A Realistic View at 2016

[oldtimer]

Exactly. Thats the juggling act GMs have every year. Who to go with and who to let go. Its a balance of salaries between young controllable players and guys approaching FA and their signability. Im sure they have a really good feel for who they have a better chance of signing. But bottom line is I dont believe all three will be here theoughout their arb years.

 

GM's tends to copy what works in the successful teams. That means the Sox approach will be looked at and copied where possible. But what really is special about the Sox, and can they recognize what has gotten them to this stage of success in the strong East? We have a strong cadre of talented outfielders and young players who are excellent both defensively and at the plate. The lesson there is don't trade away your good young prospects and players to land questionable experienced guys. We resisted the tendency to go for big names and kept our young talent. Takeaway? Don't trade Swihart, Devers or Moncada. They may be next years Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts.

 

I don't think the Sox are that different than other teams in trying to retain a cadre of quality veteran players to solidify the young talent into a cohesive team. I guess one difference is we were fortunate to have Ortiz who has been a one of a kind talent, even at 40 years old.

 

In the pitching arena, I think that having a GM that is willing to act and to get value in any trade is the Red Sox forte. The acquisition of Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Price, Ziegler and Abad were good moves. Pomeranz is likely to be a more dependable starter and get more innings next year as he will come in fresh. Abad has the stuff but to date hasn't shown his potential. The book is out on him.

[sk7326]

GM's tends to copy what works in the successful teams. That means the Sox approach will be looked at and copied where possible. But what really is special about the Sox, and can they recognize what has gotten them to this stage of success in the strong East? We have a strong cadre of talented outfielders and young players who are excellent both defensively and at the plate. The lesson there is don't trade away your good young prospects and players to land questionable experienced guys. We resisted the tendency to go for big names and kept our young talent. Takeaway? Don't trade Swihart, Devers or Moncada. They may be next years Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts.

 

I don't think the Sox are that different than other teams in trying to retain a cadre of quality veteran players to solidify the young talent into a cohesive team. I guess one difference is we were fortunate to have Ortiz who has been a one of a kind talent, even at 40 years old.

 

In the pitching arena, I think that having a GM that is willing to act and to get value in any trade is the Red Sox forte. The acquisition of Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Price, Ziegler and Abad were good moves. Pomeranz is likely to be a more dependable starter and get more innings next year as he will come in fresh. Abad has the stuff but to date hasn't shown his potential. The book is out on him.

 

The Sox approach has been copied - has been for a decade - it has been best in class along with the Cards among FO types.

[southpaw777]

GM's tends to copy what works in the successful teams. That means the Sox approach will be looked at and copied where possible. But what really is special about the Sox, and can they recognize what has gotten them to this stage of success in the strong East? We have a strong cadre of talented outfielders and young players who are excellent both defensively and at the plate. The lesson there is don't trade away your good young prospects and players to land questionable experienced guys. We resisted the tendency to go for big names and kept our young talent. Takeaway? Don't trade Swihart, Devers or Moncada. They may be next years Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts.

 

I don't think the Sox are that different than other teams in trying to retain a cadre of quality veteran players to solidify the young talent into a cohesive team. I guess one difference is we were fortunate to have Ortiz who has been a one of a kind talent, even at 40 years old.

 

In the pitching arena, I think that having a GM that is willing to act and to get value in any trade is the Red Sox forte. The acquisition of Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Price, Ziegler and Abad were good moves. Pomeranz is likely to be a more dependable starter and get more innings next year as he will come in fresh. Abad has the stuff but to date hasn't shown his potential. The book is out on him.

 

The good thing about having to pay certain guys is that we can. Not a lot of teams will even approach a 189M payroll like the Sox will...And be willing to go over it. Soon the LT should be at or around 200M.

You have to trade young prospects sometimes. Its just part of the game. Even really good ones depending on whats going on in the organization. The trade has to be whats best for the organization. The Goal for every organization regarding trades is to get the best possible value back in return. DD seems pretty good at this. Kimbrel has been a good move. pomeranz was needed and looks to be a good/smart move, even if Espi works out. Bringing up Benintendi. Holding on to certain prospects/young players. Good draft getting Groome. So Id say hes done really well so far overall.

