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Posted

All I know is that so many teams would die to have just one of Vazquez or Swihart. Probably 10-20 teams would make them a FT'er immediately (if healthy).

 

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Posted
All I know is that so many teams would die to have just one of Vazquez or Swihart. Probably 10-20 teams would make them a FT'er immediately (if healthy).

 

 

Really? You know what other teams are thinking? Is this something telepathic or do you have some hard evidence of their popularity with other teams? Don't the Sox currently have five viable MLB catchers (Leon, Holaday, Hanigan, Vazquez, and Swihart)? If Vazquez and Swihart are so coveted, why hasn't DD cut a deal? For that matter, why did DD jump at the chance to get Holaday? And why did the Sox move Swihart to the outfield if he has so much potential as a catcher?

 

You know a lot more than I, but I have real trouble believing Vazquez and Swihart are so coveted as catchers.

Posted
Really? You know what other teams are thinking? Is this something telepathic or do you have some hard evidence of their popularity with other teams? Don't the Sox currently have five viable MLB catchers (Leon, Holaday, Hanigan, Vazquez, and Swihart)? If Vazquez and Swihart are so coveted, why hasn't DD cut a deal? For that matter, why did DD jump at the chance to get Holaday? And why did the Sox move Swihart to the outfield if he has so much potential as a catcher?

 

You know a lot more than I, but I have real trouble believing Vazquez and Swihart are so coveted as catchers.

 

There has been plenty of trade rumors involving our young catchers in recent years. You ask why DD hasn't traded one, and I would answer that he didn't trade one, because we weren't sure who we wanted most, and most of the value they had and still have is speculative potential. However, this is high value none the less. We also did not have any catcher hitting like Leon until just a couple months ago.

 

Just look at the state of catching these days. It's horrible- both offensively and defensively. Some of the best are old or aging.

 

Here's a look at team catcher OPS:

 

3 teams over .800

25 teams below .765

17 teams below .714

16 teams below .696

10 teams below .675

7 teams below ..623

3 teams below .608

The Guardians have a catcher OPS of .544.

 

It doesn't take telepathic powers to know teams are scouring the earth for decent catchers. It's almost a lost art. Just having a young catcher with potential is better than what several teams have already. They will overpay for Vaz or Swihart (once he shows he's healthy). I'm pretty certain one will be traded by next July. Let's just see how much some GM loved one of our kids.

 

Posted
There has been plenty of trade rumors involving our young catchers in recent years. You ask why DD hasn't traded one, and I would answer that he didn't trade one, because we weren't sure who we wanted most, and most of the value they had and still have is speculative potential. However, this is high value none the less. We also did not have any catcher hitting like Leon until just a couple months ago.

 

Just look at the state of catching these days. It's horrible- both offensively and defensively. Some of the best are old or aging.

 

Here's a look at team catcher OPS:

 

3 teams over .800

25 teams below .765

17 teams below .714

16 teams below .696

10 teams below .675

7 teams below ..623

3 teams below .608

The Guardians have a catcher OPS of .544.

 

It doesn't take telepathic powers to know teams are scouring the earth for decent catchers. It's almost a lost art. Just having a young catcher with potential is better than what several teams have already. They will overpay for Vaz or Swihart (once he shows he's healthy). I'm pretty certain one will be traded by next July. Let's just see how much some GM loved one of our kids.

 

 

Good stuff, moonslav, as always. But, as you say, "let's just see how much some GM loved one of our kids." You cited offensive stats, which suggests you value them more, which also suggests why the Sox hung onto Salty so long and why he is the starting catcher for the Tigers, who themselves are in the hunt this year. If the catcher's OPS is so important, Swihart is far more valuable than Vazquez.

Posted
Good stuff, moonslav, as always. But, as you say, "let's just see how much some GM loved one of our kids." You cited offensive stats, which suggests you value them more, which also suggests why the Sox hung onto Salty so long and why he is the starting catcher for the Tigers, who themselves are in the hunt this year. If the catcher's OPS is so important, Swihart is far more valuable than Vazquez.

 

I don't value offense more than defense at the catcher position, but that is what many view as Vazquez's biggest weakness. My point was trying to show that even if Vaz ends up as a .600-.650 catcher, he'd still be better than what many teams have right now.

