Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[a700hitter]

You named 3 out of the last 5 years, how is that a "certainty"?

 

Again, I never claimed he was an iron man or durable. I just claimed he's not a certainty to always go on the DL every June [or July]

 

My statement is more logical than his.

Hyperbole, yes. Illogical, no. There is a pattern and in the other years he has been bad, so it would be more accurate to say that the only certainty that he gives us is that in thos rare years where he is able to pitch past the All Star break he pitches poorly. I am not quite sure what point you are trying to prove.

 

Btw, I corrected your post. See bracketed language. If you are going to argue the accuracy of what I have posted, you need to be accurate about what I posted.

Edited June 14, 2016 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

Your numbers have established that he is a half season pitcher most of the time and on the rare occasions when he isn't a half inning pitcher, he sucks. I agree with this, but I don't think this establishes that A) he is more durable than I thought. In fact it supports what I thought about his durability, and it supports my opinion that the red Sox should have moved on from him.

 

Actually, he's been a half season pitcher in 3 of the prior 6 seasons, and he may last all this season (probably not as a starter though, but there is a chance he lasts all year 4 of the last 7, so it may not be over half the time.

 

I agree, that when he does pitch a full season, he has only been very good once, so-so once and very bad once. I'm not sure I'd call that "sucks", but if you want to say it, I won't argue too much. Three of his 4 half seasons have ranged from pretty good to near legendary great.

 

Again, I will say, he's been more durable than some seem to think he has been, and he's had more good stretches than some seem to want to give him credit for. He has certainly sucked recently, and with pitchers, it's often said they are only as good as their last start, so I get the sentiment over his last 14 starts. The guy is rotten right now. Nobody is saying he isn't.

 

Just don't let the now cloud historical truths. There's no doubt, Buch has sucked over the last few years too often for anyone's tastes. I caught a ton of grief from a poster a couple years back for listing Buch as our #5 starter after his 2013 season of greatness for 16 starts, so I get the point people are making.

 

My only point being made here is that over his career, he has been more durable than some think and a decent to great pitcher for more stretches than some want to give him credit for.

 

Baseball is a "what have you done for me lately" sport, and I get that, but history is history and Buch has had some fantastic stretches, some very good stretches and some decent stretches mixed in with too many DL stints and bad stretches for anyone to overlook.

 

3 near full seasons

2010 Very good

2012 Servicable

2014 Very bad

 

4 half seasons

2011 Pretty good

2013 Excellent

2015 Very good

2016 Horrible (still in progress)

[a700hitter]

Again, I will say, he's been more durable than some seem to think he has been,

I don't know who these people are or what they are saying, but the fact is that in his last 5 seasons he couldn't get by the first half of june twice and in another year, he couldn't get passed the All star break. That is not durable, and it is not more durable than I thought. You are splitting the hairs of your own strawman. Edited June 14, 2016 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

Hyperbole, yes. Illogical, no. There is a pattern and in the other years he has been bad, so it would be more accurate to say that the only certainty that he gives us is that in thos rare years where he is able to pitch past the All Star break he pitches poorly. I am not quite sure what point you are trying to prove.

 

Btw, I corrected your post. See bracketed language. If you are going to argue the accuracy of what I have posted, you need to be accurate about what I posted.

 

I've stated my point over and over, and it looks like I have to again. You say that the times he has pitched past the ALL Star Game, he's done poorly.

.

I said, since 2010, he's pitched past the Allstar game 3 times. Once, he was really good (2010), once he was so-so (2012) and once he was bad (2014). That's not a great record, but ...and here comes my point again... he's done better than some have given him credit for doing.

[moonslav59]

But, my original point was that he has been more durable than some give him credit for, as the hyperbole implied he's always or nearly always out by June.

 

60% half seasons, if you cherry pick the previous 5 seasons only, is quite a use of hyperbole to say or imply 100%.

[a700hitter]

I've stated my point over and over, and it looks like I have to again. You say that the times he has pitched past the ALL Star Game, he's done poorly.

.

I said, since 2010, he's pitched past the Allstar game 3 times. Once, he was really good (2010), once he was so-so (2012) and once he was bad (2014). That's not a great record, but ...and here comes my point again... he's done better than some have given him credit for doing.

I thought that your point was ...here it comes again... that he is more durable than most people think? He is not more durable than I have thought. And his one good full season (2010) out of the last 6 seasons is not encouraging enough to keep him around. That is what I am saying. I am not underestimating Buchholz's accomplishments or track record. I am fully aware of how he has done. One good full season six years ago is a pattern from which I would deduce that the chance of getting a good full season from him in the future is negligible. A certainty... no, but almost a certainty, yes.

