A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

Somehow an approach of 'let's just throw a bunch of stuff at the wall and see what happens' isn't very reassuring.

 

Right now our 2017 bullpen has Kimbrel, Smith hopefully, Ross, Kelly hopefully, Barnes and God knows what else.

 

Very true. We don't need to sign 3 closers to greatly improve our pen. We could use a solid #2 (making Smith our #3) and maybe a couple good #3-4 types.

 

Maybe Kelly will prove he's good enough for one of those roles. Maybe Abad will settle down and show he can be our LOOGY, but I don't see his history as supporting that he be solidly, penciled into that role.

 

I still have hope in Barnes and Hembree, but not enough to not want some reliable insurance against their failure.

 

Although I do not think signing a big bat would be prudent, I think the Sox will look for the best shortest term deal they can find (Beltran?). That will eat up a sizable chunk of the luxury budget limit, but not enough to prevent the pen-building needed. The rotation upgrading will have to wait.

 

[moonslav59]

We may have been a little premature with all the oohing and ahhing about getting ERod for Miller.

 

Not really. We traded 2 months of Miller during a "lost season" for a promising starter.

 

We could have signed Miller and had both. What Miller has done after free agency should not count against or for the trade.

[a700hitter]

Not really. We traded 2 months of Miller during a "lost season" for a promising starter.

 

We could have signed Miller and had both. What Miller has done after free agency should not count against or for the trade.

I realize that, but the oohing and ahhing over ERod may still have been premature.

 

Edit: Compared to the Tigers getting Fullmer for 2 months of Cespedes, the ERod trade doesn't look like such a bargain.

[Nick]

E Rod is still young and is capable of becoming next Porcello. It we don't sign Encarnacion, I hope we go after Chapman.

 

Ziegler is probably going back to Arizona. It was a win win for Arizona to trade away Ziegler to Sox as a rental and get him back for 2017 and beyond. We could have done the same with Miller.

 

One benefit of couple of lousy seasons is that we have added some quality prospects in our farm system. I'm intrigued by the kid from Arizona, Dalbec (?) and his power. Of course, he'll be blocked by Moncada so he

will need to move.....just kidding....he has a way to go.

Edited September 3, 2016 by Nick

[Wade Boggs]

The Cubs offered Chapman 4/48m when they made the deal with NYY, he wanted to test F/A. The Yankees will be involved with Chapman. Do you want to pay a closer up to 13 m a year when you have Kimbrel. Do you pay big money on Encarnacion when you are still tied with dead money with Panda, Castillo, and Craig. I hear what your saying. These will be all tough calls that DD will have to make.

[Nick]

The Cubs offered Chapman 4/48m when they made the deal with NYY, he wanted to test F/A. The Yankees will be involved with Chapman. Do you want to pay a closer up to 13 m a year when you have Kimbrel. Do you pay big money on Encarnacion when you are still tied with dead money with Panda, Castillo, and Craig. I hear what your saying. These will be all tough calls that DD will have to make.

 

Moon thinks we have $30M to spend....I think it's closer to $40M (Ortiz, Koji, Hanigan, Tazawa plus increase in luxury tax). As Moon pointed out, it's getting locked into say Encarnacion for several years that may pose problems in couple of years when our B boys become free agent.

 

I just don't see how we can ignore the fact that Ortiz' contribution to this year's team was unbelievable and we do nothing to address it other than to say we'll mitigate it by getting larger contribution from other eight players. It will be tough for Betts as an example to duplicate this season. He can but he may not. What if Pedey gets hurt?

Edited September 3, 2016 by Nick

[oldtimer]

The Cubs offered Chapman 4/48m when they made the deal with NYY, he wanted to test F/A. The Yankees will be involved with Chapman. Do you want to pay a closer up to 13 m a year when you have Kimbrel. Do you pay big money on Encarnacion when you are still tied with dead money with Panda, Castillo, and Craig. I hear what your saying. These will be all tough calls that DD will have to make.

 

We appear to have the most urgent need with Bull Pen help. Getting an ageing Encarnacion by giving a large long term contract seems to tie us down more financially with possibly only a small incremental gain, which would likely decline with time. By moving Hanley to DH (which is likely) and moving Shaw or Holt to first, we will have a very good lineup next season. Put the money into areas that will give us the most gain for the investment.

[moonslav59]

I realize that, but the oohing and ahhing over ERod may still have been premature.

 

Edit: Compared to the Tigers getting Fullmer for 2 months of Cespedes, the ERod trade doesn't look like such a bargain.

 

True, but Cespedes had higher trade value than Miller.

 

I'm still happy we have ERod.

[moonslav59]

E Rod is still young and is capable of becoming next Porcello. It we don't sign Encarnacion, I hope we go after Chapman.

 

The next minute, Kimbrel would demand a trade.

[a700hitter]

True, but Cespedes had higher trade value than Miller.

 

I'm still happy we have ERod.

I would be much happier with Fullmer.

