A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

A BP Boston blogger discusses a trade for White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/11/2017-offseason-oracle-a-different-type-of-white-sox-trade/

 

I question whether Blake Swihart, Mauricio Dubon, Williams Jerez and Henry Owens would be enough to land Frazier and two to five years of stud reliever Nate Jones (who probably has more trade value than Frazier).

 

Funny. I had Swihart, Shaw, Barnes, Owens and Johnson going to the CWS for Frazier and a different RP'er (Robertson).

 

Pretty close or plagerism?

[Jack Flap]

Pablo as DH? Gagging and vomiting.

 

[Nick]

Why do we want a 1 year or maybe 2 year "solution" at DH?

 

I can see Beltran for two years, but what happens after that?

 

I want to see the Sox maintain how the DH has been used in Boston since 2003.

 

I don't like the idea of counting on DH by committee or only using our current roster to cover the position. I want to replace as much as possible lost production with one player. I don't like the idea of hoping for increased WAR at other positions to replace Ortiz.

 

That won't happen. To believe so is like believing that the gang of 5 were going to be "5 Aces".

 

I can see every position player come out in the spring with a T shirt..."I'm a DH"

[S5Dewey]

It doesn't have to be by committee. HanRam or Pablo may be best suited to DH by 2017 or 2018 (especially Pablo).

 

 

I don't see Sandoval as an adequate replacement at DH. I understand that we're trying to find a place for The Fat Man because of his salary but the guy has a career OPS of .790 with 13 HR's a year. That's respectable enough for a position player but doesn't cut it as a replacement for Papi (.931/27).

[Bellhorn04]

I don't see Sandoval as an adequate replacement at DH. I understand that we're trying to find a place for The Fat Man because of his salary but the guy has a career OPS of .790 with 13 HR's a year. That's respectable enough for a position player but doesn't cut it as a replacement for Papi (.931/27).

 

The only guy who could even come close to replicating Ortiz numbers would be Encarnacion.

 

Sandoval (835 vs RHP) and Young (846 vs LHP) could be an adequate DH platoon IF Pablo is truly in shape to play.

[moonslav59]

The only guy who could even come close to replicating Ortiz numbers would be Encarnacion.

 

Sandoval (835 vs RHP) and Young (846 vs LHP) could be an adequate DH platoon IF Pablo is truly in shape to play.

 

To look even more closely....

 

Here are Pablo's career splits vs RHPs prorated to 650 PAs:

 

.298 21 88 (OBP .352/ SLG .484).

Even during his horrible 2015 season, he maintained a .744 OPS vs righties.

 

Chris Young has been an elite hitter vs LHPs over the past 2 years combined. Out of 144 MLB hitters with over 250 PAs, here's where Young placed:

 

1.076 Goldschmidt

1.061 N Cruz

1.011 Trout

.984 Braun

.980 YOUNG

(HanRam placed 18th and Bogey placed 25th and EE 30th at .872.)

It's essential we find a way for Young to play vs all LH'd starters. Getting a FT DH means we sit Beni or JBJ vs lefties. That diminishes the plus.

 

Signing and playing EE FT may end up benching a damn good hitter vs lefties.

 

The Pablo half of the platoon is not set in stone by any means

 

 

[oldtimer]

To look even more closely....

 

Here are Pablo's career splits vs RHPs prorated to 650 PAs:

 

.298 21 88 (OBP .352/ SLG .484).

Even during his horrible 2015 season, he maintained a .744 OPS vs righties.

 

Chris Young has been an elite hitter vs LHPs over the past 2 years combined. Out of 144 MLB hitters with over 250 PAs, here's where Young placed:

 

1.076 Goldschmidt

1.061 N Cruz

1.011 Trout

.984 Braun

.980 YOUNG

(HanRam placed 18th and Bogey placed 25th and EE 30th at .872.)

It's essential we find a way for Young to play vs all LH'd starters. Getting a FT DH means we sit Beni or JBJ vs lefties. That diminishes the plus.

 

Signing and playing EE FT may end up benching a damn good hitter vs lefties.

 

The Pablo half of the platoon is not set in stone by any means

 

 

 

Word from the Boston press is that EE and Bautista have declined to accept qualifying offers from the Blue Jays, so now signing them also requires giving up our first round draft choice (#26). The long term contract to an aging player at big bucks, the loss of a first round draft choice and getting a RH hitter are good reasons to be cool to the idea of either of these two. I still like Beltran although there is no cinch that we could sign him.

