Looking ahead to 2017

[S5Dewey]

I do have to chuckle a bit at the salary escalation, even of some of it is conjecture right now.

 

It reminds me of the conundrum the owners have regarding PED users. Just as they (allegedly) don't want to encourage PED usage they also don't want to pay the escalating salaries. They just know that if they don't sign the PED users or pay the escalating salaries it someone else will. No honor among thieves, I guess.

 

Just be thankful that there's all kinds of (our) money floating around out there so the players and owners can all become millionaires several times over.

[moonslav59]

Are we forgetting that not everyone ages as well as David Ortiz? $25M seems like an awful lot for a 40 yr DH, especially when you remember that The Great David Ortiz {with no disrespect intended} never had a year when he made more than $16M.

 

I never said I was for getting Votto, but if they'd take Pablo, I'd listen.

[moonslav59]

I do have to chuckle a bit at the salary escalation, even of some of it is conjecture right now.

 

It reminds me of the conundrum the owners have regarding PED users. Just as they (allegedly) don't want to encourage PED usage they also don't want to pay the escalating salaries. They just know that if they don't sign the PED users or pay the escalating salaries it someone else will. No honor among thieves, I guess.

 

Just be thankful that there's all kinds of (our) money floating around out there so the players and owners can all become millionaires several times over.

 

I'm thinking the luxury tax limit might end up over $210M. That will help the players, but owners will still make megmillions.

[Dojji]

I do have to chuckle a bit at the salary escalation, even of some of it is conjecture right now.

 

It reminds me of the conundrum the owners have regarding PED users. Just as they (allegedly) don't want to encourage PED usage they also don't want to pay the escalating salaries. They just know that if they don't sign the PED users or pay the escalating salaries it someone else will. No honor among thieves, I guess.

 

Just be thankful that there's all kinds of (our) money floating around out there so the players and owners can all become millionaires several times over.

 

You're putting the cart before the horse a bit. All that money floating around is why salaries are inflating, not the other way around. If MLB took a big hit to revenue like it did after the strikes, salaries would not keep spiking. It's the fact that MLB has made more and ever more money every year that keeps the players' share of that revenue also increasing.

 

For all I care MLB players deserve as big a share of the money pie as they can possibly get. If you think one moment tickets or concessions are based around a need to pay salaries, then I'm prepared to guess you've probably never run a business. Teams charge for tickets and concessions exactly what they think they can get away with, no less, they spend a lot of money on financial analyists to determine the peak revenue point and that point will not change based solely on what the salary is (unless it changes demand projections or something).

 

Anyway, teams saving money on salary won't return any money to our pockets, they'll still charge exactly what they think they can get away with no matter how cheap the salary is, so from my perspective, I'm MLBPA all the way, go gettem for all they got boys, at that point it really, truly is not my money.

Edited October 13, 2016 by Dojji

[Dojji]

Can I just say this? I don't want Joey Votto. I think he's exactly the wrong player to bring in for the same reason I'm lukewarm on Encarnacion. I want a player that's either young, or has been to the top, one of the two. That's why I'm more interested in Morales and Moustakas than I am in Encarnacion and Frazier even though the latter two are better players. Encarnacion and Moustakas helped their team win a WS. Recently.

 

We just suffered a HUGE drain in our memory banks as a team, losing the guy with the most playoff and WS experience of anyone on the team, possibly among the most of anyone in MLB. Don't underestimate the significance of that loss, it's at least as great as our loss of raw offensive numbers. Our World Series veterans right now are pretty much Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts and Koji, and that's it. And we might lose Koji too this offseason. As much as we want good on field numbers, we also need as much of that experience back as we can possibly get.

 

Unless EE wins it all with the Jays this year, signing the guy won't make up that deficit in championship cred. That sort of thing concerns me from a continuity standpoint. If we lose any more of our champions, when we get to the postseason again the team will have to feel their way around again like they did in 03. The franchise will have to more or less start over. In fact I kinda worry that that was part of the problem this postseason -- we need to figure out who the leaders are in the new generation and I don't think we're quite there yet. I don't think that's a great way to get back to the top of the world anytime soon.

 

The big thing is playoff experience, the Royals guys are just my first idea of where to find it. Beyond improving on the field, I would really like an infusion of leadership into this team, I think were going to be hurting for the lack of it if we don't.

Edited October 13, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

Can I just say this? I don't want Joey Votto. I think he's exactly the wrong player to bring in for the same reason I'm lukewarm on Encarnacion. I want a player that's either young, or has been to the top, one of the two. That's why I'm more interested in Morales and Moustakas than I am in Encarnacion and Frazier even though the latter two are better players. Encarnacion and Moustakas helped their team win a WS. Recently.

