Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[jacksonianmarch]

Kopech has the raw stuff to be a starter. You can rush him to the bigs and basically guarantee he stays in the pen, or you can let him develop his secondary and tertiary pitches so he could be an option in the rotation. It's always enticing. Just remember, we did the same thing with Joba and it ruined his shoulder and he was never the same again

[Dojji]

People said the same thing about Daniel Bard, Jacko. I don't know of a single starter that hit 100 consistently and was able to stay in the field consistently. If they exist they are vanishingly rare.

 

I think Kopech either eases back on velocity to gain command, and then maybe starts, or else he stays in the pen.

[Spudboy]

That is plain and simply the wrong way to look at UFA signings. Pablo was making what he was making because of price controls built into the MLB system for young players, which is a built in incentive to encourage teams to develop young players in the first place. He had reached a point in his career where those price controls went away. Expecting him not to make more money in that environment, in the first year he could FINALLY be allowed to ask for what the market would bear rather than being forced against his will to settle for less money, is either ignorant or literally insane -- take your pick.

 

It's a pity that the moment he started earning a market value for a person of his skillset, the skills went away, but comparing cost-controlled years (or buyout years that young players agree to to get the money rolling early) to UFA years and expecting UFA's to earn no more than the money they settled for only because they were forced to, is ludicrious. The market simply does not work that way, no market does, no market should.

 

UFA's make what baseball players are really worth That's why they are called UFA's, Unrestricted Free Agents. Everyone else makes less because the CBA robs them of their bargaining power. Expecting UFA's to act like RFA's just sets you up for disappointment -- it almost never happens that a player will sign a deal that team-friendly unless they have literally no choice, the only obvious exception I can think of off the top of my head is Tim Wakefield and his perpetual $4M option.

 

Giant lulz.

[Spudboy]

Even if he maintained the same level of downward trajectory that he had during his SF days, he would still have been a terrible signing.

 

Agreed.

[sk7326]

Kopech has the raw stuff to be a starter. You can rush him to the bigs and basically guarantee he stays in the pen, or you can let him develop his secondary and tertiary pitches so he could be an option in the rotation. It's always enticing. Just remember, we did the same thing with Joba and it ruined his shoulder and he was never the same again

 

He doesn't have a second pitch ... that means there is not the raw stuff.

 

The issue with Joba was that the Yankees refused to commit one way or another. It has the smell of Torre winning a tussle with Cashman. (or George breaking said tie) Bring him up for the stretch is fine - worked well for David Price. It was the rest of it which was stupid.

[moonslav59]

It was pretty clear that Pablo was in decline over the last few seasons and his #'s right handed were in free-fall.

 

I wouldn't really call a drop from .789 to .758 to .739 a clear downward trend, although he drop a lot the year before his last 3 in SF. He was yo-yoing for 4 years prior to thos last 3 years from 847 to 943 to 732 to 909.

 

His worst year was 2010 not 2014.

 

I'm not defending the guy, and I'm not saying he didn't decline in numbers, but he was 27 his last year in SF, and it wasn't clear the decline was something locked in for good.

 

His L-R split differential has been:

2010 -.190

2011 -.238

2012 -.064

2013 -.100

2014 -.161

Career -.162

 

His splits always worried me as they had with Crawford and HanRam at the time of signing as well. I'd never pay someone that kind of money, when their stats show they deserve to platoon probably from day 1.

 

Again, I'm not defending him, but he had an OPS between .739 and .789 his last 3 years at SF. Those numbers were pretty good when compared to 3Bmen in MLB. His OPS+ was between 111 and 123 those 3 years. His drop off to 76 here was shocking.

 

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't really call a drop from .789 to .758 to .739 a clear downward trend, although he drop a lot the year before his last 3 in SF.

 

You wouldn't? What would you call it?

[Dojji]

I wouldn't really call a drop from .789 to .758 to .739 a clear downward trend, although he drop a lot the year before his last 3 in SF. He was yo-yoing for 4 years prior to thos last 3 years from 847 to 943 to 732 to 909.

