A Realistic View at 2016

[sk7326]

I would love to throw money at Kenley Jansen. He's a better pitcher than Chapman. Better than almost anyone. If there's any way he could be happy with a setup role, I'd give him all the money.

 

About the same - though he has had a better season (helps to not have a suspension). Andrew Miller might have been better than either.

[Kimmi]

You are correct. I was just throwing out names.

 

I know that Moon has talked about Sox needing couple of relievers. We paid $13M for Koji and Tazawa. We need a bona fide left hander. Robbie Ross Jr and Robby Scott are decent #2 and #3 lefties. Why not just sign Chapman? That's who I would target.

 

I guess my question is do we have enough money AND tie up capital for Chapman (4 years @ $60M) and Encarnacion (5 years @ $100M) with pending FA looming in couple of years?

 

Personally, I would not spend that kind of money on a reliever.

 

I wouldn't spend that kind of money on Encarnacion either.

[moonslav59]

What closer will come to the Sox knowing Kimbrel is the closer?

 

If we tell Jansen or Chapman they will close, the following day Kimbrel will demand a trade.

 

[Nick]

What closer will come to the Sox knowing Kimbrel is the closer?

 

If we tell Jansen or Chapman they will close, the following day Kimbrel will demand a trade.

 

 

If I offer Chapman $30M and tell him he won't be the closer, he'll refuse? Are the closers that stupid?

[moonslav59]

If I offer Chapman $30M and tell him he won't be the closer, he'll refuse? Are the closers that stupid?

 

$30M/1 or $30M x 5 years?

 

1) That's about double what top closers get paid per year.

2) I know the 9th inning is important, but $30M for about 60 innings is a gross overpay, even for someone you could guarantee a 0.00 ERA over 60 innings.

3) I do think our pen improvement is the most important area of need. The 3B job is up in the air, but with about 6 guys fighting for the job, I doubt we make that position our big splash move.

4) I get that acquiring the best "set-up" guys can be somewhat elusive or illusive, so your idea has merit in terms of offering whatever it takes to get him to say yes to be our #2. If it takes $30M a year to get him, I'd say that's way too much, sorry and adios.

[moonslav59]

This from MLBTR....

 

...The White Sox have to trade Frazier, Melky Cabrera, and Miguel Gonzalez, who are controlled through 2017. It would be logical to unload the well-compensated David Robertson (signed through 2018), and to trade or non-tender Lawrie and Avisail Garcia. James Shields should be released.

 

The White Sox control ace starter Chris Sale through 2019. If 2017 and 2018 are looking bleak, then now’s the time to cash Sale in for a king’s ransom. While wingman Jose Quintana is controlled for one additional year beyond Sale, it makes sense to trade both if they’re trading one. Particularly in a free agent market devoid of starting pitching, Hahn would hold the two best cards. Abreu, controlled through 2019 like Sale, would logically be dealt as well. The team would be building toward a 2020 reboot...

 

Could a blockbuster be in store?

 

Could us taking on salary from their dumps lessen the return demand?

 

Shields is owed $45M/2 or $58M/3 ($18.8M luxury hit)

Cabrera owed $15M/1 ($14M luxury hit)

 

Other better contracts:

Quintana is owed $26M/3 or $35.4M/4 (luxury hit $4.2M)

C Sale is owed $25.5M/2 or $38M/3 (luxury hit $6.5M)

Robertson is owed $25M/2 ($11.5M)

Abreu is owed $4M/3 ($11.3M luxury hit)

Todd Frazier has one arb year left.

 

We could use a huge rotation upgrade (Quintana or Sale?), a top RP'er who can't choose being made a number #2 (Robertson) and a stop gap 3Bman (Frazier) until Moncada could be ready. We could even move HanRam to DH and add Abreu.

 

So, what would it take to get Quintana, Robertson, Frazier and Abreu?

 

We'd have to start with Moncada and or Benintendi, so if it's Moncada, then Frazier as a stop-gap is for not. If it's Beni, we'll need a LF'er (Moncada? Swihart? Young?) Could Frazier bridge to Devers?

 

Let's say it's Moncada. Add Shaw, Kopech, S Travis, Dubon, Basabe, and we're still short. Take on Shields and maybe we'd be closer, but now we're way over the luxury limit.

 

Let's say it's Beni and we take on Cabrera as another "bridge".

 

Let's say it's both...

 

I'm not sure something this large is even able to be discussed. It's too complex. I'm sure the White Sox will want way more than what I have listed as a starting point, but if they will truly be looking at 2020 and beyond, then guys like JBJ, Betts and Bogey wouldn't make a lot of sense. Would they want all our long term gems?

