A Realistic View at 2016

[User Name]

Actually I like the current one.

 

I'm messing around with u man, cause I know you don't like when somebody talks bad things about Cherington.

 

I'm not stupid, and I hate Panda. I've said many times I like calling things for what they are. I think some of his mistakes have been overblown, and I also think Hanley and Porcello will end up being good investments.

[iortiz]

I'm not stupid, and I hate Panda. I've said many times I like calling things for what they are. I think some of his mistakes have been overblown, and I also think Hanley and Porcello will end up being good investments.

 

Hanley yes, Porcello I really doubt it, but you already know my opinion. We can make a money bet or a sign bet just for fun, what do you say?

[iortiz]

... Btw, and for the record the Cherington thing was a joke.

[Kingface]

We often live in a bubble in regards to the team we rout for. Holt ALWAYS had a good hit tool when he was coming up in the minors....and kept it going in the Majors. What people didn't expect from him was that he would be an AS. He was projected as a borderline 'solid utility player'. He was an Allstar last year and it DID come out of nowhere.....admit it.....most here were probably a bit shocked. The iron was hot last year. We have seen that Holt plays well....then folds for a long period of time. That should be common knowledge by now. Holt is not in our long term plans. WE have ZERO pitching coming up worthy of a #2 role in the next 3 years. Why not package Holt, Devers and a lower level prospect for a #2?? TEAMS WERE LOOKING AT HOLT!!!!! We didn't need him the last half of last year.....and we NEED a #2 this year more than a utility player.......

[iortiz]

I like the SP idea.

 

But, who is going to give us Holt's production. Castillo? Young?, Castillo/Young?

 

IMO I wouldn't trade Holt. He's arguably the best utility player in baseball. I'd rather explore a trade just like U? suggested early to get that SP... But not a #2, a top tier controlled young pitcher, no matter what it takes.

Edited April 30, 2016 by iortiz

[User Name]

We often live in a bubble in regards to the team we rout for. Holt ALWAYS had a good hit tool when he was coming up in the minors....and kept it going in the Majors. What people didn't expect from him was that he would be an AS. He was projected as a borderline 'solid utility player'. He was an Allstar last year and it DID come out of nowhere.....admit it.....most here were probably a bit shocked. The iron was hot last year. We have seen that Holt plays well....then folds for a long period of time. That should be common knowledge by now. Holt is not in our long term plans. WE have ZERO pitching coming up worthy of a #2 role in the next 3 years. Why not package Holt, Devers and a lower level prospect for a #2?? TEAMS WERE LOOKING AT HOLT!!!!! We didn't need him the last half of last year.....and we NEED a #2 this year more than a utility player.......

 

You're massively overvaluing whtat Holt and Devers would bring back here.

[moonslav59]

I agree. Holt and Devers might get us a decent #3 but not a solid #2.

 

I'm for holding onto Moncada (3B or 1B) and Benintendi (OF) and Espinoza (SP), so it really leaves Swihart.

 

GMs will die to get a catcher these days. They will overpay.

 

I'm fine with including Holt in the package, but I'm not sure any GM values him more than some posters do here.

 

I think a package of ....

 

Swihart

Devers

2 from Owens, Johnson & Kopech

 

gets us a solid #2 or low #1 if we add Holt or sub Kelly for a pitching prospect listed above.

 

Could we get Sale for Kelly, Swihart, Holt, Devers and one from Owens, Johnson or Kopech?

[Emp9]

I agree. Holt and Devers might get us a decent #3 but not a solid #2.

 

I'm for holding onto Moncada (3B or 1B) and Benintendi (OF) and Espinoza (SP), so it really leaves Swihart.

 

GMs will die to get a catcher these days. They will overpay.

 

I'm fine with including Holt in the package, but I'm not sure any GM values him more than some posters do here.

 

I think a package of ....

 

Swihart

Devers

2 from Owens, Johnson & Kopech

 

gets us a solid #2 or low #1 if we add Holt or sub Kelly for a pitching prospect listed above.

 

Could we get Sale for Kelly, Swihart, Holt, Devers and one from Owens, Johnson or Kopech?

