Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Eddy Ballgame]

I am not worried about the PR of the situation, nor am I concerned about the sensibilities of his replacement. I am concerned about the offense experiencing inconsistency for a long time.

 

Babe Ruth retired in 1934. In the 10 years following his retirement, the Yankees won 6 World Championships. In other words, as much as Ortiz has done for the Sox, nobody is irreplaceable.

[a700hitter]

Babe Ruth retired in 1934. In the 10 years following his retirement, the Yankees won 6 World Championships. In other words, as much as Ortiz has done for the Sox, nobody is irreplaceable.

Do we have Lou Gehrig?

[Eddy Ballgame]

Do we have Lou Gehrig?

 

Gehrig was done after '38. The Yankees won in '39, '41 & '43. Before you come back with the obvious, the point is that guys can be replaced. Who were the "Babe Ruth/ Lou Gehrig" types who played for the Royals/Mets last year?

[moonslav59]

Here are the current worst teams by record in MLB and their best pitchers:

 

MN- No SP'ers with an ERA under 5.00, except Pat Dean who has a WHIP over 1.41. The only 2 RP'ers having decent years are 30 year old Fernando Abad and 31 year old Brandon Kintzler.

 

ATL- 25 year old Julio Teheran as been discussed (2.93/0.989), but there's also 23 y/o Matt Wisler (4.23/1.181) and 25 y/o closer Arodys Vizcaino (2.22/1.235 but with a 13 K/9 rate). There's also lefty RP'er (26 y/o) Hunter Cervenka (3.10/1.180 and 12.0 k/9)

 

SP- Tyson Ross is hurt, but there is lefty 27 y/o Drew Pomeranz (2.88/1.173 and 10.7 K/9) and 39 y/o closer Fernando Rodney who has yet to allow an earned run in 23.1 IP (0.857 WHIP/ 8.1 k/9). 29 y/o lefty Ryan Buchter is off to a nice start (1.86

 

CIN- Dan Straily (27) 3.66/1.195, Brandon Finnegan (23 lefty) 3.61/1.312

 

OAK- Sonny Gray has been hurt and not pitching well, 36 y/o Rich Hill is on the DL, but they have quite a few RP'ers doing well so far this year. BB has a history of trading RP'ers often: Ryan Dull (26) 2.31/0.800, Sean Doolittle (29 lefty) 2.67/0.926, Fernando Rodriquez (32) 2.65/0.971

 

AZ- I doubt Greinke is even up for discussion, so all that's left are 4 RP'ers: Tyler Clippard (31) 3.65/1.378 and 10.2 K/9, Daniel Hudson (29) 1.73/0.846, Jake Barrett (24) 2.16/1.040 & Brad Ziegler (36) 2.93/1.446.

 

LAA- I don't see anyone worthwhile that is healthy and doing well, except RP'er Cam Bedrosian (24) 1.61/1.299 and 9.7 K/9.

 

PHI- 23 y/o Aaron Nola 3.51/1.134/9.9 K/9 and Jerad Eickhoff (25) 3.40/1.172 are doing very well. Vincent Velasquez (24) is on the DL 3.65/1.265 and maybe a couple RPers Hector Neris 11 K/9 and David Hernandez 11.5 K/9.

 

MIL- Zach Davies (23) 3.88/1.181, Junior Guerra (31)3.81/1.178 & Jimmy Nelson (27) 3.92/1.353 plus RP'er Tyler Thornburg (27) 2.60/0.759 and 12.7 K/9 rate.

 

I haven't even heard of some of these guys, and I'm no expert on other teams' players, but maybe someone from this group can become available and eventually help us.

 

[moonslav59]

Here's a possible look at our 2017 line-up, assuming no major acquisitions on offense:

 

1) Betts RF

2) Pedroia 2B

3) Bogaerts SS

4) Bradley CF

5) Ramirez DH/1B

6) Shaw/Moncada 3B/1B/DH

7) Moncada/Young/Benintendi/Swihart LF/3B/DH

8) Young/Swihart/Benintendi LF/DH

9) Vazquez/Hanigan/Swihart C

 

Certainly, this is not as good as a line-up with Papi, but it's still a plus offense.

 

 

[a700hitter]

And the 2017 offense will need plus pitching that we do not have currently.

[moonslav59]

And the 2017 offense will need plus pitching that we do not have currently.

