Lineup Discussions

[a700hitter]

Nobody claims to be perfect, but I don't disagree that Pedey is in the bottom tier of base runners.

 

He's gutsy. His head is in the game, but he's much slower now.

Yep, he is slower now, but I'd rather have him on the bases than Travis Shaw, or Leon or Hanigan. And no I don,t agree that he is the 9th worst base runner in baseball. Fangraphs is off on this.

[sk7326]

156 qualified batters in MLB

 

Base running rankings by fangraphs

 

1) Billy Hamilton 9.6

2) Sterling Marte 7.9

3) Rajai Davis 6.9

4) Brett Gardner 6.8

5) Mike Trout 6.8

6) Mookie Betts 6.7

...

10) Xander Bogaerts 5.4

11) Jackie Bradley 5.4

...

89) Travis Shaw

...

103) Hanley Ramirez

...

149) Dustin Pedroia

...

154) David Ortiz

 

fangraphs considers Pedey the 8th worst runner in MLB this year.

 

 

 

 

It indicates perhaps that things have not gone well this season on that front. But there are sample size issues at work as this year is an extreme outlier, compared to the rest of his career (where he is basically nothing special, sometimes a little below average, sometimes a bit above). I am mystified at the attempts to put Pedroia out to pasture ... he is still one of best position players in the league.

[Spudboy]

Yep, he is slower now, but I'd rather have him on the bases than Travis Shaw, or Leon or Hanigan. And no I don,t agree that he is the 9th worst base runner in baseball. Fangraphs is off on this.

 

Pretty strange to hear that Peddey is so poorly ranked when for the bulk of his career he was known as an excellent base runner.

[mvp 78]

Who are YOU to doubt the Fangraphs Tribune?!?

[sk7326]

Pretty strange to hear that Peddey is so poorly ranked when for the bulk of his career he was known as an excellent base runner.

 

The metrics have never been spectacular either way. I suspect the view of his baserunning falls into the same bucket as compliments about his scrappiness, toughness and headiness.

[a700hitter]

Nonsense. There are probably 10 baserunners in the ALE that are worse than Pedroia.

[sk7326]

Nonsense. There are probably 10 baserunners in the ALE that are worse than Pedroia.

 

I never said he was a bottom 10 baserunner - though it is possible that he has had a crappy year on that front. There is a significant difference between someone not being good at it and someone having a rough stretch. I agree with you there. But it is easy to believe he is preternaturally gifted at things like taking the extra base and such, whether or not it's actually true. It's just how sports fans, media and whatnot have been conditioned to see.

[a700hitter]

I never said he was a bottom 10 baserunner - though it is possible that he has had a crappy year on that front. There is a significant difference between someone not being good at it and someone having a rough stretch. I agree with you there. But it is easy to believe he is preternaturally gifted at things like taking the extra base and such, whether or not it's actually true. It's just how sports fans, media and whatnot have been conditioned to see.

I am disputing fangraphs, not you. And if he is in a rough stretch, maybe Buttermilk at 3B has had something to do with it.

[mvp 78]

I am disputing fangraphs, not you. And if he is in a rough stretch, maybe Buttermilk at 3B has had something to do with it.

 

Nope, can never blame Pedroia for anything around here.

[Behindenemylines]

Nice 9-1 combination...Beni and the Betts.

 

I agree. It seems that since Bendi has been called up it is him or Betts crossing the plate with another run. Looking into the future, has Betts production make him a number 3 hitter in '17 (Post Big Papi) or do the Sox leave him at the top?

[a700hitter]

Nope, can never blame Pedroia for anything around here.

The guy is having a great season by any measure. And I maintain that when healthy and producing, the Red Sox win. One of the problems in our last place seasons is that we have not seen enough of vintage Pedey.

