2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread

[Nick]

“It’s been going pretty good,” the Portland manager said. “He’s familiar with the position. He’s played there before. He told me he played mostly center field and third base in Cuba, so he’s very familiar with the position. So he’s working on little details about having a wide base and it’s fast, where if you’re playing second base you have the luxury of staying back on the baseball. At third base you’ve got to be a little more aggressive, and react because you don’t have much time. Stuff like that. The transition is going to be easier for him because he’s done it before.

 

When the subject is broached, Moncada points to the fact he played third base for two years in Cuba, starting when he was 16 years old, and also spent time as a center fielder.

 

“Right now, it’s like riding a bike,” he said of his time at third base.

 

Hum....third base in not completely new to Moncada.....we act as though it's a brand new position for him.

[Nick]

Here's to Moncada playing 3B for Sox in 2017.

 

As long as our pitching is a suspect, we can't afford a black hole in the line up. We have to hit 1-9. Swihart should play winter ball somewhere to work on his catching. Even if he's a trade bait, wouldn't it increase his value for other teams to see him behind the plate?

 

Again, I don't think there's money to be spent on starting pitcher this winter. Money should go towards a power bat at DH. You can't have team full of doubles guys. Betts, Bradley and Xander are attractive in part because they can generate some power. Betts should be a 30 HR guy and both Xander and Bradley should hit 20 HR at some point. Throw in Encarnacion along with Moncada/Benintendi growing into their position, Sox becomes an offensive jauggernaut, with higher ceiling than this year's team.

[Jack Flap]

Barring a trade, next year's team will have Ramirez, Sandoval, Shaw, Moncada, and Travis in the 3B/1B/DH picture...I'm not sure we need to commit a multi-year contract to an aging DH who will cost a draft pick.

 

The nice thing is that in theory, assuming either Swihart or Vazquez finally steps up to cement the catching job long-term, we shouldn't even have to worry about the starting lineup for a few years...of course, things almost never work out that neatly.

[moonslav59]

James Shields had far more trade value than Pablo Sandoval last offseason and the difference in value has widened this season.

 

Shields remains under team control through 2019 (unless the righthander opts out after this season) with only a team option for the final year. At the time of his trade in June, the Padres were to pay about $30 million of the $57 million remaining on the Shields contract.

 

Shields had a horrific start this season en route to his current fWAR of 0.4, but has an ERA of 2.94 over his last eight starts. ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project fWAR between 0.5 and 0.8 over his final 11 starts this year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7059&position=P

 

Meanwhile, coming off a baseball-worst negative 2.0 fWAR in 2015, this year Sandoval underwent season-ending surgery after posting a negative 0.2 fWAR in only three games. ZiPS curiously projects Sandoval with 0.1 fWAR in 33 games the rest of the season.

 

With nearly $60 million remaining in is contract after this season, Sandoval may have the worst contract in baseball. Any trade of Sandoval would require that the Red Sox add a player of significant value to offset Sandoval's negative value.

 

An equivalent trade might be Hanley Ramirez (in the Shields role) for Prince Fielder (in the Sandoval role), a trade the Red Sox would never do.

 

Would the Red Sox trade Ramirez for Shields? Would the Red Sox trade Sandoval for Fielder? Those are the tougher questions.

 

I said Pablo and cash, and I meant enough cash to give the other team a financial gain. How much of a gain would be the question and would reflect their comparative values. Since Shields is considered a salary dump player right now, my hope was to save some money and get a possible plus pitcher in Shields. The other team saves money and gets a less possible plus hitter.

 

[harmony]

I said Pablo and cash, and I meant enough cash to give the other team a financial gain. How much of a gain would be the question and would reflect their comparative values. Since Shields is considered a salary dump player right now, my hope was to save some money and get a possible plus pitcher in Shields. The other team saves money and gets a less possible plus hitter.

James Shields' team is responsible for only $22 million over the next two years in the likely event the righthander does not opt out of his contract following this season. Given the tight market for starting pitchers, Shields and his contract have significant value.

Edited August 3, 2016 by harmony

[moonslav59]

With nearly $60 million remaining in is contract after this season, Sandoval may have the worst contract in baseball. Any trade of Sandoval would require that the Red Sox add a player of significant value to offset Sandoval's negative value.

 

Only worse contract was Pablo's with $80 million remaining at the beginning of this year. dws

 

Here are some contracts that challenge Pablo's:

While some of these guys may be producing more than Pablo this year, they may be injured, older and/or making even more than him going forward.

 

Pujols $140M/5 - turns 37 in January, has been in near steady decline for 7 straight seasons and is at a .763 OPS now.