 

We just suffered a HUGE drain in our memory banks as a team, losing the guy with the most playoff and WS experience of anyone on the team, possibly among the most of anyone in MLB. Don't underestimate the significance of that loss, it's at least as great as our loss of raw offensive numbers. Our World Series veterans right now are pretty much Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts and Koji, and that's it. And we might lose Koji too this offseason. As much as we want good on field numbers, we also need as much of that experience back as we can possibly get.

 

Unless EE wins it all with the Jays this year, signing the guy won't make up that deficit in championship cred. That sort of thing concerns me from a continuity standpoint. If we lose any more of our champions, when we get to the postseason again the team will have to feel their way around again like they did in 03. The franchise will have to more or less start over. In fact I kinda worry that that was part of the problem this postseason -- we need to figure out who the leaders are in the new generation and I don't think we're quite there yet. I don't think that's a great way to get back to the top of the world anytime soon.

 

The big thing is playoff experience, the Royals guys are just my first idea of where to find it. Beyond improving on the field, I would really like an infusion of leadership into this team, I think were going to be hurting for the lack of it if we don't.

 

I'd rather go young as well, but finding an aged vet for a 1 or 2 year deal to "bridge" to the youth movement is okay with me.

 

There's not much on the FA market I'd like to outbid others for, but I think we'll sign someone (RP'er? 3B? DH/1B?). I'm thinking our biggest splash may be in trade. It's hard to know who is out there at this early point, but I'm sure names will be flying soon enough.

 

Not getting past the first round of the playoffs and not only losing Papi but also possibly Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa could create an atmosphere of desperation. I hope not, but I do think we can make a few measured and strategic moves to minimize these loses while not blocking the way for a further youth movement.

 

Our oldest players on the roster this year were:

 

41 Uehara

40 Ortiz

36 Ziegler

35 Hanigan

34 Hill

32 Ramirez, Pedroia, Young

 

Amazingly, in 2017, we could have a 33 year old as our oldest player!

 

 

[S5Dewey]

You're putting the cart before the horse a bit. All that money floating around is why salaries are inflating, not the other way around. If MLB took a big hit to revenue like it did after the strikes, salaries would not keep spiking. It's the fact that MLB has made more and ever more money every year that keeps the players' share of that revenue also increasing.

 

For all I care MLB players deserve as big a share of the money pie as they can possibly get. If you think one moment tickets or concessions are based around a need to pay salaries, then I'm prepared to guess you've probably never run a business. Teams charge for tickets and concessions exactly what they think they can get away with, no less, they spend a lot of money on financial analyists to determine the peak revenue point and that point will not change based solely on what the salary is (unless it changes demand projections or something).

 

Anyway, teams saving money on salary won't return any money to our pockets, they'll still charge exactly what they think they can get away with no matter how cheap the salary is, so from my perspective, I'm MLBPA all the way, go gettem for all they got boys, at that point it really, truly is not my money.

 

Hey, we're completely in agreement here. Baseball is like any other product in that the owners/sellers will charge whatever the market will bear and right now the market is bearing $100+ for the best seats in Fenway just as the market is bearing prices of $1000+ in Yankee Stadium. My only point was that the owners would prefer that salaries hadn't escalated the way they did so they could pocket more money for themselves. OTOH, the owners must somewhat 'like' the publicity the player's salaries get because it gives the owners public justification for the ticket prices.

 

I'm with you all the way - the players should definitely get their share of all that money, and there IS a lot of money out there.

[moonslav59]

Look at what Oprah and other entertainers get.

 

I do think the players would be better served if the money was more evenly distributed, but stardom rewards those who bring the fans to the park and TV sets.

[mvp 78]

The big thing is playoff experience, the Royals guys are just my first idea of where to find it. Beyond improving on the field, I would really like an infusion of leadership into this team, I think were going to be hurting for the lack of it if we don't.

 

Of course they are. After one WS run, they're the mark of true excellence...

[Spudboy]

Are we forgetting that not everyone ages as well as David Ortiz? $25M seems like an awful lot for a 40 yr DH, especially when you remember that The Great David Ortiz {with no disrespect intended} never had a year when he made more than $16M.

 

Stop with the logic.

 

This is an issue to be decided on emotion!

 

Seriously, $25. mil is a risk for any player at any age. Projecting the deal to be "worth it" 7 years from now at age 40 is f***ing nuts.

 

A-Roid was probably one of the beat players of all time. He was paid that kind of money ( still is!!! ).

 

Look how that payed off.