 

Getting Young in against lefties at DH is a good idea, but then we lose depth in the outfield. I suppose if needed JF could pull a switch and move Young from DH to outfield and temporarily fill DH with another bench player but that wouldn't work on a regular basis, so we need another player who can handle DH.

[a700hitter]

Word from the Boston press is that EE and Bautista have declined to accept qualifying offers from the Blue Jays, so now signing them also requires giving up our first round draft choice (#26). The long term contract to an aging player at big bucks, the loss of a first round draft choice and getting a RH hitter are good reasons to be cool to the idea of either of these two. I still like Beltran although there is no cinch that we could sign him.

 

Getting Young in against lefties at DH is a good idea, but then we lose depth in the outfield. I suppose if needed JF could pull a switch and move Young from DH to outfield and temporarily fill DH with another bench player but that wouldn't work on a regular basis, so we need another player who can handle DH.

I am not losing any sleep over losing the #26 selection. We wiffed on Trey Ball who was selected much higher.

[harmony]

Funny. I had Swihart, Shaw, Barnes, Owens and Johnson going to the CWS for Frazier and a different RP'er (Robertson).

 

Pretty close or plagerism?

Two to five years of Nate Jones, who posted 1.8 fWAR this year, is probably worth more than two years of David Robertson, who posted 1.0 fWAR this year.

[Jack Flap]

I am not losing any sleep over losing the #26 selection. We wiffed on Trey Ball who was selected much higher.

 

And then we found Mookie Betts at #172 overall. You never know who will be available or how they will pan out.

 

I don't think the 1st round pick should hold us back from signing a player we need, but it definitely could be a reason to favor someone like Beltran or Holliday over Encarnacion/Bautista.

[moonslav59]

Two to five years of Nate Jones, who posted 1.8 fWAR this year, is probably worth more than two years of David Robertson, who posted 1.0 fWAR this year.

 

That's why I have Barnes and Shaw over Dubon

[moonslav59]

Two to five years of Nate Jones, who posted 1.8 fWAR this year, is probably worth more than two years of David Robertson, who posted 1.0 fWAR this year.

 

What are your thoughts on the Danny Valencia trade?

 

I thought he might make a good 3B platoon with Shaw or just win the job outright.

 

He's got a career .873 OPS vs LHPs.

 

2015-2016 3Bmen (out of top 30 by PAs at 3B)

 

6th vs LHPs at .878

12th vs RHPs at .792

 

10th overall at .822

 

The mariners gave up 22 year old prospect Paul Blackburn- a pitcher with a 6.2 K/9 rate in the minors.

[harmony]

What are your thoughts on the Danny Valencia trade?

 

I thought he might make a good 3B platoon with Shaw or just win the job outright.

 

He's got a career .873 OPS vs LHPs.

 

2015-2016 3Bmen (out of top 30 by PAs at 3B)

 

6th vs LHPs at .878

12th vs RHPs at .792

 

10th overall at .822

 

The mariners gave up 22 year old prospect Paul Blackburn- a pitcher with a 6.2 K/9 rate in the minors.

Seattle needed a righthanded bat at first base and/or right field and Danny Valencia fits the bill. His noted defensive deficiencies are concentrated at third base where Gold Glove finalist Kyle Seager already has it covered for the Mariners. The M's had acquired Paul Blackburn and lefthand-hitting first baseman Dan Vogelbach for lefthander Mike Montgomery at the trade deadline.

 

Every move Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto has made since September 2015 has made some sense although not all have worked out. Dipoto again is moving early in the offseason with the trades for Valencia and veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz.

Edited November 16, 2016 by harmony

[Spudboy]

I am hoping that Dombrowski makes some moves sometime very soon.

 

We need new topics to argue and eventually beat to death.

 

Then resurrect the topic 4, 6,8, and 12 months later to beat to death again.

[cp176]

I am hoping that Dombrowski makes some moves sometime very soon.

 

We need new topics to argue and eventually beat to death.

 

Then resurrect the topic 4, 6,8, and 12 months later to beat to death again.

 

Aint that the truth. lots of jabber out there about the braves, dodgers, and tigers. Not a lot from bosox land.

[moonslav59]

...His noted defensive deficiencies are concentrated at third base where...

 

I guess that's why he wasn't a Sox option at 3B.

 

Thanks.

[southpaw777]

I can see a move for a DH/OF type on a short deal. Think Joey Bats or Beltran. Not sure what JB is asking for, but I wouldnt offer more than a 2 year deal with either one. Beltran most likely being the less expensive but is still a 300ish hitter. Both can play 1b/OF if needed but would be our regular DH for the most part. It would certainly be great come interleague as well and both have a better chance at staying healthy being mostly a DH.

