2016 Red Sox Win Projections

[mvp 78]

Where do you expect this time to wind up on 10/2?

[Spudboy]

80-86 wins.

[User Name]

85-89, compete for a WC spot.

[Thunder]

90ish, AL East champs, host CLE/HOU in Game 1

[Dojji]

Without reading the rest of the thread, I think 85. We're going to have decent starting pitching and a strong bullpen, but I do believe that we will struggle at times to put men across home plate, and that will hold us back.

 

Now of course if we have a surge from the youngsters, that could push us further than that, I'm kind of figuring without major progress from Castillo, Betts, Bradley, Eddie, Bogaerts and Swihart/Vazquez. if multiple of these players play up to their potential, this projection goes from "realistic" to "Eeyore" in a hurry and the team could be something special. But I think it's a little too much to hope for for all these young pieces to click at once.

Edited February 26, 2016 by Dojji

[Youk Of The Nation]

93-95 wins

[a700hitter]

85-89, but breakout seasons from ER, Betts and Bogaerts could move the needle into the 90's.

[cp176]

85-89

[jacksonianmarch]

82 without another acquisition. Add a legit #2 for half a season or more and I'll got 86-88

[mvp 78]

I'm at the 85-89 estimate as well. I don't expect them to get the WC, but I think there will be a good race the last few weeks.

[Kimmi]

93-95 wins

 

I knew there was a reason why I like you.

[Kimmi]

I am hovering between 89 or 90 wins, which made it difficult for me to vote in this poll.

 

However, being the optimist that I am, I'll go with 90 and a playoff berth.

[a700hitter]

I am hovering between 89 or 90 wins, which made it difficult for me to vote in this poll.

 

However, being the optimist that I am, I'll go with 90 and a playoff berth.

There is nothing between 89 and 90 wins.

[iortiz]

85-89. Still I do not see enough pitching to be a real contender, but hopefully they make a move at some point.

[mvp 78]

85-89. Still I do not see enough pitching to be a real contender, but hopefully they make a move at some point.

 

So contender for Wild Card, but not for Championship?

[iortiz]

So contender for Wild Card, but not for Championship?

 

Hi MVP, yeah, I think that's the way I see the team.

[iortiz]

I think ESPN is seeding us at 10.

[mvp 78]

Hi MVP, yeah, I think that's the way I see the team.

 

It looks like the vast majority agrees!

[Thunder]

There is nothing between 89 and 90 wins.

 

If game #162 is suspended, they'll grant each team half a win each.

[Orange Juiced]

Things go wrong: 73

Things go great: 96

 

So my best guess: More things go right than go wrong, and they end up with between 88-90 wins, in the hunt for the division all season long, and end up making the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

Updated standings projections from 3 of the main computer systems:

 

Fangraphs now has the Sox winning a mere 88 games. This is still good enough, by their projections, for the best record in the AL, and thereby winning the division.

 

PECOTA projects the Sox to win 88 games also. They have the Rays winning the division with 90 wins and the Sox grabbing the first WC spot.

 

Davenport also has the Sox winning 88 games and winning the division.

 

All 3 systems have the Sox making the playoffs. I realize the limitations of these projections. Just saying that if things go mostly according to plan, we should have a good team.

[mvp 78]

Well, 85-89 is where most of us picked them to finish.

[Kimmi]

Well, 85-89 is where most of us picked them to finish.

 

I'm still going with 90.

 

Just because I can.

[mvp 78]

I'm still going with 90.

 

Just because I can.

 

I hope they do better than that. I would like Farrell and Pablo to surprise everyone this year.

[mvp 78]

I hope Buch wins the CY.

[mvp 78]

I hope Papi ends with a 4th ring.

[mvp 78]

I hope Pedoia is traded.

[Spudboy]

Well, 85-89 is where most of us picked them to finish.

 

This makes me the Bah humbug guy here.

 

Of course if they trade Pedroia for a #2 starter I may feel differently!

[NativeBostonian]

I'm going with 82 wins.

[jacksonianmarch]

NB, I think you are correct. I don't see the team as currently constructed to be much more than a .500 team without another addition in the rotation