Looking ahead to 2017

[notin]

Anyone who's been reading what I've posted here since I came to this forum knows that I'm not advocating completely for the "eye test". I'm all for a combination of stats and the eye test. My bigger problem is with those who use WAR as the be-all, end-all. It's not. There's room for both.

 

When there's no longer a need for the eye test there will no longer be a need for scouts. Teams will simply collect data for every player, plug it all into a computer, and BINGO! - out pops comprehensive data which will always be correct.

 

THe idea that scouting would disappear is a slippery sope argument. Not to mention, "eye test" from scouts and "eye test" from fans are two entirely different things. Don't take it personal. That encompasses all of us. But as a fan, you tens to watch one team and see one shortstop, centerfielder, etc. play 150 or so times. You see other shortstops, centerfielders, etc. play 6 to 18 times tops. That sample size makes for a poor evaluation, especially since the eye test inevitably turns into comparasion or worse yet, superlative. I bet somewhere on this board, possibly from you, but also others, I can find someone referencing Jackie Bradley as the "best centerfielder in the "AL, or possibly "in MLB." How much time did these people spend watching Kevin Pillar or Kevin Kiermaier? Have they ever even seen Ender Inciarte or AJ Pollock? And yet somehow, this is the conclusion.

 

Heck I live in Cubs Country and people out here think Dexter Fowler is an elite defensive player based on the eye test. And I am quoting the evidence here "I don't care what the metrics say. I watched every Cub game and saw him make more great plays than any other center fielder~" And THAT is supposed to validate it?

[moonslav59]

I would essentially platoon Rasmus and Young at DH. But since Rasmus is a good defensive player, he would get work in the OF, rotating with Benintendi, Bradley, and Betts from the OF to the DH spot, an intangible benefit of having a DH who can also play the field. I suppose the Red Sox could do the same with Beltran, but Beltran would weaken the Red Sox's run prevention whenever he plays left or right field.

 

Betts and JBJ might need 3-5 days of rest. Beni is a good fielder too. I just don't see the need to "rotate" those guys. Having Rasmus DH is wasting his highest value skill- defense.

 

Beltran's value is offense. That's what we need at DH. Playing Beltran in LF at NL parks is not a big minus.

 

Young could play LF vs LHPs and give the other OF'ers plenty of rest. We already have a fine OF "rotation" with the 4 we have. Holt gives us added depth.

[oldtimer]

Anyone who's been reading what I've posted here since I came to this forum knows that I'm not advocating completely for the "eye test". I'm all for a combination of stats and the eye test. My bigger problem is with those who use WAR as the be-all, end-all. It's not. There's room for both.

 

When there's no longer a need for the eye test there will no longer be a need for scouts. Teams will simply collect data for every player, plug it all into a computer, and BINGO! - out pops comprehensive data which will always be correct.

 

I totally agree. A player can build up a high War rating during a season, get injured toward the end and never be the same. Yet, plug his numbers into the computer and he makes the team for next season. There are many situations like that one. WAR is okay as a pointer, but you still need to take into account what you see from a player on a day to day basis.

[notin]

Betts and JBJ might need 3-5 days of rest. Beni is a good fielder too. I just don't see the need to "rotate" those guys. Having Rasmus DH is wasting his highest value skill- defense.

 

Beltran's value is offense. That's what we need at DH. Playing Beltran in LF at NL parks is not a big minus.

 

Young could play LF vs LHPs and give the other OF'ers plenty of rest. We already have a fine OF "rotation" with the 4 we have. Holt gives us added depth.

 

Rasmus sucks. Why get a DH who can't hit? He wasn't released for being "too awesome"

 

Brandon Moss vs RHP. Young vs LHP And this from a guy who hates platoons..

[moonslav59]

Rasmus sucks. Why get a DH who can't hit? He wasn't released for being "too awesome"

 

Brandon Moss vs RHP. Young vs LHP And this from a guy who hates platoons..

 

It wasn't my idea to sign Rasmus. Even if we needed an OF'er, he wouldn't be near the top of my list.

 

I do like Moss as a platoon DH with Young. His splits vs RHPs are good:

2016: .828 (25 HRs and 50 XBHs in just 301 ABs!)