 

Defensive stats for catchers are hard to evaluate. Most look at CS% and maybe WPs and PBs. There is so much more to catching than that, and by all accounts Vazquez rates to be a very good defensive catcher, if not right now, pretty much certainly in a year or two. He may end up being the best defensive catcher in 1-3 years.

 

Swihart would probably be a top 10 offensive catcher once healthy. His defensive short-comings will lessen his value to a team looking for defense over offense, but his ability to maybe play LF or someday 1B improves his trading value. His hitting could even reach the level of being a decent DH.

 

I do not rank OPS as the most important aspect of a catcher. It's not even the whole aspect of a catcher's offensive value. It's important, but I really brought it up to put our catcher's projected OPS into some sort of league-wide context.

Posted
I don't value offense more than defense at the catcher position, but that is what many view as Vazquez's biggest weakness. My point was trying to show that even if Vaz ends up as a .600-.650 catcher, he'd still be better than what many teams have right now.

 

Defensive stats for catchers are hard to evaluate. Most look at CS% and maybe WPs and PBs. There is so much more to catching than that, and by all accounts Vazquez rates to be a very good defensive catcher, if not right now, pretty much certainly in a year or two. He may end up being the best defensive catcher in 1-3 years.

 

Swihart would probably be a top 10 offensive catcher once healthy. His defensive short-comings will lessen his value to a team looking for defense over offense, but his ability to maybe play LF or someday 1B improves his trading value. His hitting could even reach the level of being a decent DH.

 

I do not rank OPS as the most important aspect of a catcher. It's not even the whole aspect of a catcher's offensive value. It's important, but I really brought it up to put our catcher's projected OPS into some sort of league-wide context.

 

Exactly. Vaz and Swihart are opposites. Swihart would be a great switch hitting offensive catcher with a big bat who could be good enough to not be a liability behind the plate. Vaz would be the one pitchers loved to work with and runners feared. Only thing is he would probably be about a 250ish hitter with little power(although I have already gone on record as saying that in time Vaz would be better offensively than most think if given a starters job). Really, both are very valuable. Just depends who your talking to and what their team needs/preferences are.

Posted (edited)
Good stuff, moonslav, as always. But, as you say, "let's just see how much some GM loved one of our kids." You cited offensive stats, which suggests you value them more, which also suggests why the Sox hung onto Salty so long and why he is the starting catcher for the Tigers, who themselves are in the hunt this year. If the catcher's OPS is so important, Swihart is far more valuable than Vazquez.

 

You may have heard me mention this before :) but the reason we always quote offensive stats is because we know they are something we can hang our hats on, where defensive stats are half voodoo. We all fall into that same trap because offensive stats are hard, calculated numbers while defensive stats at best are comprised of people watching games and then judging whether player 'a' would have gotten to a ball.

In addition, the scorebook doesn't tell the story either. Benintendi's great catch in Tampa Bay goes down in the book as "F7" (ho-hum), exactly the same as a routine can-o-corn fly ball. Defense is graded on a pass/fail basis (did he make the play, or didn't he?) while offense is graded according to the magnitude of the accomplishment. The only way to compare offense and defense stats would be to grade offense on a pass/fail basis - did he reach base, or didn't he? - and ignore the fact that many times the player reaches base on an extra-base hit.

 

So we as people tend to fall back onto what we know, hard numbers.

Edited by S5Dewey
Posted

There's no rush to move our three catchers, Leon, Swihart and Vazquez. We need two and I rather one be Swihart because of his versatility.

 

If we do indeed go by the committee approach for DH spot, then we should keep all three. Swihart can play OF, C and DH and maybe learn to play 1B. If Sandy continues to stay hot with his bat, he can also DH. Holt then can focus playing infield where he belongs.

 

If Moncada gets plugged in at 3B, our bench will have Vazquez, Swihart, Young, Holt and Shaw (with no DH and Hanley back at 1B). That's two righties, two lefties and a switch hitter.

 

Pedey

Xander

Betts

Hanley

Bradley Jr

Leon

Benintendi

Swihart/Shaw/Young

Moncada

 

My preference is to sign Encarnacion to play the DH role. Don't think Sox won't explore that option. Ortiz will be pushing it.....a fellow Dominican Republican. Some guys are born to hit and hit until late into 30's.

