Swihart To Undergo Ankle Surgery

[User Name]

Exactly.

I don't get this infatuation with BABIP and this belief that it should regress to a norm. Yes, .440 is abnormally high, but there is no reason to believe it should be .300. Do people really think that if you don't strikeout or hit a home run everything else is just luck? Hitting more line drives and hitting to all fields don't mean anything?

 

There's all of the reason in the world to believe, based on prior numbers and league trends, that his BABIP should regress significantly. Not necessarily to .300, and not necessarily to a .250 batting average, but still.

[cp176]

sad story for Swihart. He will continue to be a very talented athlete. Personally, I would bet against him ever holding down a full time catching job in Boston. His skill level in general behind the plate may have been improving but he is a long way behind two young guys ahead of him. Vazquez and Leon are solid behind the plate. If Leon hits at all, he isn't going anywhere. I think that it is going to be very interesting to see what the Red Sox do here going forward. Swihart's athleticism and ability to play a number of different positions might just help to keep him in Boston. i would be very surprised if a young catcher with Vazquez's potential becomes the perennial backup going forward. The off season should be very entertaining.

[mvp 78]

sad story for Swihart. He will continue to be a very talented athlete. Personally, I would bet against him ever holding down a full time catching job in Boston. His skill level in general behind the plate may have been improving but he is a long way behind two young guys ahead of him. Vazquez and Leon are solid behind the plate. If Leon hits at all, he isn't going anywhere. I think that it is going to be very interesting to see what the Red Sox do here going forward. Swihart's athleticism and ability to play a number of different positions might just help to keep him in Boston. i would be very surprised if a young catcher with Vazquez's potential becomes the perennial backup going forward. The off season should be very entertaining.

 

He's Jason Kendall. If you get a decent return for him, you won't miss him when he's gone.

[Behindenemylines]

Swihart might not ever become the every day catcher for the Sox, but I think he gives the Sox more value as a catcher. He becomes a bigger trading chip if he shows he can handle the position on an every day basis.

[cp176]

Swihart might not ever become the every day catcher for the Sox, but I think he gives the Sox more value as a catcher. He becomes a bigger trading chip if he shows he can handle the position on an every day basis.

 

Moot point I think. There is really no question that his appeal as a good hitting catcher would be greater than if he was a good hitting left fielder. The problem is where will he get a chance to catch again? I suppose it could be Boston someday if both Vazquez and Leon step on themselves. He just isn't going to magically move ahead of them on the depth chart. He just needs to get healthy and keep on keeping on.

[sk7326]

It helps that his line drive rate increased, his infield fly ball rate decreased and his hard hit % skyrocketed. Looks like he's just making better contact?

 

True. Now I looked at some of the data on this - there is a weak but positive correlation between line drive and BABIP. There is evidence of some control - but whatever control there is is fairly weak. And generally I think, pitchers have more influence on BABIP than hitters.

 

I certainly think it is clear Leon is better - but what that actually means is a fair question. As Cycles said, .260/.310 or so with good defense is a solid starter at that position.

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder what the highest career BABIP in history is...

[mvp 78]

I wonder what the highest career BABIP in history is...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-ten-highest-babips-since-1945/

[sk7326]

Exactly.

I don't get this infatuation with BABIP and this belief that it should regress to a norm. Yes, .440 is abnormally high, but there is no reason to believe it should be .300. Do people really think that if you don't strikeout or hit a home run everything else is just luck? Hitting more line drives and hitting to all fields don't mean anything?

 

You miss the point. I used .300 as just an easy basic measure to get a more realistic number and illustrate where future expectations ought to place him.

 

Those things you mentioned help - but empirical evidence suggests it doesn't help that much. Just as important is whether a fielder can get to the location you hit the ball. BABIP is subject to some very large fluctuations - and so when I see a .440 BABIP, I'm going to say "that ain't forever".

 

Let's put it this way - you hit more line drives, you can improve it - but it might not a 1 to 1 thing, or even very close.

[Bellhorn04]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-ten-highest-babips-since-1945/

 

Interesting, but those are single season BABIPs. I must have career BABIPs.

[cp176]

He's Jason Kendall. If you get a decent return for him, you won't miss him when he's gone.