I think were ok at SP going into the season, especially with Buchs option being picked up.

Price, Porcello, Buchholz, ERod, Pomeranz, and Wright. Maybe a Milb signing for depth but I think were ok to start the seaosn like this...I think DD will be active with the bullpen. I can seen another late inning arm since nobody really stepped up and took the 7-8th inning roles. I think a big trade, if there is one, will be done at the deadline.

We need to replace Papis production. Getting a beltran or Joey Bats could make up for some of that production. Also counting on a full year of Beni in LF sould be better than what we had this past year. Together, that coild be the answer.

We have Pablo and Shaw to play 3b. Holt, Hernandez, Rutledge and Marrero can all backup. Rutledge will probably be let go since he starts arb and is redundant with the less expensive Hernandez/Marrero. I also think one of the latter two will be gone, or put through waivers to free up a roster spot. Holt as the super sub, Hernandez/Marerro in AAA Young as BU OF and Shaw as BU corner guy. If they Add Beltran or JB then either one are another BU Corner OF/1b.

This team looks strong heading into 2017 without needing a major overhaul. 3b and DH are the real question marks IMHO, with DH beiing the spot where an outside option is probably the route they take. The bullpen is always a work in progress besides closer it seems. But they will address that as well. Overall, I like what we have and what our team could look like to start 2017...

[moonslav59]

I can see a move for a DH/OF type on a short deal. Think Joey Bats or Beltran. Not sure what JB is asking for, but I wouldnt offer more than a 2 year deal with either one. Beltran most likely being the less expensive but is still a 300ish hitter. Both can play 1b/OF if needed but would be our regular DH for the most part. It would certainly be great come interleague as well and both have a better chance at staying healthy being mostly a DH.

I think were ok at SP going into the season, especially with Buchs option being picked up.

Price, Porcello, Buchholz, ERod, Pomeranz, and Wright. Maybe a Milb signing for depth but I think were ok to start the seaosn like this...I think DD will be active with the bullpen. I can seen another late inning arm since nobody really stepped up and took the 7-8th inning roles. I think a big trade, if there is one, will be done at the deadline.

We need to replace Papis production. Getting a beltran or Joey Bats could make up for some of that production. Also counting on a full year of Beni in LF sould be better than what we had this past year. Together, that coild be the answer.

We have Pablo and Shaw to play 3b. Holt, Hernandez, Rutledge and Marrero can all backup. Rutledge will probably be let go since he starts arb and is redundant with the less expensive Hernandez/Marrero. I also think one of the latter two will be gone, or put through waivers to free up a roster spot. Holt as the super sub, Hernandez/Marerro in AAA Young as BU OF and Shaw as BU corner guy. If they Add Beltran or JB then either one are another BU Corner OF/1b.

This team looks strong heading into 2017 without needing a major overhaul. 3b and DH are the real question marks IMHO, with DH beiing the spot where an outside option is probably the route they take. The bullpen is always a work in progress besides closer it seems. But they will address that as well. Overall, I like what we have and what our team could look like to start 2017...

 

Well said. In theory, it would be nice to acquire a 3Bman that could transition to DH when Moncada/Devers move up, but Justin Turner will be very expensive.

[harmony]

Would the Red Sox be interested in Nelson Cruz as a designated hitter? Over the past three seasons Cruz has posted a .286/.354/.549/.903 line with 127 home runs, 306 RBI and an OPS+ of 147.

 

OK, I'm half joking, but consider this proposal:

 

DH/OF Nelson Cruz (2 years, $28 million)

OF Seth Smith (1 year, $7 million)

RP Steve Cishek (1 year, $6 million)

SP/RP Ariel Miranda (6 years)

 

for

 

OF Jackie Bradley (4 arbitration years)

OF Chris Young (1 year, $6.5 million)

SP Clay Buchholz (1 year, $13.5 million)

SS Deven Marrero (nontender candidate)

 

Smith would replace Bradley's lefthanded bat in an outfield with Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi. Brock Holt and/or Blake Swihart could serve as the fourth outfielder. Steamer projects Smith with a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 in 133 games while projecting Young with 0.5 fWAR in 120 games.

 

This year Craig Kimbrel at 1.2 fWAR was the only Red Sox reliever to exceed Steve Cishek's fWAR of 0.9.

 

Miranda, whom Steamer projects with 1.0 fWAR in 19 games, could be the lefthanded ace out of the bullpen while providing rotation depth. Steamer projects Buchholz with 1.7 fWAR in 23 games.