Wright $67M/4- turns 34 and may be done with MLB due to back surgery. Has less PAs than Pablo in 2015-2016 combined.

Fielder $96M/4- turns 33 next May, is currently injured, had a .626 OPS this year and is about as fat as Pablo.

Kemp $65M/3- turns 32 in September and has seen his OPS slip below .770 the last 2 years and 3 of the last 4.

Ellsbury $90M/4- turns 33 in September, hasn't had an OPD above .700 in 2 years, is injured a lot and has seen his SBs go from 52 to 39 to 21 to 17 (w/ league leading 8 CS this year).

 

Pablo's not alone, and he's only 29, so if there is still an ounce of pride in his blubbery hide, maybe he will surprise us.

 

 

[a700hitter]

James Shields' team is responsible for only $22 million over the next two years in the likely event the righthander does not opt out of his contract following this season. Given the tight market for starting pitchers, Shields and his contract have value.

Prior to last night's game, Shields had 6 consecutive excellent starts.

[moonslav59]

“It’s been going pretty good,” the Portland manager said. “He’s familiar with the position. He’s played there before. He told me he played mostly center field and third base in Cuba, so he’s very familiar with the position. So he’s working on little details about having a wide base and it’s fast, where if you’re playing second base you have the luxury of staying back on the baseball. At third base you’ve got to be a little more aggressive, and react because you don’t have much time. Stuff like that. The transition is going to be easier for him because he’s done it before.

 

When the subject is broached, Moncada points to the fact he played third base for two years in Cuba, starting when he was 16 years old, and also spent time as a center fielder.

 

“Right now, it’s like riding a bike,” he said of his time at third base.

 

Hum....third base in not completely new to Moncada.....we act as though it's a brand new position for him.

 

That's good to hear. We all know he has the physical tools to be a plus fielder, but it may take more than a year for him to be good enough to play 3B or LF in MLB.

 

If he can never become plus at any position, he may end up at 1B or even DH. I think he may even start at DH next year, until he masters a position.

[moonslav59]

Here's to Moncada playing 3B for Sox in 2017.

 

As long as our pitching is a suspect, we can't afford a black hole in the line up. We have to hit 1-9. Swihart should play winter ball somewhere to work on his catching. Even if he's a trade bait, wouldn't it increase his value for other teams to see him behind the plate?

 

Again, I don't think there's money to be spent on starting pitcher this winter. Money should go towards a power bat at DH. You can't have team full of doubles guys. Betts, Bradley and Xander are attractive in part because they can generate some power. Betts should be a 30 HR guy and both Xander and Bradley should hit 20 HR at some point. Throw in Encarnacion along with Moncada/Benintendi growing into their position, Sox becomes an offensive jauggernaut, with higher ceiling than this year's team.

 

We will need to spend on RP'ers, and since there is no top quality SP'er on the market this year, we may end up spending on a big bat, but we do have some young power hitters right now that could and should grow their HR and 2B totals over the next few years.

 

Current pace for HR/2B+3B

 

Betts 33/53

J.B.Jr 26/48

Bogey 21/38

Shaw 18/44

Then, we still have:

Ramirez 21/32

Pedroia 18/38 (What's with these two guys low double totals?)

 

Having 6 guys with at least 18-20 HR potential, including 3 that should hit 25+ next year is pretty good. Whatever Beni and Moncada and Leon/Swihart/Vazquez can add would be gravy.

 

I'd love to add Encarnacion, but without fixing our staff, I doubt we'll be much better off than now, even with the infusion of youth with Beni & Moncada and increased productivity by our other young players.

 

[Hugh2]

Barring a trade, next year's team will have Ramirez, Sandoval, Shaw, Moncada, and Travis in the 3B/1B/DH picture...I'm not sure we need to commit a multi-year contract to an aging DH who will cost a draft pick.

 

The nice thing is that in theory, assuming either Swihart or Vazquez finally steps up to cement the catching job long-term, we shouldn't even have to worry about the starting lineup for a few years...of course, things almost never work out that neatly.

 

There will definitely be some competition for those spots. However, Shaw has come back down to earth and is showing the concerns that many scouts had with him coming up through the minors that he can't hit lefties. Moncada appears to be ready at the plate, but his splits are lagging behind. His swing from the right side could use some more work, I think he could hit RHP now but he might initially struggle against LHP without more development.

 

Sam Travis is a good but not stellar prospect who I thought would be in the fold for 2017 but his injury this year might have set him back. For me, to be able to fully commit to a rookie you'd like to see a strong track record in the minors and/or some success at the MLB level. Not only has he missed most of the year this year but he likely would have had some time up with the big club now if he didn't get hurt. If Sam Travis never tore his ACL he'd likely be getting called up now if he had already not. If he was still having a good year down in Pawtucket and showed promise the rest of this year I'd say he'd be a very strong candidate for 1B next year but now....I'm not so sure.

