.5mill and certainly not in this market.

 

And going after Chapman? The Sox have Kimbrel in the role he wants. They do need to add a reliever or two, but Chapman (and Jansen) might get closer to $20million. The Sox shouldn't ignore the pen, but they don't need to chase the big name pitchers in order to get those 180 outs

[Nick]

The Sox aren't going to get a better pitcher than Buchholz for $13.5mill and certainly not in this market.

 

And going after Chapman? The Sox have Kimbrel in the role he wants. They do need to add a reliever or two, but Chapman (and Jansen) might get closer to $20million. The Sox shouldn't ignore the pen, but they don't need to chase the big name pitchers in order to get those 180 outs

 

Point is he may not even start. Both Pomeranz and Wright were All Stars last year. Price and Porcell former Cy Young award winners. E Rod needs an opportunity to have his break out year, he's at same point as Lester was when his career took off.

 

Money is tight from standpoint of budget constraints. It makes sense to trade him. Signing Beltran, trading Clay for a reliever would have strengthened the team with net $4M investment.

Edited December 4, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Point is he may not even start. Both Pomeranz and Wright were All Stars last year. Price and Porcell former Cy Young award winners. E Rod needs an opportunity to have his break out year, he's at same point as Lester was when his career took off.

 

My guess is we will need at least 25 starts beyond our top 5 starters, but $13.5M is still too much to pay, when we have too many other needs and not enough luxury space to fill them all.

Edited December 4, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Money is tight from standpoint of budget constraints. It makes sense to trade him. Signing Beltran, trading Clay for a reliever would have strengthened the team with net $4M investment.

 

Depending on how much the RP'er costs, you're right. $16M for Beltran -$13.5M could have just cost us $3.5M. I figure we have about $10M to stay under the limit, so we'd still have $6.5M to spend. Maybe a little goes to whatever the RP'er we get back makes over minimum, and the rest could maybe sign Ziegler or Uehara.

[harmony]

Depending on how much the RP'er costs, you're right. $16M for Beltran -$13.5M could have just cost us $3.5M. I figure we have about $10M to stay under the limit, so we'd still have $6.5M to spend. Maybe a little goes to whatever the RP'er we get back makes over minimum, and the rest could maybe sign Ziegler or Uehara.

In a Clay Buchholz trade, the trade partner would want to trade a reliever with a surplus value that corresponds with the limited surplus value of Buchholz.

 

If the Red Sox are saving $12 million on the trade the return would be a reliever earning $1.5 million with limited surplus value. That's not a particular good reliever ... probably a pitcher in the back end of the bullpen.

 

MLB Trade Rumors, which has been low on its free agent salary predictions, in early November projected Brad Ziegler with a two-year, $16 million contract. In light of the contracts to Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski, the reliever market may be as heated as the starter market.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html

[moonslav59]

In a Clay Buchholz trade, the trade partner would want to trade a reliever with a surplus value that corresponds with the limited surplus value of Buchholz.

 

If the Red Sox are saving $12 million on the trade the return would be a reliever earning $1.5 million with limited surplus value. That's not a particular good reliever ... probably a pitcher in the back end of the bullpen.

 

MLB Trade Rumors, which has been low on its free agent salary predictions, in early November projected Brad Ziegler with a two-year, $16 million contract. In light of the contracts to Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski, the reliever market may be as heated as the starter market.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html

 

I'm not expecting a number two for Buch. Maybe we can add Hembree or Abad (out of options) and improve the return.

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe I'm wrong about Buch's one year risk of more than $13.5M value to another team. If I am, then we won't get much in return, but even if we just get a decent far away prospect, adding Buch's $13.5M to the budget would be enough to add 2-3 pieces we need more than a $13.5M sixth starter.

[notin]

Point is he may not even start. Both Pomeranz and Wright were All Stars last year. Price and Porcell former Cy Young award winners. E Rod needs an opportunity to have his break out year, he's at same point as Lester was when his career took off.

 

Money is tight from standpoint of budget constraints. It makes sense to trade him. Signing Beltran, trading Clay for a reliever would have strengthened the team with net $4M investment.

 

Of course he'll start. And so will Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright, Rodriguez, and maybe 10 other guys...

[Kimmi]

I'm fine with keeping Elias and trading Hembree or Abad, but he'd be a RP'er not a starter, and since he's out of options, he wouldn't be "stretched out" to slide into the starter slot after first Buc slides in.

 

Chances are he won't get to start for a while.

 

I know we need starter depth, but not someone who needs to be on the 25 man roster.

 

Other teams are looking at 25 man roster crunches as well, so maybe Elias, Hembree and Abad do not have much trade value.

 

The points that you and Notin make about the roster crunch are valid points. It may be difficult to keep Elias on the 25 man roster.

[Kimmi]

Is our starting rotation depth really any worse than other teams?

What makes you think 5 of 6 wont' be ready to start the season? (Wright is the only one that finished on the disable list)

If above is true, why the concern?

Is the 3B job Pablo's to lose? Team won't say it but is the FO concerned about finances (not from cash flow but butting up vs the tax limit)?

Does the team feel the need to fill DH spot in addition to acquiring a relief pitcher?