I didnt like that they didnt sign Lester to what couldve been a 22M/5-6 year deal at the time. He is still going to be worth what the Cubs gave him into his mid 30s IMHO. I think Price has adjusted to his new team and will end up earning his pay. FA is always going to cost more, so 30M is fair for an Ace is todays MLB. Thats why locking up Lester was so important. We probably couldve had Lester and Porcello for 42M rather than 50M with Price. There is always those certain vets that your going to have to pay, including your own home grown talent when/if the time comes. Eventually your going to have to pay some of these guys. Thats just part of it. Unless your the Rays or Athletics of course. But were not

The trick is to identify those in your own system and lock them up early if possible and your payroll allows.. Not all moves/deals will work out. But Between good drafting, development, trades/FA, and also figuring in injuries and underperformance that always happens, theres a lot going on for a Prez of Baseball ops and a GM to juggle. Theres always going to be deals that go wrong and prospects that dont work out, etc. you just have do more good than bad. Not easy, but I like who we have in the FO running thins right now.

Edited September 25, 2016 by southpaw777

[Nick]

Bullpen for 2017

 

Craig Kimbrel

Carson Smith

Heath Hembre

Joe Kelly

Robbie Ross Jr

Matt Barnes

Fernando Abad

Robby Scott

 

good start

[Maxbialystock]

Bullpen for 2017

 

Craig Kimbrel

Carson Smith

Heath Hembre

Joe Kelly

Robbie Ross Jr

Matt Barnes

Fernando Abad

Robby Scott

 

good start

 

Aren't you jumping the gun just a tad or don't you think the bullpen for the 2016 playoffs--take a look at the thread title--is important?

[Nick]

Aren't you jumping the gun just a tad or don't you think the bullpen for the 2016 playoffs--take a look at the thread title--is important?

 

Well there's actually no thread titled A Realistic View at 2017....there's been numerous discussions about next year's roster. You can always just ignore.

[moonslav59]

Well, actually if you read the opening post of this thread, it's more about 2017.

 

Really, this thread is about all things to do with the Sox, with emphasis on 2016.

 

I've been in Cancun for a couple days, so I'll have to watch the last 2 games when I get home tomorrow. Nice to see the streak is still alive!

 

[d-money]

I feel this team's the best team in the american league and should get to the world series but you have to play the games. Price has to get over the hump in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

All you can ask is to try and have the best team on paper heading into the playoffs playing well on somewhat healthy.

 

I like where we are right now. It's where I thought we'd be.

[mvp 78]

Bullpen for 2017

 

Craig Kimbrel

Carson Smith

Heath Hembre

Joe Kelly

Robbie Ross Jr

Matt Barnes

Fernando Abad

Robby Scott

 

good start

 

Not sure they need a 13 man rotation.

[Nick]

Not sure they need a 13 man rotation.

 

You are correct. I was just throwing out names.

 

I know that Moon has talked about Sox needing couple of relievers. We paid $13M for Koji and Tazawa. We need a bona fide left hander. Robbie Ross Jr and Robby Scott are decent #2 and #3 lefties. Why not just sign Chapman? That's who I would target.

 

I guess my question is do we have enough money AND tie up capital for Chapman (4 years @ $60M) and Encarnacion (5 years @ $100M) with pending FA looming in couple of years?

[User Name]

Chapman is getting way more than 4/60. You can take that to the bank.

[Nick]

Chapman is getting way more than 4/60. You can take that to the bank.

 

He's currently the highest paid at $11,325,000. Miller signed for 4 years @ $36M last year. $15M per year looks reasonable to me, especially for a reliever. I certainly wouldn't pay anymore for him.

 

Not very many teams can afford him and that should work in Sox's favor.

[User Name]

17 per annum for a minimum of 6 years. And Jansen is also getting more than four years.

