A Realistic View at 2016

[mvp 78]

What I am here to say is that, while I think the -.3 is wrong, I do think it suggests that JBJ, despite his enormous talent in the outfield, might not be quite as great as we all think. For one thing, that great arm isn't always accurate.

 

Aren't you the guy complaining about SSS in other posts? I could be wrong.

 

This seems to be the case here since his defensive WAR is well above replacement for 2014 and 2015. Should we expect that he will end the season with 4 errors (which would tie his career total)? I wouldn't expect that.

[mvp 78]

Also, defensive metrics are spotty at best right now.

[Maxbialystock]

Aren't you the guy complaining about SSS in other posts? I could be wrong.

 

This seems to be the case here since his defensive WAR is well above replacement for 2014 and 2015. Should we expect that he will end the season with 4 errors (which would tie his career total)? I wouldn't expect that.

 

I'm not defending the current -.3 rating, but what I am saying is that so far this year, despite his undeniable talent in the field, JBJ has seemed to me to be not as good as last year or the year before. My suspicion, only that, is that his fielding is slacking off commensurate with his success at the plate. To me he is the polar opposite of Bogaerts who, despite his excellent hitting stats, is super conscientious about his fielding at SS. It also helps that Bogaerts knows he ain't the greatest fielding shortstop around. My guess is that JBJ thinks he is God's gift to centerfielding and can rest on his laurels. That is just a guess. I say again, his talent is undeniable. He not only has a great arm, but also a great instinct for where the ball is going. As I recall, the complaints about Ellsbury were that he had weak arm and less than great instincts about where the ball was going, but he was faster than JBJ is and was pretty good at not making errors.

[mvp 78]

My guess is that JBJ thinks he is God's gift to centerfielding and can rest on his laurels.

 

Considering the flak that some people get around here for "psychoanalyzing" Panda and his eating habits, this is an even greater leap in logic.

 

I don't see him thinking that way personally and tend to just think his defense will look better over the long term. At most, maybe it's the case where he needs to spend more time working on his offense and his defense has suffered a little?

[Emp9]

Or it could have been freezing cold out and tough to stay loose? That's my guess.

[Maxbialystock]

Considering the flak that some people get around here for "psychoanalyzing" Panda and his eating habits, this is an even greater leap in logic.

 

I don't see him thinking that way personally and tend to just think his defense will look better over the long term. At most, maybe it's the case where he needs to spend more time working on his offense and his defense has suffered a little?

 

What leap in logic? It's a guess, an impression. To me Bogaerts is super conscientious and JBJ a little sloppy, but there is no doubt in my mind that JBJ has the better tools. You explanation--that he has had to work harder on his hitting--is at least as good as mine. We agree, I think, on the fundamental point: he could do better. We probably agree on another point: we are most fortunate to have him and not Ellsbury. He is one of the reasons, but not the most important (money was), the Sox let Ellsbury go to the Yankees. And, if it was additional work that improved his hitting, I would agree that time was well spent whatever the effect on his fielding. A so-so JBJ is still a very good centerfielder.

[cp176]

What leap in logic? It's a guess, an impression. To me Bogaerts is super conscientious and JBJ a little sloppy, but there is no doubt in my mind that JBJ has the better tools. You explanation--that he has had to work harder on his hitting--is at least as good as mine. We agree, I think, on the fundamental point: he could do better. We probably agree on another point: we are most fortunate to have him and not Ellsbury. He is one of the reasons, but not the most important (money was), the Sox let Ellsbury go to the Yankees. And, if it was additional work that improved his hitting, I would agree that time was well spent whatever the effect on his fielding. A so-so JBJ is still a very good centerfielder.

 

first off - you are absolutely entitled to your opinion. that being said, that is the first time that I have heard anyone suggest that JBJ is anything but a gifted very hard working athlete. Your suggestion that he might be "slacking off" or that he might consider himself to be "God's gift to center fielding" doesn't make much sense to me. No one denies that he has made a couple of mistakes that seem a little unusual for him. My opinion is that it has nothing to do with his work ethic.

