Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[a700hitter]

come on 700. if you are talking about me. i have put my position in black and white throughout this thread.

that price has been about as bad as clay thus far

- that it was a no brainer to pickup Clay's option

- that i expect my Ace to pitch better than my 1`year mid priced contract pitcher

- that if i give the ball to a pitcher for only 1 game it would be my "Ace"

 

i now know that both you and UN wanted to pickup Clays option (which aligns exactly with me) but you both wanted to trade him. not sure to who or for what?

I am not biting. Let's move on. This played out. kudos.

[S5Dewey]

Well, since I started this mess three pages ago let me clarify my point.

 

David Price is making $30MM this year. Clay Buchholz is making $13MM. It's reasonable to expect that Price is going to be 2.3 times as good as Buchholz, which doesn't set the bar all that high for Buchholz. (9 wins or an ERA 2.3 x Price's or a Whip 2.3 times as high as Price's).

 

The problem is some people's expectations for a pitcher making $13MM. For some reason people seem to think that because Clay is making $13MM he should be "worth" 14-18 wins with an ERA of around 2.5 and a WHIP of ~1.5. If that happens he's a HUGE bargain in today's market.

 

Look, I'm not sticking up for Clay. I'm just saying that due to his history it's entirely possible that he will "earn" that $13MM. His performance at this point is horrible but he has shown many times that he has the ability to turn it around. There's still plenty of time to turn it around and IF HE DOES that $13MM will be a reasonable figure for his salary.

[mvp 78]

David Price is making $30MM this year. Clay Buchholz is making $13MM. It's reasonable to expect that Price is going to be 2.3 times as good as Buchholz.

 

No, it's not reasonable.

[sk7326]

Well, since I started this mess three pages ago let me clarify my point.

 

David Price is making $30MM this year. Clay Buchholz is making $13MM. It's reasonable to expect that Price is going to be 2.3 times as good as Buchholz, which doesn't set the bar all that high for Buchholz. (9 wins or an ERA 2.3 x Price's or a Whip 2.3 times as high as Price's).

 

The problem is some people's expectations for a pitcher making $13MM. For some reason people seem to think that because Clay is making $13MM he should be "worth" 14-18 wins with an ERA of around 2.5 and a WHIP of ~1.5. If that happens he's a HUGE bargain in today's market.

 

Look, I'm not sticking up for Clay. I'm just saying that due to his history it's entirely possible that he will "earn" that $13MM. His performance at this point is horrible but he has shown many times that he has the ability to turn it around. There's still plenty of time to turn it around and IF HE DOES that $13MM will be a reasonable figure for his salary.

 

The concept of marginal utility weeps

[Slasher9]

Fangraphs FWIW had the following Dollar Value for 2015:

Clay: $25.3MM

[Slasher9]

Fangraphs FWIW had the following Dollar Value for 2015:

Clay: $25.3MM

 

thats the value of 18 GS / 113 IP / 3.26 ERA

 

so it wont take much for him to "earn" that $13MM 2016 salary....

[S5Dewey]

Really? What is it about business that you don't understand? To the FO baseball isn't a game as much as it is a business. They put money in, they expect a return back commensurate with what they put in.

 

I guess the question is, what do you expect in terms of metrics at the end of the year from a pitcher who's making $13MM? And how does that compare to a pitcher who's making 2.3 times that?

[S5Dewey]

The concept of marginal utility weeps

 

Ah yes. The last weapon when an argument is being lost. Condescension.

[Bellhorn04]

Really? What is it about business that you don't understand? To the FO baseball isn't a game as much as it is a business. They put money in, they expect a return back commensurate with what they put in.

 

I guess the question is, what do you expect in terms of metrics at the end of the year from a pitcher who's making $13MM? And how does that compare to a pitcher who's making 2.3 times that?

 

WAR is what you're looking for. Clay needs a WAR of 2. Price needs a WAR of 4.5.

[sk7326]

Really? What is it about business that you don't understand? To the FO baseball isn't a game as much as it is a business. They put money in, they expect a return back commensurate with what they put in.

 

I guess the question is, what do you expect in terms of metrics at the end of the year from a pitcher who's making $13MM? And how does that compare to a pitcher who's making 2.3 times that?

 

Well, I'd put it another way.

 

Looking at 2015 Fangraphs WAR for pitchers among qualified starters

 

There was 1, with FIP

There were 14 with FIP between 2 and 3

There were 36 with FIP between 3 and 4

 

So as you move up the performance ladder - it becomes much much harder to extract that value - it is a scarcer commodity and so it should cost more asymmetrically. So you'd hope for the "ace" to be about a run better.