[moonslav59]

Moon thinks we have $30M to spend....I think it's closer to $40M

 

I could be wrong, but show me where I am...

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.)

 

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both)

 

Let's assume we say no and then count them as off-season options:

Updated TOTAL: $124.65M

 

Arbs (9 players):

Bogaerts:$650K > ~$5.5M (1st of 3)

Bradley: $546K > ~$3.2M (1 of 4)

Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.5M (2 of 3)

J Kelly: $2.6M>$2.7M (2 of 3 arbs)

Ross: $1.25M> $1.7M (2 of 3)

Holt: $606K > $1.1M (1 of 3)

Leon: $minor > $1.1K (1 of 3)

Rutledge: $minor> $850K (1 of 3)

Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

TOTAL ARBS: ~$20.35M

 

TOTAL of 16 players: ~$145M (without Buch and Hanigan)

 

The 24 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Holaday, Moncada

TOTAL: ~$13M

 

Grand Total: $158M (No Buch/Hanigan)

 

Now, add the $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is...

 

TOTAL $170M

 

That leaves us with about $19M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M.

 

That would mean we'll have between $30M and $40M, but if we keep Buch and/or Hanigan it will be less.

 

That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need 2-3 quality RP'ers and maybe a SP'er. If we don't try to spend big to replace Papi, we will probably sign an aging vet to 1-2 year deal who plays corner IF and/or LF (Beltran?).

[moonslav59]

I would be much happier with Fullmer.

 

Me too, but I'd rather have Cespedes than Miller too.

[moonslav59]

Moon thinks we have $30M to spend....I think it's closer to $40M (Ortiz, Koji, Hanigan, Tazawa plus increase in luxury tax). As Moon pointed out, it's getting locked into say Encarnacion for several years that may pose problems in couple of years when our B boys become free agent.

 

I just don't see how we can ignore the fact that Ortiz' contribution to this year's team was unbelievable and we do nothing to address it other than to say we'll mitigate it by getting larger contribution from other eight players. It will be tough for Betts as an example to duplicate this season. He can but he may not. What if Pedey gets hurt?

 

We may end up DFA'ing Pablo and making him our new Castillo/Craig. His salary wouldn't count on the luxury tax, but Henry would still be paying that instead of a tax.

[Bellhorn04]

There is a possible thrifty solution to the 2017 DH situation of course:

 

Hanley DH

Shaw/Travis 1B

Moncada 3B

[a700hitter]

There is a possible thrifty solution to the 2017 DH situation of course:

 

Hanley DH

Shaw/Travis 1B

Moncada 3B

You are really a very boring guy.

[Bellhorn04]

You are really a very boring guy.

 

And you can be very grumpy, so there.

[Kimmi]

I think we all can agree that RP are hit or miss a lot of the time. By definition, RP are lesser talents than SP otherwise they would be SP where they can make tons more money.

 

So this is why the throw a ton of s*** at the wall and see what sticks method can work. It's a numbers game.

 

Sometimes you get lucky and sometime you sign duds. I don't remember how Badenhop was acquired. He seems to be a decent example of what you can get. He pitched well and the Sox for some reason said bye-bye.

 

Identifying guys like Badenhop is key to building a good staff. But there seems to be a randomness to it.

 

I good pen can cover a lot of ills on a team.

 

As many people have said, a good pen can make the manager look a lot better.

 

I agree with your post 100%.

[a700hitter]

And you can be very grumpy, so there.

I am.

[Kimmi]

We may have been a little premature with all the oohing and ahhing about getting ERod for Miller.

 

It was tough to part with Miller, but that trade has to be every single time. ERod is still very young, and he has been struggling with injuries this year. I think we may still yet be oohing and ahhing over him.

[Spudboy]

As many people have said, a good pen can make the manager look a lot better.

 

I agree with your post 100%.

 

You've made me smile.

[Spudboy]

It was tough to part with Miller, but that trade has to be every single time. ERod is still very young, and he has been struggling with injuries this year. I think we may still yet be oohing and ahhing over him.

 

Yup. That trade seemed pretty good at the time.

 

It could have been made much better if the Sox had stepped up and signed miller back.

 

It would have been a big contract for a reliever but with regard to what we see now it is not so bad. Plus we could have had one of the most consistently dominant relievers back on our staff.

[Kimmi]

Moon thinks we have $30M to spend....I think it's closer to $40M (Ortiz, Koji, Hanigan, Tazawa plus increase in luxury tax). As Moon pointed out, it's getting locked into say Encarnacion for several years that may pose problems in couple of years when our B boys become free agent.

 

I just don't see how we can ignore the fact that Ortiz' contribution to this year's team was unbelievable and we do nothing to address it other than to say we'll mitigate it by getting larger contribution from other eight players. It will be tough for Betts as an example to duplicate this season. He can but he may not. What if Pedey gets hurt?

 

I would love to have Encarnacion, but I think it would be a big mistake to sign him to a large contract.

 

No one can replace Papi, not only in terms of his production, but also in terms of what he means to this team and to the young players. IMO, the Sox should not be trying to replace him, but rather trying to upgrade the team wherever they reasonably can.

