Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Dojji]

I would trade any of them for a parade.

 

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Anyone been watching the world series?

 

Yes, and I've been paying attention to the fact that the Cubs went out and acquired some excellent pitching.

 

Really serving them well this postseason isn't it?

 

Really makes the case to go out and buy pitching, doesn't it?

 

So many X factors go into winning in the playoffs that distilling it down to one thing we did or didn't do, or need to immediately do Or Else We Will Never Win Again, is asinine, serves no purpose but to annoy the people that know better.

[Kimmi]

I don't see where a trade like that actually exists right now. As far as I can see there is no pitcher, much less a trade for a pitcher. The closest thing I can see to a big trade for a pitcher is possibly a trade for a solid middle innings guy from a team in a position to sell one at a reasonable price, Luke Hochevar or someone like him.

 

A trade exists if Dombrowski wanted to get crazy enough. That's kind of my point. If he goes all out to bring in another top pitcher at an astronomical price, that is the 'win now' mentality that is likely to doom the team after the 3 year window. He was able to get away with the huge contract for Price and the large prices he paid for Kimbrel and, to a lesser extent, Pomeranz, because the farm and the young core of the team were in such great shape.

 

Dombrowski should not be looking to trade more of our youngsters in an effort to put us 'over the top' next year. He should be continuing to build and reinforce the farm so that the next wave of players will be ready to go when we possibly lose some of our current youngsters to free agency. Our current team is more or less good to go as is. I think we both agree on that.

[Kimmi]

Bautista might be a good candidate for DH if they can sign him for reasonable money. The interest in him may not be that high.

 

He has tremendous numbers at Fenway, a .972 OPS and 24 HR in 68 games.

 

I am a bit concerned with Bautista's clubhouse presence. I'm not sure that he's the type of player that I'd want.

[Kimmi]

But yeah....let's focus on dh. Because: chicks dig the long ball

 

No, that is another one of those myths. Chicks dig a well pitched, well defended game.

[Kimmi]

Yes, and I've been paying attention to the fact that the Cubs went out and acquired some excellent pitching.

 

Really serving them well this postseason isn't it?

 

Really makes the case to go out and buy pitching, doesn't it?

 

So many X factors go into winning in the playoffs that distilling it down to one thing we did or didn't do, or need to immediately do Or Else We Will Never Win Again, is asinine, serves no purpose but to annoy the people that know better.

 

Whatever team wins the World Series one year, that is the model that all teams should build around the during the offseason, according to the scribes and many fans. In reality, though, it takes a balance. Plus, what works for one team may not work for another.

[Bellhorn04]

But yeah....let's focus on dh. Because: chicks dig the long ball

 

I trust the team's front office to recognize that we have more than one need.

 

I think you have acknowledged that a team needs some offense to get to the playoffs.

 

Not arguing that once you get to the playoffs pitching tends to dominate.

[Spudboy]

I am a bit concerned with Bautista's clubhouse presence. I'm not sure that he's the type of player that I'd want.

 

What makes you feel this way? His altercation at 2nd base?

[Spudboy]

I am learning so much in this thread.

 

Today I have learned that Travis Shaw is an Elite Defender at 3rd base.

[Dojji]

1.4 dWAR. That's a big number. anything over 1 full defensive win is a strong performance at one's position. Dustin Pedroia is a Gold Glove nominee on the back of 1.8 dWAR at second base. JBJ is at 1.6 and is probably going to win a GG. Considering that he wasn't out there in every single situation like those two were, Shaw had a very, very, very good defensive season.

 

Shaw's not flashy, but he's right up there with the best according to Baseball-Reference. And really, did you see Shaw make any great number of mistakes at third this year? Because I didn't. He's very very sound fundamentally as a defensive 3Bman and quietly does his defensive job extremely well. Not bad for a guy who hadn't played 3B full time in years prior to this season.