CAreer: .791

projected to 650 PAs:

vs RHPs: .240 31 89 (.319 OBP/.472 SLG)

vs LHPs: .243 18 82 (.317/.395)

_____________________________________

 

Mitch Moreland may also be an option, although he had flipped splits in 2016.

 

Career:

vs RHPs: .778

 

Pro-rated to 650:

vs RHPs: .258 28 85 (.321/.457)

vs LHPs: .240 17 77 (.295/.378)

_______________________________________

 

How about Matt Joyce as a cheaper option?

vs RHPs:

2016: .884 (pro-rated to 650: .244 31 95)

 

CAreer: .803 vs RHPs (.574 vs LHPs)

@650 PAs: .252 23 77 (.353 OBP/.449 SLG)

 

Edited November 22, 2016 by moonslav59

[Eddy Ballgame]

How about Colby Rasmus? He didn't have a strong season last year with the bat. The Red Sox could maybe sign him to a one year show me contract, reasonably inexpensive. I prefer Rasmus over Beltran for a few reasons. (1) Beltran is much older--his stats declined last year when he was traded to the Rangers. (2) Beltran can't field; Rasmus is a strong defensive player. (3) Rasmus isn't a DH, giving the Red Sox more roster flexibility. The Red Sox could rotate players in and out of the DH spot, keeping guys fresh and healthy.

 

If you're Colby Rasmus, why would you ever consider signing with Boston if you're looking for an opportunity to rebuild your value? They have 3 young outfielders who would ideally play 150 games or so each and a 4th outfielder who should be in there against most lefties.

 

Being a part time DH and 5th outfielder doesn't seem like much of an opportunity. If I'm Rasmus, Boston might be the last place I want to play, and I hope the Sox shoot a hell of a lot higher than Rasmus if they look for a lefty to platoon with Young at DH.

[S5Dewey]

THe idea that scouting would disappear is a slippery sope argument. Not to mention, "eye test" from scouts and "eye test" from fans are two entirely different things. Don't take it personal. That encompasses all of us. But as a fan, you tens to watch one team and see one shortstop, centerfielder, etc. play 150 or so times. You see other shortstops, centerfielders, etc. play 6 to 18 times tops. That sample size makes for a poor evaluation, especially since the eye test inevitably turns into comparasion or worse yet, superlative. I bet somewhere on this board, possibly from you, but also others, I can find someone referencing Jackie Bradley as the "best centerfielder in the "AL, or possibly "in MLB." How much time did these people spend watching Kevin Pillar or Kevin Kiermaier? Have they ever even seen Ender Inciarte or AJ Pollock? And yet somehow, this is the conclusion.

 

Heck I live in Cubs Country and people out here think Dexter Fowler is an elite defensive player based on the eye test. And I am quoting the evidence here "I don't care what the metrics say. I watched every Cub game and saw him make more great plays than any other center fielder~" And THAT is supposed to validate it?

 

My post about doing away with scouts and going to computer-generated rosters was (I thought obviously) an exaggeration. Scouts will never be done away with. While computers measure performance after the fact, scouts often measure the players before the fact. I recently read something from someone within the Sox organization saying that they made "a dozen" calls to Andrew Miller before he signed with the Sox. They pursued him so vigorously because they saw a flaw in his delivery that they felt could be corrected. Had teams been relying solely on computer generated data Miller may very well be out of baseball by now. I wholly recognize that scouts have value.

 

When it comes to fans, I think it's understood that most fans are parochial so, yes, fans often tend to exercise some hyperbole in evaluating their own players. Therefore what they say has to be taken with a grain of salt. However, some of us try to maintain a semblance of objectivity. As much as I like JBJ I thought Pillar would get the GG @ CF in spite of the fact that I only saw him play in a limited number of games. And even then I was wrong.

 

I can't help but question voting for personal awards by writers, fans, or anyone else for the very reason you presented - how many times does one person actually SEE a player perform? And how many plays did that player make during those games that were seen? My guess is not many, so they rely on stats and the few games they've seen the nominees play in the 'eye test' to decide whom to vote for. Serious fans are no different - we rely on stats plus the eye test - and even then we don't agree. When voters in the BBWA or players and/or managers can't agree on who the best player is, how can we expect the fans to?