 

Our offense has currently scored 84 more runs than the next closest AL team. Even with a net loss in production from losing Papi, the offense should be one of the best next season.

[moonslav59]

There is a possible thrifty solution to the 2017 DH situation of course:

 

Hanley DH

Shaw/Travis 1B

Moncada 3B

 

Shaw has the best UZR/150 at 1B over the last 2 years combined. That may make up for some of the projected lower-than-norm production at 1B.

 

Travis may be a help later in the year, but I still have not given up hope on Pablo contributing at 3B/1B/DH next year, particularly vs RHPs. We could also see Swihart at 1B/DH.

 

I'm counting on Young to be our DH vs LHPs next year, unless another OF'er is hurt or getting an off day. He is one of MLB's very best hitters vs lefties over the last 2 years combined.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Yup. That trade seemed pretty good at the time.

 

It could have been made much better if the Sox had stepped up and signed miller back.

 

It would have been a big contract for a reliever but with regard to what we see now it is not so bad. Plus we could have had one of the most consistently dominant relievers back on our staff.

 

It is a lot to pay a RP'er, but we trade 4 prospects for the right to pay Kimbrel more per year than Miller got.

[Nick]

C Sandy 1B Hanley 2B Pedey SS Xander 3B Moncada DH Ortiz LF Benintendi CF Bradley Jr RF Betts Vazquez, Shaw, Holt, Young and Hill

Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, Rodriquez

Buchholtz, Kimbrel, Koji, Ziegler, Kelly, Ross, Abad

 

This is my playoff roster...Wright I think is done for the year.

[moonslav59]

C Sandy 1B Hanley 2B Pedey SS Xander 3B Moncada DH Ortiz LF Benintendi CF Bradley Jr RF Betts Vazquez, Shaw, Holt, Young and Hill

Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, Rodriquez

Buchholtz, Kimbrel, Koji, Ziegler, Kelly, Ross, Abad

 

This is my playoff roster...Wright I think is done for the year.

 

Yeah, Looks like the shoulder is worse than they thought.

 

What a bummer. A needless bummer!

[moonslav59]

Nice to see us start this west coast trip with two explosive wins.

 

Let's not piss it away with a 2-1 loss.

 

Only 4 teams in MLB have less losses than us (Cubs, Rangers, Guardians & Nats).

 

No division in MLB has 4 teams over .500, except the AL East. No division has 3 teams over .520, except the AL East ( 3 over .548). No division has two teams over .541, except the AL East with Boston and Toronto at .563.

 

So, when you figure we are tied for the 5th best record in MLB while playing in the toughest division in MLB, I'd say we have done pretty good this year and have a good shot at not just making the playoffs, but advancing far once in.

 

[moonslav59]

C Sandy 1B Hanley 2B Pedey SS Xander 3B Moncada DH Ortiz LF Benintendi CF Bradley Jr RF Betts

Vazquez, Shaw, Holt, Young and Hill

Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, Rodriquez

Buchholtz, Kimbrel, Koji, Ziegler, Kelly, Ross, Abad

 

This is my playoff roster...Wright I think is done for the year.

 

If Koji is not ready, do you go with Barnes?

 

Does Robby Scott have an outside chance to win his way onto a playoff series roster?

 

Who else is there? Tazawa, Hembree, Elias or N Ramirez?

 

I'm still holding out hope for Wright to get healthy.

 

 

What if Beni is not ready? I hope we don't get stuck with Brentz.

Edited September 4, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

After a couple big games, our players' OPS have shot through the roof.

 

1.035 Ortiz

.988 Leon

.929 Moncada

.919 Betts

.851 Bradley

.850 Benintendi

.845 Pedroia

.834 Ramirez

.818 Young

.817 Bogaerts

.780 Hernandez

.759 Shaw

.713 Holt

.708 Hill

 

.733 Rutledge

.720 Swihart

.690 Brentz

.582 Vazquez

.474 Hanigan

.339 Holaday

 

 

Some tiny sample sizes, but 10 guys over .800 is pretty awesome!

 

13 guys over .733 is pretty nice too.

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

After a couple big games, our players' OPS have shot through the roof.

 

1.035 Ortiz

.988 Leon

.929 Moncada

.919 Betts

.851 Bradley

.850 Benintendi

.845 Pedroia

.834 Ramirez

.818 Young

.817 Bogaerts

.780 Hernandez

.759 Shaw

.713 Holt

.708 Hill

 

.733 Rutledge

.720 Swihart

.690 Brentz

.582 Vazquez

.474 Hanigan

.339 Holaday

 

 

Some tiny sample sizes, but 10 guys over .800 is pretty awesome!

 

13 guys over .733 is pretty nice too.

 

 

 

 

 

What do you attribute these outstanding numbers to? Just great players? Fenway Park? A great hitting coach? A lineup stacked top to bottom? The grind down approach we use? All of the above?

 

Over .900 OPS is considered outstanding.