[sk7326]

WAR is what you're looking for. Clay needs a WAR of 2. Price needs a WAR of 4.5.

 

Yes, and I do think with pitchers WAR, the bulk innings have value in and of themselves - something Buchholz has generally not produced.

[Spudboy]

Well, I'd put it another way.

 

Looking at 2015 Fangraphs WAR for pitchers among qualified starters

 

There was 1, with FIP

There were 14 with FIP between 2 and 3

There were 36 with FIP between 3 and 4

 

So as you move up the performance ladder - it becomes much much harder to extract that value - it is a scarcer commodity and so it should cost more asymmetrically. So you'd hope for the "ace" to be about a run better.

 

This is a cool observation. I have never thought of these things as being non-linear.

[mvp 78]

WAR is what you're looking for. Clay needs a WAR of 2. Price needs a WAR of 4.5.

 

And neither will get there this season.

[User Name]

The concept of marginal utility weeps

 

Statistical impossibility.

[iortiz]

Salaries are not correlated with WAR numbers when a team makes an offer -- at very best is one of millions of things that they consider. Teams who are pro-stats have their own systems to value a players. There's an article posted several months ago in other thread that back up this. In the end, the market is who going to put the bar while teams take a lot of metrics, scouting and intangibles to make an offer according with their needs.

 

On the other hand WAR shows you a decent perspective of the value of certain player, but you always have to take it with a grain of salt.

Edited May 24, 2016 by iortiz

[Kimmi]

Again you're not getting it. Whether he sucks or not this season, the gamble was worth it.

 

And that is the bottom line.

[Kimmi]

Some are close to that. This Buch vs. Price discussion isn't far off.

 

No, sabermetric nerds would look at stats like FIP and BABIP and realize that Price is due for a turn in fortune.

[Bellhorn04]

No, sabermetric nerds would look at stats like FIP and BABIP and realize that Price is due for a turn in fortune.

 

Not to mention pitching coach Pedroia explaining where his hands should be.

[mvp 78]

And that is the bottom line.

 

The bottom line is that we don't agree and no amount of convincing will change that fact.

[Kimmi]

WAR is what you're looking for. Clay needs a WAR of 2. Price needs a WAR of 4.5.

 

I knew there was a reason I've always liked you.

[Kimmi]

The bottom line is that we don't agree and no amount of convincing will change that fact.

 

The problem is not in picking up Clay's option. The problem is in not having a solid Plan B to fall back on should Clay falter, which was a very real possibility. Picking up Clay's option should not have precluded having a viable Plan B. I think Rodriguez suffering such a long term injury added to the problem.

[Kimmi]

I would like to say in Slasher's defense that he is not a troll.

[mvp 78]

The problem is not in picking up Clay's option. The problem is in not having a solid Plan B to fall back on should Clay falter, which was a very real possibility. Picking up Clay's option should not have precluded having a viable Plan B. I think Rodriguez suffering such a long term injury added to the problem.

 

I disagree with the first assertion. If they dumped Clay, they would've brought in another arm that could have been better than Clay. If you feel that you need a backup plan for one of your starters, why even re-sign the guy?

 

Again, we're clearly not going to come to agreement.

[mvp 78]

I would like to say in Slasher's defense that he is not a troll.

 

He's had quite a few trollish posts for a non-troll (i.e. the Buchholz thread gotcha moment).

[Kimmi]

I disagree with the first assertion. If they dumped Clay, they would've brought in another arm that could have been better than Clay. If you feel that you need a backup plan for one of your starters, why even re-sign the guy?

 

Again, we're clearly not going to come to agreement.

 

Clay's $13 mil for one year should not have been a deciding factor in picking up another starter. The fact that another pitcher was not picked up tells me that there were none available for a price that the FO was willing to pay. Having Clay made it possible for the Sox not to have to overpay for another starter.

[User Name]

The problem is not in picking up Clay's option. The problem is in not having a solid Plan B to fall back on should Clay falter, which was a very real possibility. Picking up Clay's option should not have precluded having a viable Plan B. I think Rodriguez suffering such a long term injury added to the problem.

 

In a nutshell.

[mvp 78]

Clay's $13 mil for one year should not have been a deciding factor in picking up another starter.

 

But it seems like it was to me.

[mvp 78]

In a nutshell.

 

If you want ti throw away $13, go for it.

[a700hitter]

If they had traded him after exercising his option, they would have had $13 million to put toward another starter.

[mvp 78]

UN? posited that nobody wanted him. Miscalculation on their part?