Craig Kimbrel to Boston

[mvp 78]

What additional pieces do you think would have netted us Sale or Gray?

 

Betts/Xander, plus Rodriguez.

[a700hitter]

Betts/Xander, plus Rodriguez.

Oh, now I understand why losing Margot and Guerra was so critical. All hope of landing a number 1 starter via trade is now lost.

[Palodios]

Betts/Xander, plus Rodriguez.

 

I never understand how some teams can trade for aces with 2-3 elite prospects, but when the Red Sox try it ends up costing 2-3 elite prospects and two effective major leaguers. Its as if the Red Sox organization are terrible negotiators.

 

Cole Hamels cost BAA's 45th and 83rd best prospects, and included Matt Harrison as a salary dump for the Rangers. How is it that #25 and #76 couldn't get someone at Hamel's level?

[example1]

Haven't read everyone's comments here, but here are my thoughts:

 

Bold move by DD. Hard to know if it is a good move or not given all the moving pieces--it will take time. I can say that IF Margot and Guerra both reach their ceilings and Allen becomes a legitimate MLB pitcher then the Sox really sold low on them. They handed over a bunch of lottery tickets, but not the kind that are 1/1,000,000, but more like 1/5. I tend to be more on the conservative side with trading talent and I tend to frown on the notion of the "closer" being a truly critical role. But I'm willing to give DD the benefit of the doubt in being able to read the situation and project the impact of this on the rest of the team and roles. It does immediately give them a great setup man in Koji and puts Taz where he belongs. So it also makes the entire pitching staff much more of a 6 inning staff than needing to have horses; or, to put it another way, although they still want their pitchers to be horses they can afford to be a bit more mediocre.

 

Kimbrel is a rare talent. There is literally one or two other people on the planet who have his combination of skills. You have to pay for that, whether its in architecture, art, music or relief pitching. There's a good chance that over the next few years I will say "I'm really glad we have him" many times. Dude is dominant.

 

So yes, I'm waffling. It's too hard to tell right now how good the deal was. But I asked myself tonight whether I would have preferred a deal with just one of Devers, Moncada, Espinoza, or Benintendi and I don't think I would. In other words, if I had the choice of trading one of those guys or this group of four, I probably would have selected this group of four. So if that's the price to keep those high ceilings and get Kimbrel I may lament it at first but will probably be happy with the direction in short order.

[a700hitter]

Haven't read everyone's comments here, but here are my thoughts:

 

Bold move by DD. Hard to know if it is a good move or not given all the moving pieces--it will take time. I can say that IF Margot and Guerra both reach their ceilings and Allen becomes a legitimate MLB pitcher then the Sox really sold low on them. They handed over a bunch of lottery tickets, but not the kind that are 1/1,000,000, but more like 1/5. I tend to be more on the conservative side with trading talent and I tend to frown on the notion of the "closer" being a truly critical role. But I'm willing to give DD the benefit of the doubt in being able to read the situation and project the impact of this on the rest of the team and roles. It does immediately give them a great setup man in Koji and puts Taz where he belongs. So it also makes the entire pitching staff much more of a 6 inning staff than needing to have horses; or, to put it another way, although they still want their pitchers to be horses they can afford to be a bit more mediocre.

 

Kimbrel is a rare talent. There is literally one or two other people on the planet who have his combination of skills. You have to pay for that, whether its in architecture, art, music or relief pitching. There's a good chance that over the next few years I will say "I'm really glad we have him" many times. Dude is dominant.

 

So yes, I'm waffling. It's too hard to tell right now how good the deal was. But I asked myself tonight whether I would have preferred a deal with just one of Devers, Moncada, Espinoza, or Benintendi and I don't think I would. In other words, if I had the choice of trading one of those guys or this group of four, I probably would have selected this group of four. So if that's the price to keep those high ceilings and get Kimbrel I may lament it at first but will probably be happy with the direction in short order.

imo, DD's thinking probably wasn't much different than your thoughts on this trade. The tipping point was probably that these guys were completely blocked in our organization. They had NO path to the majors with the Red Sox, and that does lessen their trade value somewhat. Other teams know where your depth is and they know that those players had no value to the Red Sox as future major leaguers. As with most other trades, we will just have to see how this one plays out. In the meantime, our pen just got much better and I am looking forward to watching Kimbrel pitch.