[a700hitter]

But, my original point was that he has been more durable than some give him credit for, as the hyperbole implied he's always or nearly always out by June.

 

60% half seasons, if you cherry pick the previous 5 seasons only, is quite a use of hyperbole to say or imply 100%.

Let me correct you as I have said that we are looking for a replacement pitcher by June or July. I gave you the dates. It has happened in 3 of the last 5 years. Saying always was admittedly hyperbole, but now you take issue with the degree of hyperbole? Really? Edited June 14, 2016 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

1) It's not rare he pitches past the ALL Star Game (now I'll do some cherry picking) when he's gone over 27 starts in 3 of the previous 6 seasons.

2) If you count minor leagues and go back to 2007, he's pitched 27 or more starts in 6 of his last 9 seasons, so it's not "rare" for him to last past the ALL Star Game healthwise anyways.

3) When he does pitch in MLB past the ALL Star Game, he's been mediocre not poor (one very good, one so-so and one bad).

4) When he's pitched a half season, he's been good to great 3 out of 4 seasons.

 

True, most of the bad has been recently, but even cherry picking the sample size to make him look as bad as possible, he's been bad in 2 of the last 3 seasons and missed time or lost his starting job in 2 of the last 3 seasons. That's certainly bad, but I wouldn't say 1 out of 3 is "rare".

 

Maybe we're arguing semantics now, but I still think some people are making him look worse and less durable than he has been.

 

I don't think it's an extreme position, and I think there is ample evidence to show it's not rare that he lasts past June or rare that he pitches well. It's certainly not often, but it's not rare either.

[a700hitter]

1) It's not rare he pitches past the ALL Star Game (now I'll do some cherry picking) when he's gone over 27 starts in 3 of the previous 6 seasons.

2) If you count minor leagues and go back to 2007, he's pitched 27 or more starts in 6 of his last 9 seasons, so it's not "rare" for him to last past the ALL Star Game healthwise anyways.

3) When he does pitch in MLB past the ALL Star Game, he's been mediocre not poor (one very good, one so-so and one bad).

4) When he's pitched a half season, he's been good to great 3 out of 4 seasons.

 

True, most of the bad has been recently, but even cherry picking the sample size to make him look as bad as possible, he's been bad in 2 of the last 3 seasons and missed time or lost his starting job in 2 of the last 3 seasons. That's certainly bad, but I wouldn't say 1 out of 3 is "rare".

 

Maybe we're arguing semantics now, but I still think some people are making him look worse and less durable than he has been.

 

I don't think it's an extreme position, and I think there is ample evidence to show it's not rare that he lasts past June or rare that he pitches well. It's certainly not often, but it's not rare either.

Three of the last five seasons he has been on the DL by the All Star Break. That is often ... too often for him to be relied upon, imo.

 

And yes, you are arguing semantics at this point. You are not establishing or proving anything to me.

[moonslav59]

Let me correct you as I have said that we are looking for a replacement pitcher by June or July. I gave you the dates. It has happened in 3 of the last 5 years. You are challenging the accuracy of my statements while inaccurately stating my views. That invalidates your conclusions.

 

The statement I responded to said it was a CERTAINTY that Buch has to b e replaced EVERY June. Let me ask you, is that a valid statement?

 

Was it wrong for me to point out the statement is invalid?

 

If it was meant to be hyperbole, then so be it, but others seem to be defending the validity of that statement.

 

Buch pitched well enough in 2010 and 2012 to not need replacing. Since then, he's been pitching well but injured in June 2 of those 4 seasons after 2012. I've never tried to mislead anyone about the facts. Yes, the last 4 seasons have met your criteria of "needing replacement". I've never argues against that point. I'm sorry, if it appeared I was, but looking back at my statements, I don't see it that way.

[moonslav59]

Three of the last five seasons he has been on the DL by the All Star Break. That is often ... too often for him to be relied upon, imo.

 

Agreed, but my point was that it was not rare for him to last past June.

[a700hitter]

Agreed, but my point was that it was not rare for him to last past June.

It was medium rare.

[moonslav59]

He's either been injured by June in 2 of the last 4 years or pitching too poorly to deserve a rotation slot by June in the other 2 of 4 years.

 

That's unreliable.

 

However, those two half seasons of 2013 and 2015 of fine pitching was apparently enough for Sox management to want to risk keeping him around.

 

I agreed with the choice, and it certainly appears we were wrong.

 

I've never tried to hide these facts or my mistake opinion. I only tried to correct a statement I felt was wrong or at least misleading.

 

[moonslav59]

It was medium rare.

 

I'll agree to that--just how I like my Rib Eye Steaks!