Posted (edited)

OK, let's talk defense--as hard as that can be to quantify. We already know that Leon is significantly better than Vazquez at throwing out base runners. He seems to have done OK at catching Wright's knuckler, but I don't remember whether Vazquez ever did that or how well. As for calling a game, I doubt that Vazquez is any better. I suspect he is better--but not a lot better--at preventing wild pitches and passed balls when catching other guys besides Wright. But is he really better at framing pitches, which some would argue is a very big deal because it affects how the umpires call balls and strikes? I would argue that maybe he isn't because, if he were, he would not have gone back to AAA so quickly after coming up to replace Swihart.

 

Them's my thoughts, nothing more. Feel free to jump all over them.

Edited by Maxbialystock
Posted
OK, let's talk defense--as hard as that can be to quantify. We already know that Leon is significantly better than Vazquez at throwing out base runners. He seems to have done OK at catching Wright's knuckler, but I don't remember whether Vazquez ever did that or how well. As for calling a game, I doubt that Vazquez is any better. I suspect he is better--but not a lot better--at preventing wild pitches and passed balls when catching other guys besides Wright. But is he really better at framing pitches, which some would argue is a very big deal because it affects how the umpires call balls and strikes? I would argue that maybe he isn't because, if he were, he would not have gone back to AAA so quickly after coming up to replace Swihart.

 

Them's my thoughts, nothing more. Feel free to jump all over them.

 

I think he got sent back to work on his hitting, not his defense....it was a black hole in our lineup. Sandy's immediate success made Vazquez almost an afterthought.

Posted
OK, let's talk defense--as hard as that can be to quantify. We already know that Leon is significantly better than Vazquez at throwing out base runners. He seems to have done OK at catching Wright's knuckler, but I don't remember whether Vazquez ever did that or how well. As for calling a game, I doubt that Vazquez is any better. I suspect he is better--but not a lot better--at preventing wild pitches and passed balls when catching other guys besides Wright. But is he really better at framing pitches, which some would argue is a very big deal because it affects how the umpires call balls and strikes? I would argue that maybe he isn't because, if he were, he would not have gone back to AAA so quickly after coming up to replace Swihart.

 

Them's my thoughts, nothing more. Feel free to jump all over them.

 

Leon has a 43% CS rate this year and 45% career. He was at 45% in the minors. Pretty much know what he can do. 45% is excellent.

 

Vaz has a 45% career MLB CS rate. His minor league CS rate is 43%. That's pretty close to Leon, but with the surgery, one never knows going forward.

 

The other intangibles of catching are so hard to measure and rank in order or importance that I'm not sure who is actually the better defender. My guess is Vazquez has more upside, but maybe right now, Leon is better or equal.

Posted
OK, let's talk defense--as hard as that can be to quantify. We already know that Leon is significantly better than Vazquez at throwing out base runners. He seems to have done OK at catching Wright's knuckler, but I don't remember whether Vazquez ever did that or how well. As for calling a game, I doubt that Vazquez is any better. I suspect he is better--but not a lot better--at preventing wild pitches and passed balls when catching other guys besides Wright. But is he really better at framing pitches, which some would argue is a very big deal because it affects how the umpires call balls and strikes? I would argue that maybe he isn't because, if he were, he would not have gone back to AAA so quickly after coming up to replace Swihart.

 

Them's my thoughts, nothing more. Feel free to jump all over them.

 

This is exactly what I was talking about when I said defensive stats are half voodoo. With all due respect, and I don't mean to rip you apart here, but the only defensive thing you mention that's quantifiable is the C/S%. Everything else you preface with "He seems", "I don't remember", 'I doubt", "is he really", and "I won't argue".

 

I won't dispute that defensive metrics have some value, but at the end of the day we tend to fall back on what we KNOW - the offensive stats - because they're quantifiable. Consequently we subconsciously put too much emphasis on a player's offensive contributions as opposed to the defensive contributions.

 

It's human nature, that's all.

Posted
There's no rush to move our three catchers, Leon, Swihart and Vazquez. We need two and I rather one be Swihart because of his versatility.

 

If we do indeed go by the committee approach for DH spot, then we should keep all three. Swihart can play OF, C and DH and maybe learn to play 1B. If Sandy continues to stay hot with his bat, he can also DH. Holt then can focus playing infield where he belongs.

