A Realistic View at 2016

[FredLynn]

I actually retain some hope with Owens.

 

Owens has neither control of location nor even passable velocity. Without one or the other he is toast.

[Bellhorn04]

Now that's just not true. You're looking at a past era with the mindset of the current one. Offenses were much more powerful in 2007, that was roughly the era where the quality start was invented and an ERA of 4.5 was acceptable for the most part. No one had a problem with Wakefield or daisuke finishing with the numbers they had, except that Daisuke had initially been trending much higher than he wound up finishing with. And at the time Schilling's 3.87 ERA over 150 IP was good for an ERA+ of 121, which it wouldn't get close to today.

 

I don't disagree with any of that. What I'm mainly saying is that at first glance the numbers look like crap. I think what it shows is that sometimes you really have to dig a little deeper into the numbers.

 

We had an outstanding bullpen that year as well.

[Maxbialystock]

Owens has neither control of location nor even passable velocity. Without one or the other he is toast.

 

Not a big fan of velocity. I think location and variety are more important. Bumgarner almost shut us down and didn't throw anything faster than 89 mph.

[Dojji]

We had an outstanding closer. The bullpen was a matter of mixed triumph and despair all year. We'd just get one or two guys going and someone else would get hammered. Oki was great for most of the year but fell apart. MDC was up and down. The Gagne experiment was an utter failure. I still think Mike Timlin's improbable second half run was responsible for far more of our bullpen success than gets remembered.

[Dojji]

Owens has neither control of location nor even passable velocity. Without one or the other he is toast.

 

And then there's Wright who throws a pitch that can't be located and doesn't go over 75mph, and is completely unhittable. It's fine to speak in broad generalities, but be mindful of the exceptions.

[Maxbialystock]

This season, which is what this thread is presumably about, has its own allure. Can anyone remember the last time when four of the top ten AL players--measured by WAR--were Red Sox and that #1 was/is Bogaerts? The other three are Ortiz, Betts, and JBJ. Two more, Pedroia and Shaw, are in the top 20.

 

The Sox also have one pitcher, Wright, in the top ten, but after that #51 and #60 are Porcello and Kimbrell, then Tazawa at #80.

[moonslav59]

And then there's Wright who throws a pitch that can't be located and doesn't go over 75mph, and is completely unhittable. It's fine to speak in broad generalities, but be mindful of the exceptions.

 

Uehara is another example of success without velocity, but his control is off the charts excellent.

[a700hitter]

Uehara is another example of success without velocity, but his control is off the charts excellent.

It is just not control -- there has to be tremendous deception too. I am not sure if it is that they pick up the ball late or there is a lot of movement or both. I have seen many hitters late on his 86 mph fastballs.

[moonslav59]

This season, which is what this thread is presumably about, has its own allure. Can anyone remember the last time when four of the top ten AL players--measured by WAR--were Red Sox and that #1 was/is Bogaerts? The other three are Ortiz, Betts, and JBJ. Two more, Pedroia and Shaw, are in the top 20.

 

The Sox also have one pitcher, Wright, in the top ten, but after that #51 and #60 are Porcello and Kimbrell, then Tazawa at #80.

 

From 2004 to 2009, the American League OPS never strayed from a .755 to .776 range. Since 2009, we have seen the AL OPS dip to .706 in 2014, and basically stay within a tight range between .730 and .736 every other year.

 

It is amazing how our 2016 team OPS of .839 ranks number 1 since 2004 (tied with the 2009 Yankees). The 2004 Red Sox are 3rd at .832, the 2005 Sox are 7th (.811) and the 2011 Sox are 10th at .810. The 2007 Sox placed 13th, 2009 14th and 2008 were 15th.

 

To add to your point about individual Sox rankings, here's a look at the AL OPS leaaders:

 

1.149 Ortiz

(He's having his best career OPS season and is over 180 points ahead of the number 2 guy- JBJ)

 

.972 Bradley

(What an amazing story. Even among those of us who always believed he could hit, this season has been shockingly great!)