 

Same goes probably for any number of players and prospects that we have. Judged by the return. The days of hoarding prospects in a rainy day fund and trying to trade them after they get injured might be over. i hope.

[User Name]

I wonder what the highest career BABIP in history is...

 

Tom Mcreery at .390.

 

Ty Cobb amongst full time regulars at .378.

[moonslav59]

With Benintendi looking like he is the real deal in LF the Sox should move Swihart back to C. Because his season is over I think he starts in AAA in '17. As the catching situation long term is still up in the air his best value to the Sox would be as a catcher. Whether he ends up as the catcher of the future or is a piece that can bring back pitching I think his best value is as a catcher.

 

I always argued his highest value is as a catcher, but I think that value should be used in trade. Maybe not now, due to the injury, but once he shows he's healthy, I'd explore trading him. I'm too high on Vazquez to think Swihart will ever pass him. Leon's presence makes trading Swi palatable.

[moonslav59]

Well, it's easier to just look at BABIP and say "fluke" than to actually wonder why some people have higher BABIP's to begin with.

 

Many times BAbip coincides with LD% and GB%. It's not always "luck" when a hitter's BAbip goes up or down, although it could just be a hot streak or slump and not a true representation of a players batting skill decline or incline overall.

[sk7326]

Many times BAbip coincides with LD% and GB%. It's not always "luck" when a hitter's BAbip goes up or down, although it could just be a hot streak or slump and not a true representation of a players batting skill decline or incline overall.

 

I enjoyed this - sometimes there's a correlation, sometimes there isn't. Also, sometimes it rains.

[a700hitter]

Many times BAbip coincides with LD% and GB%. It's not always "luck" when a hitter's BAbip goes up or down, although it could just be a hot streak or slump and not a true representation of a players batting skill decline or incline overall.

In other words, it is unreliable as an indicator of anything?

[moonslav59]

In other words, it is unreliable as an indicator of anything?

 

I wouldn't say useless. If some one has a very low or high BAbip without LD% or hard hit% that supports it. Then one can say it's luck- good or bad.

[Bellhorn04]

In other words, it is unreliable as an indicator of anything?

 

Leon's current BABIP is .440.

 

Ty Cobb has the highest BABIP in history at .378.

 

The smart money says Leon's BABIP is going down.

[a700hitter]

Leon's current BABIP is .440.

 

Ty Cobb has the highest BABIP in history at .378.

 

The smart money says Leon's BABIP is going down.

I really didn't need BABIP to tell me that. His.363 batting average which is only 3 points less than Cobb's career average was enough of a tip off.

[southpaw777]

I didn't know that, thanks for the article. Here's hoping Swihart becomes our everyday catcher next year. Look how many home-grown players are potentially starters next year:

 

RF Mookie Betts

2B Dustin Pedroia

SS Xander Bogaerts

CF Jackie Bradley Jr

DH Hanley Ramirez

1B Travis Shaw

3B Yoan Moncada

LF Andrew Benitendi

C Blake Swihart

 

My guess is, if he is going back behind the plate, he will be in AAA getting his legs back and continuing his development defensively There in 2017. Especially if Vaz and Leon are doing well. It looked as if Blake was going through a bit of a adjustment with the bat with MLB pitching, but I think he will be ok there. He had work to do on defense before he was forced into the MLB lineup due to a rash of catching injuries.. after having surgery, then recovery time, getting back into baseball and catching shape might take a little bit. Theyre not going to thrust him right in as the starter next year. His value isnt great right now, so a trade would be selling low on him. He needs to prove to Gms that he can be at least a decent defensive catcher, which hes not rght now. Theres no OF spot as it stands right now, so the Sox best bet is to get him up to speed defensively so his value goes back up. At least then you have more choices. Who knows, Maybe theres a GM that still values him highly and is willing to take the chance on him being a decent backstop with a good stick. Enough to give up some good pitching.

As they always say, things will work themselves out...

Edited August 11, 2016 by southpaw777

[southpaw777]

I view Leon as the starter until someone proves that wrong. He continues to hit, and his defense and the handling of the staff has been good. The kid is 27 and a switch hitter. It would be great that the Sox lucked into this. He was signed as a depth player, and because of injuries and Vasquez's lack of hitting has emerged as the starting catcher. The Sox could have had another such player with Rich Hill. I'd liked to know the rational for not signing him this past off season.