 

If Moncada gets plugged in at 3B, our bench will have Vazquez, Swihart, Young, Holt and Shaw (with no DH and Hanley back at 1B). That's two righties, two lefties and a switch hitter.

 

Pedey

Xander

Betts

Hanley

Bradley Jr

Leon

Benintendi

Swihart/Shaw/Young

Moncada

 

My preference is to sign Encarnacion to play the DH role. Don't think Sox won't explore that option. Ortiz will be pushing it.....a fellow Dominican Republican. Some guys are born to hit and hit until late into 30's.

 

I've mentioned several times that keeping all three on the 25 man roster as a serious option starting next year. Since Swihart is a switch hitter and can play LF and maybe 1B/DH at times, it would be nice to be able to PH for Vazquez earlier in a game than one might normally due out of fear of your second catcher getting hurt. That may not be reason enough to make that decision, but it is a positive factor. What it ultimately would come down to is this: will Swihart hit well enough to play LF, 1B, DH? I guess one could argue, he just needs to hit better than Holt/Shaw/Pablo/Hernandez to be a valuable bench player, but I just can't ever believe that Swihart's value to us in this role would be more than his value to another team as their FT catcher.

 

I have touched on the "state of catching in MLB these days" several times, so I won't get into that, but to me, some GM would grossly overpay for Swihart, and we should oblige them. I'm not for handing him away. I don't value him less than many others. I just see our needs at other areas, and our surplus at catcher and think this why and how trades are made.

 

Posted
I have touched on the "state of catching in MLB these days" several times, so I won't get into that, but to me, some GM would grossly overpay for Swihart, and we should oblige them. I'm not for handing him away. I don't value him less than many others. I just see our needs at other areas, and our surplus at catcher and think this why and how trades are made.

 

 

I don't see how anyone would "overpay" on a guy who missed a whole season due to injury and wasn't all that impressive when he was playing full time.

Posted
There's no rush to move our three catchers, Leon, Swihart and Vazquez. We need two and I rather one be Swihart because of his versatility.

 

If we do indeed go by the committee approach for DH spot, then we should keep all three. Swihart can play OF, C and DH and maybe learn to play 1B. If Sandy continues to stay hot with his bat, he can also DH. Holt then can focus playing infield where he belongs.

 

If Moncada gets plugged in at 3B, our bench will have Vazquez, Swihart, Young, Holt and Shaw (with no DH and Hanley back at 1B). That's two righties, two lefties and a switch hitter.

 

Pedey

Xander

Betts

Hanley

Bradley Jr

Leon

Benintendi

Swihart/Shaw/Young

Moncada

 

My preference is to sign Encarnacion to play the DH role. Don't think Sox won't explore that option. Ortiz will be pushing it.....a fellow Dominican Republican. Some guys are born to hit and hit until late into 30's.

 

I see us holding onto Hanley and using him primarily as a DH with a backup 1st baseman's role. In the case of Moncada, I would not assume he will be a starting player next year until we see some evidence at the major league level.

 

I like to see speed in our field players with good hitting up and down the lineup. I think of Holt and Young as two of our utility players with Vazqyez taking the role of our backup catcher. That means we have room for one more utility player. Will it be Swihart, Rutledge or perhaps someone else.

 

My linup for next year is similar to yours:

Pedey

Xander

Betts

Hanley, Young, Swihart(DH)

JBJ

Leon

Moncada

Benintendi

Shaw, Swihart (ist)

 

A problem I see with this lineup though is 4 right handed hitters to start it off, so perhaps moving a lefty ahead of Hanley might give us a move effective lineup. Is JBJ reliable enough? Benintendi doesn't have the power to hit 3rd or 4th and the others are not in the conversation. If Benintendi shows he can hit at a 300 clip may stick him in second and move everyone back one. Plenty of fuel for discussion. I don't want to see them go after Encarnacion.

Posted
Beni should be the #2 hitter next year.

 

He could even lead off. Him and pedey seem to be somewhat similar with the bat, contact hitter with some power. Probably high BA and OBP with around 15-20 dingers a year. Benni has better speed and base stealing ability. Either way, we have a solid lineup.

Posted (edited)
OK, let's talk defense--as hard as that can be to quantify. We already know that Leon is significantly better than Vazquez at throwing out base runners.

 

Wrong... Vaz was around 45% success rate in MLB. Leon is about the same..They are very close though and both solid.

