Looking ahead to 2017

[sk7326]

there has been some chatter about Sonny as well - it seems likely that something must have been wrong with him. He went from basically a clout to an out in a very short period of time. DD knows something about pitchers it seems. It should be interesting.

 

Forearm problems = uh oh

[Nick]

I thought we were adding couple bullpen pieces and punt til July?

 

I'm opposed to giving up Moncada, Devers, Kopech, Gromes, Swihart.

[southpaw777]

I agree, but we have yet to see how he handles a slump.

 

Im really looking forward to seeing a full season from Beni and how he handles things. From everything ive seen/heard, which is only about 2.5 years worth, I have faith that there will be short slumps and. 300ba...

[southpaw777]

I thought we were adding couple bullpen pieces and punt til July?

 

I'm opposed to giving up Moncada, Devers, Kopech, Gromes, Swihart.

 

For me, Swihart can go if the return is good. Maybe Devers too. Moncada Groome and Kopech go nowhere right now...

[moonslav59]

For me, Swihart can go if the return is good. Maybe Devers too. Moncada Groome and Kopech go nowhere right now...

 

Devers took a big step forward defensively. We'll have to "give to get", so I think we may have to part with JBJ, Moncada, ERod or Kopech to get someone like Quintana or Sale.

[mvp 78]

I'd rather hold onto Devers than Moncada right now.

[oldtimer]

Devers took a big step forward defensively. We'll have to "give to get", so I think we may have to part with JBJ, Moncada, ERod or Kopech to get someone like Quintana or Sale.

 

I wouldn't trade our two best young starting pitchers/prospects for anyone at this point. I don't include Gromes as he is a year away at least.

 

As far as JBJ is concerned, he is just a step away from being an above average CF. He needs to modify his swing to make more consistent contact. I would be very reluctant to trade away an above average CF.

 

Moncada's value has probably decreased. I doubt the White Sox would part with one of their best starters without a pot load of gold being offered. I just don't like the sound of the trades you envision.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather hold onto Devers than Moncada right now.

 

I'm thinking the same, but when you figure Moncada probably has higher trade value, it almost begs the question.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't trade our two best young starting pitchers/prospects for anyone at this point. I don't include Gromes as he is a year away at least.

 

As far as JBJ is concerned, he is just a step away from being an above average CF. He needs to modify his swing to make more consistent contact. I would be very reluctant to trade away an above average CF.

 

Moncada's value has probably decreased. I doubt the White Sox would part with one of their best starters without a pot load of gold being offered. I just don't like the sound of the trades you envision.

 

I said ERod or Kopech not both, but I hear you. Either of those two could become the next Quintana or Sale.

[S5Dewey]

 

As far as JBJ is concerned, he is just a step away from being an above average CF. He needs to modify his swing to make more consistent contact. I would be very reluctant to trade away an above average CF.

 

 

Sometimes I think people post things like this just to get a rise out of me. JBJ is NOT just a step away from being an above average CF. He's one of the best CF'ers in baseball and a GG candidate. His downside - if you can call this a downside - is that his OPS has "only" been above .800 for the past two seasons.

 

Unfortunately when we talk about a player what we are focusing on is their offense, and their defense is relegated to being of lesser value. That's why we think JBJ isn't as good as he really is and it's why Bogaerts isn't as good as we think he is. For me, I see JBJ and Bogaerts value to the team as being about equal.

 

I realize that this happens because we're inundated with offensive stats that are easy to understand, but as serious baseball fans we should be able to look beyond that. We should be able to understand that even though defense isn't as quantifiable or as easy to understand there's (at least) as much value in defense as in offense and express ourselves accordingly.

[Bellhorn04]

Sometimes I think people post things like this just to get a rise out of me. JBJ is NOT just a step away from being an above average CF. He's one of the best CF'ers in baseball and a GG candidate. His downside - if you can call this a downside - is that his OPS has "only" been above .800 for the past two seasons.

 

Unfortunately when we talk about a player what we are focusing on is their offense, and their defense is relegated to being of lesser value. That's why we think JBJ isn't as good as he really is and it's why Bogaerts isn't as good as we think he is. For me, I see JBJ and Bogaerts value to the team as being about equal.

 

I realize that this happens because we're inundated with offensive stats that are easy to understand, but as serious baseball fans we should be able to look beyond that. We should be able to understand that even though defense isn't as quantifiable or as easy to understand there's (at least) as much value in defense as in offense and express ourselves accordingly.

 

JBJ had a hefty 5.3 WAR in 2016.

 

WAR is your friend, Dewey.

[Bellhorn04]

Grrrrr.

 

What? The defensive metrics solidified your arguments for both Iggy and JBJ.