 

.969 Altuve

.955 Machado

.947 Trumbo

.947 Trout

.935 Cano

.928 Hosmer

.917 VMart

.909 Saunders

.908 Cruz

.906 Bogey (12th in the AL!)

20) .870 Betts

(I'm pretty confide3nt he ends up over .900.)

21) .868 Pedrois

(Having the season we have hoped for over several recent seasons)

31) .805 Mike Napoli (Just had to throw him in here)

33) .802 Shaw

(Still holding above .800 after over a third of the season has passed.)

 

In summary, besides having the two best AL OPS guys on the same team, the Sox also have 3 of the top 12, 5 of the top 21 and 6 of the top 33 OPS guys in the AL!

 

WOW!

[Maxbialystock]

Shaw is batting 8th today against a righty with Young moved up to 7th. I think HanRam is one hole in the lineup and of course whoever is catching. Shaw might be.

[moonslav59]

Over the last 365 days, the Sox place here in AL OPS (400+ PAs):

1) Ortiz 1.090

6) Bradley .919 (Isn't 471 PAs enough to believe?)

14) Betts .901

 

Amazingly the Sox have 3 of the only 14 AL players with an OPS over .900 since this date last year.

 

25) Bogey .836

31) Pedroia .818

37) Shaw .810

87) Holt .682

91) Ramirez .674

 

(Note: if Chris Young was able to continue his .852 OPS from his 318 PAs to 400, he'd have placed 20th.)

[Nick]

Moon

 

We spent great deal of time discussing our OF lineup.....I think Bradley in CF and Betts in RF is working out just fine....just as you predicted...

[moonslav59]

Moon

 

We spent great deal of time discussing our OF lineup.....I think Bradley in CF and Betts in RF is working out just fine....just as you predicted...

 

Remember all the posters thinking our biggest need was a bat?

[Spudboy]

Remember all the posters thinking our biggest need was a bat?

 

I assume that you are referring to BDC posters.

 

Over here, I posted that I was not confident that the outfield bats would be good enough.

 

I was confident that Betts would be about the same as last year with maybe a little sophomore slump and / or slight improvement.

 

I had no idea who would be in left which obviously would lead me to question what kind of hitting we would see. I had no confidence in Castillo at all.

 

Bradley, as much as I have always said that given a sustained chance that he would eventually hit for .250 - 260 BA and be okay, had not proven capable of any consistency at the MLB level.

 

So, yeah, I am pleased with what has happened this years. So far.

[moonslav59]

We certainly had question marks this winter and spring, but with so much depth and flexibility, I was always confident our offense would be more than fine. Even though Sandoval did not work out, Holt struggled and got hurt, Castillo was demoted, Young started out slowly and Swihart lost his starting catcher slot, we never missed a beat.

 

My other main point was that even if we ended up with a "black hole" or two in our line-up, we still looked to be better off than just about every other AL offense with the possible exception of the Blue Jays (pre-season outlook). In other words, the question marks we had were less severe and in less quantity than every other AL team, and we had more options than other teams to fill in, if some of the question marks turned into known failures.

 

Shaw filled in nicely for Sandy.

 

Holt did well, at first, filling in for Castillo.Now, Young looks like de Aza on steroids. Swihart looks to be a nice supporting left fielder when he returns.

 

Vazquez has not hit well so far, but we have easily absorbed his lack of offense as expected. Having Hanigan, Leon and Swihart in reserve is a nice compliment. Having a 3rd catcher (Swihart) playing LF will allow us to PH for Vazquez late in games.

 

I can't think of a Sox team with more flexibility and inter-changeable players since the Papi as near permanent DH era began.

 

We have 3-4 OF'ers who can play Cf well. I'm not sure we ever had that.

 

Shaw can play 1B or 3B. When Holt is healthy, we have a jack-of-all trades. Swihart gives us great flexibility at catcher and OF.