 

He seems to have done OK at catching Wright's knuckler, but I don't remember whether Vazquez ever did that or how well. As for calling a game, I doubt that Vazquez is any better. I suspect he is better--but not a lot better--at preventing wild pitches and passed balls when catching other guys besides Wright. But is he really better at framing pitches, which some would argue is a very big deal because it affects how the umpires call balls and strikes? I would argue that maybe he isn't because, if he were, he would not have gone back to AAA so quickly after coming up to replace Swihart

 

This is all speculation and opinion on your part. Problem is there are stats to back up how good Vaz is to counter your arguement. He was one of the top framers in the game. He had the best, or one of the best cs%

Catching Wright is a trick for anyone, but both Leon and Vaz caught him well. Pitchers constantly commented on his game calling, pitch framing, and leadership. I watched him steal a LOT of pitches. Meaning he got a lot of balls called strikes because of his framing.

He got sent back because the D wasnt 100% yet from the surgery and the offense had to catch up, which it has. Hes batting around 280 with a 350 obp in AAA, while making solid contact. He also has solid Bb/K numbers. If you choose Leon, thats fine because hes a good catcher. I think his bat will continue to come back to earth and some here wont be so enamored with him. But kets not undermind what Vaz can still do.

Them's my thoughts, nothing more. Feel free to jump all over them.

 

Just did...thanks

Edited by southpaw777
Posted
I don't see how anyone would "overpay" on a guy who missed a whole season due to injury and wasn't all that impressive when he was playing full time.

 

I think he has to prove he's healthy.

 

I think you may be underestimating how well he did last year playing catcher for an extended time. Other GMs were watching and comparing his play to their pathetic catcher's play.

 

I'm not saying we're trading Swi for sale straight up, but I think his value is higher for another team, and it might surprise some how much we get in return for him.

Posted
OK, let's talk defense--as hard as that can be to quantify. We already know that Leon is significantly better than Vazquez at throwing out base runners.

 

Wrong... Vaz was around 45% success rate in MLB. Leon is about the same..They are very close though and both solid.

 

He seems to have done OK at catching Wright's knuckler, but I don't remember whether Vazquez ever did that or how well. As for calling a game, I doubt that Vazquez is any better. I suspect he is better--but not a lot better--at preventing wild pitches and passed balls when catching other guys besides Wright. But is he really better at framing pitches, which some would argue is a very big deal because it affects how the umpires call balls and strikes? I would argue that maybe he isn't because, if he were, he would not have gone back to AAA so quickly after coming up to replace Swihart

 

This is all speculation and opinion on your part. Problem is there are stats to back up how good Vaz is to counter your arguement. He was one of the top framers in the game. He had the best, or one of the best cs%

Catching Wright is a trick for anyone, but both Leon and Vaz caught him well. Pitchers constantly commented on his game calling, pitch framing, and leadership. I watched him steal a LOT of pitches. Meaning he got a lot of balls called strikes because of his framing.

He got sent back because the D wasnt 100% yet from the surgery and the offense had to catch up, which it has. Hes batting around 280 with a 350 obp in AAA, while making solid contact. He also has solid Bb/K numbers. If you choose Leon, thats fine because hes a good catcher. I think his bat will continue to come back to earth and some here wont be so enamored with him. But kets not undermind what Vaz can still do.

Them's my thoughts, nothing more. Feel free to jump all over them.

 

Just did...thanks

 

Good stuff, thanks. To summarize, you think Leon and Vazquez aren't far apart in CS%, catching the knuckler, fielding behind the plate, etc. The two big differences are: Vazquez is better at framing pitches, and Leon is a better hitter. You also think Vazquez is better at calling a game and leadership, but I have my doubts because I sure never saw it in terms of how our guys were pitching when Vazquez was behind the plate. Indeed, since Vazquez went back to AAA, the rotation has gotten steadily better--the bullpen not so much, however.

 

Sox Prospects write-up says Vazquez has gold glove potential even though--when they wrote it--he is far from perfect defensively.

Posted

 

Good stuff, thanks. To summarize, you think Leon and Vazquez aren't far apart in CS%, catching the knuckler, fielding behind the plate, etc. The two big differences are: Vazquez is better at framing pitches, and Leon is a better hitter. You also think Vazquez is better at calling a game and leadership, but I have my doubts because I sure never saw it in terms of how our guys were pitching when Vazquez was behind the plate. Indeed, since Vazquez went back to AAA, the rotation has gotten steadily better--the bullpen not so much, however.