 

For comparison's sake -- Mike Lowell, Gold Glover and widely considered to be an excellent defensive 3B in his prime, well known for his excellent reflexes and fantastic throwing arm that definitely saved some runs for us before he started to break down in 09, never had a year in which he put up 1 dWAR. He came close in 08 with 0.9. By that standard, Shaw has already put up a better defensive year than at least one Gold Glove winner ever had.

Edited October 30, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

You're focusing way too much on offensive OPS at 3B. We've got enough offense elsewhere on the team that a weak hitter at 3B is tolerable. And Shaw is an elite defender, he returned a lot of defensive value as a third baseman. That's why despite his poor bat, he returned average value by bWAR at 3B last year and why 3B is not a hole. It's an area for potential improvement, that's not the same thing as a "hole."

 

Shaw is an "elite defender" at 1B NOT 3B! He's average at 3B at best. He was 17th out of 33 third basemen in UZR/150 (+1.6). The team placed 15th in UZR/150 at 0.0, so it's not just about offense and OPS at 3B.

 

Look, I said we could still win with some "holes" in the line-up, but that doesn't mean it's not a hole. We had a massive hole at 3B this year. We were clearly the worst in MLB, and it wasn't close. How much worse did the have to be for you to call it a "hole"?

 

I've also said that our two best prospects play 3B and we have Pablo returning. We should improve at 3B, even if we don't make any acquisitions there, but as we look right now, I'd say we rate to finish in the bottom 20-25% in 3B WAR next year. We can argue semantics on whether that is a "hole" or not, but we do look to be weak at 3B in 2017, unless Moncada progresses quickly or a Pablo miracle materializes.

 

I'm fine with not making any 3B additions. I agree we can absorb a couple holes and still have a top 3 offense next year. We'll probably be below average at 3B, C and DH, assuming we add nobody on offense.

 

As for the bullpen that's the same thing. We can improve there. If we don't make a major move our bullpen should probably still be adequate however. Unlike 3B I do predict DD will make a move or two to brace up the middle of the bullpen.

 

I diagree. Losing Ziegler alone is huge. Uehara and Taz will also be missed. Carson Smith is a big question mark and may not return until June. Kelly, Scott and others looked good in September, and maybe Buch or Pom will be in the pen next year, but I'm not thrilled with Kimbrel, we lack a seriuos #2 RP'er who can close, if needed, and we are relying too much on Ross, Barnes, Hembree to not take a step back.

 

I agree that DD will address the pen "hole". The question is, by how much.

[moonslav59]

If there is a hole, it's at DH. If Hanley is DH, then there's a hole at 1B. If Shaw is at 1B, there's a hole at 3B.

 

We cannot count on Shaw to fill a hole at 1B or 3B.

 

Shaw is a hole right now. He may bounce back, but how can you call a guy who lost his job to Hill/Holt/Moncada anything but a "hole"?

[moonslav59]

The team was a 98 Win team, according to its Pythagorean W-L, with the worst 3B and the stinky pen. I agree that both of those areas are areas of weakness that can be upgraded. I don't agree that they are 'glaring' weaknesses.

 

30th in WAR at 3B is a major hole not just a hole.

 

Our stinky pen is losing three of its best pitchers: Ziegler, Uehara and Taz. Worse than "stinky" is a hole.

 

The pen issues will be addressed by DD, and Buch or Pom will be part of the pen, barring injury to a SP'er.

 

[moonslav59]

Whatever team wins the World Series one year, that is the model that all teams should build around the during the offseason, according to the scribes and many fans. In reality, though, it takes a balance. Plus, what works for one team may not work for another.

 

Totally agree. There is one area that modern winning teams all seem to excel at: the bullpen.

 

Why can't we ever have guys like Andrew Miller?

[moonslav59]

I am learning so much in this thread.

 

Today I have learned that Travis Shaw is an Elite Defender at 3rd base.

 

I had soda coming out of my nose on that one!

[Spudboy]

1.4 dWAR. That's a big number. anything over 1 full defensive win is a strong performance at one's position. Dustin Pedroia is a Gold Glove nominee on the back of 1.8 dWAR at second base. JBJ is at 1.6 and is probably going to win a GG. Considering that he wasn't out there in every single situation like those two were, Shaw had a very, very, very good defensive season.

