A Realistic View at 2016

[mvp 78]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P&type=6&gds=&gde=&season=2016

 

He has seemed to have changed his approach since coming here. Maybe they needed to trade for Derek Norris too?

[moonslav59]

We needed a middle to back of the rotation guy, and that is what we got. Time will tell if he can maintain a 3.50 ERA. His high strike out ratio is helpful in keeping an ERA low.

 

I hope so, but I hated the trade then and I hate it the same now.

 

Here's how I see it:

 

Upside A - Pomeranz pitches like a 2/3 slot pitcher he was for 15 games in SD. If that is going to be the "real Pomeranz", it means we may not have to acquire a 1/2 slot pitcher this winter, and we can save the money or larger package of prospects that would have been needed to get one. This will allow us to go all out for 2 excellent RP'ers and a mighty middle-order bat. Even if he pitches like a solid #3 starter in 2017, the move could work out okay or well for 2 years.

 

Upside B- Pomeranz becomes a solid 3/4 SP'er that gives us 5-6 IP of 4.00-4.50 ERA for the remainder of his relatively low cost contract.

 

Downside A- Pomeranz pitches like a 2/3 slot pitcher he was for 15 games in SD, we believe this is the "real Pomeranz", we don't acquire a 1/2 slot pitcher this winter, and we suck next year, because Pomeranz is really a number 4.

 

Downside B- Pomeranz continues to struggle the rest of this year, we realize we made a mistake, and we end up losing Espi plus the larger package needed to acquire a true 1/2 this coming winter.

 

I think upside A is the most likely result.

 

[Station 13]

Pomeranz has done fine. It's better than watching Clay blows up everytime in the 1st inning. He is their 5th missing starter all year. Joe Kelly, Clay Buchholz, Henry Owens are not worthy.

[a700hitter]

I hope so, but I hated the trade then and I hate it the same now.

 

Here's how I see it:

 

Upside A - Pomeranz pitches like a 2/3 slot pitcher he was for 15 games in SD. If that is going to be the "real Pomeranz", it means we may not have to acquire a 1/2 slot pitcher this winter, and we can save the money or larger package of prospects that would have been needed to get one. This will allow us to go all out for 2 excellent RP'ers and a mighty middle-order bat. Even if he pitches like a solid #3 starter in 2017, the move could work out okay or well for 2 years.

 

Upside B- Pomeranz becomes a solid 3/4 SP'er that gives us 5-6 IP of 4.00-4.50 ERA for the remainder of his relatively low cost contract.

 

Downside A- Pomeranz pitches like a 2/3 slot pitcher he was for 15 games in SD, we believe this is the "real Pomeranz", we don't acquire a 1/2 slot pitcher this winter, and we suck next year, because Pomeranz is really a number 4.

 

Downside B- Pomeranz continues to struggle the rest of this year, we realize we made a mistake, and we end up losing Espi plus the larger package needed to acquire a true 1/2 this coming winter.

 

I think upside A is the most likely result.

 

upside-- Espinoza is 5 years away and may not make it at all or he could be traded again while in the minors. Another possibility is that he was a pump and dump. Our pitching prospects are usually overblown.

 

DD does have a good track record in making trades. Last year he traded 2 months of Cespedes for Fullmer.

[Nick]

I hate the excuses always given for pitcher. I'm going to scream next time someone says Tazawa is overworked. If that's the case, put him on freaking DL for tired arm every other 15 days and have someone else pitch. Obviously they can't handle the load.

 

I hate that we have so many whimps on the roster. They are either physically not tough or mentally soft....this is the Sox culture and Showwalter is laughing every minute.

 

This team is SOFT.

[Nick]

Moon can you start a 2017 View? Lets talk about how we go about putting together a team for next year....Post Ortiz...

[mvp 78]

Moon can you start a 2017 View? Lets talk about how we go about putting together a team for next year....Post Ortiz...

 

Can we wait until November?

[cp176]

I hate the excuses always given for pitcher. I'm going to scream next time someone says Tazawa is overworked. If that's the case, put him on freaking DL for tired arm every other 15 days and have someone else pitch. Obviously they can't handle the load.