[Kimmi]

first off - you are absolutely entitled to your opinion. that being said, that is the first time that I have heard anyone suggest that JBJ is anything but a gifted very hard working athlete. Your suggestion that he might be "slacking off" or that he might consider himself to be "God's gift to center fielding" doesn't make much sense to me. No one denies that he has made a couple of mistakes that seem a little unusual for him. My opinion is that it has nothing to do with his work ethic.

 

On this, we agree 100%. For the past couple of years, I have probably rooted harder for JBJ than for any other Sox player because of what I've read about his work ethic and his desire to succeed. If I'm not mistaken, he's been one of the first to report to ST camp the past couple of years. He is not one who is or who has taken anything for granted.

[Kingface]

first off - you are absolutely entitled to your opinion. that being said, that is the first time that I have heard anyone suggest that JBJ is anything but a gifted very hard working athlete. Your suggestion that he might be "slacking off" or that he might consider himself to be "God's gift to center fielding" doesn't make much sense to me. No one denies that he has made a couple of mistakes that seem a little unusual for him. My opinion is that it has nothing to do with his work ethic.

 

Agree.......I think Max is off his rocker again.....

[Jasonbay44]

I've literally heard nothing but good things about JBJs work ethic and I don't get the vibe that he thinks he is above anyone else. If one of our biggest worries is JBJ's defene this season, ill be very happy.

[moonslav59]

The early-season defensive metrics are interesting:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... but the samples are too small to be meaningful.

 

The people behind the UZR/150 metric specifically state that small sample sizes are not definitive. I believe they say even a season long sample size may not be enough.

[moonslav59]

JBJ is maybe the best fielding CF'er in Red Sox history. I say "maybe" because the sample size is still too small to compare to longtime Sox greats. There's no doubt in my mind, JBJ will go down in Sox history as the best defensive CF'er ever, assuming he doesn't get hurt or traded.

His bat at the major league level has always been the shady area. Anyone who knows me, knows that even a 3 month sample size proves nothing to me, but JBJ's last 3 months have been beyond our wildest expectations. If he keeps this up, he may become the greatest all around CF'er in Sox history.

Note: I'm not predicting this to happen. I'm not setting expectations so high, he's bound to disappoint. I personally think he'll end up around .800 to .825 career.

[devildavid]

JBJ is a great outfielder, maybe the best I have ever seen in a Red Sox uniform. He may be a bit cocky at times, because he is so good. It's nothing a few choice words from the coaching staff can't correct. Or even a few foolish errors can't correct as well. I'm sure he takes great pride in his fielding and doesn't ever want to embarrass himself.

[SoxnCycles]

JBJ is a great outfielder, maybe the best I have ever seen in a Red Sox uniform. He may be a bit cocky at times, because he is so good. It's nothing a few choice words from the coaching staff can't correct. Or even a few foolish errors can't correct as well. I'm sure he takes great pride in his fielding and doesn't ever want to embarrass himself.

 

Yup, I don't think anyone is questioning his work ethic. But, it has looked like a couple of plays were an example of "I got this" and he takes his eye off the ball.

 

Happens to the best of them.

I doubt it even takes a talk from the coaching staff. Just getting a bit embarassed is probably enough.

[sk7326]

The people behind the UZR/150 metric specifically state that small sample sizes are not definitive. I believe they say even a season long sample size may not be enough.

 

Yes. The sample is too small to say anything about a guy's quality - but it is enough to say whether things have gone well or not. It's like how a .300 hitter than go 0 for 10. It doesn't mean the guy is .000 but it is still a rough 10 at-bats.

[Slasher9]

Or it could have been freezing cold out and tough to stay loose? That's my guess.

 

THIS. plus he bulked up a bit from last year.

[mvp 78]

THIS. plus he bulked up a bit from last year.

 

*insert annoying Felger clearing his throat noise*

 

I think JBJ has always had a good hit tool. I think he just tinkered with his swing too much and it took him off his game. He's still very young and not a finished product. The best is yet to come with him.

[Slasher9]

*insert annoying Felger clearing his throat noise*

 

I think JBJ has always had a good hit tool. I think he just tinkered with his swing too much and it took him off his game. He's still very young and not a finished product. The best is yet to come with him.