 

Shaw's not flashy, but he's right up there with the best according to Baseball-Reference. And really, did you see Shaw make any great number of mistakes at third this year? Because I didn't. He's very very sound fundamentally as a defensive 3Bman and quietly does his defensive job extremely well. Not bad for a guy who hadn't played 3B full time in years prior to this season.

 

For comparison's sake -- Mike Lowell, Gold Glover and widely considered to be an excellent defensive 3B in his prime, well known for his excellent reflexes and fantastic throwing arm that definitely saved some runs for us before he started to break down in 09, never had a year in which he put up 1 dWAR. He came close in 08 with 0.9. By that standard, Shaw has already put up a better defensive year than at least one Gold Glove winner ever had.

 

Thanks for the edification.

 

I now have reason to suspect the validity of dWAR.

 

Shaw is a decent 3rd baseman but he does not have the reflexes , mobility, range, or even arm to be considered a top flight defender.

 

I watched every game this year and saw almost all the plays that he made. In SpudWAR he is about replacement level or slightly better.

 

And I like Shaw. He should be the starter in 2017 unless someone else shows up big time.

[Spudboy]

I had soda coming out of my nose on that one!

 

I'm here for your enjoyment Moon!

 

By the way, I once promoted a situation where my friend blew a La Cucharacha (sp) , a Tequila / Kaluha shooter drink, out of his nose.

 

I hope you did not stain your clothes.

[moonslav59]

I'm here for your enjoyment Moon!

 

By the way, I once promoted a situation where my friend blew a La Cucharacha (sp) , a Tequila / Kaluha shooter drink, out of his nose.

 

I hope you did not stain your clothes.

 

I once caused a kid to blow a chunk of tomato from his Italian Sandwich out his nose.

[Spudboy]

I once caused a kid to blow a chunk of tomato from his Italian Sandwich out his nose.

 

I bow in awe.

[Nick]

If there is a hole, it's at DH. If Hanley is DH, then there's a hole at 1B. If Shaw is at 1B, there's a hole at 3B.

 

We cannot count on Shaw to fill a hole at 1B or 3B.

 

Shaw is a hole right now. He may bounce back, but how can you call a guy who lost his job to Hill/Holt/Moncada anything but a "hole"?

 

I agree with you, I really do. My point is entering 2017 in reality, we have two holes to fill. Are there options? Sure. It spoke volume that Sox started Holt at 3B in the Division series.

Again, this is a half billion dollar operation. I don't see how DD will go into the season with so many 'holes', however many we have.

[moonslav59]

I agree with you, I really do. My point is entering 2017 in reality, we have two holes to fill. Are there options? Sure. It spoke volume that Sox started Holt at 3B in the Division series.

Again, this is a half billion dollar operation. I don't see how DD will go into the season with so many 'holes', however many we have.

 

I have to think DD will fill the pen hole(s).

 

The other holes are DH and 3B, but with Moncada and Devers so close to ML ready, I can see waiting it out a bit.

 

Beltran might be a short term option for DH, since he can play LF at NL parks, but maybe finding a one year 3B (Todd Frazier) fix might be in store.

[Nick]

I have to think DD will fill the pen hole(s).

 

The other holes are DH and 3B, but with Moncada and Devers so close to ML ready, I can see waiting it out a bit.

 

Beltran might be a short term option for DH, since he can play LF at NL parks, but maybe finding a one year 3B (Todd Frazier) fix might be in store.

 

But what will it cost in players to get Todd Frazier?

[moonslav59]

But what will it cost in players to get Todd Frazier?

 

He's got one year left on his deal at $7.5M. Who they want back might depend on how they are approaching 2017. If they want to try hard to win in 2017, they will want ML talent. If they go into rebuild mode, they might take prospects. They may try to play it both ways and take 4 years of team control of T Shaw plus maybe Matt Barnes and Henry Owens.

