Swihart To Undergo Ankle Surgery

[moonslav59]

OK - do you have a better comp for Swihart than harmony's Salty comp?

 

I'd say his value is about the same as Vazquez. He's a better hitter, but worse fielder. He's got a good arm and is a good athlete. The fact that he can play LF might help his value a bit.

 

My thing on Swihart is that so many teams have crap for catchers, or their catchers are aging out. They especially have weak hitting from the position, and maybe on the team overall. I think some GMs would love to ass Swihart to their team and line-up. He may not be great, but he's better than what they have now, and he has upside.

 

Over the past two years, MLB teams had a catcher OPS below Swihart's .714 in 37 out of 60 times.

 

22 out of 60 times a team has had a catching OPS below .650, 11 times under .625 and 3 times under .600. Harmony's Mariners were at .466 last year!

 

I think some of these teams may be okay with absorbing some of his "poor defense" for a 100-200 boost in catcher OPS.

 

fangraphs has Swihart's defense about the same as Hanigan and Montero from 2015-2016.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd say his value is about the same as Vazquez. He's a better hitter, but worse fielder. He's got a good arm and is a good athlete. The fact that he can play LF might help his value a bit.

 

My thing on Swihart is that so many teams have crap for catchers, or their catchers are aging out. They especially have weak hitting from the position, and maybe on the team overall. I think some GMs would love to ass Swihart to their team and line-up. He may not be great, but he's better than what they have now, and he has upside.

 

Over the past two years, MLB teams had a catcher OPS below Swihart's .714 in 37 out of 60 times.

 

22 out of 60 times a team has had a catching OPS below .650, 11 times under .625 and 3 times under .600. Harmony's Mariners were at .466 last year!

 

I think some of these teams may be okay with absorbing some of his "poor defense" for a 100-200 boost in catcher OPS.

 

 

Or does this suggest that MLB teams value defense more than offense at the position? The Sox certainly seemed in a hurry to demote Swihart and then move him to the outfield.

[sk7326]

Or does this suggest that MLB teams value defense more than offense at the position? The Sox certainly seemed in a hurry to demote Swihart and then move him to the outfield.

 

I think the Sox had a division to win - and the alarming state of their pitching early meant someone had to take the fall. Plus Vasquez was there as a viable option. With the offseason they can now try to see what they have. Will Vasquez hit? Can Vasquez work with pitchers? Is essentially six weeks of great baseball enough to overlook Sandy Leon's career overall?

[moonslav59]

Or does this suggest that MLB teams value defense more than offense at the position? The Sox certainly seemed in a hurry to demote Swihart and then move him to the outfield.

 

I think the Sox always had Vaz ahead of Swihart. I doubt the tiny 2016 sample size changed their evaluation that much.

 

I agree. Teams do value defense more than offense at catcher, but I'm not so sure every GM is writing off Swihart's defense. He's still young enough to grow. His athletic ability means he can probably play another position, if catching doesn't work out. Salty, Vaz and most other catchers can't do that.

 

Look, I'm not saying we can get Sale for Swihart or 3 Swiharts, but he still has high value, despite his recent injury. (Lower than last November though)

[harmony]

22 out of 60 times a team has had a catching OPS below .650, 11 times under .625 and 3 times under .600. Harmony's Mariners were at .466 last year!

To be precise, the Seattle Mariners had an OPS of .708 from the catcher's slot in 2016 (but .464 the previous year). I suspect the Mariners would keep Mike Zunino over Blake Swihart with veteran Carlos Ruiz as the backup.

[moonslav59]

To be precise, the Seattle Mariners had an OPS of .708 from the catcher's slot in 2016 (but .464 the previous year). I suspect the Mariners would keep Mike Zunino over Blake Swihart with veteran Carlos Ruiz as the backup.

 

"last year" = "previous year".

 

I still count 2016 as "this year".

[Spudboy]

You're not wrong.

 

But I will counter with a couple of small items:

 

1. Last year was a tiny sample, but a .365 OBP from that position is encouraging. There was a lot of evidence to me (warning: eye test comment) that he could actually hit. Of course he got hurt before he could lean into a good stretch.

 

2. Defensively struggled, and clearly needs work. At the same time just a better athlete than Salty to a degree that you could see him figuring it out. He needs reps - he never got them.

 

His trade value is low now - because he is hurt. And I do think the Red Sox hurt his value some by abandoning the catching thing. I don't think he is the centerpiece of a trade anymore - but if healthy he is considerably higher value than the sack of potatoes value of Salty. After all (tiny sample from a time when players do still get better) his 2016 OBP was higher than any year Salty ever had.

 

Damn good post.

[SoxHop]

The thing with Swihart is that he never had that "I own this game" look. Vasquez owns the game, Leon gets the job done.

 

Catching isn't something you get gifted to you by birth. It takes reps. With reps it grows the "I own this game" mentality.

