Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Bellhorn04]

no i don't think we can. Personally i think both stats have their strong points. I tend to be one that thinks it matters rather little HOW outs are recorded so I favor bWAR but I feel that at the least understanding how the 2 stats differ helps inform us even more about our athletes.

 

I understand what you're saying, but there's something innately confusing when you have 2 rating systems that can produce such widely diverging values.

[jacksonianmarch]

Price reminds me of CC in a lot of ways. First of all, Price has had a pretty significant velocity drop (1.4mph) but it represents a 2.8mph drop from his peak. CC had drops in velo from 2011 to 2012 without losing effectiveness. But once he dropped down to 91mph in 2013 (down 3.1mph off peak), he lost a ton of effectiveness. His peripherals took a slight drop, although not too far off career norms, but the HR rate exploded. From there, the velocity tanked due to injury in 2014 and have stabilized around 90mph since and he has had to learn how to be a pitcher and not a K machine. Price seems to be experiencing that drop. There is a ton of miles on his arm. He's dropping off his peak and his HR rate is up. CC is finally rounding into form as a back end rotation option once he pitched more to contact, added a cutter and basically became a crafty lefty. The HR rate is down as is the K rate. And the BABIP normalized. When CC was really struggling, he was giving up tons of bombs and had a huge BABIP. I don't really consider that luck related, just that he was getting lit up. Price might need to get a little more crafty to deal with the decline in his stuff

[d-money]

Price reminds me of CC in a lot of ways. First of all, Price has had a pretty significant velocity drop (1.4mph) but it represents a 2.8mph drop from his peak. CC had drops in velo

from 2011 to 2012 without losing effectiveness. But once he dropped down to 91mph in 2013 (down 3.1mph off peak), he lost a ton of effectiveness. His peripherals took a slight drop, although not too far off career norms, but the HR rate exploded. From there, the velocity tanked due to injury in 2014 and have stabilized around 90mph since and he has had to learn how to be a pitcher and not a K machine. Price seems to be experiencing that drop. There is a ton of miles on his arm. He's dropping off his peak and his HR rate is up. CC is finally rounding into form as a back end rotation option once he pitched more to contact, added a cutter and basically became a crafty lefty. The HR rate is down as is the K rate. And the BABIP normalized. When CC was really struggling, he was giving up tons of bombs and had a huge BABIP. I don't really consider that luck related, just that he was getting lit up. Price might need to get a little more crafty to deal with the decline in his stuff

 

His velocity's still good. Not even close to Sabathia and he hasn't had an injury. His location has been terrible.

[oldtimer]

Agreed. The bullpen got Tazawa back and with Kelly coming we may not see the horror story of last night repeated. Kimbrel is not that far away either.

[moonslav59]

I get the idea of xFIP trying to separate thy luck from the game, but I feel it favors strike out pitchers over pitchers who get more batters out.

 

I like to look at xFIP, but I value ERA-,WHIP & OPS against more.

[jacksonianmarch]

D-money, he's down 1.4mph since last year and 2.8 off his peak. If you're young, you may not remember the days when CC was a fire baller, but he was

[oldtimer]

The latest meltdown in the bull pen was Matt Barnes. Two singles and a walk in which he appeared to try to overthrow. Tazawa came in and did a good job of getting out of it with only two runs and Ziegler saved it. He looked like the best investment we have made. At least we escaped with a win this time. I doubt if the Twins hitting has come along as far as it has looked against Red Sox Pitching, so we need to get it back together in a hurry.

[d-money]

D-money, he's down 1.4mph since last year and 2.8 off his peak. If you're young, you may not remember the days when CC was a fire baller, but he was

 

He can still throw 94 to 95 at times. That's still good if he can locate it. He needs to work on mixing his pitches.

[jacksonianmarch]

D, I'm talking about his average fastball. Price used to average 95

[Kimmi]

Price's bWAR is 1.5, which seems realistic.

 

So can we say that bWAR for pitchers is more reliable than fWAR?

 

No, I would not go that far. Looking at the other names of the top fWAR pitchers, I think that fWAR is pretty reliable. I just think that Price has some fluky stats right now. His K/W is very strong while giving up a lot of hits. How often does it happen that one of the top pitchers in terms of Ks is also the worst in terms of hits allowed?