 

Anyone willing to compare %of team's payroll spent by major positional groups? 1. starting pitching 2 relievers 3 catchers 4 infielders 5 outfielders 6 DH...How does Sox compare to other teams? Maybe Moon can do this just for major market teams.

 

I really don't know how our depth stacks up with other teams.

 

I am not concerned with having 5 or 6 pitchers ready to start the season. I am concerned with the inevitable injuries and/or underperformances that will occur as the season progresses. Do you think that the starting 5 or 6 are going to make every one of their scheduled starts all season long?

 

If we trade Buchholz, then we have a starting 5. What happens if we lose one of those starters for 1/2 a season due to injury? What happens if pitching at 100% in the WBC in March messes ERod up for 2-3 months or longer?

[Kimmi]

That proves my point.

 

I rather use Buch's 13M elsewhere and take a chance on our remaining starting pitching and get a Chapman type reliever. Having a $13M pitcher as a 'safety net' is not a luxury most teams can afford. Especially one already spending $50M on two starters.

 

My concern is that we won't be able to protect leads. Hey that's okay, we have that extra protection just in case someone runs into second base and gets an ouchy.

 

I would much rather keep Buchholz and take a chance on our remaining BP guy than the other way around. Bullpen guys are a lot easier to replace than starters are, which is why their replacement level value is so much lower than starting pitchers.

[Kimmi]

The Sox aren't going to get a better pitcher than Buchholz for $13.5mill and certainly not in this market.

 

And going after Chapman? The Sox have Kimbrel in the role he wants. They do need to add a reliever or two, but Chapman (and Jansen) might get closer to $20million. The Sox shouldn't ignore the pen, but they don't need to chase the big name pitchers in order to get those 180 outs

 

^^This.

[Spudboy]

Kimmi is right.

 

This team needs Buch. As strange as that sound coming from my mouth!

 

Every team should have 7, 8, and even 9 starting pitchers in the system.

 

I bet Buch makes 13-20 starts this year easy.

[Kimmi]

Point is he may not even start. Both Pomeranz and Wright were All Stars last year. Price and Porcell former Cy Young award winners. E Rod needs an opportunity to have his break out year, he's at same point as Lester was when his career took off.

 

Money is tight from standpoint of budget constraints. It makes sense to trade him. Signing Beltran, trading Clay for a reliever would have strengthened the team with net $4M investment.

 

Buchholz will almost certainly start, and my guess is that he will start for a good part of the season.

 

We don't know which Buchholz we will get next year, but remember, Buchholz is an extremely good pitcher when he's right.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi is right.

 

This team needs Buch. As strange as that sound coming from my mouth!

 

Every team should have 7, 8, and even 9 starting pitchers in the system.

 

I bet Buch makes 13-20 starts this year easy.

 

Thank you. Spot on.

[Dojji]

buchholz will almost certainly start, and my guess is that he will start for a good part of the season.

 

We don't know which buchholz we will get next year, but remember, buchholz is an extremely good pitcher when he's motivated.

 

ftfy

[Kimmi]

ftfy

 

I don't think it's a matter of motivation.

 

I think he gets to thinking too much on the mound.

 

He needs to stop thinking and just pitch.

[Bellhorn04]

If the team isn't going to spend a lot of money or make a big trade this offseason, we really need to hope for a couple of 'little miracles' like Clay and Panda having good seasons.

[Kimmi]

Last year, MLB teams used an average of 11 different pitchers during the season. That includes teams like the Braves who used 16 pitchers and probably didn't need to use that many, but the point remains that teams need starting pitching depth. The median was also 11 pitchers.

 

The Jays used the fewest number which was 7.

Two teams used 8.

Seven teams used 9.

Four teams used 10.

Six teams used 11.

One team used 12.

Two teams used 13.

Three teams used 14.

Three teams used 15.

One team used 16.

[oldtimer]

The sportswriters are saying what those on the board have been collectively thinking. The asking price for Sales is just too high and beyond what Boston is willing to pay. Also that EE is out for the same reason. Too high a price and too long a contract. With Beltran as plan A off the table and EE off the table we are back to either a DH by committee or getting a non=optimum solution from outside. Be interesting to see what DD has up his sleeve. Financial constraints and the salary cap may rule the decision making this year, but that remains to be seen.

[Kimmi]

If the team isn't going to spend a lot of money or make a big trade this offseason, we really need to hope for a couple of 'little miracles' like Clay and Panda having good seasons.

 

As a team, our 3B ranked 29th out of 30 teams in fWAR, providing only 0.8 WAR. I don't think it would take much a miracle for one of our options to improve upon that.

 

Remember how awful the #4 and 5 spots in our rotation were for a while? Having Pomeranz for a full year and a hopefully healthy ERod should help to stabilize the back end of our rotation.

[Kimmi]

The sportswriters are saying what those on the board have been collectively thinking. The asking price for Sales is just too high and beyond what Boston is willing to pay. Also that EE is out for the same reason. Too high a price and too long a contract. With Beltran as plan A off the table and EE off the table we are back to either a DH by committee or getting a non=optimum solution from outside. Be interesting to see what DD has up his sleeve. Financial constraints and the salary cap may rule the decision making this year, but that remains to be seen.

 

I think any of us would love to have Encarnacion or Sale on our team. However, I am not willing to pay the current asking price for either player.