[harmony]

Here are some contracts that challenge Pablo's:

While some of these guys may be producing more than Pablo this year, they may be injured, older and/or making even more than him going forward.

 

Pujols $140M/5 - turns 37 in January, has been in near steady decline for 7 straight seasons and is at a .763 OPS now.

Wright $67M/4- turns 34 and may be done with MLB due to back surgery. Has less PAs than Pablo in 2015-2016 combined.

Fielder $96M/4- turns 33 next May, is currently injured, had a .626 OPS this year and is about as fat as Pablo.

Kemp $65M/3- turns 32 in September and has seen his OPS slip below .770 the last 2 years and 3 of the last 4.

Ellsbury $90M/4- turns 33 in September, hasn't had an OPD above .700 in 2 years, is injured a lot and has seen his SBs go from 52 to 39 to 21 to 17 (w/ league leading 8 CS this year).

 

Pablo's not alone, and he's only 29, so if there is still an ounce of pride in his blubbery hide, maybe he will surprise us.

For all their flaws, none of those players had posted a negative fWAR in the last two years until Prince Fielder dropped a negative 1.9 fWAR this season.

 

Pablo Sandoval, with a 2015 fWAR of a negative 2.0 and a 2016 fWAR of a negative 0.2 in three games this season, is probably in a class of his own.

[moonslav59]

James Shields' team is responsible for only $22 million over the next two years in the likely event the righthander does not opt out of his contract following this season. Given the tight market for starting pitchers, Shields and his contract have significant value.

 

It's minus value.

 

The CWS would have to pay part of his contract to deal him, even with the recent small sample size of success within the context of a steep decline over the last 2 years.

 

He's going to be 35 in December.

 

He has a 2016 ERA of 4.92 with a WHIP of 1.508.

 

In his last 11 starts with the CWS, he's got a 5.64 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

 

Maybe his last 6 games improves his value a little, but he is certainly still in minus territory.

 

Note: The Padres are paying $11M of his contract this year and next and all they got for Shields was Fernando Tatis and Erik Johnson. Ugggh!!! The Padres dumped him. The CWS will look to do so as well, if not in August then this winter. Besides, I just used Shields as an example. There are other high paid former pitching stars out there.

[moonslav59]

For all their flaws, none of those players had posted a negative fWAR in the last two years until Prince Fielder dropped a negative 1.9 fWAR this season.

 

Pablo Sandoval, with a 2015 fWAR of a negative 2.0 and a 2016 fWAR of a negative 0.2 in three games this season, is probably in a class of his own.

 

With all due respect, you said the same thing about Melvin Upton and the Padres just paid money to dump that plus WAR guy too.

[a700hitter]

With all due respect, you said the same thing about Melvin Upton and the Padres just paid money to dump that plus WAR guy too.

And the Padres are a model of a well run organization.

[moonslav59]

I agree with your opinions on TShaw (TS)and STravis (ST), and I'm counting on zero from Pablo, but we still have HanRam, Moncada, Young and Hernandez to fill in if TS and ST do not come through next year.

 

If Moncada needs to be platooned initially, then Young would make a perfect fit as a platoon partner (Young as a DH and Moncada as a 3Bman or DH). TShaw could platoon as well. I'm not sure Moncada will need to be platooned, since his AA numbers vs lefties are based on just 19 PAs. He had a .797 OPS vs lefties in ADV A-ball-- not great, but not bad either for a guy his age. He was actually much better vs LHPs last year (.951 to .753 in 100 PAs).

 

I'm very high on Hernandez as well. I think he'd make a nice 3Bman though maybe a little weak with the bat.

[harmony]

With all due respect, you said the same thing about Melvin Upton and the Padres just paid money to dump that plus WAR guy too.

The market for a starting pitcher differs from the market for a third or fourth outfielder.

[mvp 78]

Don't worry everyone: OGANDO HAS OPTED OUT OF HIS CONTRACT!!! We can get him back!

[a700hitter]

Don't worry everyone: OGANDO HAS OPTED OUT OF HIS CONTRACT!!! We can get him back!

Oh God No

[oldtimer]

I agree with your opinions on TShaw (TS)and STravis (ST), and I'm counting on zero from Pablo, but we still have HanRam, Moncada, Young and Hernandez to fill in if TS and ST do not come through next year.