Groome & Kopech.

Moncada & Basabe or Beni & Devers

Shaw and Travis

Dubon and more?

Owens and Johnson?

 

It's late, I'm asleep. Did I just post this crap?

 

 

[Nick]

Secondary needs

 

1. Upgrade front line pitching....can we acquire Chris Sales without giving up the farm? Or are we willing to part with say both Gomes and Kopech? Or is that even enough? I would not give up neither Beni nor Moncada.

2. Top of line closer caliber reliever (but who is not actually a closer)....who and what would it take?

3. Top DH....Encarnacion....how much and how long? Are we willing to go over cap? Will FO listen to Ortiz? He will play a role similar to Martinez, no? If we love Ortiz so much why do we all think it's a stupid idea?

 

Primary needs

 

1. Relievers..Koji, Tazawa, Ziegler replaced by C. Smith, J.Kelly and ??????. Basically Ziegler acquisition was to mitigate the loss of C Smith. (although it was perfectly timed as Kimbrel went down at the same time) Emergence of Joe Kelly may have reduced the 'need' number to 1 reliever. Very doable.

2. Hanley has proven more than adequate at 1B. We still need DH and 3B. Do you platoon say Shaw and Young at DH? Are there cheaper solutions to acquire 2 players for short term without blocking Moncada? Can we live with Shaw in the lineup knowing offensive contribution from catching spot will surely go down and big bat of Big Papi will be gone. Three black holes?

 

We have some work to do.

Edited September 27, 2016 by Nick

[kenmeister]

Do you platoon say Shaw and Young at DH?

 

I also see Blake Swihart getting time at DH, if he gets the backup catcher role.

 

But in general I love the concept of DH as an opportunity to keep players fresh. Unless you get an Ortiz/Encarcion type player, it isn't worth dedicating the spot to one person.

[Bellhorn04]

I also see Blake Swihart getting time at DH, if he gets the backup catcher role.

 

But in general I love the concept of DH as an opportunity to keep players fresh. Unless you get an Ortiz/Encarcion type player, it isn't worth dedicating the spot to one person.

 

Personally I think that's one of those ideas that is great in theory but not in reality. I want that Ortiz/Encarnacion type, or something in the ballpark at least.

[Nick]

Personally I think that's one of those ideas that is great in theory but not in reality. I want that Ortiz/Encarnacion type, or something in the ballpark at least.

 

+1 DH by committee sounds too much like Ace by committee approach of two years ago....how did that work out?

[moonslav59]

I still think the DH role might best suit HanRam, so I'd say 1B might be a "secondary need" instead of DH. He's a below average fielder, but if being a DH leads to a lack of focus or attention, then maybe 1B is best for him.

 

If we make no acquisitions at corner IF. I think this might be best:

 

1B: Shaw vs RHPs/ HanRam vs LHPs

DH: HanRam vs RHPs/Young vs LHPs

3B: Pablo or Moncada vs RHPs/ Hernandez vs LHPs

 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2016 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Chris Young has never played 1b. Not saying that he couldn't, but there's no guarantee he'd be good at it.

[moonslav59]

+1 DH by committee sounds too much like Ace by committee approach of two years ago....how did that work out?

 

To me, Young is a near must to play vs LHPs, and I don't want to sit beni, Betts or Bradley, so DH seems like a fit for Young. I'm not sure he's good enough vs RHPs to be our FT DH, and since we have a ton of guys that hit righties better, I think a DH platoon might end up being what we get- like it or not. Maybe Moncada-Young, HanRam-Young (see my last post) or Pablo-Young. Long shot: Swihart.

[moonslav59]

Chris Young has never played 1b. Not saying that he couldn't, but there's no guarantee he'd be good at it.

 

I mixed up DH and 1B. I went back and edited it.

[moonslav59]

1B: Shaw vs RHPs/ HanRam vs LHPs

DH: HanRam vs RHPs/Young vs LHPs

3B: Pablo or Moncada vs RHPs/ Hernandez vs LHPs

 

I can totally understand why anyone might be unhappy with this set-up, especially when compared to one with Papi at DH FT.

 

I can see why people want a 3Bman, DH or corner IF'er. If money were not an object, I'd say let's go out and get Turner at 3B or EE at DH, but I'm not sure it will happen.

 

1) Money is a concern, and going over the luxury tax this year will be a 50% tax. (We're already spending $19.5M on 3B for the next 3 years.)

