2016 MLB Draft Thread.

[Jack Flap]

From FG prospect chat today:

 

11:15

AJ Preller: What are the chances Groome signs? 7M for their bonus pool, and he’s thought to want at least 5M

 

11:15

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he signs. Very little leverage, next year’s class is better…lot of external factors working against Groome right now.

11:52

Shawn: What are the character concerns on Jason Groome? Feel like whatever they are, they are overstated – kid’s only 17yo

 

11:55

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say that there are issues and some of them are definitely of the, “Come one, he’s 17” ilk while others are not. Those latter issues are not so bad that I’d just take the kid off the board, but they’d give me pause and force me to sit down with the kid and learn about him. I will also say that some of what was circulating in the industry about him was absolute BS and teams were trying to Marino him down toward their pick, which I think is despicable.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat/

[Emp9]

Shaun Anderson, Florida Gators, 4 pitches, Couldn't fit Florida's rotation, guess tge sox cld see him as set-up BP guy or stretch him out to see him as a starter.

[Hugh2]

Then there is this one too.

 

 

Q: Hi Keith. What are the makeup concerns about Groome? Is it serious stuff or 17-yr. old immaturity stuff?

 

Keith Law: To me it's immaturity and idiocy. No violence, no felonies, not a sociopath. I am more concerned about Delvin Perez's makeup than Groome's.

[Hugh2]

Bobby Dalbec 3B for Arizona, Huge huge power ceiling but not a great hit tool. Long shot to reach the majors but if he can put it together he could end up being a good pick, probably a pick they save some money on too.

[Spudboy]

I learned a new phrase to day.

 

 

"Marino him".

[mvp 78]

I learned a new phrase to day.

 

 

"Marino him".

 

I'd prefer if Groome actually wound up with a championship, but that's just me...

[Hugh2]

4th Rd pick Bobby Dalbec is starting for Arizona right now on ESPN2 Edited June 10, 2016 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[moonslav59]

We all pretty much know the MLB draft is very hard to rate, but I feel pretty good about this year's draft.

[Bellhorn04]

We all pretty much know the MLB draft is very hard to rate, but I feel pretty good about this year's draft.

 

I think even georom would have little to complain about.

[Emp9]

I think even georom would have little to complain about.

 

Lol. I don't think he needed anything new to complain about, old stuff worked just fine.

[Emp9]

Story on Mike Shawaryn, SP, 5th Rd Pick:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/183252026/red-sox-draft-maryland-pitcher-mike-shawaryn

 

-------------------------------------------

[Hugh2]

Lol. I don't think he needed anything new to complain about, old stuff worked just fine.

 

I don't know, the Sox drafting a young, 17 year old, Highschool LHP from the northeast, that was his reasoning for hating Trey Ball. That and apparently everyone on earth knew that he was the best talent left on the board at #7 even though he didn't go #8 either.

 

I would have loved to seen him be the only, or one of the only guys to hate this pick.

[Jack Flap]

I don't know, the Sox drafting a young, 17 year old, Highschool LHP from the northeast, that was his reasoning for hating Trey Ball. That and apparently everyone on earth knew that he was the best talent left on the board at #7 even though he didn't go #8 either.

 

I would have loved to seen him be the only, or one of the only guys to hate this pick.

 

I was thinking the same thing.

 

At the very least, there ought to be no doubt this time around that we got the best player available at our pick... I still kind of can't believe Groome was there at 12. Someone pinch me.

[Hugh2]

Here are some of the guys I think have a low chance of signing and most of them likely will not.

 

Name BA/PG

 

Nick Quintana 165/73

Tyler Fitzgerald 187/116

Christain Jones 140/173

Jeff Belge 68/168 has already confirmed his commitment to St. Johns

Charter Aldrete 456/357

Austin Bergner 165/73

Jon Rave 0/470

Cam Shepard 0/154

 

There are all high school guys who have a ton to gain by going to college and increasing their value, and with limited resources the Sox will not be able to offer any of these player above 100K.

 

It should be noted, that the sox could end up signing several of these guys if they fail to sign Jay Groome and have money to work with. I'm sure some of these guys are their back up plan. I'd personally rather get Groome in our system than several Devon Fisher, Marc Brakeman types.

 

I also want to point out that I could be very wrong on Nick Quintana. He was taken after the 10th round so the Sox lose zero money for signing him and he also was regarded pretty well but it seems pretty weird for the sox to sign a sign-ability guy with a low chance of signing that high in the draft. My guess is either they now something we do not and perhaps he is more singable than perceived or he is their #1 back up plan if Groome fails to sign.

[sk7326]

Law's writeup http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/insider/post?id=2947

The Red Sox nabbed the best high school player in the draft in Jason Groome (1) with the 12th overall pick. He fell because of some minor off-field concerns, but on the field, Groome's stuff and character are top-notch: He has a present 70 curveball, sits 90-94 touching 97, with an easy delivery and strong competitive streak. His fastball command is below average, and he will need to develop a better changeup since he barely used it in high school. Paying him might require some under-slot deals through the rest of the top 10 rounds, so the Red Sox took only one other top 100 prospect in Mike Shawaryn (5), a starting pitcher at Maryland who projects 100 percent as a reliever in pro ball due to his arm action, but should be an above-average right-handed middle reliever or setup man.