 

I hate that we have so many whimps on the roster. They are either physically not tough or mentally soft....this is the Sox culture and Showwalter is laughing every minute.

 

This team is SOFT.

 

They are soft. Their toughest guy is 4'8" tall. They are young and fun to watch but they need a couple of guys who would be willing to pay a fine and not say I'm sorry for running over somebody. Also one pitcher who no one wants to face.

[moonslav59]

Here's an easier look breakdown of remaining games:

v= versus at home

@= away

 

Boston (19 Home/ 28 Away)

10 TB (3 v TB/ 7 @ TB)

9 BAL (3 v BAL/ 6 @BAL)

7 NYY (4 v NYY/ 3 @ NYY)

6 TOT (3 v TOR/ 3 @ TOR

4 @ DET

3 v KCR

3 v AZ

3 @ OAK

3 @ SDP

1 @ CLE

 

Toronto (22 Home/ 25 Away)

10 NYY (4 v NYY/ 6 @ NYY)

6 BAL (3 v BAL/ 3 @ BAL)

6 BOS (3 v BOS/ 3 @ BOS)

6 TBR (3 v TBR/ 3 @ TBR)

7 LAA (3 v LAA/ 4 @ LAA)

3 v HOU

3 v MN

3 @ CLE

3 @ SEA

 

Baltimore (25 Home/ 23 Away)

9 BOS (6 v BOS/ 3 @ BOS)

9 NYY (3 v NYY/ 6 @ NYY)

7 TBR (4 v TBR/ 3 @ TBR)

6 TOR ( 3 v TOR/ 3 @ TOR)

4 v HOU

4 WSH (2 v WSH/ 2 @ WSH)

3 v AZ

3 @ SFG

3 @ DET

 

Detroit (27 Home/ 21 Away)

10 MN (4H/ 6A)

9 KCR (6H/ 3A)

7 CLE (4H/ 3A)

6 CWS (3H/ 3A)

4 v BOS

3 v LAA

3 v BAL

3 @ TEX

3@ ATL

 

Seattle (22H/ 27A)

10 OAK (4H/ 6A)

10 LAA (3H/ 7A)

7 TEX (3H/ 4A)

6 HOU (3H/ 3A)

4 @ CWS

3 v MIL

3 V NYY

3 v TOR

3 @ MN

 

Houston is still in it, and they are pretty hot right now, but I doubt they make it.

[moonslav59]

upside-- Espinoza is 5 years away and may not make it at all or he could be traded again while in the minors. Another possibility is that he was a pump and dump. Our pitching prospects are usually overblown.

 

DD does have a good track record in making trades. Last year he traded 2 months of Cespedes for Fullmer.

 

I realize the risk, but I'm going to be a Sox fan much longer than 5 years.

 

The point about our past pitching prospects not doing well has nothing to do with Espinoza.

 

We haven't had a pitching prospect ranked this highly since long before this management group.

 

Yes, Espi is young. Yes, he may fail. Yes, he may become much greater than anything Pompom can give us, and his team control will be much more than 2.4 years.

[moonslav59]

Moon can you start a 2017 View? Lets talk about how we go about putting together a team for next year....Post Ortiz...

 

I'll wait until we are out of it or win a championship.

 

Besides, much of this thread is devoted to next year and beyond.

 

Simple outlook:

 

We'll have about $30M to spend.

 

We have 4 holes to fill (some may be filled from within):

SP1/2

RP/2

RP3

Corner IF/DH

 

We lose Papi and probably gain full seasons from Beni & Moncada, which makes us much younger.

 

Uehara, Tazawa, Hill, Buch and Hanigan will likely not be back next year.

 

We should compete but are not close to being favorites unless the changes made are grand.

[a700hitter]

I realize the risk, but I'm going to be a Sox fan much longer than 5 years.

Let's hope so, but in the words of the great Vin Scully, "we are all day to day. Secondly, if we win another championship or two before Espinoza makes it to the big leagues, it doesn't matter to me if he becomes President.

The point about our past pitching prospects not doing well has nothing to do with Espinoza.