[S5Dewey]

JBJ had a hefty 5.3 WAR in 2016.

 

WAR is your friend, Dewey.

 

Bogaerts had a WAR in 2016 of 3.7. So now take any of these proposed trades that we're seeing here and substitute Bogaerts name for Bradley's and see what the reaction would be. My guess is that there would be a huge outcry of "We're OVERPAYING!". "If we're giving up Bogaerts they're not getting [Player A] OR [Player B!]".

 

My point here again (and again and again ) is that as fans we tend to put too much value on a player's offense and not enough on his defense.

[S5Dewey]

What? The defensive metrics solidified your arguments for both Iggy and JBJ.

 

I hate WAR. I hate it even when it proves me right! LOL

[moonslav59]

Sometimes I think people post things like this just to get a rise out of me. JBJ is NOT just a step away from being an above average CF. He's one of the best CF'ers in baseball and a GG candidate. His downside - if you can call this a downside - is that his OPS has "only" been above .800 for the past two seasons.

 

Unfortunately when we talk about a player what we are focusing on is their offense, and their defense is relegated to being of lesser value. That's why we think JBJ isn't as good as he really is and it's why Bogaerts isn't as good as we think he is. For me, I see JBJ and Bogaerts value to the team as being about equal.

 

I realize that this happens because we're inundated with offensive stats that are easy to understand, but as serious baseball fans we should be able to look beyond that. We should be able to understand that even though defense isn't as quantifiable or as easy to understand there's (at least) as much value in defense as in offense and express ourselves accordingly.

 

CF, like SS, is a very important defensive position. To me, JBJ is the best FT defensive CF'er I've seen with the Sox since Freddy Lynn.

 

JBJ is clearly one of baseball's best CF'ers right now. Its' not even close.

 

Looking at the 68 OF'ers with 850+ PAs since 2015, here's how JBJ places. OF'ers not just CF'ers!

 

OPS

.991 Trout

.964 Harper

.925 Cruz

.900 Bryant

.892 JD Martinez

.879 Braun

.876 Cespedes

.871 Bautista

.863 Blackmon

.861 Betts

.859 CarGo

.834 JBJ

.830 CBeltran

 

He's 21st in xRC+ at 119.

 

12th and 21st out of 68 are clearly "above average" on offense alone.

 

Even if you go back to include his rough start to his career, he still places 68th out of 120 OF'ers with 1000+ PAs. When you add in his defense and excellent base running, he's been above average overall.

 

Fangraphs' value page has JBJ as the 12th best defensive OF'er since 2013.

 

Since 2015, he places 9th out of 68 on defense, 30th out of 68 in base running and 26th in batting. In all areas hes' above average or better.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

UZR/150 since 2013 (24 players with 2500+ innings):

 

CF

JBJ 8th at 9.7

 

SS

Bogey 13th at -1.0

 

Since 2015 (1500+ innings):

SS

Bogey 14th out of 22 at -0.9

CF

JBJ 9th out of 20 at +4.8

 

OPS

SS

Bogey 3rd out of 27 at .789

CF

JBJ 5th out of 28 at .837 (Betts is 4th but is in RF now)

 

 

WAR

SS

Bogey 3rd out of 27 at 9.0

CF

JBJ 10th out of 28 at 7.3

[sk7326]

Bogaerts had a WAR in 2016 of 3.7. So now take any of these proposed trades that we're seeing here and substitute Bogaerts name for Bradley's and see what the reaction would be. My guess is that there would be a huge outcry of "We're OVERPAYING!". "If we're giving up Bogaerts they're not getting [Player A] OR [Player B!]".

 

My point here again (and again and again ) is that as fans we tend to put too much value on a player's offense and not enough on his defense.

 

Three years is a lot in the development curve

[oldtimer]

Sometimes I think people post things like this just to get a rise out of me. JBJ is NOT just a step away from being an above average CF. He's one of the best CF'ers in baseball and a GG candidate. His downside - if you can call this a downside - is that his OPS has "only" been above .800 for the past two seasons.

 

Unfortunately when we talk about a player what we are focusing on is their offense, and their defense is relegated to being of lesser value. That's why we think JBJ isn't as good as he really is and it's why Bogaerts isn't as good as we think he is. For me, I see JBJ and Bogaerts value to the team as being about equal.

 

I realize that this happens because we're inundated with offensive stats that are easy to understand, but as serious baseball fans we should be able to look beyond that. We should be able to understand that even though defense isn't as quantifiable or as easy to understand there's (at least) as much value in defense as in offense and express ourselves accordingly.