 

Pretty simple...There wasnt a guarenteed spot in the rotation for him like there was in Oakland. If your an MLB veteran pitcher your probably going to take the guarenteed spot on the MLB team.

[Bellhorn04]

I really didn't need BABIP to tell me that. His.363 batting average which is only 3 points less than Cobb's career average was enough of a tip off.

 

Well you're right of course, BABIP often just confirms what we already know, that there's no way the guy can keep it up. Leon is kind of an extreme example of it right now.

 

Blah blah blah

[moonslav59]

Well you're right of course, BABIP often just confirms what we already know, that there's no way the guy can keep it up. Leon is kind of an extreme example of it right now.

 

Blah blah blah

 

Of course he's not going to continue like this, but what BAbip does not show is that he has a 26% LD rate and 36% hard hit ball rate, which rank pretty highly on the team. That means it hasn't all been luck, although it doesn't mean he will continue hitting the ball hard going forward either.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course he's not going to continue like this, but what BAbip does not show is that he has a 26% LD rate and 36% hard hit ball rate, which rank pretty highly on the team. That means it hasn't all been luck, although it doesn't mean he will continue hitting the ball hard going forward either.

 

I don't have a deep understanding of BABIP. About all I know is that the overall average in MLB is somewhere around .300 and that .350 is huge. So when a guy is at .440 it's way unsustainable and the law of averages shall smite him down.

[cp176]

My guess is, if he is going back behind the plate, he will be in AAA getting his legs back and continuing his development defensively There in 2017. Especially if Vaz and Leon are doing well. It looked as if Blake was going through a bit of a adjustment with the bat with MLB pitching, but I think he will be ok there. He had work to do on defense before he was forced into the MLB lineup due to a rash of catching injuries.. after having surgery, then recovery time, getting back into baseball and catching shape might take a little bit. Theyre not going to thrust him right in as the starter next year. His value isnt great right now, so a trade would be selling low on him. He needs to prove to Gms that he can be at least a decent defensive catcher, which hes not rght now. Theres no OF spot as it stands right now, so the Sox best bet is to get him up to speed defensively so his value goes back up. At least then you have more choices. Who knows, Maybe theres a GM that still values him highly and is willing to take the chance on him being a decent backstop with a good stick. Enough to give up some good pitching.

As they always say, things will work themselves out...

 

Unless there is an injury or a trade, i would doubt that the Sox put Swihart behind the plate again.

[Behindenemylines]

Swihart as a catcher is what made him special. He doesn't have the same appeal as an outfielder. He starts 2017 in AAA and if that is the case then he holds the most value to the Sox as a catcher.

[a700hitter]

Let's hope that he can still catch after his ankle heals. Ankle injuries have derailed a few prominent careers -- Bill Buckner was a great outfielder but his ankle turned him into a lame race horse that had to be moved to 1B. Tommy Davis was a great OFer who could fly -- got turned into a hobbling DH. I realize that sports medicine is much more advanced than in those days, but the ankle is tricky. Jacko can weigh in. I know that artificial hips and knees are almost perfected, but not ankles, because the are much more complicated.

[mvp 78]

What should Swihart's role be next year?

 

LF/1B backup?

 

C?

 

Not sure his trade value is high enough to move him right now. I'd probably stick him in AAA and let him catch every day. The Sox messed up by moving him up to the main roster last year...

[southpaw777]

I didn't know that, thanks for the article. Here's hoping Swihart becomes our everyday catcher next year. Look how many home-grown players are potentially starters next year:

 

RF Mookie Betts

2B Dustin Pedroia

SS Xander Bogaerts

CF Jackie Bradley Jr

DH Hanley Ramirez

1B Travis Shaw

3B Yoan Moncada

LF Andrew Benitendi

C Blake Swihart

 

No way hes our everyday catcher next year, and maybe ever...i seriously think he recovers, goes back to AAA and works on his D behind the dish because its terrible. Then I think he may be in a trade. They have to build his value back up as a catcher first though. I would bet that we have Leon and Vaz next year as our catchers.

Edited August 29, 2016 by southpaw777

[mvp 78]

He has more value to another team than to the Sox. The Sox already have 2 far better young options at C.