 

As for me, I come here for (usually) respectful discussion from like-minded Sox fans. It's not about being right or being wrong. It's about garnering different points of view. When I agree with someone.... great. When I don't I fall back on something I was taught by my parents: "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, no matter how much of a crackpot they are". :-)

[Hugh2]

I subscribe to the KISS principle. WAR has too many moving parts, and the more moving parts something has the more likely it is to break down.

 

In this case, Fangraphs should be thanking ME for verifying what they've posted.

 

conversely the more complex a model or equation is the more likely it is to factor in every scenario and possibility to measure a more accurate outcome.

[S5Dewey]

conversely the more complex a model or equation is the more likely it is to factor in every scenario and possibility to measure a more accurate outcome.

 

True enough. When everything works it works well. I've used the analogy before of a pitcher like Randy Johnson - a big guy with a big motion. When everything comes together it gets great results and when it doesn't you end up with Henry Owens.

 

The problem is that the more complex something is the harder it is to find the flaw. A secondary problem is people tend to think that something is more accurate just because it's more complex - but that's a perception thing.

[cp176]

m.mlb.com/video/v1214127083/callis-believes-moncada-is-next-big-leaguer

 

Just thought I would throw this in for kicks. Show me don't tell me but this guy almost makes me second guess the theory. He might be worth hanging on to.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Chris Carter is an interesting candidate for the DH spot (or 1b, moving Hanley to DH).

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2016/11/28/13772290/report-brewers-to-non-tender-chris-carter-arbitration

 

The guy has tremendous power, but strikes out a lot. He walks, nice walk rate last season. You could do worse than Carter's 2016 OPS+ of 114. I wonder how his hit chart would play in Fenway Park? Perhaps the Park would augment his batting average. A two year deal might get it done; he will be paid considerably less than Edwin Encarncion. He won't cost a draft pick. He is young enough at 29.

Edited November 29, 2016 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If you're Colby Rasmus, why would you ever consider signing with Boston if you're looking for an opportunity to rebuild your value? They have 3 young outfielders who would ideally play 150 games or so each and a 4th outfielder who should be in there against most lefties.

 

Being a part time DH and 5th outfielder doesn't seem like much of an opportunity. If I'm Rasmus, Boston might be the last place I want to play, and I hope the Sox shoot a hell of a lot higher than Rasmus if they look for a lefty to platoon with Young at DH.

 

He would be an everyday player against RHP. He would occasionally sit against lefties. He would DH at times but also play the OF, with the other outfielders rotating in and out of the DH spot. I prefer Rasmus to Beltran, who can't play the field and could be ready to fall off a cliff due to his age.

[Bellhorn04]

He would be an everyday player against RHP. He would occasionally sit against lefties. He would DH at times but also play the OF, with the other outfielders rotating in and out of the DH spot. I prefer Rasmus to Beltran, who can't play the field and could be ready to fall off a cliff due to his age.

 

I think Rasmus already fell off the cliff. In his 6 years with Toronto and Houston he averaged 230/297/428.

[moonslav59]

I'd pass on Carter.

[notin]

I'd pass on Carter.

 

I'd pass on most of the FAULT options.

 

I could see going for Encarnacion if the CBA gives the Sox enough financial breathing room. It seems silly to bypass him for fear of the bad years at the end when he is older to take on Beltran whose already in those years.

 

Beyond him, I could see maybe looking at a lefty hitter to platoon with Young such as Brandon Moss. Adam Lind is another who fits the bill, but I'm not a big fan. Logan Morrison does too, and he has good career numbers at Fenway, but overall his career has really been a colossal disappointment. I'm not even sure he's an upgrade over Shaw...

[moonslav59]

I'd pass on most of the FAULT options.

 

I could see going for Encarnacion if the CBA gives the Sox enough financial breathing room. It seems silly to bypass him for fear of the bad years at the end when he is older to take on Beltran whose already in those years.

 

Beyond him, I could see maybe looking at a lefty hitter to platoon with Young such as Brandon Moss. Adam Lind is another who fits the bill, but I'm not a big fan. Logan Morrison does too, and he has good career numbers at Fenway, but overall his career has really been a colossal disappointment. I'm not even sure he's an upgrade over Shaw...

