2016 Season General Red Sox Chat

[Kimmi]

Panic or a sense of urgency are not necessarily bad things. In any event the team seems to be responding well to these moves.

 

They are not necessarily bad things and things are going very well right now. A sense of urgency equates to "win now". My concern has always been with the long term ramifications.

[Kimmi]

What reason would there be not to call CV up ASAP? The team had made no commitment to Swihart as an everyday catcher, and CV represented a big defensive upgrade at catcher. There's no logic to not calling up Vazquez as soon as he was ready.

 

No disrespect to Swihart, but CV is a gold standard in defensive catching. There's no reason to have CV anywhere but in the majors if he's healthy.

 

1. Giving Swihart more of a chance (8 games, really?) to establish himself as a starting catcher at the big league level.

2. Not rushing Vazquez. He might be ready, but Wieters also thought he was ready. He suffered some setbacks because he was rushed back.

 

I would like to make it clear again that I much prefer Vazquez catching. I still believe the FO acted rashly in that decision.

[Dojji]

1. Giving Swihart more of a chance (8 games, really?) to establish himself as a starting catcher at the big league level.

 

I'd say Swihart established what he was to everyone's satisfaction last year. he wasn't up to "get a chance." He was up as an injury replacement, just like he was last year when the team was force ti give him all the "chances" he could handle and then some..

 

2. Not rushing Vazquez. He might be ready, but Wieters also thought he was ready. He suffered some setbacks because he was rushed back.

 

Not rushing vazquez is why Swihart got any starts in April. I'd say they have tha base covered.

[Maxbialystock]

First, I have zero suspicions. Indeed, I don't recall any Sox player being suspended but suspect one or more has been. But I ask the question because I don't know how MLB is testing/checking this year.

[Jasonbay44]

Wasn't there a report earlier this week that said "numerous players will be suspended in upcoming days for PEDs"? Whatever happened with that? Was Raul Mondesi Jr. really the big guy getting suspended they were hyping up like a huge name was going down?

 

 

I hope no one on the Sox is suspended, but some random minor league guy will probably get suspended, seems like every team has at least one.

[Emp9]

I was gonna say, probably not anyone from the major league roster, but the minors you can't ever count out because they can be young and stupid.

[Maxbialystock]

I apologize to one and all for this stupid thread. What I really wanted to know is how rigorous the testing is these days. In any case, I hope Youk comes along and kills this thread.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Yeah I'm not sure why you started it either, there have been zero rumors or suspicions about Red Sox players this season, and you yourself answered your own question with "not likely", which is what we all would have figured. I'm not going to kill the thread, but since there really hasn't been any reason to discuss Red Sox PED use in depth, I'm just going to move it to the General Sox discussion thread. If a Sox player gets suspended, though, we will probably need a separate thread to discuss that. I hope that doesn't happen though, obviously.

[Kimmi]

I can't remember what thread the discussion about Swihart's trade value was in, so I'll post this tweet here.

 

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats 2h2 hours ago

 

NL baseball ops guy to me: "From what I've heard the White Sox are more than obsessed with Swihart. Tough to find a match there though."

 

As I said before, I think that other teams still value Swihart a lot higher than some of the posters here do.

[a700hitter]

I can't remember what thread the discussion about Swihart's trade value was in, so I'll post this tweet here.

 

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats 2h2 hours ago

 

NL baseball ops guy to me: "From what I've heard the White Sox are more than obsessed with Swihart. Tough to find a match there though."

 

As I said before, I think that other teams still value Swihart a lot higher than some of the posters here do.

If they were obsessed, a match would be easy. I don't think anyone debated that he has value. He is a very valuable trade chip, but that will start to erode at some point. The life of a prospect is that they either move up or they move out.

[cp176]

If they were obsessed, a match would be easy. I don't think anyone debated that he has value. He is a very valuable trade chip, but that will start to erode at some point. The life of a prospect is that they either move up or they move out.

 

Agree - He still has value to them and to us. They keep playing him in left field and he keeps hitting at a .217 pace, his value as a trade chip is basically gone. Leave him alone, let him catch (just catch) and he might even be able to help us down the line. One year, two years, who knows. he needs to learn how to catch.

[Kimmi]

If they were obsessed, a match would be easy. I don't think anyone debated that he has value. He is a very valuable trade chip, but that will start to erode at some point. The life of a prospect is that they either move up or they move out.

 

No, a match is not necessarily easy. If Swihart continues to struggle and not develop, then obviously his value will go down. I'm just saying that, contrary to what some people here believe, his value did not go down after last season and 8 games of this season. Other GMs realize that Swihart was put in a difficult situation last year and that he is still developing.

[a700hitter]

No, a match is not necessarily easy. If Swihart continues to struggle and not develop, then obviously his value will go down. I'm just saying that, contrary to what some people here believe, his value did not go down after last season and 8 games of this season. Other GMs realize that Swihart was put in a difficult situation last year and that he is still developing.

His value will start to decline as he plays LF in the minors. His value is at catcher. He needs to catch. He should be catching full time in AAA to build his value and then trade him.

[mvp 78]

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

Fangraphs has projected the chance of the Sox winning the division at 71%. They also have an expected win total of 92.

 

Sox and Cubs have the two highest WS %'s.

 

Still a tabloid though...

[Kimmi]

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

Fangraphs has projected the chance of the Sox winning the division at 71%. They also have an expected win total of 92.

 

Sox and Cubs have the two highest WS %'s.

 

Still a tabloid though...

 

Baseball Prospectus, the other "tabloid" has projected the Sox' chance of winning the division to be 59.4%, the chance of making the playoffs to be 81.1%, and the chance of winning the World Series to be 10.3%.

 

The Sox are on pace to win 102 games.

[Northern Star]

I can't remember what thread the discussion about Swihart's trade value was in, so I'll post this tweet here.

 

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats 2h2 hours ago

 

NL baseball ops guy to me: "From what I've heard the White Sox are more than obsessed with Swihart. Tough to find a match there though."

 

As I said before, I think that other teams still value Swihart a lot higher than some of the posters here do.

 

Swihart for Sale straight up.. Get it done, DD.

[Northern Star]

Baseball Prospectus, the other "tabloid" has projected the Sox' chance of winning the division to be 59.4%, the chance of making the playoffs to be 81.1%, and the chance of winning the World Series to be 10.3%.

 

The Sox are on pace to win 102 games.

 

For winning percentages I rely on fivethirtyeight.

[Kimmi]

For winning percentages I rely on fivethirtyeight.

 

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is the same Nate Silver who developed PECOTA, which he sold to Baseball Prospectus. In other words, I would guess the projection systems of the 2 sites are very similar, though I'm sure tweaks have been made to both systems.