 

JBJ had an outstanding first half offensively and then nose dived in the second half. My point is that he needs to pull out of that offensive slump by making the necessary adjustments. Clearly he is a fine defensive outfielder but the sum total of his effort during the second half is what is worrisome. Putting together offense and defense in the second half, i see his effort as average but I do see he has the ability to be well above average. I do not want to trade him as others seem to be advocating.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody wants to trade JBJ, I'm quite sure. The thinking is that to have any hope of obtaining a pitcher like Sale, we're going to have to give up some cheap controlled proven talent, and JBJ is the most likely candidate.

[Kimmi]

JBJ had a hefty 5.3 WAR in 2016.

 

WAR is your friend, Dewey.

 

Ha ha. I was going to post something very similar.

 

For Dewey, Fangraphs has JBJ at 4.8 WAR, which according to their rating system, puts him in the "All Star" range.

 

WAR really is your friend. It gives defense the credit it deserves.

[Dojji]

WAR, what is it good for?

[S5Dewey]

I subscribe to the KISS principle. WAR has too many moving parts, and the more moving parts something has the more likely it is to break down.

 

In this case, Fangraphs should be thanking ME for verifying what they've posted.

[notin]

I subscribe to the KISS principle. WAR has too many moving parts, and the more moving parts something has the more likely it is to break down.

 

 

 

In this case, Fangraphs should be thanking ME for verifying what they've posted.

 

A car has more moving parts than a tricycle but I bet you don't commute on the latter.

 

The problem with "eye test" defense is you only see a small sample from the other players and too often it turns into "I saw that guy make an error. " Well that and it's almost 100% subjective...

[Dojji]

Nothing has more moving parts than an unsubstantiated assumption.

[notin]

Nothing has more moving parts than an unsubstantiated assumption.

 

And the "eye test " has a tendency to turn into the "reputation test" very quickly. ..

[Fan_since_Boggs]

How about Colby Rasmus? He didn't have a strong season last year with the bat. The Red Sox could maybe sign him to a one year show me contract, reasonably inexpensive. I prefer Rasmus over Beltran for a few reasons. (1) Beltran is much older--his stats declined last year when he was traded to the Rangers. (2) Beltran can't field; Rasmus is a strong defensive player. (3) Rasmus isn't a DH, giving the Red Sox more roster flexibility. The Red Sox could rotate players in and out of the DH spot, keeping guys fresh and healthy.

[S5Dewey]

A car has more moving parts than a tricycle but I bet you don't commute on the latter.

 

The problem with "eye test" defense is you only see a small sample from the other players and too often it turns into "I saw that guy make an error. " Well that and it's almost 100% subjective...

 

Anyone who's been reading what I've posted here since I came to this forum knows that I'm not advocating completely for the "eye test". I'm all for a combination of stats and the eye test. My bigger problem is with those who use WAR as the be-all, end-all. It's not. There's room for both.

 

When there's no longer a need for the eye test there will no longer be a need for scouts. Teams will simply collect data for every player, plug it all into a computer, and BINGO! - out pops comprehensive data which will always be correct.

[moonslav59]

How about Colby Rasmus? He didn't have a strong season last year with the bat. The Red Sox could maybe sign him to a one year show me contract, reasonably inexpensive. I prefer Rasmus over Beltran for a few reasons. (1) Beltran is much older--his stats declined last year when he was traded to the Rangers. (2) Beltran can't field; Rasmus is a strong defensive player. (3) Rasmus isn't a DH, giving the Red Sox more roster flexibility. The Red Sox could rotate players in and out of the DH spot, keeping guys fresh and healthy.

 

Our strongest area is the OF. Young needs to play vs LHPs. I suppose he could DH.

 

If we really want to add a player that is not a DH, I suggest a 3Bman. That's the weakest 2017 position.

 

[sk7326]

I subscribe to the KISS principle. WAR has too many moving parts, and the more moving parts something has the more likely it is to break down.

 

In this case, Fangraphs should be thanking ME for verifying what they've posted.

 

Depends on what you want - after all if you are looking at WAR to be a comprehensive "who's the best" measure it is destined to fail.

 

For what any WAR measure is - a normalized sum of everything measurable a player does - it's good. Like any measure, you want consistency and that it is measuring what it is trying to measure. WAR (regardless of flavor - and teams use their own) fits the bill - much moreso than say RBIs.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Young needs to play vs LHPs. I suppose he could DH.

 

 

I would essentially platoon Rasmus and Young at DH. But since Rasmus is a good defensive player, he would get work in the OF, rotating with Benintendi, Bradley, and Betts from the OF to the DH spot, an intangible benefit of having a DH who can also play the field. I suppose the Red Sox could do the same with Beltran, but Beltran would weaken the Red Sox's run prevention whenever he plays left or right field.