[moonslav59]

2015-2016 MLB Rankings

 

OBP vs RHPs (379 players with 200+ PAs vs RHPs)

7 Ortiz .409

44 Pedey .363

82 JBJ .349

85 Betts .348

90 Bogey .347 (top 25%)

119 Shaw .337

132 Holt .335

164 Hill .325 (both teams)

174 Swihart .323

211 Sandy .314

226 Ramirez .310

301 Shaw .293 (but has high SLG)

323 Hanigan .285

362 Young .264 (Should never start vs a RHP)

367 Castillo .259

(Non-qualifiers: Leon .313 and Vazquez .255)

 

SLG vs RHP

1 Ortiz .641

23 JBJ .534 (huge split difference)

39 Betts .509 (almost equal to LHPs)

101 Shaw .457

107 Pedey .456 (reverse split here)

139 Bogey .432 (not a 3 hitter SLG% here)

169 Sandy .419 (if he makes it on the 25, he might platoon at best)

212 Ramirez .405 (Please move down vs RHP already!)

215 Swihart .404

246 Holt .387

251 Hill .384

353 Castillo .313

373 Hanigan .281

(Non-qualifier: Leon .370 and Vazquez .284)

 

 

OBP vs LHP (367 players with 80+ PAs vs LHPs)

17 Bogey .411

26 Young .398 (must find a slot for him vs LHPs)

67 JBJ .370 (should bat 1/2 vs LHPs- see low SLG vs LHPs)

70 Holt .369 (How to fit him in?)

81 Pedey .361 (almost equal to RHPs)

115 Castillo .347

128 Swihart .344 (way better than vs RHPs)

129 Ramirez .343 (same as Swihart)

146 Betts .337 (too low to lead off?)

154 Leon .335 (just barely qualified w 83 PAs)

216 Hill .315 (What did we see in him?)

246 Ortiz .302 (Pride aside- move him down vs LHPs)

(Non-qualifiers: Rutledge .400, Vazquez .371 and Leon .333)

 

 

SLG vs LHP

13 Young .590 (Auto line-up fill vs LHPs)

53 Ramirez .510 (Here is his only value to us.)

58 Betts .504 (see low OBP- move to 3/4 slot v LHPs.)

61 Shaw .503 (Top 25%)

110 Bogey .464

112 Castillo .461 (Does he have a future as a platoon?)

122 Leon .452

124 JBJ .451 (much lower power vs LHPs)

155 Ortiz .430 (just avg power vs LHPs)

192 Pedey .406

277 Holt .353

281 Hill .352 (Tell me again, why we got this guy.)

306 Swihart .329 (need work here)

366 Sandy .231 (sad)

(Non-qualifiers: Leon .452, Vazquez .400 and Rutledge .395)

[mvp 78]

The guy is having a great season by any measure. And I maintain that when healthy and producing, the Red Sox win. One of the problems in our last place seasons is that we have not seen enough of vintage Pedey.

 

Pedroia has greatly exceeded my expectations this year. Last year, his glove looked weaker and he missed a lot of the season. This year, he has hit more to the opposite field than he ever has in his career. I always thought he was too pull happy with all that "la luna" BS. I hope he keeps it up for years to come.

[Behindenemylines]

The guy is having a great season by any measure. And I maintain that when healthy and producing, the Red Sox win. One of the problems in our last place seasons is that we have not seen enough of vintage Pedey.

 

I agree. Pedey is not the top hitter on this team, but when he is hitting the Sox win. His D is still gold glove. The Sox FO must feel the same as Moncada is now taking reps at 3B. Remember Pedey did move a pretty good hitter to the outfield (Betts). An that has worked out pretty good.

[Bellhorn04]

It indicates perhaps that things have not gone well this season on that front. But there are sample size issues at work as this year is an extreme outlier, compared to the rest of his career (where he is basically nothing special, sometimes a little below average, sometimes a bit above). I am mystified at the attempts to put Pedroia out to pasture ... he is still one of best position players in the league.

 

Thank you sir.

[mvp 78]

Pedroia is the 6th best 2b per WAR. That sounds about right to me. He's no longer the best 2b in the game, but he's close to the top 5.

[Behindenemylines]

Pedroia is the 6th best 2b per WAR. That sounds about right to me. He's no longer the best 2b in the game, but he's close to the top 5.

 

He is a gamer. The Muddy Chicken has played on two championship teams and has played hurt. He also took a home town discount to stay in Boston.

[mvp 78]

He is a gamer. The Muddy Chicken has played on two championship teams and has played hurt. He also took a home town discount to stay in Boston.

 

That was a discount? Yikes.

[Bellhorn04]

That was a discount? Yikes.