2) Signing a really good player, usually means 3+ years. This would block Moncada and/or Devers and possibly even Swihart down the road.

3) Spending at 3B or DH may lessen what we can spend on the pen (see #1).

 

[mvp 78]

I mixed up DH and 1B. I went back and edited it.

 

And not to throw anything else in the mix, but the Sox are going to have Hernandez play OF in winter ball.

[Nick]

1B: Shaw vs RHPs/ HanRam vs LHPs

DH: HanRam vs RHPs/Young vs LHPs

3B: Pablo or Moncada vs RHPs/ Hernandez vs LHPs

 

I can totally understand why anyone might be unhappy with this set-up, especially when compared to one with Papi at DH FT.

 

I can see why people want a 3Bman, DH or corner IF'er. If money were not an object, I'd say let's go out and get Turner at 3B or EE at DH, but I'm not sure it will happen.

 

1) Money is a concern, and going over the luxury tax this year will be a 50% tax. (We're already spending $19.5M on 3B for the next 3 years.)

2) Signing a really good player, usually means 3+ years. This would block Moncada and/or Devers and possibly even Swihart down the road.

3) Spending at 3B or DH may lessen what we can spend on the pen (see #1).

 

 

Moon

 

Knowing all what we know about DD, what do you think will be his approach? He's very methodical. He identifies needs, then goes about resolving them (within reason of course).

 

IF we win it all, will there be a grace period to be patient and wait as we solve internally some of our shortcomings? Acquiring a Ziegler type reliever(s) should not be a big issue. Picking up Clay B's option will be the easiest way to assure some depth for next year.

 

I suppose he may chose to wait and see for trade deadline and react to what we need. I always attempt to look through management's perspective. I'm just not sure what the limits are with player payroll.

 

I did read something to the effect, for the Yankees anyway, it was additional $30M or so when they make the playoffs versus not making it. And most of it hits the bottom line because player salaries are fixed.

Edited September 27, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Moon

 

Knowing all what we know about DD, what do you think will be his approach? He's very methodical. He identifies needs, then goes about resolving them (within reason of course).

 

IF we win it all, will there be a grace period to be patient and wait as we solve internally some of our shortcomings? Acquiring a Ziegler type reliever(s) should not be a big issue. Picking up Clay B's option will be the easiest way to assure some depth for next year.

 

I suppose he may chose to wait and see for trade deadline and react to what we need. I always attempt to look through management's perspective. I'm just not sure what the limits are with player payroll.

 

I did read something to the effect, for the Yankees anyway, it was additional $30M or so when they make the playoffs versus not making it. And most of it hits the bottom line because player salaries are fixed.

 

I do not think DD will make a big splash this winter.

 

He will sign or trade for 3 quality RP'ers or 2 very good set-up men.

 

He will sign or trade for a 1-2 year stop gap 3Bman, but he may wait out the Pablo-Moncada-Shaw competition and trade at the deadline.

 

If does go big, it might be a trade with the CWS for Quinatna or Sale.

[User Name]

Edwin Encarnacion will be a member of the Red Sox. You can write it in blood.

[cp176]

Edwin Encarnacion will be a member of the Red Sox. You can write it in blood.

 

Thumbs up on this one and why not? What's to lose? Setting myself up pretty well for this one. I'll add also that if they make a trade, it won't involve JBJ.

[Bellhorn04]

Edwin Encarnacion will be a member of the Red Sox. You can write it in blood.

 

What about the Evil Ones?

[mvp 78]

Edwin Encarnacion will be a member of the Red Sox. You can write it in blood.

 

As my daughter would say "nopey."

[Nick]

Edwin Encarnacion will be a member of the Red Sox. You can write it in blood.

 

I have a feeling that Sox FO believes DH is a specialty skill, something not every position player can do. It's almost like pinch hitting 4 times during a game. I'd think some position players won't like it.

[User Name]

As my daughter would say "nopey."

 

In this case, both you and your daughter are wrong.

[cp176]

I have a feeling that Sox FO believes DH is a specialty skill, something not every position player can do. It's almost like pinch hitting 4 times during a game. I'd think some position players won't like it.

 

I think that I agree with you here. I also think that they don't have many really high profile moves to make during this off season. They are in pretty good shape. If they decide to go hard after another starter this winter it will be via trade. They may sign another bullpen guy but I'm sure that they are hoping for a healthy Smith return. Papi's retirement creates a power hole in the middle of their lineup that makes them all better hitters. A patchwork of really good potential players might very well fill the hole adequately but if you are the Boston Red Sox why would you do that? It is conceivable that by sticking EE's bat in the middle of the lineup they might not really have to do much else at all.