 

Of course, I did not expect this great offensive start, but I was never afraid our offense would flop or be a weakness.

 

It's always been pitching, since we lost Pedro, Schilling, Beckett and Lester. Getting Price was a step in the right direction, and Wright having a great season has enabled us to stay near the top of the league, but I still think we have a clear weakness to deal with at the trading deadline (or before).

[Nick]

Papi has been a surprise for me......I thought he would fade fast but I WAS COMPLETELY OFF BASE.

 

I've never been sold on Holt other than what he is....good utility guy because he can play so many positions. He's not a regular LF....this is where I again feel JF's loyalty will ultimately hurt the team. He will play Holt regardless of hitting slump. He gets so locked in to these players.....

 

Sox should have traded him when his value was peaking last year for a reliable bullpen help.

[moonslav59]

Papi has been a surprise for me......I thought he would fade fast but I WAS COMPLETELY OFF BASE.

 

I've never been sold on Holt other than what he is....good utility guy because he can play so many positions. He's not a regular LF....this is where I again feel JF's loyalty will ultimately hurt the team. He will play Holt regardless of hitting slump. He gets so locked in to these players.....

 

Sox should have traded him when his value was peaking last year for a reliable bullpen help.

 

I've always felt Holt was a bit over-rated. I appreciate his ability to play so many positions, especially on a team with a FT DH. However, he's not really a plus fielder except for maybe LF and 2B.

 

I'm hoping Castillo does well enough to force a Young/Castillo LF and locks Holt out of a FT job.

[moonslav59]

How about the balance of the Sox offense?

 

.841 vs RHPs

.831 vs LHPs

 

.867 Home

.813 Away

 

.851 batting 1st

.868 2nd

.924 3rd

1.040 4th

.699 5th (HanRam .712 from this slot)

.829 6th

.881 7th

.641 8th (Vazquez & Hanigans the main culprits)

.791 9th

 

My guess is we are the only AL team with just one batting slot below .699.

[moonslav59]

Trending Sox hitters by OPS:

 

Last 365/last 28 days

1.073/1.238 Ortiz +135

.968 /1.191 Young +223

.919 /.952 JBJ +33

.892 /1.079 Betts +186

.856 /1.009 Bogey +153

.808 / .890 Pedey +82

.802 /.477 Shaw -325

.777 /.739 Swihart -38

.701 /.351 Rutledge -350

.689 /.000 Holt n/a

.686 /n/a Castillo n/a

.673 /.480 HanRam -193

.595 /.358 Hanigan -237

.576 /.492 Vazquez -84

[bowman]

Water always seeks it's own level. Have a feeling Dom.. is sitting right now just waiting for his chance to pounce on a move. Be assured, he will make a couple of big moves. If you are in a position to contend for post season, run with it. Sometimes holding onto the future never works out. If you really think your team has a shot at the prize, go for it. I hope we can keep things going and shore up some holes. Still early, but right now, we have a lot going for us. We need a solid starter, bullpen ace, and one more bat. I don't trust Hanram....

[moonslav59]

I seriously doubt we get a bat. We have 9 guys with an OPS above .777 over the past 365 days, and HanRam is not one of them. Neither is Holt, Castillo, Vazquez and Rutledge. I think we have enough depth to replace just about any one guy who might get injured or struggle to the point of losing his full time job.

 

We need pitching, and pitching is costly. Getting a solid #2 or 3 starter and a nice set-up guy will cost us dearly. I'm okay with trading some of our future away for the here and now, but getting three pieces may be too much.

[Emp9]

Water always seeks it's own level. Have a feeling Dom.. is sitting right now just waiting for his chance to pounce on a move. Be assured, he will make a couple of big moves. If you are in a position to contend for post season, run with it. Sometimes holding onto the future never works out. If you really think your team has a shot at the prize, go for it. I hope we can keep things going and shore up some holes. Still early, but right now, we have a lot going for us. We need a solid starter, bullpen ace, and one more bat. I don't trust Hanram....