 

If Moncada needs to be platooned initially, then Young would make a perfect fit as a platoon partner (Young as a DH and Moncada as a 3Bman or DH). TShaw could platoon as well. I'm not sure Moncada will need to be platooned, since his AA numbers vs lefties are based on just 19 PAs. He had a .797 OPS vs lefties in ADV A-ball-- not great, but not bad either for a guy his age. He was actually much better vs LHPs last year (.951 to .753 in 100 PAs).

 

I'm very high on Hernandez as well. I think he'd make a nice 3Bman though maybe a little weak with the bat.

 

Next year we should have a nice mix of veteran and young players in the field. Even better, some of our veteran players are young as well. Our veterans will include Pedroia, Bogaerts, Betts, Brandley, Leon, Hanley if he stays, Hill and Holt, also if they stay. Hannigan is unlikely to remain as his primary value is catching Wright. I expect our youth to include Benintendi and Moncada and possibly Devers. I doubt Travis will be ready due to his injury setback. I see Hernandez as a possibility for a utility role as his is a very good fielder. Maybe HOlt and Hill become trade chips.We also have a couple of options for a backup catcher behind Leon.

 

I would not like to see a young 5 tool kid like Moncada doing the DH. Hanley might fill that role, but doesn't impress me as the kind of reliable power bat we need. Certainly a possibility, but maybe he will be traded while we find a better overall power bat for DH

[moonslav59]

The market for a starting pitcher differs from the market for a third or fourth outfielder.

 

The point was about your use of WAR as a gauge for a player's value.

 

Plus, you stated Upton was not a salary dump player just a few months ago, when I suggested trading Pablo and cash for him and Gyorko..

[moonslav59]

Next year we should have a nice mix of veteran and young players in the field. Even better, some of our veteran players are young as well. Our veterans will include Pedroia, Bogaerts, Betts, Brandley, Leon, Hanley if he stays, Hill and Holt, also if they stay. Hannigan is unlikely to remain as his primary value is catching Wright. I expect our youth to include Benintendi and Moncada and possibly Devers. I doubt Travis will be ready due to his injury setback. I see Hernandez as a possibility for a utility role as his is a very good fielder. Maybe HOlt and Hill become trade chips.We also have a couple of options for a backup catcher behind Leon.

 

I would not like to see a young 5 tool kid like Moncada doing the DH. Hanley might fill that role, but doesn't impress me as the kind of reliable power bat we need. Certainly a possibility, but maybe he will be traded while we find a better overall power bat for DH

 

Hill is a FA after this year. Holt is here much longer.

 

Devers will not be ready next year.

 

Travis may not be in the mix next year or ever, but he is a possibility.

[cp176]

Tommy Layne has been released by the Red Sox. Although I am not surprised. It was inevitable I think but it is still a very sad experience when it happens to a good person. A good family man. I wish him well and thank him for being a member of our team.

[moonslav59]

Layne lost his ability to totally dominate LHBs. It's too bad.

 

Best of luck elsewhere.

[Nick]

Tommy Layne has been released by the Red Sox. Although I am not surprised. It was inevitable I think but it is still a very sad experience when it happens to a good person. A good family man. I wish him well and thank him for being a member of our team.

 

99% of the posters here would never be disrespectful to any of the Sox players. Sometimes internet posters, myself included, speak about the players as though they are commodities, sold, traded and discarded. But they have families and I have no doubt they are upstanding people.

 

My guess is that this was very difficult for John Farrell. He's closest to the player other than Layne's teammates. I think everyone here would wish him well.

Edited August 7, 2016 by Nick

[cp176]

99% of the posters here would never be disrespectful to any of the Sox players. Sometimes internet posters, myself included, speak about the players as though they are commodities, sold, traded and discarded. But they have families and I have no doubt they are upstanding people.

 

My guess is that this was very difficult for John Farrell. He's closest to the player other than Layne's teammates. I think everyone here would wish him well.

 

We are all fans and we get caught up in the emotion of the moment. That is not a bad thing. It is a good type of passion that we all have. I bet that you are right about Farrell and his feelings toward his players as well.

[moonslav59]

They're all BUMS!

 

Just kidding.

[cp176]

glad to see tommy catching on with somebody even if it is the spankies.

[Spudboy]

glad to see tommy catching on with somebody even if it is the spankies.

 

Me too.

 

He did his job here for the most part and everyone around the team really liked the guy.

 

I hope that he gets to play several more years and makes some money for his family.

[a700hitter]

Me too.

 

He did his job here for the most part and everyone around the team really liked the guy.

 

I hope that he gets to play several more years and makes some money for his family.

I hope Farrell joins him soon.

[cp176]

I hope Farrell joins him soon.

 

if he joins Layne, he will be right across the road from you! You won't like that.(lol)