 

To me Swihart looked like a kid playing with men. But a kid that in a couple of years would easily catch up to the men and pass them.

 

At this point trading Swihart seems foolish to me. He hits better than Vasquez and most likely Leon, and within a couple of years I believe will be close to their ability in defense.

 

Sticking with Swihart will pay off..........

[Kimmi]

The thing with Swihart is that he never had that "I own this game" look. Vasquez owns the game, Leon gets the job done.

 

Catching isn't something you get gifted to you by birth. It takes reps. With reps it grows the "I own this game" mentality.

 

To me Swihart looked like a kid playing with men. But a kid that in a couple of years would easily catch up to the men and pass them.

 

At this point trading Swihart seems foolish to me. He hits better than Vasquez and most likely Leon, and within a couple of years I believe will be close to their ability in defense.

 

Sticking with Swihart will pay off..........

 

I agree with this. Give Swihart the reps that he needs in AAA, focusing solely of catching.

 

The initial scouting reports on him projected him to be an above average catcher, and an overall better package than Vazquez. Swihart is never going to be as good as good as Vazquez is defensively, and trying to compare him to that bar is unfair to Swihart. However, given a little more time to develop, he just may end up being a good defensive catcher as well as being an offensive one.

[moonslav59]

He hits better than Vasquez and most likely Leon, and within a couple of years I believe will be close to their ability in defense.

 

He's only a year younger than Vaz. Believing he catches up with Vaz on defense, assumes Vaz does not get much better on D as Swi theoretically improves.

[moonslav59]

I do think Swihart can and will improve on defense as a catcher.

 

I don't think he's as bad as many think he is right now.

 

He's got a plus arm (strong & accurate) and with sub 2.0 pop times. He's had good to very good CS% over his career in the minors (39%) and majors (28%). To me, throwing out runners is just a small fraction of a catcher's value on defense, but the rest is harder to quantify. I'll leave it to soxprospects.com to rate:

 

Field: ... Athletic behind the plate with quick feet and lateral movements. Frames well, and athleticism provides mobility for excellent blocking skills on balls in the dirt. Future plus defense with plus athleticism...

 

...and this is why I think he still has high value right now, despite an injury that he should be able to recover from 100% quickly.

[Spudboy]

I agree with this. Give Swihart the reps that he needs in AAA, focusing solely of catching.

 

The initial scouting reports on him projected him to be an above average catcher, and an overall better package than Vazquez. Swihart is never going to be as good as good as Vazquez is defensively, and trying to compare him to that bar is unfair to Swihart. However, given a little more time to develop, he just may end up being a good defensive catcher as well as being an offensive one.

 

How do you know this? How can anyone, even a scout say this?

 

He is already a better hitter and will improve. He is already a much better athlete and that is something Vazquez can never learn.

 

I am not saying Swihart is the next Johnny Bench. But to say he will never be as good as another player is a stretch.

[cp176]

I guess my real question is right now how good is Vazquez? I need some real feedback here because I haven't heard much talk outside of Boston claiming that he is one of the best in baseball. Leon looks to be easily as competent. If Vazquez actually laid over the field with respect to all things catching, Leon would be a footnote regardless of what he did this year. I'm guessing that there really isn't much difference between the two.

[Slasher9]

we should be able to get a pretty good pitching stud with swihart and espi. oh wait...nevermind. thanks DD.....

[moonslav59]

I guess my real question is right now how good is Vazquez? I need some real feedback here because I haven't heard much talk outside of Boston claiming that he is one of the best in baseball. Leon looks to be easily as competent. If Vazquez actually laid over the field with respect to all things catching, Leon would be a footnote regardless of what he did this year. I'm guessing that there really isn't much difference between the two.

 

Something happened last year beyond Leon's hot streak. It looked like Vaz was in the dog house over something. I've heard some rumors, but I don't want to repeat things that may not be true.

 

I've always been super high on Vaz. His defense is supposed to already be plus, so at his age, I'm thinking maybe he'll be one of the best on D real soon.

 

I don't worry as much as others about offense from the catcher, SS and to some extent CF, but sub .600 is pushing even my parameters.

 

I'm think Vaz should be able to hit over .675, but I'm hopeful for .700-.750 before too long.

 

I don't expect Leon to be over .750 next year, but I doubt he's below .650 either. He did have an .856 OPS in the minors back in 2012, so maybe he can do much better than his .654 minor league career mark.

[cp176]

I've always been super high on Vaz. His defense is supposed to already be plus, so at his age, I'm thinking maybe he'll be one of the best on D real soon.

 

I think the key to your statement would be the words supposed to be. He is not a young project anymore.

[moonslav59]

we should be able to get a pretty good pitching stud with swihart and espi. oh wait...nevermind. thanks DD.....

 

It's probably best to hold onto Swihart (if and) until his value rises. I do think he may be the best talent we have that we can also do without next year and going forward, but if Vaz never gets over .600, I'll be kicking myself for years.

