Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Emp9]

One of the main problems here is that the Sox don't have very many mid-tier prospects. The kind of prospects you don't mind risking letting go for short term deadline rentals.

[Slasher9]

personally i was satisfied with our staff heading into Spring Training.

We spent the $$$ and got the best FA SP available.

Price taking the "Ace" spot makes the rest of the guys fall into place.

i expected E-Rod - Porcello to fight to be #2.

the other to be #3.

ClayKelly to battle be #4.

the other to be #5.

and Wright/one of the kids to battle for the inevitable injury to one of the above.

Even when KneE-Rod got injured in ST i was ok with the above scenario.

 

We traded for a couple top tier RP's.

 

Price started slow. as in sucky.

thing1/thing2 have been a disaster.

Erod's injury and lack of working on third pitch in ST has hurt more than i thought it would.

the kids we tried were...not good.

 

Smith is done for the season.

Kimbrell has coughed some up.

 

pitching has been Murphy's Law for the Red Sox this season thus far. hopefully that changes. soon.

[mvp 78]

One of the main problems here is that the Sox don't have very many mid-tier prospects. The kind of prospects you don't mind risking letting go for short term deadline rentals.

 

So one of the best minor league systems today (with 3-4 untouchable prospects) has no mid-tier prospects?

[Bellhorn04]

One of the main problems here is that the Sox don't have very many mid-tier prospects. The kind of prospects you don't mind risking letting go for short term deadline rentals.

 

When was the last time the Sox acquired a good starting pitcher at the deadline for mid-tier prospects?

[Emp9]

So one of the best minor league systems today (with 3-4 untouchable prospects) has no mid-tier prospects?

 

No. I never said "none". I said "very few". And Yes, the farm gets very thin after our blue chip prospects are counted. Ot's been like this for years now. It seems to paints us in a corner for a bluckbuster trade or nothing. Or a really dumb, short-sighted, sure to be regretful, short-term fix.

[Emp9]

When was the last time the Sox acquired a good starting pitcher at the deadline for mid-tier prospects?

 

Would you trade Moncada for a rental?

[Bellhorn04]

Would you trade Moncada for a rental?

 

No. But I'm questioning what kind of pitcher you can get for mid-tier prospects.

[cp176]

Would you trade Moncada for a rental?

 

Moncada might be the one player that I would not include in a trade for anyone. Based on what he has done and what he looks like, he may be one of those very special players that don't come along very often. He looks like a linebacker, runs as well as the best base stealers and hits for power. Don't trade Moncada. When you see him with his teammates in Portland, he just doesn't fit the picture.

[mvp 78]

Moncada might be the one player that I would not include in a trade for anyone. Based on what he has done and what he looks like, he may be one of those very special players that don't come along very often. He looks like a linebacker, runs as well as the best base stealers and hits for power. Don't trade Moncada. When you see him with his teammates in Portland, he just doesn't fit the picture.

 

Would you trade him for Chris Sale?

[Emp9]

No. But I'm questioning what kind of pitcher you can get for mid-tier prospects.

 

Right, I was assuming you wouldn't. Rest assured that no is the correct answer.

 

To your question. That's difficult to say, as you know. Someone slightly better than Buckholz, or Owens, or Kelly, or Elias??? ... Look, I was merely pointing out that we have had very little wiggle room when it comes to trades these past few years due to the consensus that our farm system is extremely top heavy. Take away the piss poor FA options, and the league parity, & the poor SP climate out of the equation, the lack of mid-tier prospects makes it that more difficult.

 

I read a blog that the Royals would do well to consider an early rebuild. The blogger also said he would demand nothing less than a top prospect back for Volquez. I'd be interested in hearing any thoughts from anyone on TalkSox about such an example. I personally wouldn't give up one of our top prospects for Volquez, and yet I find myself hard-pressed to make a hypothetical trade proposal given what there is to work with after Devers. Any thoughts?

[Slasher9]

Would you trade him for Chris Sale?

 

done.