 

I think Moss might work out. (.791 career vs RHPs but .828 in 2016) If you pro-rate his 2016 numbers vs RHPs to 650 PAs:

 

.223 47 98 (.303 OBP)

 

Kinda like Chris Carter, but Carter can hit both sides about like that:

 

2016 prorated to 650

 

vs RHPs: .222 38 84 (.316 OBP)

vs LHPs: .224 48 125 (.338 OBP)

 

Not sure why you don't like Lind vs righties. He's got an .849 OPS career and can play 1B or LF. His .589 OPS vs LHPs is atrocious!

 

Morrison's .762 career splits vs RHPs is not what we need. He's 29, so maybe there's a chance of upside.

 

What are your thoughts on these guys?

 

1B/3B P Alvarez .801 vs RHPs

1B/OF Moreland .778 career vs RHPs

1B LaRoche .831

1B Morneau .886 (.717 in 2016)

 

or just go with...

 

Sandoval .835 vs RHPs (.744 in 2015)

 

and try to find a 1 year 3Bman.

Edited November 29, 2016 by moonslav59

[Spudboy]

Lol.

 

So now we are considering signing a .220 hitter with a .300 OBP to be a DH for the Sox?

 

Oye.

 

And I don't care for the idea of a platoon DH.

[moonslav59]

Lol.

 

So now we are considering signing a .220 hitter with a .300 OBP to be a DH for the Sox?

 

Oye.

 

And I don't care for the idea of a platoon DH.

 

We'd all love EE, but at what cost? How will getting what we want affect who we can keep or acquire later?

 

BTW, some of the guys mentioned have less power and higher OBPs.

[OH FOY]

I like Lind, has a career .294 avg. in Fenway, .283 in Camden Yards, .287 New Yankee Stadium, .261 in Tampa, .279 in Toronto.

Proven AL East guy.

[mvp 78]

Lol.

 

So now we are considering signing a .220 hitter with a .300 OBP to be a DH for the Sox?

 

Oye.

 

And I don't care for the idea of a platoon DH.

 

If they want to platoon at DH, wouldn't they just go with in house options like Young, Shaw, Sandoval and other guys on the roster with split issues?

[mvp 78]

I like Lind, has a career .294 avg. in Fenway, .283 in Camden Yards, .287 New Yankee Stadium, .261 in Tampa, .279 in Toronto.

Proven AL East guy.

 

This stuff always regresses over time. You don't grab a guy just because he's a "Sox killer." Whatsup Carl Crawford!

[Spudboy]

If they want to platoon at DH, wouldn't they just go with in house options like Young, Shaw, Sandoval and other guys on the roster with split issues?

 

Sounds more reasonable than getting another flawed hitter.

[mvp 78]

sounds more reasonable than shelling out even more money on yet another flawed hitter.

 

ftfy.

[moonslav59]

If they want to platoon at DH, wouldn't they just go with in house options like Young, Shaw, Sandoval and other guys on the roster with split issues?

 

I think a Pablo-Young DH platoon might work out well, but it forces 3B to be shared by just Shaw, Holt and Hernandez... not pretty.

 

Shaw is a very good defensive 1Bman, so I don't see him DH'ing while HanRam plays 1B.

 

I could see Young DH 55 games vs LH'd starters, Pablo vs 90 RH'd starters and HanRam vs 17 RH'd starters to get some rest without getting as many whole days off. On those days, Shaw plays 1B, and maybe Pablo plays a little 3B.

 

The problem with 3B is that all of them bat left-handed. It would be nice if one could hit lefties well.

[S5Dewey]

 

Shaw is a very good defensive 1Bman, so I don't see him DH'ing while HanRam plays 1B.

 

The problem with that scenario is that Sam Travis may be a better player than Travis Shaw on both sides of the ball. Given those choices I'd as soon see T. Shaw @ 1B and Hanley at DH. But obviously that's not an optimal scenario.

 

Does anyone know what players like Shaw (Ok, Shaw in particular) do over the winter? AFL? Winter ball anyplace?

[mvp 78]

The problem with that scenario is that Sam Travis may be a better player than Travis Shaw on both sides of the ball. Given those choices I'd as soon see T. Shaw @ 1B and Hanley at DH. But obviously that's not an optimal scenario.