 

I totally agree.

 

Right now, soxprospects.com projects our 2017 pitching staff as such:

 

Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright, Buch/Kelly

Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Hembree, Layne, Ross, Elias

 

There's a shitload of holes here. These holes will cost millions to fill and or several top prospects in trade... or both.

 

[a700hitter]

DD should make some moves to go for it all this year while we have Ortiz to ride. If it costs some prospects, so be it. There will always be fresh crops of kids. People here in defending Cherries have said that a Championship was worth 3 last place finishes. DD should go for it.

[Jack Flap]

I reserve any judgments about trading/not trading prospects until I see the trade in question. Anyone should be available in the right deal, but to move any of the top four, the return would have to be great; to move Moncada or Espinoza in particular, IMO, the return would have to be pretty spectacular.

 

Might Benintendi plus a couple of lesser pieces (someone like Owens, Dubon, etc.) be enough for Teheran?

[moonslav59]

I reserve any judgments about trading/not trading prospects until I see the trade in question. Anyone should be available in the right deal, but to move any of the top four, the return would have to be great; to move Moncada or Espinoza in particular, IMO, the return would have to be pretty spectacular.

 

Might Benintendi plus a couple of lesser pieces (someone like Owens, Dubon, etc.) be enough for Teheran?

 

I'd rather part with Swihart and any two below our #7 prospect.

 

I might consider Swihart, Devers and choose two or three from Dubon, TBall, Owens, Johnson or Kopech for Teheran & Vizcaino or Cervenka

[Jack Flap]

I think I'd rather give up Swihart than Beni as well, but I have no idea where his value stands right now. It sounds like he may not be back before the trade deadline, and it'd be tough to make him a major piece in a trade when he's hurt.

[Nick]

On 12/1/16, new luxury tax amount will be announced.

 

Between Ortiz, Clay, Koji, Hanigan and Tazawa, we have $42M coming off our books this year. Unfortunately only Young comes off of our payroll in 2017 assuming we pick up the option on Kimbrel. At first glance, it may seem we have 'plenty' of money but the reality is we better chose how to spend our money wisely this go around. We have very little room to make mistakes...(overpaying for Sandoval, Ramirez, Craig).

 

Benintendi, Moncada, Shaw and Swihart better all come through or we're in deep s***.

Edited June 17, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

On 12/1/16, new luxury tax amount will be announced.

 

Between Ortiz, Clay, Koji, Hanigan and Tazawa, we have $42M coming off our books this year. Unfortunately only Young comes off of our payroll in 2017 assuming we pick up the option on Kimbrel. At first glance, it may seem we have 'plenty' of money but the reality is we better chose how to spend our money wisely this go around. We have very little room to make mistakes...(overpaying for Sandoval, Ramirez, Craig).

 

1) We may keep Hanigan, especially if we end up trading Swihart.

2) The total "savings" off our current payroll would be $16M Ortiz, $13M Buch, $9M Uehara and $4M Tazawa would total $39M, but since we are already over the luxury tax limit by about $10M, and it's uncertain if Henry is willing to pay an even stiffer tax next season, we may not have as much to spend as we think.

3) Luckily the luxury tax limit is supposed to go up significantly next year.

 

You are right, we don't have room to repeat the mistakes of Sandy, HanRam and Castillo.

 

If we assume we only have $30-40M to spend next year, I can't see us spending it anywhere else but on pitching. I suppose we could make a trade or two using our top prospects and get cost-controlled players, which would allow extra spending on offense, but I'm strongly averse to trading Moncada, Benintendi and Espinoza unless we get something very very special in return.

[Emp9]

I think I'd rather give up Swihart than Beni as well, but I have no idea where his value stands right now. It sounds like he may not be back before the trade deadline, and it'd be tough to make him a major piece in a trade when he's hurt.

 

Unless a team is looking to rebuild and not overly concerned about this season. 6-8 weeks sounded about right for Swihart's ankle injury. I expect him back about 3 weeks before the trade deadline.

[a700hitter]

Buchholz rejoins the rotation on Wednesday against the White Sox. Ughh! Winning next Wednesday is probably a no-brainer because it is my next at the game mojo game. Don't be fooled by any success that he has next Wednesday. LOL!!