 

We haven't had a pitching prospect ranked this highly since long before this management group.

Casey Kelly was ranked #24 and 31 in back to back years, and not only didn't he achieve stardom, but he never made it for a full season. Espinoza was ranked #19 going into this season. I am not convinced that 5 spots higher guarantees anything.

[moonslav59]

[/b]Let's hope so, but in the words of the great Vin Scully, "we are all day to day.

 

That's a poor way to run a team.

 

Secondly, if we win another championship or two before Espinoza makes it to the big leagues, it doesn't matter to me if he becomes President.

 

I doubt Pompom will be a significant factor in any projected rings.

 

Casey Kelly was ranked #24 and 31 in back to back years, and not only didn't he achieve stardom, but he never made it for a full season. Espinoza was ranked #19 going into this season. I am not convinced that 5 spots higher guarantees anything.

 

Thanks for showing how Espinoza was ranked higher than any Sox pitcher acquired under Henry's tenure.

 

Note: Espinoza was ranked #15 by BA's mid-season rankings. While Kelly's ranking was at a more advanced stage and projected to be "less risky", his upside potential never approached Espi's.

 

Look, I recognize the high risk involved with Espi's projection. I'm not calling anyone who liked the trade or DD an idiot. I understand why they made the trade. I'm just voicing my opinion on the trade.

 

[harmony]

I realize the risk, but I'm going to be a Sox fan much longer than 5 years.

 

The point about our past pitching prospects not doing well has nothing to do with Espinoza.

 

We haven't had a pitching prospect ranked this highly since long before this management group.

 

Yes, Espi is young. Yes, he may fail. Yes, he may become much greater than anything Pompom can give us, and his team control will be much more than 2.4 years.

For what it's worth, Clay Buchholz was Baseball America's fourth-ranked prospect entering the 2008 season:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265655.html

[a700hitter]

That's a poor way to run a team.

I didn't say that a team should be run a day to day basis. I was commenting on your remark that you will still be a fan in 5 years. If you want to talk about the way to run a team, I don't think any team should run it's operations based on whether Moon will still be a fan 1 year or 5 years from today.;)

 

I doubt Pompom will be a significant factor in any projected rings.

At the end of October 2004, lots of Sox fans were hoping that Derek Lowe would not get a start in the post season, so we really don't know what part Pom will play.

 

Thanks for showing how Espinoza was ranked higher than any Sox pitcher acquired under Henry's tenure.

You are welcome, and he may also be the most overblown prospect in their tenure which is why they were willing to part with him..

Note: Espinoza was ranked #15 by BA's mid-season rankings. While Kelly's ranking was at a more advanced stage and projected to be "less risky", his upside potential never approached Espi's.

Espi's age is certainly factored into the ranking, because if he were 20 or 21 and pitching to a 4+ ERA in A Ball, he wouldn't crack the top 100.

Look, I recognize the high risk involved with Espi's projection. I'm not calling anyone who liked the trade or DD an idiot. I understand why they made the trade. I'm just voicing my opinion on the trade.

 

I get it, and you have stated it enough that we all know it. But every bad Pom start doesn't equate with Espi becoming a star.

[Slasher9]

For what it's worth, Clay Buchholz was Baseball America's fourth-ranked prospect entering the 2008 season:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265655.html

 

what does that mean?

[Slasher9]

But every bad Pom start doesn't equate with Espi becoming a star.

 

no, but every bad start equates with the trade not being worth it. every bad start equates with some of us wishing this trade never happened.

the flip side would be that every great start would make us forget all about Espinoza. i really wish we had the flip side. but we dont. thanks DD.

[S5Dewey]

[/b]Let's hope so, but in the words of the great Vin Scully, "we are all day to day.

 

I'm going to miss Vin Scully.

 

Hell, I already miss Vin Scully! I hate his being on the west coast where I have to stay up late to listen to him. IMHO the greatest ever. My absolute greatest baseball fantasy would be to make a month-long road trip from coast to coast visiting as many parks as possible with Vin Scully riding shotgun. I'd just sit there and listen to him.