 

The Red Sox took CJ Chatham (2) out of Florida Atlantic with the 51st overall pick, a reach for me given that he probably won't remain at shortstop and has too little power for another position. … Florida closer Shaun Anderson (3) is a three-pitch guy who could convert to starting, although I think he's probably a reliever in the long run due to the lack of a plus pitch when he starts. He does have the command and control for any role and could move very quickly through the minors as a reliever. … Bobby Dalbec (4) is a third baseman and reliever for the University of Arizona with 80 power and a 70 arm, but he struck out 76 times in 250 plate appearances this spring and may be a better prospect on the mound, where he's 92-95 with a surprisingly good delivery and a sharp slider. He also threw 126 pitches in Arizona's super regional this weekend after spending nearly all of the season working in short stints for the Wildcats, which had to thrill the Red Sox. I've never bought his plate discipline or approach at the plate, but there is absolutely 30-homer power in there. … The Red Sox did take one more potential over-slot guy in Las Vegas prep shortstop Nick Quintana (11), who was probably a third-round talent. He can hit with plus bat speed, but he's not a shortstop, so he either has to move to second or try to convert to catcher.

[sk7326]

I've always noted the Red Sox lack of pitching talent has more to do with the team generally being good ... (there is a solid correlation between the true aces and high draft position). There has been some risk aversion taking high school pitching, especially outside of the top rounds, which does warrant some skepticism. The leaps the Red Sox have had to make are larger than other teams often.

 

They got the top high school pitching prospect in the draft - and went with a lot of easy signs to help them. We'll see if it works.

 

The nice thing is the Red Sox draft people have stuck around in a lot of cases. As has been noted the 2011 draft is looking ridiculously productive.

[Kimmi]

The Sox have reportedly reached an agreement with their 2nd round pick Chatham for $1.1 million.

[Hugh2]

Sox have also signed Steve Nogosek for 250K, which is about 31K below slot. All together the savings from Chatham + Nogosek + the 5% overage means they could sign Groome for a max contract of 3.7 million. Reportedly the lower range of his asking price was 4 million so we shall see. The Sox will likely sign a few more underslot guys but I was also hoping to be able to sign a few 200K guys after round 10. I did guess Groome would sign for 3.8 but admittedly I'm very optimistic.

[Kimmi]

I just read that Groome was "upset" that the Sox drafted him because he had a deal for more money with the team that picked after the Sox.

 

That doesn't sit right with me.

[mvp 78]

I haven't seen that anywhere.

[mvp 78]

NESN's headline was really clickbaity. Keith Law said "they were upset" not Jason himself.

[mvp 78]

From the guy who posted the NESN story "Groome on the Red Sox two weeks ago: “I would be ecstatic to go to my favorite team. That would be awesome."

[Hugh2]

I just read that Groome was "upset" that the Sox drafted him because he had a deal for more money with the team that picked after the Sox.

 

That doesn't sit right with me.

 

It's "teams believe" he was upset, not directly coming from him. Remember this is a kid who has had every rumor in the world float around about him this spring including that he was dead. When he was drafted one of the first things the life long Red Sox fan said was the money wasn't important

 

If you watch the video of him being drafted his family is genuinely excited. You can hear them talking about how happy they are for him to be staying on the east coast and close to home.

 

One thing to consider too is his agent is very new and inexperienced and rumor has it he's trying to make a name for himself and has rubbed a lot of teams the wrong way. This could easily be a stupid inexperienced agent running damage control from his client running around talking about money not mattering to try and increase his clients payday.

It's also

[a700hitter]

The kid Groome is so far away from the majors (at least 4 years) that he is not even a gleam in my eye. The Red Sox FO needs to do their jobs behind the scenes, and we will not be able to judge their results for 3 years or so.

[Spudboy]

It's nice to fantasize about what someone like Groome could become.

 

He is only 17 and a good 4-5 years away from the bigs. There is a significant chance that he flames out or just never develops enough.

 

Let me know when he hits AA.

[Hugh2]

Well guys.....this is a draft thread in a minor league forum, so that's what we're talking about here.

[a700hitter]

Who is stopping you?

[Spudboy]

Well guys.....this is a draft thread in a minor league forum, so that's what we're talking about here.

 

Yes. And your insight is very interesting.

 

I was not attacking your opinion.

 

If this kid was 22 and coming off strong college performance I would still be somewhat skeptical.

 

He has not thrown a single pitch as a pro.

[Hugh2]

Who is stopping you?

 

No one

[Hugh2]

I'm sorry guys, I just always assumed that people that actually enjoy watching and following prospects understand the caveat is these guys all have differing degrees of risk associated with them from being raw and far away.