[Emp9]

Moncada might be the one player that I would not include in a trade for anyone. Based on what he has done and what he looks like, he may be one of those very special players that don't come along very often. He looks like a linebacker, runs as well as the best base stealers and hits for power. Don't trade Moncada. When you see him with his teammates in Portland, he just doesn't fit the picture.

 

Right, I agree. Would you trade Devers for a rental? (Hint: I sure as f*** would not)

[Spudboy]

Right, I was assuming you wouldn't. Rest assured that no is the correct answer.

 

To your question. That's difficult to say, as you know. Someone slightly better than Buckholz, or Owens, or Kelly, or Elias??? ... Look, I was merely pointing out that we have had very little wiggle room when it comes to trades these past few years due to the consensus that our farm system is extremely top heavy. Take away the piss poor FA options, and the league parity, & the poor SP climate out of the equation, the lack of mid-tier prospects makes it that more difficult.

 

I read a blog that the Royals would do well to consider an early rebuild. The blogger also said he would demand nothing less than a top prospect back for Volquez. I'd be interested in hearing any thoughts from anyone on TalkSox about such an example. I personally wouldn't give up one of our top prospects for Volquez, and yet I find myself hard-pressed to make a hypothetical trade proposal given what there is to work with after Devers. Any thoughts?

 

A Lot to chew on in this post.

 

Are you saying the lack of mid-tier prospects in our system makes it difficult to trade because the Sox don't want to move upper level prospects, or are you saying that other teams would prefer to have mid level prospect to our top prospects? I would think that most teams would want our top guys.

 

It's interesting that you mention Buch and then later discuss trading a top prospect for Volquez. See, to me, Vloquez is another Buch. The differences being Buch has mental lapses while Volquez has psychotic breaks.

 

Buch seems to have a better record of demonstrating elite stuff for decent stints.

 

I would not trade a top prospect for Volquez. The return is, in total, minimal. And that is just not enough to be worthwhile in my book.

 

Just my opinions, though.

[moonslav59]

That's why you don't wait until the trade deadline to make your moves. Making a trade when the other team has you over a barrel is bad business.

 

GET PITCHING IN THE OFFSEASON YOU DUMMIES!

 

Exactly, and this past winter was loaded with high end and mid tier SP'ers on the FA market.

 

Here's the list again...

 

$207M/6 Z Greinke 10-3 3.61 2.2 WAR (14th)

 

$130M/6 J Cueto (w/opt out) 11-1 2.06 3.4 WAR (3rd)

 

$110M/5 J Zimmerman 9-4 3.81 2.0 WAR (20th)

 

$90M/5 J Samardzja 8-4 3.59 1.0 WAR (72nd)

 

$80M/5 M Leake 5-5 4.25 0.5 WAR (107th)

 

$80M/5 W-Y Chen (w/opt out) 4-2 5.00 0.3 WAR (126th)

 

$48M/3 S Kazmir (w/opt out) 5-3 4.52 0.6 WAR (101th)

 

$70M/5 I Kennedy (w/opt out) 5-6 4.19 0.0 WAR (180th)

 

$32M/2 J Lackey 7-4 3.29 2.0 WAR (23rd)

 

$36M/3 J A Happ 9-3 3.42 1.1 WAR (68th)

 

$16M/2 M Pelfrey 1-7 5.19 0.0 WAR (186th)

 

$7.25M/1 B Colon 6-3 3.05 1.5 WAR (42nd)

 

$7.0M/1 D Fister 8-3 3.21 0.7 WAR (87th)

 

$6.0M/1 R Hill 8-3 2.25 2.0 WAR (17th)

 

$11.5M/2 C Young 1-7 7.07 -1.2 WAR 232 out of 232!)