 

Unless we pay out the ass again to get a TOTR SP, a trade like this seems inevitable. Not sure how teams view Kopech and his two seasons of suspension and injury (attitude, smarts?), but the talent is there. The main pieces wld of course be Swihart & Devers. Maybe replace Kopech w/ Marco Hernandez? Guerra would've been a nice piece to tip the scales, but thats a whole 'nother can of worms I'd rather leave closed. Either way, I know I've come a long way on how to view Swihart. I feel this team is close to being championship caliber again. If a trade like this puts us over the top and is cost controlled I'd have to pull the trigger. Imagine DD does something like this and in the off-season still goes after Strasburg?? We'd be set for a while.

Edited April 30, 2016 by Emp9

[User Name]

I agree. Holt and Devers might get us a decent #3 but not a solid #2.

 

I'm for holding onto Moncada (3B or 1B) and Benintendi (OF) and Espinoza (SP), so it really leaves Swihart.

 

GMs will die to get a catcher these days. They will overpay.

 

I'm fine with including Holt in the package, but I'm not sure any GM values him more than some posters do here.

 

I think a package of ....

 

Swihart

Devers

2 from Owens, Johnson & Kopech

 

gets us a solid #2 or low #1 if we add Holt or sub Kelly for a pitching prospect listed above.

 

Could we get Sale for Kelly, Swihart, Holt, Devers and one from Owens, Johnson or Kopech?

 

Nope, and Sale isn't going anywhere anyway.

Unless we pay out the ass again to get a TOTR SP, a trade like this seems inevitable. Not sure how teams view Kopech and his two seasons of suspension and injury (attitude, smarts?), but the talent is there. The main pieces wld of course be Swihart & Devers. Maybe replace Kopech w/ Marco Hernandez? Guerra would've been a nice piece to tip the scales, but thats a whole 'nother can of worms I'd rather leave closed. Either way, I know I've come a long way on how to view Swihart. I feel this team is close to being championship caliber again. If a trade like this puts us over the top and is cost controlled I'd have to pull the trigger. Imagine DD does something like this and in the off-season still goes after Strasburg?? We'd be set for a while.

 

Strasburg would be a terrible investment. He's been very inconsistent, has horrible mechanics (inverted W, and so does Sale actually) that have already lead to TJS , and is going to get stupid money/years from someone. The Red Sox would do well to pass on him.

[cp176]

We often live in a bubble in regards to the team we rout for. Holt ALWAYS had a good hit tool when he was coming up in the minors....and kept it going in the Majors. What people didn't expect from him was that he would be an AS. He was projected as a borderline 'solid utility player'. He was an Allstar last year and it DID come out of nowhere.....admit it.....most here were probably a bit shocked. The iron was hot last year. We have seen that Holt plays well....then folds for a long period of time. That should be common knowledge by now. Holt is not in our long term plans. WE have ZERO pitching coming up worthy of a #2 role in the next 3 years. Why not package Holt, Devers and a lower level prospect for a #2?? TEAMS WERE LOOKING AT HOLT!!!!! We didn't need him the last half of last year.....and we NEED a #2 this year more than a utility player.......

 

I love Holt like all us do but I can't come to grips with calling him an All-Star. Technically he was for sure but I'm not sure other franchises see him as All-Star caliber. Somebody had to make the AS team for Boston.

 

With respect to Swihart (let me hear it), I don't think that he is as valuable in a potential trade as others here do. How long is his learning curve behind the plate going to take? Is he really going to be a good enough hitter to warrant a move to lets say left field. Better than Benintendi? I don't think so. Better than Moncada? probably not. He is a trade chip for sure but are other GMs foaming at the mouth to get him? I kind of hope the Sox keep him at this point. If and when he is ready to catch we may have a need for a solid backup who can swing the bat a little.

[User Name]

Yet the first player the Phillies asked for last year in any trade negotiations for Cole Hamels was Blake Swihart, by name. The Sox hung up the phone.

[Dojji]

Holt is an All Star Level starting second baseman. We don't recognize that because we have a guy who if healthy is even better, but at least 18 teams would have Brock Holt starting at second for them. He did very well there when Pedroia got hurt the last couple years, and I think you have to weight his vaule as primarily a second baseman, and as a 2B, Holt is a borderline All-Star, it's a position where his level of offense is enough to allow him to shine.