 

It is debatable which version of WAR is better for pitchers, but I still prefer fWAR. I think that overall it gives a better valuation of how well a pitcher has actually pitched. In terms of predictive value, even though neither one is great, I think most 'experts' are in agreement that fWAR does a much better job.

 

That said, as with any stat, the more stats you look at, along with using the 'eye' test, the better the assessment.

[Kimmi]

Sorry HFX. Pom is our #3 starter. Price is our #4 at best.

Like I posted a week or so ago.....price will pitch out of the pen IF we make the playoffs. Or at least he deserves to......

 

IMO, there is no way that Price pitches out of the pen.

[Kimmi]

no i don't think we can. Personally i think both stats have their strong points. I tend to be one that thinks it matters rather little HOW outs are recorded so I favor bWAR but I feel that at the least understanding how the 2 stats differ helps inform us even more about our athletes.

 

Kimmi, yes Price is surrendering a ton of hits but IMHO it's nott all bad for Price. He is nowhere near to living up to his deal ofc but he's not pitching like a liability either. With last night factored in his WHIP is still below 1.3 and he's logging a lot of innings, both of thise facts do not change because he's put up some stinkers.

 

Yes it is frustrating when the guy who of all our starters is supposed to be reliably dominant is instead merely adequate. Yes we're getting a 4 when we paid for a 1. No that is not a good reason to abandon our patience and objectivity.

 

I do not disagree with any of what you posted. How have I abandoned my patience and/or objectivity? I have never said that Price is a liability. I have never called for him to be DFA'd, sent to the BP, or anything else along those lines. I acknowledged that he has good peripherals and that his ERA is not a true indicator of how he has pitched.

 

I more or less am sharing the same opinion and frustration that you have of him.

[Kimmi]

I get the idea of xFIP trying to separate thy luck from the game, but I feel it favors strike out pitchers over pitchers who get more batters out.

 

I like to look at xFIP, but I value ERA-,WHIP & OPS against more.

 

K/W ratio is typically a very good indicator of pitching success.

[robert vonhalle]

K/W ratio is typically a very good indicator of pitching success.

 

all i know is that our pitching sucks!

[Nick]

Ziegler is succeeding because he lives in the lower 1/4 of the strike zone. Price looks to throw much more in the upper zone.

[Bellhorn04]

Ziegler is succeeding because he lives in the lower 1/4 of the strike zone. Price looks to throw much more in the upper zone.

 

As they each have throughout their careers, right?

[kenmeister]

So we started out with starting pitching depth and now 2 of them in the pen. One ready for a straight jacket. I know no one wants to lose any more prospects, but I have a feeling at least one more big move is coming. I love Ziggy, not sure yet on Pom. If Erod keeps it together, we know he can be real good and who knows how good down the road. DD gets paid to make these decisions. If him and UH Henry feel they are all in for this year, anything can happen. I really don't think Moncada is going anywhere, but who knows. I want a team built to contend for a few years, so they better make smart moves...

 

I think Drew Pomeranz' start tonight is the most important start of the season for the Red Sox to date. If he's good, I think we can all relax a bit. Otherwise, I think DD has to make another move. If we can rely on Drew and E-Rod, then we really do have 4 capable starters, and Price becomes essentially a 5th starter. I hope that's not a big if.

[Slasher9]

I think Drew Pomeranz' start tonight is the most important start of the season for the Red Sox to date. If he's good, I think we can all relax a bit. Otherwise, I think DD has to make another move. If we can rely on Drew and E-Rod, then we really do have 4 capable starters, and Price becomes essentially a 5th starter. I hope that's not a big if.

 

jesus christ. this post is on point.

[Michfan]

And Pomeranz' shouldn't be intimidated going up against Verlander. he has only been average this year.

[Kimmi]

And Pomeranz' shouldn't be intimidated going up against Verlander. he has only been average this year.

 

Verlander has been really good in his last 4 starts, albeit two of those starts were against the Rays and the Twins.

 

I agree that this is an important start for Pomeranz, not only in terms of winning the game, but also in terms of Pomeranz' confidence. We all know how brutal the fans and the media can be. The last thing we want is for him to get off to a poor start here and not be able to recover under the continual microscope.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Drew Pomeranz' start tonight is the most important start of the season for the Red Sox to date. If he's good, I think we can all relax a bit. Otherwise, I think DD has to make another move. If we can rely on Drew and E-Rod, then we really do have 4 capable starters, and Price becomes essentially a 5th starter. I hope that's not a big if.