[a700hitter]

no, but every bad start equates with the trade not being worth it. every bad start equates with some of us wishing this trade never happened.

the flip side would be that every great start would make us forget all about Espinoza. i really wish we had the flip side. but we dont. thanks DD.

Wednesday wasn't one of those starts. I would have liked for him to go deeper in the game, but 5 1/3 with 1 ER is not going to make me wring my hands with regrets.

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, Clay Buchholz was Baseball America's fourth-ranked prospect entering the 2008 season:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265655.html

 

Yes, you're right. I stand corrected.

 

I thought of Buch, but was thinking he was drafted before Theo, but he was drafted in 2005.

 

My main point was about the upside potential of Espinoza. I'm not discounting the downside and the risk, but how many pitchers Espi's age make it to the 15th ranking?

 

It's obvious his ceiling is sky high, otherwise he wouldn't be ranked that highly being so far away from the bigs.

[moonslav59]

I get it, and you have stated it enough that we all know it. But every bad Pom start doesn't equate with Espi becoming a star.

 

I didn't mean to imply it did, and I try really hard to not use small sample sizes to judge anybody or any trade. That's why I said I hate the trade "the same now as before". Pom's poor start has not made me hate it any more.

 

It will take many years to fully judge this trade.

[moonslav59]

no, but every bad start equates with the trade not being worth it. every bad start equates with some of us wishing this trade never happened.

the flip side would be that every great start would make us forget all about Espinoza. i really wish we had the flip side. but we dont. thanks DD.

 

The other thought is that when we go trade shopping for a solid SP'er this winter, Espi cannot be included in the package.

 

I was never against trading Espi, although I hoped we could avoid it, but rather my thoughts have always been that if you are going to trade a top prospect (or two or three) then do it for a better pitcher than Pomeranz or a closer making FA near money.

 

It's not like I want to hoard prospects. I actually favored dealing away plenty of them in one or two blockbuster deals and not nickel and diming it.

[moonslav59]

Sean O'Sullivan outrighted to Pawtucket after returning from the 15 day DL.

 

He's no longer on the 40 man roster, and may refuse the assignment, if he wishes.

 

He already accepted an earlier demotion, so he probably will this time too.

 

soxprospects has us with 39 players on the 40 man roster. Here's the Rule 5 eligibility list for this winter. Any chance one of these guys may be added early?

 

Luis Ax. Basabe, Danny Bethea, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Carlos Coste, Allen Craig, Jake Drehoff, Jeff Driskel, Jeffry Fernandez, Pat Goetze, Reed Gragnani, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Angelo LeClerc, Tzu-Wei Lin, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Kyle Martin, Mike McCarthy, Daniel McGrath, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Yankory Pimentel, Tim Roberson, Javier Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Robby Scott, Teddy Stankiewicz, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Jantzen Witte, Luis Ysla

 

 

I don't see any.

 

Will we pick someone else up or add a player in the system not on the above list?

[moonslav59]

Aaron Hill gets the nod tonight versus the lefty starter.

 

I'm not writing Hill off over just 66 PAs of batting .217 (.588 OPS). He's done better vs LHPs (which is why we got him) at .286 (.762 OPS).

 

I've always been higher on Marco Hernandez than many others, and although he bats left-handed, he has been 4 for 7 with a BB in 8 PAs. (He's at ,734 OPS vs LHP at AAA this year.) His ML numbers this year are .295 (754 OPS) in 49 PAs with the Sox earlier this year before his DL stint. He has an .817 OPS at AAA this year in 203 PAs.

 

I'm not sure he projects to be better than Hill vs LHPs going forward, but I still like Hernandez better. Plus, Hernandez is a pretty good defensive SS as well.

 

He's on fire now. He has a .351 BA the last 10 games

 

 

[moonslav59]

I think we may have our 1baseman. Who would have thought the most solid part of this team would be the corners manned by Shaw and Ramirez?

 

It's still one of the weakest "part of the team".

 

Our OF is better.

 

Our middle IF is better.

 

I'd even say our SP'ing is better.