 

I'd like to see us try to get David Robertson as well, so maybe we can offer Pomeranz, TShaw and Owens for Robertson and Frazier. That may be too much to give, but I'm not sure about this either: Swihart, T Shaw, Barnes and Johnson.

[cp176]

You have mentioned Todd Frazier numerous times before. I don't get it. For what he would cost, i do not think that it makes any sense at all. You can I am sure justify your thoughts through a little statistical hocus pocus but looks like a change for change sake to me. I call it a wash. If Shaw gets replaced, I think that it will definitely come from within. It is a minor problem.

[oldtimer]

He's got one year left on his deal at $7.5M. Who they want back might depend on how they are approaching 2017. If they want to try hard to win in 2017, they will want ML talent. If they go into rebuild mode, they might take prospects. They may try to play it both ways and take 4 years of team control of T Shaw plus maybe Matt Barnes and Henry Owens.

 

I'd like to see us try to get David Robertson as well, so maybe we can offer Pomeranz, TShaw and Owens for Robertson and Frazier. That may be too much to give, but I'm not sure about this either: Swihart, T Shaw, Barnes and Johnson.

 

The number one weak area going into next season is relief pitching. That has to be addressed due to losing 3 free agents and the weakness of some we had hoped better from, such as Abad.

 

I would rate 3rd base as our second weakest area. Shaw didn't get it done last year and is likely to be marginal at best. I doubt Sandoval can return to that position and he may be more apt to fit the DH role against RHP if at all. I also now doubt Moncada based on what has been happening. Is he the second coming of Castillo or a true ML player in the making? We can get by for a while but I would go for a legitimate ML third baseman and not pin hopes on so many iffy scenarios. Trade the ones we have if need be.

 

DH is also in need of change. If we could get Beltran, then we would have an excellent ML talent with some power to fill the bill for a while. Others, like Young and or Sandoval might help there.

 

Catching is also in need of improvement as probably both our main catching talents are likely to put up weak hitting numbers. Maybe we look within at Swihart. I rate that as our 4th weakest area.

 

SP is not a weakness except when we get into the playoffs. Then only Porcello and perhaps E-Rod can do the job. If a chance comes up for DD to snare a good young SP prospect, without giving away the store, why not take it? Clearly the likelihood of that happening is low but to be competitive in the POs we need some help.

[moonslav59]

You have mentioned Todd Frazier numerous times before. I don't get it. For what he would cost, i do not think that it makes any sense at all. You can I am sure justify your thoughts through a little statistical hocus pocus but looks like a change for change sake to me. I call it a wash. If Shaw gets replaced, I think that it will definitely come from within. It is a minor problem.

 

I said I'm think what they'd want for Frazier is too much. I'm not for giving up too much for Frazier.

 

If we could get Robertson too, who is signed through 2018, then I'd think about overpaying.

 

I would not give Swihart for Frazier.

 

I do not think TShaw, Barnes and Owens is a significant overpay. I'm sure Harmony would say it's a massive underpay.

 

I'm using Frazier as an example, because he is a one year fix that would cost less than a multi-year fix. I'm not a huge Frazier fan, but I'll take him over Valbuena.

[cp176]

Thanks for the edification.

 

I now have reason to suspect the validity of dWAR.

 

Shaw is a decent 3rd baseman but he does not have the reflexes , mobility, range, or even arm to be considered a top flight defender.

 

I watched every game this year and saw almost all the plays that he made. In SpudWAR he is about replacement level or slightly better.

 

And I like Shaw. He should be the starter in 2017 unless someone else shows up big time.

 

I am a supporter of SpudWar statistical analysis. Simple and direct. Paralysis through analysis does not happen in this world.

[moonslav59]

The number one weak area going into next season is relief pitching. That has to be addressed due to losing 3 free agents and the weakness of some we had hoped better from, such as Abad.

 

We have a lot of promise in the pen, but most is speculative, at best. Does anybody really have a lot of faith in Barnes, Hembree, Kelly, Scott and the returning Carson Smith?

 

We had a lot of issues with our pen this year. It looked okay at the end of the season, but let's not kid ourselves. Our pen was not good overall. Subtract from that the probable loss of...