[sk7326]

17 per annum for a minimum of 6 years. And Jansen is also getting more than four years.

 

And Miller has proven he can be a legitimate "relief ace" in the way that folks like us have begged for. You bring in Chapman or Jansen, you aren't buying much versatility.

[Nick]

And Miller has proven he can be a legitimate "relief ace" in the way that folks like us have begged for. You bring in Chapman or Jansen, you aren't buying much versatility.

 

Yep....that was a big miss, especially for an organization that signed Porcello to 4 year, $82M on potential.

[Nick]

There was a good article on how the spread between team revenue and luxury tax threashhold has widened over the last few years (obviously the TV revenue has skyrocketed).

 

It's time to put the limit to around $230M so we can sign Encarnacion and Chapman without luxury tax implications.

Edited September 26, 2016 by Nick

[User Name]

Chapman is not going to be a member of the Boston Red Sox. Not only the financial implications, but also the existence of one Craig Kimbrel.

[Nick]

Chapman is not going to be a member of the Boston Red Sox. Not only the financial implications, but also the existence of one Craig Kimbrel.

 

It's unfortunate that in today's me first generation that one won't pitch the 8th inning no matter how much he's getting paid to do it.

[User Name]

With Andrew Miller being the notable exception. I'm betting the "relief ace" designation will catch on soon, and "true firemen" are going to be the ones making the big bucks instead of one-inning closers.

[mvp 78]

It's unfortunate that in today's me first generation that one won't pitch the 8th inning no matter how much he's getting paid to do it.

 

How often did Eck come in to pitch the 8th?

[greenwell]

How often did Eck come in to pitch the 8th?

 

About 20 times a year from 88-93. Compared to 5 this year for Kimbrell

[mvp 78]

About 20 times a year from 88-93. Compared to 5 this year for Kimbrell

 

Not sure how you're coming up with "about 20 times a year."

[greenwell]

Not sure how you're coming up with "about 20 times a year."

 

Baseball reference gives splits by inning. Eck pitched in the 8th inning somewhere between 17 and 22 times each year.

[sk7326]

Yep....that was a big miss, especially for an organization that signed Porcello to 4 year, $82M on potential.

 

Oh I don't know - the org decision to not spend stupid money on a reliever I am generally on board with. And they turned him into a quality young starter! For all the whining about the Red Sox not being able to develop pitching, Andrew Miller was an incredible triumph.

[Nick]

If I'm the highest paid reliever in mlb, why would I care how I'm used? If my ego is that big, then I wouldn't sign me. It's not like the team is going to use me in low leverage situations.

[sk7326]

It's unfortunate that in today's me first generation that one won't pitch the 8th inning no matter how much he's getting paid to do it.

 

i don't think it is that so much as simple habit - teams do not align their bullpens that way except for rare exceptions ... pitchers like knowing when they will work, the way starters do - and I imagine build routine around that. In this specialized era, finding guys who can sort of work without that net is hard ... and it also means messing with creatures of habit who might get usurped by this dude.

 

Obviously there are exceptions - Francona used Papelbon for 6 outs regularly in the postseason, and treated Foulke very much like a relief ace in 2004. But Foulke was a unique bird too.

[Nick]

Okay, I'm losing my arguement.

 

Champman will not come to Red Sox for the simple reason he won't pitch anything but the 9th inning. My bad. He will want even more money to pitch in 'hold' situation. Got it.

[Dojji]

I would love to throw money at Kenley Jansen. He's a better pitcher than Chapman. Better than almost anyone. If there's any way he could be happy with a setup role, I'd give him all the money.

[sk7326]

Okay, I'm losing my arguement.

 

Champman will not come to Red Sox for the simple reason he won't pitch anything but the 9th inning. My bad. He will want even more money to pitch in 'hold' situation. Got it.

 

Put another way, I wouldn't want to pay ANYBODY a ton of money to work a particular designated inning (even the 9th, but the horse has left the barn there).