 

Does anyone know what players like Shaw (Ok, Shaw in particular) do over the winter? AFL? Winter ball anyplace?

 

Shaw isn't eligible for the AFL. Last year he played 1 game in Puerto Rico.

 

AFL Rules:

Eligibility Rules

The eligibility rules to play in the AFL are simple.

 

The roster size is 30 players per team.

 

Each Major League organization is required to provide six players subject to the following requirements:

 

All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible, provided the players are on at least a Double-A level roster no later than Aug. 1.

One player below the Double-A level is allowed per Major League team.

One foreign player is allowed, as long as the player does not reside in a country that participates in winter ball, as part of the Caribbean Confederation or the Australian winter league.

No players with more than one year of credited Major League service as of August 31 are eligible, except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.

To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons.

[S5Dewey]

Shaw isn't eligible for the AFL. Last year he played 1 game in Puerto Rico.

 

AFL Rules:

Eligibility Rules

The eligibility rules to play in the AFL are simple.

 

The roster size is 30 players per team.

 

Each Major League organization is required to provide six players subject to the following requirements:

 

All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible, provided the players are on at least a Double-A level roster no later than Aug. 1.

One player below the Double-A level is allowed per Major League team.

One foreign player is allowed, as long as the player does not reside in a country that participates in winter ball, as part of the Caribbean Confederation or the Australian winter league.

No players with more than one year of credited Major League service as of August 31 are eligible, except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.

To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons.

 

Wow. I had no idea the AFL was that strict about who can play. Thanks.

[mvp 78]

Wow. I had no idea the AFL was that strict about who can play. Thanks.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/club.jsp?team_id=542

 

Sox sent Dubon, Kopech, Ball, Beeks, Jamie Callahan and Danny Mars. I haven't heard of Callahan or Mars.

[harmony]

From Monday evening's FanGraphs chat:

 

EbenezerBatflip

9:44 Carson Smith was a weapon for SEA then injured in BOS, expectations for him in 2017?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:44 The key will be him getting healthy

Paul Swydan

9:45 Well he's going to miss a big chunk of the season, if not all of it, recovering from Tommy John. I'm hopeful for him when he comes back though.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:45 Basically none.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-after-dark-chat-112916/

 

Also:

EbenezerBatflip

9:30 Expectations for Benintendi in 2017? Is he really the left handed Mookie?

Paul Swydan

9:30 Left-handed Mookie might be a bit much, but I expect him to be a 3-4 WAR player

 

EbenezerBatflip

10:02 Dombrowski has already proven he is more likely to trade younger prospects further away from making an impact, should Sox fans expect to see Devers, Kopech, Groome to go in a trade? I can't imagine Dombro really wants to let those bluechips burn a hole in his pocket for the next 3-5 yearsReactReact

Paul Swydan

10:03 Are they really 3-5 years away though? Devers reached High-A at 19 and held his own. Kopech did the same at age 20.

10:04 I can see Dombrowski any and everyone, but I'd be surprised if he traded Devers before Moncada establishes himself as the starting third baseman.

Jeff Zimmerman

10:04 Dombrowski burns through the 45 or less prospects. I see him generally keeping the studs. They could trade Hernandez and probably get an OK bullpen arm.

Edited November 30, 2016 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski burns through the 45 or less prospects. I see him generally keeping the studs. They could trade Hernandez and probably get an OK bullpen arm.

 

I think they could get a better arm for Holt.

 

Now that our DH only DH is gone, I don't see Holt's flexibility as being as high a need as it was with Papi on the 25 man roster.

 

Right now, I see Holt's depth chart slots as such:

 

2B: maybe second, but Moncada or Hernandez could probably do just as well.

3B: maybe third behind Shaw-Pablo, but again, Moncada/Hernandez could do just as well.

SS: maybe third or fourth behind Hernandez and maybe Marrero/Dubon.

1B: maybe fourth or fifth behind Shaw, Pablo, Travis and Swihart?

OF: maybe tied with Swihart as the fifth OF'er behind Young.

 

Surely, Holt would start for some teams or be their second option at multiple positions.

 

I'd hate to lose the flex he brings to a roster, but I see his value for another team as being higher than with us. That's usually a good reason for a trade to be made.