 

$30M/6 Y Sierra n/a

 

$5.0M C Lewis 6-1 3.21 1.3 WAR (55th)

 

$25M/8 K Maeda 6-5 2.91 1.9 WAR (25th)

 

$4.25M/1 T Cahil n/a

 

$4.0M/1 J Blanton n/a

 

$3.0M/1 M Latos 4-2 4.62 0.0 WAR (173rd)

 

$2.5M/1 B Norris 2-5 5.80 0.3 WAR (130th)

 

$2.5M/1 T Lincecum 1-1 5.00 0.0 WAR (184th)

 

$2.0M/1 A Simon 2-6 8.77 -0.7 WAR (229th)

 

$2.0M/1 R Vogelsong 0-0 1.29 0.2 WAR (146th)

 

$1.7M H Noesi n/a

 

$1.5M B Beachy n/a

 

$1.5M J Turner n/a

 

$1.0M/1 G Floyd n/a

 

Note: Cole Hamels is 8-1 2.79 0.8 WAR (82nd) & Jamie Shields 2-9 6.22 0.0 WAR (183rd) and Shelby Miller 2-7 6.79 -0.5 (225th)

 

Worst Sox:

Buch 2-6 6.28 -0.3 WAR (220th out of 232) B4 today

Owens 0-0 5.11 -0.3 WAR (217th)

ERod 1-2 6.41 -0.3 WAR (215th)

Elias 0.1 15.75 -0.2 WAR (210th)

Kelly 2-0 8.46 -0.2 WAR (206th)

O'Sullivan 1-0 7.84 0.0 WAR (166th)

 

Certainly more choices then than now, but many flopped.

 

Some good bargains too.

[Slasher9]

FTR - Cueto was my #1, #2, and #3 want this offseason.....

[iortiz]

That's why you don't wait until the trade deadline to make your moves. Making a trade when the other team has you over a barrel is bad business.

 

GET PITCHING IN THE OFFSEASON YOU DUMMIES!

Exactly.

 

This is what I've been saying the last 2 Y.

 

Also I'd rather FAs than trades most of the times, considering that you have money and you don't have to give up prospects in the process.

[moonslav59]

One of the main problems here is that the Sox don't have very many mid-tier prospects. The kind of prospects you don't mind risking letting go for short term deadline rentals.

 

The stock on Owens & Johnson certainly have fell, but I do think we have a few high value mid-tier prospects:

 

Travis, Kopech, Dubon, Chavis, Lakins, Hernandez, Light, T Ball, Longhi, Stanki, Marrero, Basabe, Martin Acosta & Ockimey

 

I think one problem we have is that teams want other teams' top prospects, and even though Travis might be a top 3 prospect for other teams, he's not someone some teams might "settle on" when dealing with the Sox. I'm not saying that teams devalue Travis, because we have 4 guys ahead of him, but only that they shoot for top 3 or 4 prospects, unless their scouts see something others don't.

[moonslav59]

So one of the best minor league systems today (with 3-4 untouchable prospects) has no mid-tier prospects?

 

Remember, we traded 2-3 for Kimbrel.

[moonslav59]

Would you trade

 

Swihart, Benintendi, Devers plus Kopech or Lakins

 

for

 

Teheran & Vizcaino ?

[Eddy Ballgame]

Would you trade

 

Swihart, Benintendi, Devers plus Kopech or Lakins

 

for

 

Teheran & Vizcaino ?

 

Not in a million years.

[Emp9]

A Lot to chew on in this post.

 

Are you saying the lack of mid-tier prospects in our system makes it difficult to trade because the Sox don't want to move upper level prospects, or are you saying that other teams would prefer to have mid level prospect to our top prospects? I would think that most teams would want our top guys.

 

It's interesting that you mention Buch and then later discuss trading a top prospect for Volquez. See, to me, Vloquez is another Buch. The differences being Buch has mental lapses while Volquez has psychotic breaks.

 

Buch seems to have a better record of demonstrating elite stuff for decent stints.

 

I would not trade a top prospect for Volquez. The return is, in total, minimal. And that is just not enough to be worthwhile in my book.

 

Just my opinions, though.

 

Of course other teams would want the best prospects they could get, and the more the merrier from their perspective. No, I'm talking about Boston's side of things. Over paying is easy. I'm saying our lack of mid-tiers affects our ability to negotiate properly.