 

hey MVP. im not sure what your post has to do with mine? but i agree JBj is still rising/learning/honing his craft at the MLB level. IMO confidence has been a large part of JBj's offensive game. seems he is realizing he belongs.....

[mvp 78]

hey MVP. im not sure what your post has to do with mine? but i agree JBj is still rising/learning/honing his craft at the MLB level. IMO confidence has been a large part of JBj's offensive game. seems he is realizing he belongs.....

 

You mentioned that JBJ is bigger. During August of last year, Felger (local radio hack) would make a god awful clearing of his voice noise that insinuated that JBJ's physique wasn't natural. To me, a 25 year old putting on muscle mass isn't a huge revelation.

[Slasher9]

You mentioned that JBJ is bigger. During August of last year, Felger (local radio hack) would make a god awful clearing of his voice noise that insinuated that JBJ's physique wasn't natural. To me, a 25 year old putting on muscle mass isn't a huge revelation.

 

ah. gotcha. i'm not in Boston area so do not know him.

[mvp 78]

ah. gotcha. i'm not in Boston area so do not know him.

 

Consider yourself very lucky, my friend... He is the absolute smarmiest dink you could put on the radio and one of the reasons I barely listen to sports radio anymore.

[SoxnCycles]

Consider yourself very lucky, my friend... He is the absolute smarmiest dink you could put on the radio and one of the reasons I barely listen to sports radio anymore.

 

Amen to that.

[Slasher9]

lol. I'm not sure lucky is the right word though. i could very easily counter your "felger" with a "francesa"

[mvp 78]

lol. I'm not sure lucky is the right word though. i could very easily counter your "felger" with a "francesa"

 

I think Felger is more Mad Dog than Francesa. Isn't Francesa supposed to be a little endearing?

[moonslav59]

I don't see it as an oh for ten stretch on defense. JBJ has been a plus on defense so far this year, but UZR/150 just hasn't captured it yet.

[SoxnCycles]

lol. I'm not sure lucky is the right word though. i could very easily counter your "felger" with a "francesa"

 

Yeah, that's true.

Francesa can be a condecending prick too.

 

Francesa got caught making s*** up about how often Bonds was intentionally walked with bases loaded in his career.

He just couldn't force himself to admit he was wrong. LOL

[Critter]

Moon, thought I'd sent this several days ago. Must have gotten interrupted. Thanks for your frequent defense of JBJ and Wright the last couple of years. They are giving so much satisfaction right now, but when people were dismissive in the past, you took up the gauntlet. I supported them, but you were there on a daily basis. It is so gratifying to see them finding success, even though there will probably be some rough patches sometime. As for Shaw, I think he might be one of those guys you see other teams get, they just blossom at the major league level when not much was expected. That's not the same as Bogie or Mookie or Dustin for example where I think a lot was expected...Critter

[moonslav59]

Moon, thought I'd sent this several days ago. Must have gotten interrupted. Thanks for your frequent defense of JBJ and Wright the last couple of years. They are giving so much satisfaction right now, but when people were dismissive in the past, you took up the gauntlet. I supported them, but you were there on a daily basis. It is so gratifying to see them finding success, even though there will probably be some rough patches sometime. As for Shaw, I think he might be one of those guys you see other teams get, they just blossom at the major league level when not much was expected. That's not the same as Bogie or Mookie or Dustin for example where I think a lot was expected...Critter

 

I've had my share of being wrong the last few years too, but thanks, crit. I was also one of the few posters to defend Porcello and his extension. The jury is still out on him, but he certainly looks better than 2015.

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS leaders (30+ PAs):

 

1.101 Ortiz

1.060 Rutledge

.962 Bradley

.938 Shaw

.893 Bogaerts

.846 Ramirez

.827 Pedroia

.748 Betts

.731 Young

.718 Holt

.679 Vazquez

.523 Hanigan

[moonslav59]

We're not yet at the quarter mark of the season, and here are the RBI Leaders

33 Ortiz

30 JBJ

27 Betts

26 Shaw

23 HanRam

22 Bogey

20 Pedey

19 Holt

 

8 guys on pace for 80+ RBIs/ 4-5 guys on pace to get near 100.