 

How can you possibly say otherwise. The most he will be paid in any one season is $16 million and that is only one year. For a guy who cranks out 4 WAR seasons it's a clearcut bargain.

[mvp 78]

How can you possibly say otherwise. The most he will be paid in any one season is $16 million and that is only one year. For a guy who cranks out 4 WAR seasons it's a clearcut bargain.

 

The yearly amount is fine for now. I just don't see him being worth the $$$ 2019 - 2021.

[mvp 78]

I believe he also signed prior to Cano, so it wasn't really a "discount" at the time. More likely that it set the market.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe he also signed prior to Cano, so it wasn't really a "discount" at the time. More likely that it set the market.

 

The AAV on Pedroia's extension was $13.75 million.

 

The AAV on Cano's contract is $24 million.

[sk7326]

Pedroia is the 6th best 2b per WAR. That sounds about right to me. He's no longer the best 2b in the game, but he's close to the top 5.

 

And 28th among all position players. It is a bit of a golden age for the position. e.g. not the era of Robby Alomar and a bunch of guys I can barely remember

[moonslav59]

Pedroia has greatly exceeded my expectations this year. Last year, his glove looked weaker and he missed a lot of the season. This year, he has hit more to the opposite field than he ever has in his career. I always thought he was too pull happy with all that "la luna" BS. I hope he keeps it up for years to come.

 

For years I kept waiting and projecting Pedey to have a season close to his earlier career "norm". Injuries and struggles kept him doing oaky, but really not at the level he was at when he had just about 5 straight seasons over .820 with GG defense and decent base-running.

 

He's been around .795-.800 in 3 of the last 4 years, which is damn good for a 2Bman, and he's only at .806 now, but I like what I have seen this year too.

[sk7326]

I agree. Pedey is not the top hitter on this team, but when he is hitting the Sox win. His D is still gold glove. The Sox FO must feel the same as Moncada is now taking reps at 3B. Remember Pedey did move a pretty good hitter to the outfield (Betts). An that has worked out pretty good.

 

Moncada was always very very very likely to outgrow 2B anyway.

[Dojji]

Indeed, besides which it doesn't take Billy Beane to notice that our most glaring infield weakness is at the corners. Moving to 3B puts Moncada in position to potentially inherit either of Boston's 2 most transient infield positions right now.

 

I still think it's distinctly possible that Moncada is destined to be our everyday First Basemen for an extended period of his career. He's got the bat for it, and while relatively immobile players can play 1B it is a position that rewards a high level of athleticism as well. It depends on whether Shaw or Moncada is the better defender at third, and combining Shaw's above average performance defensively with the fact that Moncada is fairly inexperienced and has some problems focusing on his defense from all accounts, I can see Shaw winning that.

Edited August 10, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

Based on just the numbers (below) alone, I see a few things vs RHPs:

1) Papi is a god and must bat 3 or 4.

2) Pedey's OBP is so much better than anyone else's that he must bat 1-2. (based on his running skills, I'd say 2nd.)

*** To me, 1 and 2 are not really even debatable depending on Beni and Moncada's readiness and ML-shown performance skills

3) With Betts, Bogey and JBJ almost all with identical OBPs, speed and SLG should determine their slots. Since JBJ is better, he goes 3 or 4. Since Betts is fastest but also 3rd best slugging, and Bogey has low SLG, I'd go Bogey 1st/Betts 5th. I'd be okay with Betts 3rd and JBJ 5th.

4) Shaw is way better than HanRam vs RHPs, so he goes 6th and HanRam, if not platooned (yes, he's that bad) is slotted lower.

5) Since Beni and Moncada are largely unknowns, I left them out for now.