 

On Volquez.. I agree. I wouldn't give much for Volquez (I'd value him as a #5 or the occational #4) but the blogger seemed to want the world for him. There seems to be a huge disconnect lately on what a quality SP is. I'm aware it's a Pitcher's market, but lets be serious. There's delusional opinions outside of Boston too. I can't unread what I read, no matter how much I would like to.

[moonslav59]

Would you trade

 

Swihart, Benintendi, Devers plus Kopech or Lakins

 

for

 

Teheran & Vizcaino ?

 

 

Not in a million years.

 

I don't think I would either, but how about...

 

any 2 from Swihart, Benintendi & Devers plus both Kopech & Lakins?

 

[mvp 78]

Would you trade

 

Swihart, Benintendi, Devers plus Kopech or Lakins

 

for

 

Teheran & Vizcaino ?

 

 

Not in a million years.

 

I don't think I would either, but how about...

 

any 2 from Swihart, Benintendi & Devers plus both Kopech & Lakins?

 

 

Not for Teheran. Not a chance.

[Emp9]

The stock on Owens & Johnson certainly have fell, but I do think we have a few high value mid-tier prospects:

 

Travis, Kopech, Dubon, Chavis, Lakins, Hernandez, Light, T Ball, Longhi, Stanki, Marrero, Basabe, Martin Acosta & Ockimey

 

I think one problem we have is that teams want other teams' top prospects, and even though Travis might be a top 3 prospect for other teams, he's not someone some teams might "settle on" when dealing with the Sox. I'm not saying that teams devalue Travis, because we have 4 guys ahead of him, but only that they shoot for top 3 or 4 prospects, unless their scouts see something others don't.

 

Your right to an extent but most of them are very recent. Travis is gone for the year, no? Kopech was suspended & then broke his hand and has just recently come back. Trey Ball IS in fact doing very well as of late. He seems to be finally progessing to the point where I'll let myself be a little optimistic. I would say Dubon & Hernandez have been the highlights of the group going back last year. I hope a few of these guys are attractive enough to other teams as throw-ins to tip the scales on a trade but it's been slow going. There's also the question of how well they stack-up with other teams mid-tiers.

 

It wasn't my intention to turn this into a prospect thread. I just thought it was common knowledge enough that our lack of mid-tiers has also contributed to a difficult trade market on our end these past few years. Enough that it's worth noting.

[moonslav59]

Of course other teams would want the best prospects they could get, and the more the merrier from their perspective. No, I'm talking about Boston's side of things. Over paying is easy. I'm saying our lack of mid-tiers affects our ability to negotiate properly.

 

On Volquez.. I agree. I wouldn't give much for Volquez (I'd value him as a #5 or the occational #4) but the blogger seemed to want the world for him. There seems to be a huge disconnect lately on what a quality SP is. I'm aware it's a Pitcher's market, but lets be serious. There's delusional opinions outside of Boston too. I can't unread what I read, no matter how much I would like to.

.

I hate the idea of trading for a number 5 starter, even if he's a good one. I think it's the wrong way to build a winner.

 

We are in a jam though, and overpaying for anything higher than a 4/5 slot SP'er would probably involve a massive overpay.

 

It's going to be a hard choice to make. We are not going to get a cost-controlled quality pitcher under team control for 2 1/2+ years without it hurting us.

 

I get the idea of going for broke in Papi's last season, but I plan on being a Sox fan for at least a couple dozen more seasons. Solving all our issues via free agency is not a winning solution. Building and maintaining a strong farm system is the key. We took a little hit with the Kimbrel trade, and we'll probably take another hit this summer and/or next winter, but we have to leave some significant foundation remaining.

 

We all know it is going to be hard to replace Papi. It's going to have to take significant improvements in several areas to make up for his loss. We'll also be losing Uehara and Tazawa this winter (along with probably Buch & Hanigan).