[a700hitter]

I never understand how some teams can trade for aces with 2-3 elite prospects, but when the Red Sox try it ends up costing 2-3 elite prospects and two effective major leaguers. Its as if the Red Sox organization are terrible negotiators.

 

Cole Hamels cost BAA's 45th and 83rd best prospects, and included Matt Harrison as a salary dump for the Rangers. How is it that #25 and #76 couldn't get someone at Hamel's level?

The Red Sox want to trade for a cost controlled cheap young ace. Hamels comes with a big price tag. Plus he is 31. What young cost-controlled ace has gone so cheaply that it wouldn't cost a young star? You are not going to get one of them for Margot and Guerra and a couple of "effective" major leaguers. Give some examples where there type of trade has happened where the ace wasn't either a salary dump, over age 30, or in his walk year.

[mvp 78]

I never understand how some teams can trade for aces with 2-3 elite prospects, but when the Red Sox try it ends up costing 2-3 elite prospects and two effective major leaguers. Its as if the Red Sox organization are terrible negotiators.

 

Cole Hamels cost BAA's 45th and 83rd best prospects, and included Matt Harrison as a salary dump for the Rangers. How is it that #25 and #76 couldn't get someone at Hamel's level?

 

Hamels is not Gray or Sale. C'mon...

[SoxnCycles]

It's November 15, sk. We have to think positive here IMO.

 

Ok.

I'm positive that if Koji was in desperate need of being replaced at the closer role, then he's not going to fare a whole lot better in a more demanding 8th inning role. Which debunks the "we strengthened the pen, because Koji and Taz can move down an inning".

 

I'm also positive that, while Kimbral is a nice get, the Sox overpaid. I'd rather they overpay for a starter.

Kinmbrals numbers last year, while still good, were down, in a pitchers park.

Let's hope Fenway isn't even tougher on him. If so, all this "positivity" will be gone by May.

[SoxnCycles]

Seriously, you all need to stop with your silliness about this trading prospect business. The outcry is not about trading prospects, it's about the value of what was given up versus what we got in return.

 

Had we put together a package for Gray or Sale, there would be no outcry provided that what we gave up was not a huge overpay. Overpaying is one thing - we all know it's often necessary. A steep overpay is another.

 

For what we gave up for Kimbrel, we could have thrown in a couple more key pieces and probably gotten Sale or Gray, or at least Carrasco or Salazar, who sound like they are more "available".

 

You'll probably have to post that 15 or 20 more times, before the more dense members of the group finally absorb it....

[jacksonianmarch]

I never understand how some teams can trade for aces with 2-3 elite prospects, but when the Red Sox try it ends up costing 2-3 elite prospects and two effective major leaguers. Its as if the Red Sox organization are terrible negotiators.

 

Cole Hamels cost BAA's 45th and 83rd best prospects, and included Matt Harrison as a salary dump for the Rangers. How is it that #25 and #76 couldn't get someone at Hamel's level?

 

Hamels was also 31 and had 3.5 yrs (most likely 4.5) left on his contract at $22.5 mil per season. Sale is younger, better and signed for a cheaper amount of money. Hamels deal was about getting quantity of big league prospects rather than a single quantity. They got 4 of the top 13 prospects on the Rangers and in acquiring Harrison, at least got a guy who, when he is healthy (HUGE IF) he can replace some of what Hamels was. All of that for a starter at 31 yrs old signed for another 3.5 yrs at around $80 mil guaranteed.

[Elktonnick]

I never understand how some teams can trade for aces with 2-3 elite prospects, but when the Red Sox try it ends up costing 2-3 elite prospects and two effective major leaguers. Its as if the Red Sox organization are terrible negotiators.

 

Cole Hamels cost BAA's 45th and 83rd best prospects, and included Matt Harrison as a salary dump for the Rangers. How is it that #25 and #76 couldn't get someone at Hamel's level?

And the GM who made that trade is now the 1st base coach for the Boston Red Sox.

[jacksonianmarch]

I highly doubt that Amaro made that deal or at least had the autonomy to pull that deal off. The incoming president definitely had a say.

[Elktonnick]

I highly doubt that Amaro made that deal or at least had the autonomy to pull that deal off. The incoming president definitely had a say.

 

Perhaps he did and perhaps he didn't. The only thing we know for sure is Amaro got fired two months after that deal was made.

[SoxnCycles]

Perhaps he did and perhaps he didn't. The only thing we know for sure is Amaro got fired two months after that deal was made.