 

I'm not saying this is what I suggest- only what I FEEL the numbers show:

vs RHPs

1) Bogey

2) Pedey

3) JBJ or Betts

4) Ortiz

5) Betts or JBJ

6) Shaw

7) Holt (Beni)

8) HanRam (Pablo, if healthy)

9) Swihart/Leon

 

OBP vs RHPs (379 players with 200+ PAs vs RHPs)

7 Ortiz .409

44 Pedey .363

82 JBJ .349

85 Betts .348

90 Bogey .347 (top 25%)

119 Shaw .337

132 Holt .335

164 Hill .325 (both teams)

174 Swihart .323

211 Sandy .314

226 Ramirez .310

323 Hanigan .285

362 Young .264 (Should never start vs a RHP)

367 Castillo .259

(Non-qualifiers: Leon .313 and Vazquez .255)

 

SLG vs RHP

1 Ortiz .641

23 JBJ .534 (huge split difference)

39 Betts .509 (almost equal to LHPs)

101 Shaw .457

107 Pedey .456 (reverse split here)

139 Bogey .432 (not a 3 hitter SLG% here)

169 Sandy .419 (if he makes it on the 25, he might platoon at best)

212 Ramirez .405 (Please move down vs RHP already!)

215 Swihart .404

246 Holt .387

251 Hill .384

353 Castillo .313

373 Hanigan .281

(Non-qualifier: Leon .370 and Vazquez .284)

[mvp 78]

And 28th among all position players. It is a bit of a golden age for the position. e.g. not the era of Robby Alomar and a bunch of guys I can barely remember

 

Robby Alomar was a HOF spitter for sure.

[moonslav59]

Based on just the numbers (below) alone, I see a few things vs LHPs:

1) Put pride aside and demote Papi to at least the 5 slot vs LHPs. (6th may be too high based on the numbers, but with pitching changes, 5th is fine.)

2) Young is 1st in SLG and 2nd in OBP. He needs to be slotted 1-4.

3) JBj has a great OBP but loses power vs LHP: should bat him 1/2 slots.

4) Pedey has a nice OBP, so bat him 1/2, but with Bogey 1 and JBJ 1/2, JBJ has more power vs LHPs, so JBJ goes 3/4.

5) Bogey has the best OBP, so bat him 1st. He does have the 5th best power too, but with nobody having a high OBP, Boegey's .411 mark makes him our #1.

6) Betts haS a nice SLG but not OBP v LHPs.

6) HanRam has a nice SLG vs LHPs, so bat him 4 or 5 (maybe 6).

 

Here's what the numbers suggest:

1) Bogey

2) Pedey

3) JBJ

4) Young

5) HanRam

6) Ortiz (flipping 5 and 6 is fine with me)

7) Betts

8) Holt

9) Leon/Swi/Vaz

 

(Note: this is not my suggested line-up. It is just what I feel the numbers show. I would never bat Betts 7th. Papi 6th my be taken the wrong way, so 5th is probably right. Since Young is clearly our best hitter, I think Pedey or JBJ need to be dropped to move Betts and Papi up. Maybe something like this:

 

1) Bogey

2) JBJ

3) Young

4) Betts

5) Papi

6) hanRam

7) Pedey

8) Holt

9) Leon

 

 

 

OBP vs LHP (367 players with 80+ PAs vs LHPs)

17 Bogey .411

26 Young .398 (must find a slot for him vs LHPs)

67 JBJ .370 (should bat 1/2 vs LHPs- see low SLG vs LHPs)

70 Holt .369 (How to fit him in?)

81 Pedey .361 (almost equal to RHPs)

115 Castillo .347

128 Swihart .344 (way better than vs RHPs)

129 Ramirez .343 (same as Swihart)

146 Betts .337 (too low to lead off?)

154 Leon .335 (just barely qualified w 83 PAs)

216 Hill .315 (What did we see in him?)

246 Ortiz .302 (Pride aside- move him down vs LHPs)

302 Shaw .295

(Non-qualifiers: Rutledge .400, Vazquez .371 and Leon .333)

 

 

SLG vs LHP

13 Young .590 (Auto line-up fill vs LHPs)

53 Ramirez .510 (Here is his only value to us.)

58 Betts .504 (see low OBP- move to 3/4 slot v LHPs.)

61 Shaw .503 (Top 25%)

110 Bogey .464

112 Castillo .461 (Does he have a future as a platoon?)

122 Leon .452

124 JBJ .451 (much lower power vs LHPs)

155 Ortiz .430 (just avg power vs LHPs)

192 Pedey .406

277 Holt .353

281 Hill .352 (Tell me again, why we got this guy.)

306 Swihart .329 (need work here)

366 Sandy .231 (sad)

(Non-qualifiers: Leon .452, Vazquez .400 and Rutledge .395)

[bosoxmal]

And you are totally ignoring the new Kid?