 

I'm more worried about Shaw than Hanram. And holding on to the future has worked out for the most part. Only now it might be time to make a move. I could see the Sox taking on some team's salary dump like say Braun (although I'd prefer less of a commitment like say CarGo), plus some mid-prospects (although mid-tier prospects are very limited in our system). However, I agree with many here that SP & BP are THE priority. Two seasons & two message boards later and I'm still saying it, Sox need to try out Kelly in the BP. Even as a future trade candidate. If Kelly does well enough we could keep him or trade him. If Kelly thrives in a BP role we may not need to trade for another reliever. If he builds enough of a track record, we could deal him next season when Smith comes back ( however unlikely). Actually, I have to wonder if other teams at this moment see Kelly having enough things going for him for them to consider turning him into a reliever on their own time? Stranger things have happened.

 

I don't see Dombrowski dealing that much from our starting 9. XB is untouchable. I think both Betts & JBJ are safe as well due to our lack of OF depth (atleast for the next two years). Swihart & Devers have the most value and are the most expendable. Hernandez. Holt. Kelly as a reliever may have some value. Paying half of Castillo's salary in the right trade may have some value. Again, stranger things have happened.

 

If we can only muster a #3 SP or lower out of a trade, I would definitely look to add a bat for LF. If we happen to trade for a #1 or solid #2, I'd be inclined not to worry about LF.

[mvp 78]

I think fans are worried about LF more than DUMBrowski is.

[moonslav59]

I'm more worried about Shaw than Hanram. And holding on to the future has worked out for the most part. Only now it might be time to make a move. I could see the Sox taking on some team's salary dump like say Braun (although I'd prefer less of a commitment like say CarGo), plus some mid-prospects (although mid-tier prospects are very limited in our system).

 

CarGo is toast! I'd only take Braun, if the Brewers agreed to take Pablo or Castillo (with prospects).

 

However, I agree with many here that SP & BP are THE priority. Two seasons & two message boards later and I'm still saying it, Sox need to try out Kelly in the BP.

I thought the pen was Kelly's best spot since last summer. No disagreement here.

 

Even as a future trade candidate. If Kelly does well enough we could keep him or trade him. If Kelly thrives in a BP role we may not need to trade for another reliever. If he builds enough of a track record, we could deal him next season when Smith comes back ( however unlikely). Actually, I have to wonder if other teams at this moment see Kelly having enough things going for him for them to consider turning him into a reliever on their own time? Stranger things have happened.

 

If Kelly does well in the pen, we'll need him there next year as Uehara and Tazawa will be FAs

 

I don't see Dombrowski dealing that much from our starting 9. XB is untouchable. I think both Betts & JBJ are safe as well due to our lack of OF depth (atleast for the next two years). Swihart & Devers have the most value and are the most expendable. Hernandez. Holt. Kelly as a reliever may have some value. Paying half of Castillo's salary in the right trade may have some value. Again, stranger things have happened.

 

I think we have more than decent OF depth. Young is playing like a monster. Swihart looks fine in LF. We'll have Holt coming back at some point, and maybe Castillo will surprise us. All of our starting OF'ers can play CF, so I think we are more than fine until Benintendi is ready, which could be much sooner than 2 years. We may also see Moncada switched to the OF, if a need at 3B evaporates. I share your deep concern with Shaw and always have. I know I'm a stickler for large sample sizes, so I have been slow jumping on the Travis Shaw bandwagon, even though he was my "sleeper prospect pick" many years ago.

 

If we can only muster a #3 SP or lower out of a trade, I would definitely look to add a bat for LF. If we happen to trade for a #1 or solid #2, I'd be in.lined not to worry about LF.

 

I seriously doubt trading for an OF'er is a high priority, but we did get de Aza for very cheap last year, so maybe that type of deal may be attempted. I do not want us trading for a number 4/5 type starter. They cost too much and almost always add no benefit.