 

With all DH Papi gone, Hernandez, Dubon, Travis and others looking fine, maybe Holt could be part of a package that nets us a significant talent. I wouldn't trade both Swihart and Holt, because we need ML ready LF depth beyond Young.

 

I'm super high on Moncada, but I like Devers too, so maybe he'll be the one that is the center point of a big trade this winter. (I wouldn't include Holt in a Moncada package due to the need for 3B depth, once Moncada is gone.) Devers may be 1 or 1.5 years away.

 

We won't get much for Owens and/or Johnson, and I'd hate to trade Kopech or Groome after losing Espi.

 

We might be able to trade Pom or Buch with other pieces for a better starter, but I can't think of a match. It sounds good in theory, but name a better starter we can for Pom, Swihart and Owens. Who can we get for Moncada, Swihart and Pom?

[moonslav59]

I've always been super high on Vaz. His defense is supposed to already be plus, so at his age, I'm thinking maybe he'll be one of the best on D real soon.

 

I think the key to your statement would be the words supposed to be. He is not a young project anymore.

 

Catchers usually mature much slower. Vaz just turned 26. VTek was 30-32 when he became plus-plus on D.

[cp176]

Catchers usually mature much slower. Vaz just turned 26. VTek was 30-32 when he became plus-plus on D.

 

If I could trade him right now as the featured player to bring back that one pitcher that we would love to have (sorry - not espi), I would do it as quickly as I could.

[moonslav59]

If I could trade him right now as the featured player to bring back that one pitcher that we would love to have (sorry - not espi), I would do it as quickly as I could.

 

I doubt any of our catchers, as the feature player of a trade, is going to net us a top pitcher. Maybe we could get a decent set-up guy, but I'm not sure that's a good idea.

[Dojji]

Dear God someone PLEASE change the name of this thread!!!!!

[moonslav59]

Dear God someone PLEASE change the name of this thread!!!!!

 

I would, if I knew how.

[Kimmi]

How do you know this? How can anyone, even a scout say this?

 

He is already a better hitter and will improve. He is already a much better athlete and that is something Vazquez can never learn.

 

I am not saying Swihart is the next Johnny Bench. But to say he will never be as good as another player is a stretch.

 

I said he would never be as good as Vazquez defensively. No, I can't know that for sure, but I think it's a pretty good educated guess. Perhaps I should have said that he will likely never be as good as Vazquez defensively. He could very well end up being the a better overall player than Vazquez, and I'm pretty sure I mentioned that in my post.

[georom4]

I always thought vaz was highly hyped and Blake totally forgotten as a catcher - good to see that they got rid of Hannigan and will be trying him out again at the position - Decent fielding catchers are a dime a dozen - Blake's athleticism/hitting could make him a star imo

[cp176]

Dear God someone PLEASE change the name of this thread!!!!!

 

Oh for Pete's sake. (no pun intended Spud)

[Spudboy]

I said he would never be as good as Vazquez defensively. No, I can't know that for sure, but I think it's a pretty good educated guess. Perhaps I should have said that he will likely never be as good as Vazquez defensively. He could very well end up being the a better overall player than Vazquez, and I'm pretty sure I mentioned that in my post.

 

Oh.

[Spudboy]

I always thought vaz was highly hyped and Blake totally forgotten as a catcher - good to see that they got rid of Hannigan and will be trying him out again at the position - Decent fielding catchers are a dime a dozen - Blake's athleticism/hitting could make him a star imo

 

Hannigan is an unfortunate casualty of this situation. I hate to see him go. But I certainly agree with you about Swihart.

[moonslav59]

I always thought vaz was highly hyped and Blake totally forgotten as a catcher - good to see that they got rid of Hannigan and will be trying him out again at the position - Decent fielding catchers are a dime a dozen - Blake's athleticism/hitting could make him a star imo

 

I wouldn't say he was forgotten at catcher. He was our FT starter to start the season, then got replaced. He got hurt to end the season.

 

You make a great point about no hit-great D catchers being a dime a dozen. Swihart clearly projects to be a much better offensive catcher than Vaz, and I feel he'll be better than Leon as well. All he needs is his defense to improve. He's still young enough. He's good at throwing runners out. I'm still hopeful, and that's why I value him highly, despite his injury and poor tiny sample size start to 2016.

[Kimmi]

I always thought vaz was highly hyped and Blake totally forgotten as a catcher - good to see that they got rid of Hannigan and will be trying him out again at the position - Decent fielding catchers are a dime a dozen - Blake's athleticism/hitting could make him a star imo

 

IMO, the FO screwed up last year and ended up hurting the development of both catchers. I would prefer a defensive catcher over an offensive one, but if Swihart proves to be the better overall value, then you have to go with him.

[Kimmi]

Oh.

 

Apology accepted.