 

His worst year was 2010 not 2014.

 

I'm not defending the guy, and I'm not saying he didn't decline in numbers, but he was 27 his last year in SF, and it wasn't clear the decline was something locked in for good.

 

His L-R split differential has been:

2010 -.190

2011 -.238

2012 -.064

2013 -.100

2014 -.161

Career -.162

 

His splits always worried me as they had with Crawford and HanRam at the time of signing as well. I'd never pay someone that kind of money, when their stats show they deserve to platoon probably from day 1.

 

Again, I'm not defending him, but he had an OPS between .739 and .789 his last 3 years at SF. Those numbers were pretty good when compared to 3Bmen in MLB. His OPS+ was between 111 and 123 those 3 years. His drop off to 76 here was shocking.

 

 

For a worthwhile comparison, compare Pedroia's numbers over the last 4 years, which showed a downward trend -- which reversed this year because he was finally fully healthy again.

[Dojji]

you wouldn't? What would you call it?

 

sss

[a700hitter]

sss

Three years?

[Eddy Ballgame]

This too. I preferred Headley, but there is certainly some solid rationale for signing Pablo.

 

It was pretty clear that Pablo was in decline over the last few seasons and his #'s right handed were in free-fall.

 

I'm not saying I liked the signing at all, I'm just saying that there were other teams willing to pay him what the Sox did & they weren't bidding against themselves as someone suggested.

 

Also, ballplayers are typically entering their prime at 27, so they obviously felt there were legit reasons why he wasn't "trending" the right way.

[Dojji]

Three years?

 

Three data points. If you're using end points of each season to establish a trend, there are only 3 data points here, the definition of SSS

[a700hitter]

Three data points. If you're using end points of each season to establish a trend, there are only 3 data points here, the definition of SSS

Those numbers accumulate a lot of data over a three year period. It is not as if he played in only a handful of games in any of those years. He had combined almost 1,700 Plate Appearances. I would not call that a small sample size because it is expressed in 3 statistics.

[Nick]

It was just unfortunate that we couldn't trade for Donaldson. I realize that we tried. Athletics were not interested at the time but then something changed to make a trade with Toronto.

 

He would fit nicely at 3B for Red Sox.

 

How about a trade for Votto? Would Cincy go for second tier prospects just to get rid of hefty money owed? I've always liked Votto. Hell it's a great name.

[Nick]

I refuse to believe one inning trial would ruin any pitcher in majors. If a pitcher can't deal with distress, he'll never make it.

 

You bring a kid in a meaningless game, 16-2 Red Sox up in the 7th inning. If it works, he gets another shot. If walks first 3 batters, then he's done.

 

You just never know. You talk to the kid. You tell him your exact expectations. THROW STRIKES. I DON'T CARE IF YOU GET HIT.

[moonslav59]

For a worthwhile comparison, compare Pedroia's numbers over the last 4 years, which showed a downward trend -- which reversed this year because he was finally fully healthy again.

 

And, Pedey was older when he "reversed" than every age year of Pablo's contract.

 

I'm not defending Pablo or the choice Sox management made. I hated the choice, but for some to say it was without merit, is not really fair.

[Spudboy]

Those numbers accumulate a lot of data over a three year period. It is not as if he played in only a handful of games in any of those years. He had combined almost 1,700 Plate Appearances. I would not call that a small sample size because it is expressed in 3 statistics.

 

You are wasting your breath Old Man.

 

1700 AB sounds like a legit sample to me and any Scientist I have worked with.

[Slasher9]

people often forget that many times ownership thinks about the business side of signing a player to a contract first and foremost. not just the baseball aspect. panda jerseys, tshirts, hats, merch was a YUUUUGE seller in SF. until The Butterball proved to be an east coast disaster there was no reason for ownership to think Panda merch wouldnt be flying off the shelves.....

it's the same reason we drove a brinks truck to Dice-K and the Japanese Market.....