 

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Would the Red Sox be interested in Nelson Cruz as a designated hitter? Over the past three seasons Cruz has posted a .286/.354/.549/.903 line with 127 home runs, 306 RBI and an OPS+ of 147.

 

OK, I'm half joking, but consider this proposal:

 

DH/OF Nelson Cruz (2 years, $28 million)

OF Seth Smith (1 year, $7 million)

RP Steve Cishek (1 year, $6 million)

SP/RP Ariel Miranda (6 years)

 

for

 

OF Jackie Bradley (4 arbitration years)

OF Chris Young (1 year, $6.5 million)

SP Clay Buchholz (1 year, $13.5 million)

SS Deven Marrero (nontender candidate)

 

Smith would replace Bradley's lefthanded bat in an outfield with Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi. Brock Holt and/or Blake Swihart could serve as the fourth outfielder. Steamer projects Smith with a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 in 133 games while projecting Young with 0.5 fWAR in 120 games.

 

This year Craig Kimbrel at 1.2 fWAR was the only Red Sox reliever to exceed Steve Cishek's fWAR of 0.9.

 

Miranda, whom Steamer projects with 1.0 fWAR in 19 games, could be the lefthanded ace out of the bullpen while providing rotation depth. Steamer projects Buchholz with 1.7 fWAR in 23 games.

 

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

 

You shouldn't have to duck over what looks to be a well though out trade proposal, but it sounds like the Red Sox were unwilling to part with JBJ in a deal for Chris Sale, so I'm pretty certain they won't consider trading him for a package that's highlighted by an aging right-handed hitting DH, especially when you consider how many "DH" types that are free agents.

[moonslav59]

Would the Red Sox be interested in Nelson Cruz as a designated hitter? Over the past three seasons Cruz has posted a .286/.354/.549/.903 line with 127 home runs, 306 RBI and an OPS+ of 147.

 

OK, I'm half joking, but consider this proposal:

 

DH/OF Nelson Cruz (2 years, $28 million)

OF Seth Smith (1 year, $7 million)

RP Steve Cishek (1 year, $6 million)

SP/RP Ariel Miranda (6 years)

 

for

 

OF Jackie Bradley (4 arbitration years)

OF Chris Young (1 year, $6.5 million)

SP Clay Buchholz (1 year, $13.5 million)

SS Deven Marrero (nontender candidate)

 

Smith would replace Bradley's lefthanded bat in an outfield with Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi. Brock Holt and/or Blake Swihart could serve as the fourth outfielder. Steamer projects Smith with a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 in 133 games while projecting Young with 0.5 fWAR in 120 games.

 

This year Craig Kimbrel at 1.2 fWAR was the only Red Sox reliever to exceed Steve Cishek's fWAR of 0.9.

 

Miranda, whom Steamer projects with 1.0 fWAR in 19 games, could be the lefthanded ace out of the bullpen while providing rotation depth. Steamer projects Buchholz with 1.7 fWAR in 23 games.

 

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

 

4 years of JBJ is a steep price to pay for 2 yrs of a DH.

 

Including Young makes the deal too tough to swallow. We'd want Young in LF as Beni moves to CF. I'd rather have Young than Smith.

 

I'm not sure I'd even do JBJ, Buch & Marrero for Cruz, Miranda and Cishek alone.

 

How about Buch and Marrero for Cishek & Miranda? (I'm not sure I'd do even that one.)

[mvp 78]

How about Buch and Marrero for Cishek & Miranda? (I'm not sure I'd do even that one.)

 

I agree. If I were the Mariners' GM, I wouldn't do that deal either...

[southpaw777]

Well said. In theory, it would be nice to acquire a 3Bman that could transition to DH when Moncada/Devers move up, but Justin Turner will be very expensive.

 

I agree about Turner. The short deals with reliable vets seems like the bets route considering our true needs, which are DH and the pen... I really think between What we have for 3b right now we really should be ok. If we need to make a move mid season then so be it, but I think we can start the season at 3b as it stands with what we have now. Hopefully Moncada can catch on at 3b.

Im interested to see what moves DD makes and what prospects he sees fit to protect from the rule 5 draft. Theres a few names to consider.

[harmony]

You shouldn't have to duck over what looks to be a well though out trade proposal, but it sounds like the Red Sox were unwilling to part with JBJ in a deal for Chris Sale, so I'm pretty certain they won't consider trading him for a package that's highlighted by an aging right-handed hitting DH, especially when you consider how many "DH" types that are free agents.