[Nick]

Red Sox has the highest average ticket price in the majors. The difference between the luxury tax threshhold and the team revenue is widening 'bigly'. I would not be surprised if the luxury tax limit goes north of $210M. (put it another way, major league payroll component is now significantly lower percentage of total revenue).

 

I will ban myself from this site (volunatarily), if we do not do one of following two things.

 

1) go after EE very hard (if we don't get him, there will be back drop story on how another team just out spent us) or

2) make a major trade either for top of the line SP or an All Star caliber position player.

 

Sox is a big market team. DD ain't going to stand pat by moving Hanley to DH and filling in corner IF positions on "a hope and a prayer".

 

I would make a trade for Sales for JBJ and slew of youngsters not named Moncada, Devers, Kopech and Gromes. And then sign EE.

Edited October 13, 2016 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox has the highest average ticket price in the majors. The difference between the luxury tax threshhold and the team revenue is widening 'bigly'. I would not be surprised if the luxury tax limit goes north of $210M. (put it another way, major league payroll component is now significantly lower percentage of total revenue).

 

North of $210M sounds a little steep. The last increase was from $178M to $189M.

[Nick]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-evolving-luxury-tax/

 

Here's a good article on widening gap

[mvp 78]

North of $210M sounds a little steep. The last increase was from $178M to $189M.

 

I've seen that $210 projected elsewhere too.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox has the highest average ticket price in the majors. The difference between the luxury tax threshhold and the team revenue is widening 'bigly'. I would not be surprised if the luxury tax limit goes north of $210M. (put it another way, major league payroll component is now significantly lower percentage of total revenue).

 

I will ban myself from this site (volunatarily), if we do not do one of following two things.

 

1) go after EE very hard (if we don't get him, there will be back drop story on how another team just out spent us) or

2) make a major trade either for top of the line SP or an All Star caliber position player.

 

Sox is a big market team. DD ain't going to stand pat by moving Hanley to DH and filling in corner IF positions on "a hope and a prayer".

 

I would make a trade for Sales for JBJ and slew of youngsters not named Moncada, Devers, Kopech and Gromes. And then sign EE.

 

I'd get a short term bat that is very good.

 

I'd get 2 very good RP'ers.

 

I'd try to upgrade our rotation at the top, not the middle or bottom. That would be the one big move I'd try.

 

All these ideas combined will cost us money and prospects through trade.

 

Tough decisions will have to be made:

 

Decide who goes-

 

Moncada or Devers (I doubt we have the luxury to keep both.)

 

Swihart, Vazquez or Leon (The demand for decent catchers is too high for us to keep 3.)

 

We may have to part with a SP'er or Kopech plus Owens and Johnson as part of a big package to get an ace or strong #2 type SP'er.

 

I know I've beaten the dead horse on EE, so I won't comment on that right now.

 

[Nick]

What's our starting lineup if we do nothing?

 

C Sandy

1B Hanley

2B Pedey

SS Xander

3B Holt

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH Young

C Vasquez Utility Swihart, Rodriquez, Shaw

SP Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright, Pomeranz, Clay B Pen Kimbrel, Kelly, Smith, Barnes, Hembree, Ross, Scott.

 

can this 25 man roster win the division if everyone stays healthy?

Edited October 13, 2016 by Nick

[mvp 78]

What's our starting lineup if we do nothing?

 

C Sandy

1B Hanley

2B Pedey

SS Xander

3B Holt

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH Young

C Vasquez Utility Swihart, Rodriquez, Shaw

SP Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright, Pomeranz, Clay B Pen Kimbrel, Kelly, Smith, Barnes, Hembree, Ross, Scott.

 

can this 25 man roster win the division if everyone stays healthy?

 

No, because it's a 26 man roster.

[moonslav59]

No, because it's a 26 man roster.

 

Plus, it's Hernandez not Rodriguez.

[moonslav59]

What's our starting lineup if we do nothing?

 

C Sandy

1B Hanley

2B Pedey

SS Xander

3B Holt

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH Young

C Vasquez Utility Swihart, Rodriquez, Shaw

SP Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright, Pomeranz, Clay B Pen Kimbrel, Kelly, Smith, Barnes, Hembree, Ross, Scott.

 

can this 25 man roster win the division if everyone stays healthy?

 

Put Scott in AAA and change Rodriguez to Hernandez and I think the roster, as is, would compete for the division lead, but they would not be favorites.

 

If we add a top RP'er, a decent RP'er and a big bat or top starting pitcher, I think we could be faves again.

[mvp 78]

Put Scott in AAA and change Rodriguez to Hernandez and I think the roster, as is, would compete for the division lead, but they would not be favorites.