[moonslav59]

What's to lose?

 

I seriously doubt EE will be the next Crawford or Pablo, but at his age, the probability is there that he falls far short of expectations. Most big signings do, so I find it hard to believe that you can't even see there is something to lose.

 

We can't keep adding Pablos, Rusneys, Craigs or last year's HanRams.

 

Again, I'm not saying I think EE will decline quickly, but if we spend large and long on him and he lets us down, there will be an impact and that impact could be significant. Our budget is not limitless. The loss of Papi loss was one of the very few FT openings we will have in years. All our starters ae tied up in contracts for 3 or more years. That leaves very little room for Moncada, Devers, Travis, Dubon and others. Of course, we can trade someone, if one of these kids gets better than a starter, but we aren't likely to get much salary relief. Nobody wants Pablo.

 

Don't get me wrong; I'd love to add EE to our club, but if it's at the expense of not seriously rebuilding the pen or eventually finding another ace-type starter, then it's time to think long and hard about making a 4-5 year commitment. (Mark that in blood: 4+ years for EE.)

 

For those who want EE, please tell me what is the max you'd give for 4 year and the max you'd give for 5 years.

 

[moonslav59]

They may sign another bullpen guy but I'm sure that they are hoping for a healthy Smith return.

 

Our pen sucked just about all year, until very recently, and much of the turn around was due to Ziegler, the return of Uehara & Tazawa, and the rise of Kelly and guys like Scott.

 

To think we can lose Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa and replace the three with one guy coming back from serious injury, Carson Smith plus maybe one other guy, i think is taking a huge risk. Now, it may be easier to fix a pen issue mid season than a big offensive issue or a SP'er need, but we can't neglect the pen this winter. Here's how I see it, assuming Buch is back next year:

 

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 C Smith

RP3 Buch or Pom or Wright

RP4 Ross

RP5 Kelly

RP6 Barnes

RP7 Abad/Hembree/Scott/Elias

 

There's lots of hope and promise here, but there is a strong chance some of these guys fail or get hurt.

 

 

[cp176]

Relax- deep breaths required - is it not possible that they sign Ziegler, Uehara, or Tazawa? Maybe 2 maybe all 3? It is my opinion that this team will be just fine if they go out and sign Encarnarcion to a reasonable contract. No one in their right mind would advocate for throwing the kind of money the Red Sox have at bullpen pieces. You know perfectly well that if a trade is made for a TOTR pitcher it will cost at least one good position player. You have mentioned JBJ. Really? Take his production and Papi's out of the lineup and try to replace it from within? Really? 60 plus homeruns what 200 rbi's? Good luck with that coming from within. If they did 0 this off season and simply signed EE to a reasonable contract they would be a pant load better off.

You can hyperventilate over the monetary issues that this team faces this off season, I choose not to. I do not see the problems that you see.

[moonslav59]

You know perfectly well that if a trade is made for a TOTR pitcher it will cost at least one good position player.

 

Talk has been going around that if the CWS do plan on rebuilding, it would be for 2020 and beyond. That might mean they could settle on longer down-the-road prospects over the likes of JBJ. Maybe, just maybe, they could take some mix of...

Moncada or Devers

Kopech or Groome

Basabe

Dubon

and Shaw or Travis.

 

[Nick]

Relax- deep breaths required - is it not possible that they sign Ziegler, Uehara, or Tazawa? Maybe 2 maybe all 3? It is my opinion that this team will be just fine if they go out and sign Encarnarcion to a reasonable contract. No one in their right mind would advocate for throwing the kind of money the Red Sox have at bullpen pieces. You know perfectly well that if a trade is made for a TOTR pitcher it will cost at least one good position player. You have mentioned JBJ. Really? Take his production and Papi's out of the lineup and try to replace it from within? Really? 60 plus homeruns what 200 rbi's? Good luck with that coming from within. If they did 0 this off season and simply signed EE to a reasonable contract they would be a pant load better off.

You can hyperventilate over the monetary issues that this team faces this off season, I choose not to. I do not see the problems that you see.

 

You make too much sense...our starting rotation is fine, sign Clay B.

 

Our bullpen needs one addition. There are cheap options. See Moon's current list in our bullpen.

 

Our OF is solid, having full year out of Beni. Young and Holt can provide depth.

 

3B needs tweaking. Worst case, pick up another right handed bat to go with Shaw.

 

3B can be mediocre if we have a legit bat at DH, EE.

 

We have enough money.

Edited September 28, 2016 by Nick