[a700hitter]

I'll agree to that--just how I like my Rib Eye Steaks!

And that is not semantics.

[a700hitter]

He's either been injured by June in 2 of the last 4 years or pitching too poorly to deserve a rotation slot by June in the other 2 of 4 years.

 

That's unreliable.

 

However, those two half seasons of 2013 and 2015 of fine pitching was apparently enough for Sox management to want to risk keeping him around.

 

I agreed with the choice, and it certainly appears we were wrong.

 

I've never tried to hide these facts or my mistake opinion. I only tried to correct a statement I felt was wrong or at least misleading.

 

His half year performance in 2013 was instrumental in jump starting a great season. I think his start may have been the biggest key to the season. I was hoping for something similar this season, but we are well past any chance of that happening.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't even talk about Buchholz any more. He's Bastard 1 to me now. I just can't believe we decided he needed a baby brother.

[cp176]

Bastards 1 and 2 even look alike. For the record, I am not a hater (sounds Nixonian) but I would like them more if they were both playing for someone else.

[Nick]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Peavy acquisition was in part due to uncertainty around Clay's health.....

[mvp 78]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Peavy acquisition was in part due to uncertainty around Clay's health.....

 

You're not wrong.

 

"Boston had multiple scouts at both of Peavy's recent starts, and while there was some sentiment that Peavy was not throwing as well as he did in 2012, when he struck out 194 batters in 219 innings while posting a 3.37 ERA, the consensus was that Peavy represented a major upgrade for a rotation that is uncertain as to when undefeated ace Clay Buchholz, who has been on the DL with shoulder bursitis since June 8, will return."

 

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/9523880/jake-peavy-boston-red-sox-3-team-deal-involving-chicago-white-sox-detroit-tigers

[moonslav59]

I think we can all agree that the uncertainty about Buch, Kelly, Owens, Johnson and Elias this year should force us to look long and hard for a decent and solid starter.

[Jack Flap]

Elias to start Friday:

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/06/14/roenis-elias-to-start-friday-vs-mariners-as-red-sox-need-5th-starter/

[moonslav59]

Elias to start Friday:

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/06/14/roenis-elias-to-start-friday-vs-mariners-as-red-sox-need-5th-starter/

 

He'll be our 9th starter this year.

 

13 Price & Porcello

12 Wright

10 Buchholz

6 Kelly

3 ERod & Owens

2 O'Sullivan

 

[Kimmi]

Stop with the Fangraphs trutherism. He's a negative WAR player right now.

 

Yes, those are those hindsight glasses again.

[Kimmi]

Elias to start Friday:

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/06/14/roenis-elias-to-start-friday-vs-mariners-as-red-sox-need-5th-starter/

 

Good to see. With the way he's been pitching recently, he deserves a shot.

[moonslav59]

Good to see. With the way he's been pitching recently, he deserves a shot.

 

He's looked good lately, but his AAA WHIP number is not that encouraging:

 

1.443 WHIP (4.0 BB/9)

 

I do agree; he deserves a chance.

[FredLynn]

I think we can all agree that the uncertainty about Buch, Kelly, Owens, Johnson and Elias this year should force us to look long and hard for a decent and solid starter.

 

It is not the uncertainty about that group of pitchers; rather, its the certainty that none of them are any good. And by "looking long and hard" that means sooner rather than later. Right now this team is the third best team in the AL East.

[moonslav59]

It is not the uncertainty about that group of pitchers; rather, its the certainty that none of them are any good. And by "looking long and hard" that means sooner rather than later. Right now this team is the third best team in the AL East.

It certainly looks like there is no chance any of these guys can come through as a solid 5 starter.

We need ERod to jump right in and be solid or else we'll need to fill 2 slots.

Elias does deserve a shot, but Johnson may never get a look with us.

I hate writing anyone off 100%, but I totally agree that we can't count on anyone in our system to adequately fill the 5 slot.

Imagine where we'd be without Wright shining brightly.

 

I've been saying for years that we need to rebuild our staff from the top or near top. Price was just one stroke. Porcello was a good attempt, but right now looking at him as anything more than a good 3rd starter is wishful thinking. Wright has been solid. Price is looking better. ERod is our big hope right now. Elias- a long shot.

 

I hope we try to get a very good starter, but I hate the 2 month rental deals, especially if it ends up costing us a top 6 or 7 prospect.

 

[Kimmi]

I would just like to point out that the Orioles' starters have an ERA of 4.77, worse than ours. Their overall ERA is 4.11, better than ours, but not by much.

[bowman]

Watching the game, Dombrowski and Henry look like they are having some serious talks. Maybe we can get Lester back..lol