 

Yes, I'm sure it was that and not the fact that the Phillies played .500 or worse for the last four years.

 

Jesus...

[Spudboy]

And Cherington (or Lucchino) was the boss last year. Did you cede to his judgment on the Hanley and Pablo signings?

 

I have stated my opinions on those deal several times. There is no need to re-hash that crap again. Both moves were far from ideal.

[Palodios]

Hamels was also 31 and had 3.5 yrs (most likely 4.5) left on his contract at $22.5 mil per season. Sale is younger, better and signed for a cheaper amount of money. Hamels deal was about getting quantity of big league prospects rather than a single quantity. They got 4 of the top 13 prospects on the Rangers and in acquiring Harrison, at least got a guy who, when he is healthy (HUGE IF) he can replace some of what Hamels was. All of that for a starter at 31 yrs old signed for another 3.5 yrs at around $80 mil guaranteed.

 

Matt Harrison, hasn't pitched since 2012, he was a 26 million dollar salary dump. He might as well be Allen Craig. Comparisons are never perfect, but the Rangers got a top of the rotation guy for his early 30s at low monetary value at a cost similar to we did for Kimbrel.

Edited November 16, 2015 by Palodios

[Elktonnick]

Matt Harrison, hasn't pitched since 2012, he was a 26 million dollar salary dump. He might as well be Allen Craig. Comparisons are never perfect, but the Rangers got a top of the rotation guy for his early 30s at low monetary value at a cost similar to we did for Kimbrel.

 

Ruben Amaro was rated the worst GM in baseball for several years. It was during his tenure that the Rangers made the deal for Hamels. It is unrealistic to think that every GM is as incompetent as was Amaro when that deal was made.

[Bellhorn04]

Ok.

I'm positive that if Koji was in desperate need of being replaced at the closer role, then he's not going to fare a whole lot better in a more demanding 8th inning role. Which debunks the "we strengthened the pen, because Koji and Taz can move down an inning".

 

I'm also positive that, while Kimbral is a nice get, the Sox overpaid. I'd rather they overpay for a starter.

Kinmbrals numbers last year, while still good, were down, in a pitchers park.Let's hope Fenway isn't even tougher on him. If so, all this "positivity" will be gone by May.

 

Kimbrel got off to a rough start last year. Over his last 44 games he had a 1.44 ERA.

[SoxnCycles]

Kimbrel got off to a rough start last year. Over his last 44 games he had a 1.44 ERA.

 

His WHIP has also risen every season since 2012.

 

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler

The Padres got better prospects for Craig Kimbrel than the ones they gave the Braves for him in April. Great trade for San Diego.

[jacksonianmarch]

The interesting thing about Kimbrel is that his average fastball velocity actually has gone UP. Most relievers in decline see their velo start to dwindle. He has gone from 95.4mph in his rookie season to 97.3mph last yr, which is a career high. Yes, his WHIP has risen. Yes, his K rate isn't what it used to be. But what you are staring at is a guy whose velocity has risen and the highs he came off of aren't repeatable. In 2012, he had a FIP of 0.78 and he struck out 16.7 per 9IP. To expect that on a yearly basis is dumb.

[example1]

imo, DD's thinking probably wasn't much different than your thoughts on this trade. The tipping point was probably that these guys were completely blocked in our organization. They had NO path to the majors with the Red Sox, and that does lessen their trade value somewhat. Other teams know where your depth is and they know that those players had no value to the Red Sox as future major leaguers. As with most other trades, we will just have to see how this one plays out. In the meantime, our pen just got much better and I am looking forward to watching Kimbrel pitch.

 

Seems like a stretch to say that they had no value to the Sox as future major leaguers. I don't really buy the line of argument that because someone is currently blocked they don't have a role on the team. Margot might have been up to Boston next season. Is there no belief that Castillo or Bradley might regress to something worse than Margot? Or that other opportunities might present themselves? Similarily with Guerra--he's a few years away. No chance Bogaerts gets hurt? Or, even more obviously, no chance that anyone else values Guerra higher over the next 3 years? I just have a hard time believing that the Sox were the ones without options when it comes to some of these prospects.

 

All that said, I think it fits more neatly into the category of "you have to experience some pain to get good players" and that's all the justification we need. The relief market this year is weak and Kimbrel is arguably the best there is. That's all I need for justification. Sometimes you spend more than market value on a house or other items simply because you fall in love with it, and you stop worrying about the extra money spent because you love the house. In this case, if DD feels better knowing that the 9th inning is locked up 90% of the time over the next 3 years then I understand the reasoning.