[jacksonianmarch]

The FA class after this year is one of the worst I have ever seen. With Strasburg off the market, the SP market blows ass. The reliever market is topped by Chapman, but the rest suck. If you're getting pitching for next year, you're dealing for it.

[moonslav59]

The FA class after this year is one of the worst I have ever seen. With Strasburg off the market, the SP market blows ass. The reliever market is topped by Chapman, but the rest suck. If you're getting pitching for next year, you're dealing for it.

 

Another reason I thought we should have gone all out this past winter. I realize getting the best starter and best closer was pretty spectacular, but we're in an awful bind now.

[Slasher9]

Another reason I thought we should have gone all out this past winter. I realize getting the best starter and best closer was pretty spectacular, but we're in an awful bind now.

 

Clay about to get us out of the pickle by pitching like healthy clay....

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Another reason I thought we should have gone all out this past winter. I realize getting the best starter and best closer was pretty spectacular, but we're in an awful bind now.

 

I'm note sure what more can be expected in one offseason when you acquire the top starter and the best closer.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm note sure what more can be expected in one offseason when you acquire the top starter and the best closer.

 

It just demonstrates what a horrific pitching situation the Cherington-Lucchino brain trust left us with.

[Kimmi]

Clay about to get us out of the pickle by pitching like healthy clay....

 

I'm pretty sure that we're the only ones on the planet who feel this way, but I'm kind of excited about Clay's return to the rotation.

[Kimmi]

It just demonstrates what a horrific pitching situation the Cherington-Lucchino brain trust left us with.

 

To be fair, the rotation has a pretty good #1, 2, and 3. Even though Wright might not fit the typical ace profile, he has pitched like an ace all season. Price and Porcello are very solid at #2 and #3. If Price keeps pitching like he has since Pedroia fixed him, we arguably have two aces.

 

Where we are lacking is in the #4 and #5 spots. Out of Buchholz, Kelly, ERod, Elias, Owens, Johnson, and I know I'm missing someone, you would think that 2 of them, or at least one of them, could pitch consistently enough to be a solid back end rotation guy. Especially with the way that Buchholz and ERod pitched last season and the way Kelly finished the season. It is really a bit of an enigma that not one of those guys have been able to step it up.

[moonslav59]

I'm wonder if it's worth stretching our Barnes and giving him a shot at the 5 slot before we make a deal.

[Spudboy]

I'm wonder if it's worth stretching our Barnes and giving him a shot at the 5 slot before we make a deal.

 

This may seem like a reasonable thing to do except when you consider how long it has taken to reshape him into a decent mid-reliever.

 

This team is desperate for any back end pitching.

 

I say leave him where he is.

[Emp9]

I read yesterday ERod's closed door meeting was about him still favoring his knee and why his mechanics aren't the same. He's still the best shot we have at fixing one of our rotation spots. So I guess i'm still optimistic about him even though he's taking more time than we all expected or wanted. The good news is that he has more confidence in his knee more than any other point in time all season.

[Bellhorn04]

To be fair, the rotation has a pretty good #1, 2, and 3. Even though Wright might not fit the typical ace profile, he has pitched like an ace all season. Price and Porcello are very solid at #2 and #3. If Price keeps pitching like he has since Pedroia fixed him, we arguably have two aces.

 

Where we are lacking is in the #4 and #5 spots. Out of Buchholz, Kelly, ERod, Elias, Owens, Johnson, and I know I'm missing someone, you would think that 2 of them, or at least one of them, could pitch consistently enough to be a solid back end rotation guy. Especially with the way that Buchholz and ERod pitched last season and the way Kelly finished the season. It is really a bit of an enigma that not one of those guys have been able to step it up.

 

We've had way too many enigmas the last 3 seasons.

[moonslav59]

Porcello has quietly got off to his best ERA+ and WHIP season in his 8 year career.

 

I know it's early, but the hopes that he might improve as he entered his middle prime may be coming true.

[moonslav59]

This may seem like a reasonable thing to do except when you consider how long it has taken to reshape him into a decent mid-reliever.

 

This team is desperate for any back end pitching.

 

I say leave him where he is.

 

Yeah, you're probably right, although acquiring RP'ers are usually much easier and less costly at the deadline than serviceable starters.

[a700hitter]

We've had way too many enigmas the last 3 seasons.

I don't know if we have had any enigmas, but we have had too many flops.

[moonslav59]

Enigmas wrapped inside paradoxical flops