[User Name]

All-Star level? You're clearly one for hyperbole. Starting level? You betcha.

[moonslav59]

I love Holt like all us do but I can't come to grips with calling him an All-Star. Technically he was for sure but I'm not sure other franchises see him as All-Star caliber. Somebody had to make the AS team for Boston.

 

With respect to Swihart (let me hear it), I don't think that he is as valuable in a potential trade as others here do. How long is his learning curve behind the plate going to take? Is he really going to be a good enough hitter to warrant a move to lets say left field. Better than Benintendi? I don't think so. Better than Moncada? probably not. He is a trade chip for sure but are other GMs foaming at the mouth to get him? I kind of hope the Sox keep him at this point. If and when he is ready to catch we may have a need for a solid backup who can swing the bat a little.

 

Have you seen what some teams have for a catcher right now?

 

1) You have to go down to 40 PAs to get a sample size of 30catchers (1 per team).

2) The mean OPS is .722.

3) Eleven catchers have an OPS of .605 or lower.

4) Seven teams have a catcher with an OPs at .502 or lower

5) Four are at .415 or lower.

6) Whole team catcher OPS is even worse:

#15 .661

#20 .594 (Red Sox)

#26 .466

#29 .406 (Houston)

#30 .392 (TBR)

 

I am convinced some GM would pay dearly for Swihart (or Vazquez).

[Dojji]

All-Star level? You're clearly one for hyperbole. Starting level? You betcha.

 

Above league average offense at 2B combined with very good defense -- if he was playing 2B every day he'd get to the All Star level on positional value.

[User Name]

Above league average offense at 2B combined with very good defense -- if he was playing 2B every day he'd get to the All Star level on positional value.

 

The offensive bar for 2B in the AL is pretty high with Pedroia, Kinsler, Cano et al.

[Jack Flap]

I like the SP idea.

 

But, who is going to give us Holt's production. Castillo? Young?, Castillo/Young?

 

IMO I wouldn't trade Holt. He's arguably the best utility player in baseball. I'd rather explore a trade just like U? suggested early to get that SP... But not a #2, a top tier controlled young pitcher, no matter what it takes.

 

Holt is a career .275/.335/.371, 94 wRC+ hitter. It's not like his offensive production is irreplaceable.

 

I wouldn't hesitate to include him in a trade for a #1/2 SP, but I'm not sure he has that kind of value. In the meantime, I look forward to getting a real starting left fielder in the lineup and putting Holt back in the super-utility role where he is best used.

[User Name]

Holt is a career .275/.335/.371, 94 wRC+ hitter. It's not like his offensive production is irreplaceable.

 

I wouldn't hesitate to include him in a trade for a #1/2 SP, but I'm not sure he has that kind of value. In the meantime, I look forward to getting a real starting left fielder in the lineup and putting Holt back in the super-utility role where he is best used.

 

Dojji says that is All-Star level production at 2B.

[iortiz]

Holt is a career .275/.335/.371, 94 wRC+ hitter. It's not like his offensive production is irreplaceable.

 

I wouldn't hesitate to include him in a trade for a #1/2 SP, but I'm not sure he has that kind of value. In the meantime, I look forward to getting a real starting left fielder in the lineup and putting Holt back in the super-utility role where he is best used.

A couple of things.

 

Who/where/ how are you going to find that real starting left fielder right now? Furthermore how much is he going to cost you?

 

At this point we don't have that kind of production in the OF. For us is not that easy to compensate that kind of production, RIGHT NOW - kind of the point.

 

On the other hand I agree with you, Holt has not enough value to land a SP just by himself.... BUT if he posts this year what he posted last year, it is going to turn interesting.

[iortiz]

... also remember that you already have Castillo in the wings.

[Jack Flap]

Well, I'd have given Castillo more of a chance, but I agree we have a hole to fill in left...Holt is not a terrible short-term solution, but only a short-term solution nonetheless.

 

Personally I'm pulling for Benintendi to be ready to help us by late summer or fall, but in the meantime a lefthanded-hitting outfielder who could actually platoon effectively with Young (someone like De Aza) would be nice.

[Dojji]

I think Benintendi is a bridge too far this year. We're going to need to fill in time for at least this year to get to Benintendi, and in the end math we may wind up needing Benintendi to replace JBJ, who is not off to a great start this year.