 

Looking farther down the road, we actually have a pretty long window, before we have significant players becoming FA eligible. In some ways that's a blessing, but with players like Pablo, Castillo and maybe HanRam and Porcello, the long wait can be very financially restrictive.

 

Here's a look at team control by years (player plays through season listed)

 

2016: Ortiz, Uehara, Tazawa (2017 options on Buch & Hanigan)

2017: Young (end options on Buchholz & Hanigan)

2018: Kelly, Ross(option on Kimbrel)

2019: Porcello, Bogey, Holt, Leon, Rutledge, Workman (option on Ramirez) end option on Kimbrel

2020: Betts, JBJ, Wright, Vazquez, Smith, Layne(option on Sandoval)

2021: Pedroia

To be determined: ERod, Swihart, Shaw, Barnes, Noe Ramirez and all on minor league deals.

2022: Price (assuming no opt-out)

 

Trading away several top prospects is going to mean we'll have to extend or replace (in kind) guys like Bogey, Betts & JBJ before too long and up will go our budget. These three guys along with players like Wright & Shaw getting low pay, is what allows us to sign guys like Price and trade for high-priced players like Kimbrel. Once these guys start getting paid more, we'll be dropping guys like HanRam, Pablo and Porcello, but we'll still need some low cost-high impact players on the roster to help keep the luxury tax low. Those guys or at least some of these guys will have to be Moncada, Benintendi, Swihart, Espinoza and/or Devers.

 

[moonslav59]

Not for Teheran. Not a chance.

 

It's for Teheran and Vizcainoe- a very good RP'er.

 

Still no?

[moonslav59]

Your right to an extent but most of them are very recent. Travis is gone for the year, no? Kopech was suspended & then broke his hand and has just recently come back. Trey Ball IS in fact doing very well as of late. He seems to be finally progessing to the point where I'll let myself be a little optimistic. I would say Dubon & Hernandez have been the highlights of the group going back last year. I hope a few of these guys are attractive enough to other teams as throw-ins to tip the scales on a trade but it's been slow going. There's also the question of how well they stack-up with other teams mid-tiers.

 

It wasn't my intention to turn this into a prospect thread. I just thought it was common knowledge enough that our lack of mid-tiers has also contributed to a difficult trade market on our end these past few years. Enough that it's worth noting.

 

I understand your point and don't disagree.

 

My hope is that instead of having to trade 2 or 3 of our top 5 young guys (Moncada, Swihart, Benintendi, Espinoza & Devers), we can keep it to 1 or 2 by adding some of these mid-level prospects.

[Spudboy]

Of course other teams would want the best prospects they could get, and the more the merrier from their perspective. No, I'm talking about Boston's side of things. Over paying is easy. I'm saying our lack of mid-tiers affects our ability to negotiate properly.

 

On Volquez.. I agree. I wouldn't give much for Volquez (I'd value him as a #5 or the occational #4) but the blogger seemed to want the world for him. There seems to be a huge disconnect lately on what a quality SP is. I'm aware it's a Pitcher's market, but lets be serious. There's delusional opinions outside of Boston too. I can't unread what I read, no matter how much I would like to.

 

I just saw your post that explains how a lack of mid tier pieces makes it difficult to trade without moving top pieces. So I get your point now.

 

It's milk over the dam now. But Ben left this rotation a f***ing mess that will be costly to repair now. Kind of ironic since his virtue as a GM was that he built good stock in the minors.

[Spudboy]

Would you trade

 

Swihart, Benintendi, Devers plus Kopech or Lakins

 

for

 

Teheran & Vizcaino ?

 

 

Not in a million years.

 

I don't think I would either, but how about...

 

any 2 from Swihart, Benintendi & Devers plus both Kopech & Lakins?

 

 

No. Please refer to what Ussrname said about Tehran. His mechanics and peripherals are very concerning.

 

The only way I trade Swihart or Benintendi is for someone like Gray, Salizar, or Carasco.

[Spudboy]

Why do people assume Taz is gone after 2016? Is he a Boris client?

 

Why won't the Sox make a run at signing him?