 

I just have a hard time believing that because the Sox have a couple OFs and a solid SS that suddenly those prospects are devalued. The Sox may be willing to part with them for that reason, but that shouldn't have much impact on their value.

[a700hitter]

I

Seems like a stretch to say that they had no value to the Sox as future major leaguers. I don't really buy the line of argument that because someone is currently blocked they don't have a role on the team. Margot might have been up to Boston next season. Is there no belief that Castillo or Bradley might regress to something worse than Margot? Or that other opportunities might present themselves? Similarily with Guerra--he's a few years away. No chance Bogaerts gets hurt? Or, even more obviously, no chance that anyone else values Guerra higher over the next 3 years? I just have a hard time believing that the Sox were the ones without options when it comes to some of these prospects.

 

All that said, I think it fits more neatly into the category of "you have to experience some pain to get good players" and that's all the justification we need. The relief market this year is weak and Kimbrel is arguably the best there is. That's all I need for justification. Sometimes you spend more than market value on a house or other items simply because you fall in love with it, and you stop worrying about the extra money spent because you love the house. In this case, if DD feels better knowing that the 9th inning is locked up 90% of the time over the next 3 years then I understand the reasoning.

 

I just have a hard time believing that because the Sox have a couple OFs and a solid SS that suddenly those prospects are devalued. The Sox may be willing to part with them for that reason, but that shouldn't have much impact on their value.

i did not say that they would be drastically devalued because their MLB future with the Red Sox was a long shot due to being blocked, but yes I do think in a negotiation it lessens your leverage.

[Spudboy]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

"Chapman is projected to earn $12.9MM in 2016 by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. That will be Chapman’s final year of club control before free agency, so with one year of control at top-of-the-market money, he comes with less trade value than Frazier. Nevertheless, it’s easy enough to envision a team being willing to part with an MLB-ready asset and another lower-level piece or two in order to secure a season of Chapman’s 100mph+ dominance."

 

If so, maybe the deal for Kimbrel can be seen in a more positive light.

[Palodios]

Ruben Amaro was rated the worst GM in baseball for several years. It was during his tenure that the Rangers made the deal for Hamels. It is unrealistic to think that every GM is as incompetent as was Amaro when that deal was made.

 

They tried trading Hamels for what seemed like several years. I imagine that deal was the best they were going to get.

[Palodios]

I just have a hard time believing that because the Sox have a couple OFs and a solid SS that suddenly those prospects are devalued. The Sox may be willing to part with them for that reason, but that shouldn't have much impact on their value.

 

Betts was blocked at 2B, and that seems to have worked out pretty well.

[mvp 78]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

"Chapman is projected to earn $12.9MM in 2016 by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. That will be Chapman’s final year of club control before free agency, so with one year of control at top-of-the-market money, he comes with less trade value than Frazier. Nevertheless, it’s easy enough to envision a team being willing to part with an MLB-ready asset and another lower-level piece or two in order to secure a season of Chapman’s 100mph+ dominance."

 

If so, maybe the deal for Kimbrel can be seen in a more positive light.

Nah.

[Elktonnick]

They tried trading Hamels for what seemed like several years. I imagine that deal was the best they were going to get.

 

The question was raised why the Red Sox couldn't get an ace like Hamels by trading a similar level of players, the answer was that the Phillies had an an incompetent GM whose poor management of his ball club over several years placed them in a situation where this was all he thought he could get. Not every club who has an ace is cursed with management as poor as the Phillies had. So using the Hamels trade to question why the Sox couldn't make a deal like that is a poor example.

[a700hitter]

They tried trading Hamels for what seemed like several years. I imagine that deal was the best they were going to get.

He was never cost controlled and cheap. He came with a big price tag. He is completely different than Sale or Sonny Gray who are cheap young and under control.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, there is a year in the books now on those moves

 

Yes, I know that. I am talking about at the time the moves were made.

[Kimmi]

What additional pieces do you think would have netted us Sale or Gray?

 

For Sale, I think if you add Swihart and one other prospect (maybe Devers?), that would be enough. I don't know what Oakland is interested in, but something similar for Gray. Perhaps JBJ and another prospect might have been enough for Carrasco or Salazar.

 

To be fair, it's likely that Sale and Gray really are not available. However, I would have been happy with Carrasco or Salazar, one of whom I think would be available.