 

Sox Prospects write-up says Vazquez has gold glove potential even though--when they wrote it--he is far from perfect defensively.

 

Never said better at game calling and leadership, but that they were some of his strong points. That wasnt a compairison to Leon, who gets a lot of the same. Honestly, they seem to be very similar. Ive got on record to say I think a tandum of Vaz/Leon would be fine, but BOTH could be starters Imho.

Posted

 

Never said better at game calling and leadership, but that they were some of his strong points. That wasnt a compairison to Leon, who gets a lot of the same. Honestly, they seem to be very similar. Ive got on record to say I think a tandum of Vaz/Leon would be fine, but BOTH could be starters Imho.

 

I was going to say the same thing.

Posted
Something is troubling me - Did Vazquez get sent down very shortly after he had Wright throw a fastball when he had been told not to by Willis? I think that it was a pitch that was last seen in Cambridge somewhere. Hanigan has now been brought back up. That gives them 3 catchers in Boston. I hope he gets the call after Pawtucket finishes their season. I'm just wondering what his future really is in Boston. It would not surprise me at all if he was traded during the off season.
Posted
Something is troubling me - Did Vazquez get sent down very shortly after he had Wright throw a fastball when he had been told not to by Willis? I think that it was a pitch that was last seen in Cambridge somewhere. Hanigan has now been brought back up. That gives them 3 catchers in Boston. I hope he gets the call after Pawtucket finishes their season. I'm just wondering what his future really is in Boston. It would not surprise me at all if he was traded during the off season.

 

I still think Swihart ends up being traded, but with his injury and value uncertainty, maybe Vaz gets traded instead.

 

I'd rather keep Vaz, but it's a close call.

Posted
Hanigan yuk! The guy is either injured or washed up. He has been a shell of his form self.

 

He's just here for defense and the ability to PH for Holaday late in games.

Posted
I still think Swihart ends up being traded, but with his injury and value uncertainty, maybe Vaz gets traded instead.

 

I'd rather keep Vaz, but it's a close call.

 

Oh I like both of them - Vazquez and Swihart. I am just wondering if there is more to the Vazquez story than we are being told. If there is, I wouldn't blame them for being quiet about it. One thing that was painfully honest is that he was not catching at the level predicted and he certainly was not hitting. How much of this was attributable to the surgery and how much wasn't we don't know.

Posted

Vazquez has made adjustments to his swing, which hopefully will translate to better offensive success this time up.

 

That recent success could just be some of the rust falling away after a missed season of development in 2015 with Tommy John surgery. Gedman speculated that perhaps Vazquez wasn’t completely ready for the majors when he was promoted back in April to replace Blake Swihart, and the hitting coach said Vazquez's return to Triple-A in July may have been what was best for him.

 

"Maybe he really wasn’t ready [in April], but he was the best we had at the time," Gedman said. "It's getting back to his basics. He's really done a good job with that. This game is not about the flair. To me, he plays a position that's not about flair. It's a workman attitude. It's about grinding things out, competing day-in and day-out.

Posted
Oh I like both of them - Vazquez and Swihart. I am just wondering if there is more to the Vazquez story than we are being told. If there is, I wouldn't blame them for being quiet about it. One thing that was painfully honest is that he was not catching at the level predicted and he certainly was not hitting. How much of this was attributable to the surgery and how much wasn't we don't know.

 

To me, it looked like he wasnt 100% back from the injury. Still needed to get the accuracy he had back with his throws and the offense was going to have to catch up. Hes hitting really well on AAA and from all reports the D is back to where it was.

As far as the whole tension with Management, I have no idea. Until theres solid proof of that Im not too concerned. I had zero issue with him being sent back to AAA to get back into a groove again. Hes hitting the ball and looking like his old self again.

Posted
Oh I like both of them - Vazquez and Swihart. I am just wondering if there is more to the Vazquez story than we are being told. If there is, I wouldn't blame them for being quiet about it. One thing that was painfully honest is that he was not catching at the level predicted and he certainly was not hitting. How much of this was attributable to the surgery and how much wasn't we don't know.

 

...or how much could be attributed for it just being a rather small sample size?

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