 

Our pen is worse due to injuries to Carson Smith, Uehara and RP'ers still trying to regain form after injury (Kimbrel, Taz....)

 

We had to go out and trade for Hill, so we could platoon Shaw at 3B. HanRam has had multiple stretches of difficulty, then he has a huge game here or there. Just take away his best 2 games (5 HRs in 2 games), and his numbers would look pretty bad for a 1Bman.

 

Edited August 13, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I remember the old days where the Sox used to win 15-5 then lose 3-2 and 4-3.

 

I've been having flashbacks with this team...

 

Since July 21st:

 

Outscored the Twins 31-22 (W2-L2)

Scored 13 runs in 3 games vs DET, but lost 2 games when allowing 4 runs.

Outscored the Angels 14-12 (W2-L2)

Lost 2 out of 4 to Seattle (one by 1/one by 2)- but did win two by 1 rin as well.

Outscored the Dodgers 14-11 but lost 2 out of 3 games.

Lost 2 of 3 to the rebuilding Yanks, including the last game 4-3 then score 8 runs in the first two innings the next day and win 9-4.

 

Earlier in the year, it seemed we did this to our OPS. Maybe we were lucky and luck is "catching up", but we need to start winning the close games more often.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Updated team leaders in OPS:

 

1.040 Leon (still is not really letting up after 130+ PAs)

 

1.026 Ortiz (While not his best career OPS anymore, still 3rd best)

 

.894 Betts (If he could just learn to hit in April/May)

 

.872 JBJ (has been solid for a full 365 days now.

 

.846 Young (we need this guys bat vs lefties)

 

.830 Bogey (has slipped some)

 

.813 Pedey (having his best year in a long time)

 

.801 HanRam (2 big games have vaulted him to here)

 

.777 Benintendi (looking of that first HR)

 

.770 Shaw (has been in pretty steady decline due to poor splits)

 

.754 Hernandez (is doing very well in AAA)

.733 Rutledge (too bad he got hurt)

.720 Swihart (lost year)

.701 Holt (once again, falling off a cliff late season)

.690 Brentz (told you guys he was AAAA)

.613 Hill (not what we hoped for but better vs LHPs)

.583 Vazquez (not sure 176 PAs was enough time)

.437 Hanigan (talk about cliffs and falling)

 

Last 365 days:

1.041 Ortiz

.939 Leon

.911 Betts

.890 JBJ

.838 Swihart

.831 Bogey

.824 Pedey

.785 Shaw

.768 HanRam

.714 Holt

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Updated team leaders in OPS:

 

.813 Pedey (having his best year in a long time)

 

 

It might seem that way, but his OPS+ is virtually identical to what it was in 2012, 2013 and 2015.

[moonslav59]

It might seem that way, but his OPS+ is virtually identical to what it was in 2012, 2013 and 2015.

 

I guess staying healthy makes a difference, but you are right about OPS+.

 

His UZR/150 is his second best since 2011.

 

He's hitting the ball harder: LD% is 23.8 (career 20.7). His hard hits are up (32.5 to 28.9%), so his 10 point higher BAbip is justifiable.

 

[oldtimer]

It's still one of the weakest "part of the team".

 

Our OF is better.

 

Our middle IF is better.

 

I'd even say our SP'ing is better.

 

Our pen is worse due to injuries to Carson Smith, Uehara and RP'ers still trying to regain form after injury (Kimbrel, Taz....)

 

We had to go out and trade for Hill, so we could platoon Shaw at 3B. HanRam has had multiple stretches of difficulty, then he has a huge game here or there. Just take away his best 2 games (5 HRs in 2 games), and his numbers would look pretty bad for a 1Bman.

 

 

Hanley's hitting has been an enigma. As you say, he goes off here and there but in between looks weak and turns into a rally killer. What is the difference when he hit? Is it a weak opponent pitcher? Is it that he gets angry or focused? His body of work hasn't been very good for a first baseman and is likely to get worse as he ages. When you pay a guy $22 million a year, you should expect a very effective hitter and decent field player. We have gotten better play at first then his experiment in the outfield but his hitting remains in question.