 

If we add a top RP'er, a decent RP'er and a big bat or top starting pitcher, I think we could be faves again.

 

Would you go with a 6 man rotation too?

[Spudboy]

How can we sit here in 2016 and project that the Sox can or will win the AL East when we do not know what other teams will look like?

 

One simple example is what will the Jays do about Joey Batts and EE?

 

Are the four other team going to stand pat?

 

I kind of doubt it.

[moonslav59]

Would you go with a 6 man rotation too?

 

I think he is just listing the 6 starters, and we can assume one will be the long relief/spot starter on the 25 man roster.

[moonslav59]

How can we sit here in 2016 and project that the Sox can or will win the AL East when we do not know what other teams will look like?

 

One simple example is what will the Jays do about Joey Batts and EE?

 

Are the four other team going to stand pat?

 

I kind of doubt it.

 

I think we're looking at rosters as they currently are, but good point. If TOR loses EE and "Batts", then maybe we'd be faves over them. If BAL loses Weiters and others, so to with them.

[mvp 78]

How can we sit here in 2016 and project that the Sox can or will win the AL East when we do not know what other teams will look like?

 

One simple example is what will the Jays do about Joey Batts and EE?

 

Are the four other team going to stand pat?

 

I kind of doubt it.

 

They keep EE and dump Bats.

 

The Rays trade Archer.

 

The O's grab some high power guys on short term contracts.

 

The Yanks make a few panic moves when Gary Sanchez declares that he wants to retire because NYC smells like garbage.

[Spudboy]

They keep EE and dump Bats.

 

The Rays trade Archer.

 

The O's grab some high power guys on short term contracts.

 

The Yanks make a few panic moves when Gary Sanchez declares that he wants to retire because NYC smells like garbage.

 

lulz.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Why is it so clear he'd refuse a trade to a winning team?

 

Here's one article. There are others. He loves it there, but anything can happen I guess.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/158877538-joey-votto-wont-waive-trade-clause-with-reds.amp.html?client=safari

[oldtimer]

No, because it's a 26 man roster.

 

I'd say no for several reasons. We didn't win it this year with a better lineup (Ortiz). We will likely face a number of injuries, as we do most years. The Yankees will be on the ascent and the Blue Jays despite losing Encarnacion, will still be tough to beat.

 

Some of our guys had career years that they probably won't repeat. Leon for instance and Shaw is more likely to not add much in offense.

 

There have been numerous suggestions for ways to improve the team. Most are well meant and have a reasonable likelihood of improving the team. You can't stand pat and improve. We will need to at least make changes at 3rd base and in the RP area (since we lose 3 of our meaningful RP through FA). At most, I see us adding RP's, picking up a reliable 3rd baseman (yes Sandoval and Moncada are wild cards there), a DH and if we get lucky a top SP. That would mean some of the players you list for standing pat would be gone. Clearly, to get a SP we might have to trade at least some of our depth, but it is not worth it if we have to put up our young starting talent to do it.

[sk7326]

What's our starting lineup if we do nothing?

 

C Sandy

1B Hanley

2B Pedey

SS Xander

3B Holt

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH Young

C Vasquez Utility Swihart, Rodriquez, Shaw

SP Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright, Pomeranz, Clay B Pen Kimbrel, Kelly, Smith, Barnes, Hembree, Ross, Scott.

 

can this 25 man roster win the division if everyone stays healthy?

 

Yes. Because you expect young players to get better. But it is also a bit of a silly question since we know this will not be the roster.

[moonslav59]

The optimist:

 

We'll have Beni, Pomeranz and Wright for a full season- not half or less than half..

 

We'll have Carson Smith all year.

 

Kelly, Barnes, Hembree and others may take a big step up.

 

Pre-prime guys like Betts, Bogey, JBJ could get even better.

 

Price should get better.

 

There's a chance Moncada or someone else has a significant year.

 

 

The Pessimist:

 

Papi is irreplacable, and we just got ousted in the first round.

 

Late season slumpings could be a sign of what to expect next year.

 

Players coming off "career years" could drop off.

 

We have other holes to fill besides Papi: Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa.

 

JF is not the best manager around.

 

[Nick]

How can we sit here in 2016 and project that the Sox can or will win the AL East when we do not know what other teams will look like?

 

One simple example is what will the Jays do about Joey Batts and EE?

 

Are the four other team going to stand pat?

 

I kind of doubt it.

 

Basically we are standing pat, so why don't you assume for sake of argument that they also stand pat. Maybe you can use little brain and say something like, well if Blue Jays resign so and so, etc, they would win the division.....or you can just ignore and not participate in the discussion.

Edited October 14, 2016 by Nick