I don't see DH candidates of Nelson Cruz's caliber signing $28 million over two years. As noted, over the past three seasons Cruz has posted an OPS+ of 147 while David Ortiz posted an OPS+ of 148 over the same period. Cruz has been a righthand-hitting David Ortiz with some ability to play the field.

 

My proposal is not realistic because Cruz is revered by Seattle fans, front office and teammates, especially dear friend Robinson Cano. I offered the proposal -- with all its moving parts -- as a brainteaser as we enter the Hot Stove season.

[moonslav59]

I agree about Turner. The short deals with reliable vets seems like the bets route considering our true needs, which are DH and the pen... I really think between What we have for 3b right now we really should be ok. If we need to make a move mid season then so be it, but I think we can start the season at 3b as it stands with what we have now. Hopefully Moncada can catch on at 3b.

Im interested to see what moves DD makes and what prospects he sees fit to protect from the rule 5 draft. Theres a few names to consider.

 

I don't see rule 5 being an issue this year. I think our bottom of the 40 man roster has some guys we can do without- like maybe Brentz, Elias, Abad & Holaday who have zero options.

 

We (may) lose Papi, Ziegler, Uehara, Tazawa, Hill & Hanigan, but we have added these guys from our 60 man DL: Worman, Sandoval, Swihart. I think we're at 38 now. We can afford to get down to 34 or 35 by trading or DFA'ing some or all of the 4 I listed. There's also Marrero (1 option) and Jerez (2 options) that are not high need players.

 

I don't see a lot of players that other teams would want on their 25 man roster all year, but here's the list soxprospects.com has:

 

The following players will be eligible for the December 2016 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2016:

 

Danny Bethea, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Carlos Coste, Ryan Court, Allen Craig, Jake Drehoff, Jeff Driskel, Jeffry Fernandez, Pat Goetze, Reed Gragnani, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Anyelo LeClerc, Tzu-Wei Lin, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Kyle Martin, Mike McCarthy, Daniel McGrath, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Yankory Pimentel, Tim Roberson, Javier Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Jose Sermo, Teddy Stankiewicz, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Jantzen Witte, Luis Ysla

 

I don't see a big problem at the bottom of our roster, even if we sign 4 free agents.

[moonslav59]

I don't see DH candidates of Nelson Cruz's caliber signing $28 million over two years. As noted, over the past three seasons Cruz has posted an OPS+ of 147 while David Ortiz posted an OPS+ of 148 over the same period. Cruz has been a righthand-hitting David Ortiz with some ability to play the field.

 

My proposal is not realistic because Cruz is revered by Seattle fans, front office and teammates, especially dear friend Robinson Cano. I offered the proposal -- with all its moving parts -- as a brainteaser as we enter the Hot Stove season.

 

I get it.

 

We need a big lefty bat though.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I don't see DH candidates of Nelson Cruz's caliber signing $28 million over two years. As noted, over the past three seasons Cruz has posted an OPS+ of 147 while David Ortiz posted an OPS+ of 148 over the same period. Cruz has been a righthand-hitting David Ortiz with some ability to play the field.

 

My proposal is not realistic because Cruz is revered by Seattle fans, front office and teammates, especially dear friend Robinson Cano. I offered the proposal -- with all its moving parts -- as a brainteaser as we enter the Hot Stove season.

 

Fair enough. Let's just call it one of those trades that neither team would ever consider then.

As good as the soon to be 37 year old (Prior to the mid point of next season) Cruz has been, I'm certain that the Sox value JBJ too much to ever consider such a "deal."

[harmony]

I'm not sure I'd even do JBJ, Buch & Marrero for Cruz, Miranda and Cishek alone.

 

How about Buch and Marrero for Cishek & Miranda? (I'm not sure I'd do even that one.)

With Seattle reportedly in the market for a lefthanded reliever, I doubt the Mariners would trade six years of southpaw Ariel Miranda for one year of Clay Buchholz (much less add in Steve Cishek for a shortstop likely to be non-tendered by either team).

[moonslav59]

With Seattle reportedly in the market for a lefthanded reliever, I doubt the Mariners would trade six years of southpaw Ariel Miranda for one year of Clay Buchholz (much less add in Steve Cishek for a shortstop likely to be non-tendered by either team).

 

Would they do Buch and Marrero for Cishek?

 

Buch, Owens, Marrero and Barnes for Cishek and Miranda?

[mvp 78]

Would they do Buch and Marrero for Cishek?

 

Buch, Owens, Marrero and Barnes for Cishek and Miranda?

 

No.