[Dojji]

I dislike judging signing decisions based strictly on the outcome. Judging present value based on the outcome of the contract is fair. Judging the decision to sign a player strictly and only because of the end result is IMHO very wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't really call a drop from .789 to .758 to .739 a clear downward trend, although he drop a lot the year before his last 3 in SF. He was yo-yoing for 4 years prior to thos last 3 years from 847 to 943 to 732 to 909.

 

His worst year was 2010 not 2014.

 

I'm not defending the guy, and I'm not saying he didn't decline in numbers, but he was 27 his last year in SF, and it wasn't clear the decline was something locked in for good.

 

His L-R split differential has been:

2010 -.190

2011 -.238

2012 -.064

2013 -.100

2014 -.161

Career -.162

 

His splits always worried me as they had with Crawford and HanRam at the time of signing as well. I'd never pay someone that kind of money, when their stats show they deserve to platoon probably from day 1.

 

Again, I'm not defending him, but he had an OPS between .739 and .789 his last 3 years at SF. Those numbers were pretty good when compared to 3Bmen in MLB. His OPS+ was between 111 and 123 those 3 years. His drop off to 76 here was shocking.

 

 

And Chase Headley's last 3 years were:

 

2012 .875

2013 .747

2014 .700

[a700hitter]

And Chase Headley's last 3 years were:

 

2012 .875

2013 .747

2014 .700

And what did he cost?

[moonslav59]

And Chase Headley's last 3 years were:

 

2012 .875

2013 .747

2014 .700

 

...but, at least he can still bend over and tie his shoes.

[Kimmi]

And, Pedey was older when he "reversed" than every age year of Pablo's contract.

 

I'm not defending Pablo or the choice Sox management made. I hated the choice, but for some to say it was without merit, is not really fair.

 

I didn't like the signing either, mostly because of the length of the contract, but you are absolutely right. It is unfair to say that the signing was without merit.

[Kimmi]

I dislike judging signing decisions based strictly on the outcome. Judging present value based on the outcome of the contract is fair. Judging the decision to sign a player strictly and only because of the end result is IMHO very wrong.

 

You're on a roll Dojji.

[Bellhorn04]

And what did he cost?

 

4 years, 52 million. He was a better value choice, no question. My point is that his numbers were showing an even more severe regression than Pablo.

[Bellhorn04]

...but, at least he can still bend over and tie his shoes.

 

And here I was trying to support your point.

[Maxbialystock]

255 lbs, 5'10" + doubling his salary = a whole lot of risk. Two rotten years so far only confirm the risk. So does the departure of Cherington.

[a700hitter]

255 lbs, 5'10" + doubling his salary = a whole lot of risk. Two rotten years so far only confirm the risk. So does the departure of Cherington.

255 is his high school weight

[Dojji]

255 lbs, 5'10" + doubling his salary = a whole lot of risk. Two rotten years so far only confirm the risk. So does the departure of Cherington.

ANY signing contains risk.

 

I would agree with you 100% if you hadn't bothered to mention doubling his salary. Pablo was going to make bank no matter who signed him, his profile was too high to suspect otherwise. Again, I agree with your conclusion, but your reasoning is not valid. This is one of those areas where how you get the answer matters as much as what your answer is.

[SinceYaz]

Clay has fallen so far down that he has been moved to the BP. So yes, the expectation from him is no longer that of a #1 or #2, but rather to pitch well enough to give the team a chance. Not that I have lost hope with him, but I no longer have ace expectations with him.

 

To be fair, the fact that he only pitched 4+ innings is not his fault. He has been in the pen and was no longer stretched out. He was on a pitch limit of about 65-70 pitches.

 

He is now pitching as a spot starter. In that role, he did his job. Worth $13 mil? No, but he did his job for that start.

 

 

Much more satisfied with his last effort! I am more than happy to pass on kudos. If he is poised to give us that partial season that is close to outstanding, it couldn't come at a better time.