 

I hope we don't look to offense over pitching this summer.

[moonslav59]

I think fans are worried about LF more than DUMBrowski is.

 

Not this fan.

[Emp9]

"

I think we have more than decent OF depth. Young is playing like a monster. Swihart looks fine in LF. We'll have Holt coming back at some point, and maybe Castillo will surprise us. All of our starting OF'ers can play CF, so I think we are more than fine until Benintendi is ready, which could be much sooner than 2 years. We may also see Moncada switched to the OF, if a need at 3B evaporates."

 

I meant not enough depth to give up Betts or JBJ in a trade any time soon. We don't have that much depth to replace either of them this season and next year is questionable as well.

[moonslav59]

"

I think we have more than decent OF depth. Young is playing like a monster. Swihart looks fine in LF. We'll have Holt coming back at some point, and maybe Castillo will surprise us. All of our starting OF'ers can play CF, so I think we are more than fine until Benintendi is ready, which could be much sooner than 2 years. We may also see Moncada switched to the OF, if a need at 3B evaporates."

 

I meant not enough depth to give up Betts or JBJ in a trade any time soon. We don't have that much depth to replace either of them this season and next year is questionable as well.

 

Yes, I agree, but why are you saying we might try to acquire an OF'er?

 

To me, OF, SS and C are our least need areas.

[moonslav59]

Let's look at how the Sox line-up balance compares to other top AL teams:

 

Slot BOS -TEX- BAL- CLE- SEA- TOR- KCR

..1) .849 .752 .704 .715 .673 .762 .618 (Sox are #1)

..2) .873 .843 .915 .756 .775 .879 .774 (#3)

..3) .917 .687 .774 .820 .903 .901 .820 (#1)

..4)1.036 .750 .846 .751 .904 .848 .714 (#1)

..5) .701 .845 .824 .763 .677 .683 .656 (#4)

..6) .836 .690 .802 .621 .900 .819 .713 (#2)

..7) .867 .677 .768 .660 .651 .505 .749 (#1)

..8) .644 .866 .723 .833 .813 .570 .695 (#7)

..9) .777 .632 .644 .647 .628 .697 .760 (#1)

 

Hands down the most balanced team in the AL. Our #5 and 8 slots are our only weak slots, but with JBJ maybe eventually b atting 5th or HanRam heating up the #5 slot could improve. Our #8 slot should also improve as our catchers are now batting 9th not 8th. That may make our #9 slot fall from the #1 ranking, but it is clear we are very balanced top to bottom.

 

Notes:

1) Look at Toronto's bottom 3.

2) Look at BAL, SEA and CLE's #1 slot.

3) Texas has had a weak 3 slot.

4) KCR has 4 of the top 6 slots under .715.

[Emp9]

Yes, I agree, but why are you saying we might try to acquire an OF'er?

 

To me, OF, SS and C are our least need areas.

 

If the Sox are trying to win a WS this year, and fail to upgrade their SP in a meaningful way, I see them looking at a LF upgrade. I suppose 3B (if Shaw continues to struggle) may be an option instead. I have more faith in HanRam than Young, Shaw, Holt, and Castillo combined... Which is a rebutal of what Bowman said.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox are trying to win a WS this year, and fail to upgrade their SP in a meaningful way, I see them looking at a LF upgrade. I suppose 3B (if Shaw continues to struggle) may be an option instead. I have more faith in HanRam than Young, Shaw, Holt, and Castillo combined... Which is a rebutal of what Bowman said.

 

I agree, but I'm okay with a LF comprised of Young, Shaw, Holt, and Castillo as long as the rest of the line-up is doing well.

 

I just can't get passed the void we have at SP'er. We could add Trout in LF, and I still think we'd struggle to win it all without a significant upgrade at SP'er.

 

I realize the playoffs allow teams to get by without a good 5th starter, but beyond Price, Wright and Porcello it's a joke.