 

Ziegler 30 IP 1.52 ERA

Uehara 47 IP 3.45 ERA

Tazawa 50 IP 4.17 ERA

 

That's 127 IP out of 470 IP or 27%.

 

Our pen had a 4.8 WAR.

 

Ziegler (0.8), Uehara (0.6) and Tazawa (0.2) accounted for 33% of the RP'er WAR. Zeigler and Uehara were in our top 4 and accounted for almost 30% of our pen WAR. This is clearly our weakest link.

 

This is what our pen looks like with no additions:

Closer: Kimbrel

RP2: R Ross (until C Smith returns)

RP3: Kelly

RP4: Barnes

RP5: Hembree

RP6: Scott

RP7: Abad (out of options)

Others: (maybe Buch or Pom), Elias, Workman, Martin, N Ramirez and possibly Owens or Johnson converting from starters.

 

I would rate 3rd base as our second weakest area. Shaw didn't get it done last year and is likely to be marginal at best. I doubt Sandoval can return to that position and he may be more apt to fit the DH role against RHP if at all. I also now doubt Moncada based on what has been happening. Is he the second coming of Castillo or a true ML player in the making? We can get by for a while but I would go for a legitimate ML third baseman and not pin hopes on so many iffy scenarios. Trade the ones we have if need be.

 

I see no reason to imply Moncada may be comparable to Castillo. Moncada's sample size in tiny, and most of his issues are with defense and striking out. My biggest worry is his defense and how long it might take him to become ML ready on defense. That's why I have mentioned DH for him, until he learns a position. I know that sounds like a contradiction, but MLB players do learn things in practice too.

 

 

DH is also in need of change. If we could get Beltran, then we would have an excellent ML talent with some power to fill the bill for a while. Others, like Young and or Sandoval might help there.

 

If we significantly improve the pen and find a one year fiz at 3B, I think the DH spot might be okay with a Pablo-Young, Swihart-Young or Moncada-Young platoon. If they struggle, DH's are easier to find mid season than anyone else.

 

 

Catching is also in need of improvement as probably both our main catching talents are likely to put up weak hitting numbers. Maybe we look within at Swihart. I rate that as our 4th weakest area.

 

I do think our catcher offense is likely to be a weak point, but with 3 catchers showing promise, I think we'll go with what we got. If we end up trading Swihart, we may pick up a vet for a short term deal.

 

 

SP is not a weakness except when we get into the playoffs. Then only Porcello and perhaps E-Rod can do the job. If a chance comes up for DD to snare a good young SP prospect, without giving away the store, why not take it? Clearly the likelihood of that happening is low but to be competitive in the POs we need some help.

 

I'm always for exploring ways to improve the rotation from or near the top, but with Buch likely returning, we'll have 6 guys that finished in the top 30 in ERA- for one half or the other in 2016. None seemed like a fluke, so I think we'll stand pat here, unless Quintana or Sale become available. Even then, the return cost cannot be too high.

[cp176]

What makes you feel this way? His altercation at 2nd base?

 

Don't get me wrong here - I am not for signing Bautista but what did he do that makes anyone question his attitude? When Hanley Ramirez was signed, there were concerns expressed about his attitude. Some were made by me. It has proven to be a non-issue.

[moonslav59]

If we do go for a DH type, I think it should be for as short a term as we can bargain for- maybe 1 or 2 years. That would likely exclude EE, but maybe Bautista or Beltran would fit the bill.

 

Too bad Jose B can't play 3B anymore. (He hasn't since 2011.)

[Kimmi]

What makes you feel this way? His altercation at 2nd base?

 

No, there's not really one significant incident. Little things that seem to draw controversy or 'bother' his teammates, like barking at the umps a lot over strike calls, things he said regarding his contract negotiations at the beginning of the year, or statements like the ones he made this postseason regarding 'circumstances' or 'boots'.

 

They may be nothing. A fellow poster who lives in Canada seems to think that he rubs people the wrong way and that the Jays really don't want him back. Again, it may be nothing, or it may be something.