 

I am dubious that Pom and E-Rod will make Price look like our 5th starter.

[S5Dewey]

I am dubious that Pom and E-Rod will make Price look like our 5th starter.

 

I just hope they don't make Price look like our 3rd starter. :-(

[moonslav59]

Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post

I get the idea of xFIP trying to separate thy luck from the game, but I feel it favors strike out pitchers over pitchers who get more batters out.

 

I like to look at xFIP, but I value ERA-,WHIP & OPS against more.

K/W ratio is typically a very good indicator of pitching success.

 

Personally, I've always thought K's were over-rated. What good is it for Price to get all those K's, if batters are hitting him well, because he's always around or in the strike zone?

 

Sox starters:

 

WAR

2.9 Price

2.6 Porcello

2.3 Wright

 

xFIP

3.25 Pricde

4.00 Porcello

4.31 Wright

 

K-BB%

21.1 Price

16.1 Porcello

11.7 Wright

 

Really? Do any of the above numbers really show who our best pitcher has been this year?

 

While I do value WAR and xFIP, my favorite pitcher starts are ...

 

ERA-

60 Wright

80 Porcello

101 Price

 

and...

 

WHIP

1.15 Wright

1.15 Porcello

1.28 Price

 

OPS against

.601 Wright

.699 Porcello

.745 Price

 

I think my stats tell a better story of 2016.

 

Let's look at 2014 to 2016 (250+ IP). Which list better represents who the top pitchers have been? (In order top down)

 

A- Kershaw, Syndergaard, Stasburg, Arrieta, Carrasco, Kluber, Sale, deGrom, Price, Scherzer

 

B- Kershaw, Arrieta, Greinke, Cueto, Sale, deGrom, Lester, Felix, Scherzer, Hamels

 

C- Kershaw, Arrieta, Scherzer, Greinke, Sale, Bumgarner, Carrasco, Cueto, Tanaka, deGrom

 

I think B is best followed by C.

 

 

Answer:

A is xFIP

B is ERA-

C is WHIP

[Kimmi]

I have nothing against the argument that you presented, and nothing against the stats that you quoted. They are all good stats to use and, as always, the more you look at, the better the story you'll get. I'm not sure that one particular stat is clearly better than any of the others.

 

That said, Siera and xFIP are the two best predictors of future ERA. If I were going to make a bet on who will be our best pitcher going forward, I would go with Price, then Porcello, then Wright, in that order.

[Nick]

I go with my eye test

 

Wright was the best starting pitcher until 5 starts ago, when he started pitching poorly (I realize he may just had one blow up inning). Porcello to me always throws strikes and I like that about him. Price pitched badly at beginning but got the run support, pitched better afterwards but did not get the run support and now is on a downward trend again.

 

If Pomeranz has a good outing and returns to his norm for the season, then Price is dead last, 5th starter. Ever since E Rod has given up throwing change up and focused more on slider, he's pitched better.

Edited July 25, 2016 by Nick

[Kimmi]

I go with my eye test

 

Wright was the best starting pitcher until 5 starts ago, when he started pitching poorly (I realize he may just had one blow up inning). Porcello to me always throws strikes and I like that about him. Price pitched badly at beginning but got the run support, pitched better afterwards but did not get the run support and now is on a downward trend again.

 

If Pomeranz has a good outing and returns to his norm for the season, then Price is dead last, 5th starter. Ever since E Rod has given up throwing change up and focused more on slider, he's pitched better.

 

It is interesting that a few posters view Price as the possible 5th starter going forward.

[Nick]

It is interesting that a few posters view Price as the possible 5th starter going forward.

 

We want him to be the ace....he's inconsistent and aces usually are more dependable.

[Kimmi]

We want him to be the ace....he's inconsistent and aces usually are more dependable.

 

No doubt. I have been very vocal about him not pitching like an ace and about how disappointing he's been.

 

However, I won't go so far as to say that he's our #5 pitcher.

[Nick]

I'm crying like a little girl.....I thought we'd go no worse than 3-1 against the Twins...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm crying like a little girl.....I thought we'd go no worse than 3-1 against the Twins...

 

Crazy s*** happens in this game...we had just gone 2-0 against one of the best teams.