 

Not saying it's impossible, I'm saying too much has to go right by Benintendi to be counting on it at this point.

[Palodios]

Holt is a career .275/.335/.371, 94 wRC+ hitter. It's not like his offensive production is irreplaceable.

 

I wouldn't hesitate to include him in a trade for a #1/2 SP, but I'm not sure he has that kind of value. In the meantime, I look forward to getting a real starting left fielder in the lineup and putting Holt back in the super-utility role where he is best used.

 

It seems like the Red Sox have been running into this situation a lot lately. Players who are too valuable to trade, and not valuable enough to get anything in return. Unless they're hurting roster space, I just say keep them.

[Palodios]

I think Benintendi is a bridge too far this year. We're going to need to fill in time for at least this year to get to Benintendi, and in the end math we may wind up needing Benintendi to replace JBJ, who is not off to a great start this year.

 

Not saying it's impossible, I'm saying too much has to go right by Benintendi to be counting on it at this point.

 

JBJ has a .691 OPS, and needs to be replaced. Holt has a .722 OPS and deserrve All-star consideration?

 

Bradley is hitting well enough to justify his glove, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

Bradley has had some key hits lately too.

[Jack Flap]

I think Benintendi is a bridge too far this year. We're going to need to fill in time for at least this year to get to Benintendi, and in the end math we may wind up needing Benintendi to replace JBJ, who is not off to a great start this year.

 

Not saying it's impossible, I'm saying too much has to go right by Benintendi to be counting on it at this point.

 

You're definitely right that it's a stretch, and I'm not counting on it by any means. There seems to be a sense around baseball that he has the makings of a fast-rising Conforto/Schwarber type, and I thought he could have gone to Salem last year and started this season in Portland, but the Red Sox seem content to move him along a bit more slowly.

[cp176]

Unless we pay out the ass again to get a TOTR SP, a trade like this seems inevitable. Not sure how teams view Kopech and his two seasons of suspension and injury (attitude, smarts?), but the talent is there. The main pieces wld of course be Swihart & Devers. Maybe replace Kopech w/ Marco Hernandez? Guerra would've been a nice piece to tip the scales, but thats a whole 'nother can of worms I'd rather leave closed. Either way, I know I've come a long way on how to view Swihart. I feel this team is close to being championship caliber again. If a trade like this puts us over the top and is cost controlled I'd have to pull the trigger. Imagine DD does something like this and in the off-season still goes after Strasburg?? We'd be set for a while.

 

Just a little point here for people who think that trading a player like guerra could have a significant impact on our future. Dubon could possibly be a better player right now!

[cp176]

Yet the first player the Phillies asked for last year in any trade negotiations for Cole Hamels was Blake Swihart, by name. The Sox hung up the phone.

 

Well there you I guess. I would not have hung up the phone on that one.

[cp176]

[/i]

 

Have you seen what some teams have for a catcher right now?

 

1) You have to go down to 40 PAs to get a sample size of 30catchers (1 per team).

2) The mean OPS is .722.

3) Eleven catchers have an OPS of .605 or lower.

4) Seven teams have a catcher with an OPs at .502 or lower

5) Four are at .415 or lower.

6) Whole team catcher OPS is even worse:

#15 .661

#20 .594 (Red Sox)

#26 .466

#29 .406 (Houston)

#30 .392 (TBR)

 

I am convinced some GM would pay dearly for Swihart (or Vazquez).

 

 

Are you trying to convince me that Swihart is a better ml catcher than he is right now or that Vazquez is a better ml hitter than he is right now? I don't need to be stat beaten once again. I have served my probationary period and don't need these stats to help me along. Simply saying that Swihart because he is not a competent everyday catcher right now, that his trade value is not as high as some think that it is. I absolutely feel that it is less now than when his name came up in talks last year. Now with all of that, if in fact Vazquez's name came up as being available there would be very few teams that would not be in on that one. Most could care less if he hits at all right now. The value of a catcher is simply at what level does he catch. Not to mention the fact that the Sox will probably be keeping Vazquez around for a long time.

[User Name]

What you think, and what the evidence says are two entirely different things. Besides, prospects are about potential, not current ability.