The search for an ace

[mvp 78]

That Bailey contract was unfortunate. Even so, I believe that the Sox could have had Lester back at about 5/120 -5/125.

 

But only if they struck right after the 2013 season.

 

They could have, sure. They didn't want to though.

[Dojji]

I'll never understand the decision to let Lester walk like that. He was durable, dependable and crafty, with both power and guile, nd more importantly he had a perfectly clean bill of health, was younger than the average FA to hit the market, and a better than average gamble to stay healthy, effective and motivated.

 

If you added Jon Lester to the list of this season's FA's he's the guy I'd have wanted over any of the current men available. And you could have gotten him for likely substantially less money. I don't know what factors may have convinced the organization to ignore that in favor of bringing in someone else but I just cannot find any way to agree with that decision that doesn't amount to a sophistry after the fact.

[Bellhorn04]

Verlander and VMart are bad contracts. Little to no farm system. Should have re-signed Max.

 

Scherzer's contract could end up bad too, no? All these big money deals are crazy risky.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll never understand the decision to let Lester walk like that. He was durable, dependable and crafty, with both power and guile, nd more importantly he had a perfectly clean bill of health, was younger than the average FA to hit the market, and a better than average gamble to stay healthy, effective and motivated.

 

If you added Jon Lester to the list of this season's FA's he's the guy I'd have wanted over any of the current men available. And you could have gotten him for likely substantially less money. I don't know what factors may have convinced the organization to ignore that in favor of bringing in someone else but I just cannot find any way to agree with that decision that doesn't amount to a sophistry after the fact.

 

I certainly disagreed with it.

[mvp 78]

Scherzer's contract could end up bad too, no? All these big money deals are crazy risky.

 

Could. Looks good now though.

[cp176]

I certainly disagreed with it.

 

I really hoped that they would sign Lester but I gave them credit for having some sort of plan to replace him. Anyone who knew anything knew that signing Porcello and Miley did not and would not make up for his loss. I really can't recall anyone here thinking that they were done. We all had a pretty good idea that we needed top of the rotation pitching. If there ever was a plan, it was the wrong one. We will see what DD does but I like his experience and his overall track record.

[Kimmi]

I really do applaud your loyalty but where is this idea of winning at all cost even coming from? Would you agree that it is a little early and a little unlikely that that is going to become the scenario? Positive approach for me. The plans if that is what we should call them, did not work out for last year. We have a new GM. He gets the same chance to prove that his way works from me that Ben did. His big move to date sends no shock wave through my spine that he is going to give away the players that we really might need going forward. Can we make more trades without that happening? - of course. I am betting on the fact that DD is not a numbskull who just doesn't get it.

 

I have already stated that it is too early to say that Dombrowski has a win at all cost mentality. I have also said that if he gets us our #1 starter and does not further gut the farm system, then I am good with what he has done this offseason.

[Kimmi]

They flip flopped every year since 2011. It just seems like they don't have a clear path. Maybe having DUMBrowski on board can help that. Aside from 2013, there has been a lot of horrible baseball played since September 2011.

 

They really have not flip flopped on their overall philosophy. They may have had different strategies on how to fill the holes via free agency, but their overall philosophy has remained the same. It appears that there is a change in that philosophy this year, however.

[Kimmi]

Tigers are on life support now though.

 

The Tigers are now in a state that comes long term with that "win now" mentality. The worst thing is, that win now mentality guarantees nothing.

 

In fairness to Dombrowski, I do believe that he was operating under the wishes of the Tigers' owners.

[Kimmi]

With Sox payroll, they should be able to win now AND build for the future. Having Betts and Xander at cheap money helps a lot.

 

Betts and Xander are not going to be cheap forever.

[a700hitter]

The Tigers are now in a state that comes long term with that "win now" mentality. The worst thing is, that win now mentality guarantees nothing.

 

In fairness to Dombrowski, I do believe that he was operating under the wishes of the Tigers' owners.

 

They won for 9 years. That is sustained winning, not a "win now" mentality.

[Dojji]

The Tigers are now in a state that comes long term with that "win now" mentality. The worst thing is, that win now mentality guarantees nothing.

 

In fairness to Dombrowski, I do believe that he was operating under the wishes of the Tigers' owners.

 

In fairness to both Dombrowski and the Tigers they had some damn good years in the middle of that win now phase. The problem is he's coming to a team that has been reaping the same consequences being in a win-now mode for damn near 20 years now.

 

We've been going straight for the gold, non stop, every single year since the Pedro-Garciaparra-Vaughn peak, even a super rich team is going to need to stop and catch its breath from time to time over span that long, and if it doesn't, nature has a way of forcing it to. 2013 was the last gasp.

 

Even if we can squeeze a few more wins out of our roster in the next couple seasons it's clear to me that it's just going to take time before the franchise can truly regenerate itself. We have been too poor at successfully graduating pitching prospects into franchise leaders to maintain sustained success indefinitely, until that changes, nothing Dumbrowski can do can change the fact that the franchise is on borrowed time.

 

Not even a rich team can sign its way out of all of its pitching deficits and while we have some hopes for Eddie, our last successful starter graduated into the big league roster is still Jon Lester and our last homegrown closer is still Jonathan Papelbon, both nearly a decade ago. Our pitching development staff has some serious splainin' to do.

 

We have to figure out why our pitchers aren't graduating and then maybe we can talk about getting back to the top. If our graduates are being supplemented by premium high cost stars, we can win. If it's the other way around we will continue to struggle no matter how our money and our GM can pad the roster.

Edited November 28, 2015 by Dojji

[cp176]

They really have not flip flopped on their overall philosophy. They may have had different strategies on how to fill the holes via free agency, but their overall philosophy has remained the same. It appears that there is a change in that philosophy this year, however.

 

Way to early to say that it appears that there is a philisophical change at this point in time.

[Bellhorn04]

They won for 9 years. That is sustained winning, not a "win now" mentality.

 

Yes, I agree. And they finished first 4 years in a row - something the Red Sox have never done in their history.

 

I think Dombrowski is getting a bit of a bad rap with the whole 'win now' thing.

[Bellhorn04]

Could. Looks good now though.

 

The Verlander contract is not necessarily that bad yet either. He had a strong second half last year and even though his last 2 years were off-years he still had fWARs of 2.9 and 2.8.

[cp176]

In fairness to both Dombrowski and the Tigers they had some damn good years in the middle of that win now phase. The problem is he's coming to a team that has been reaping the same consequences being in a win-now mode for damn near 20 years now.

 

We've been going straight for the gold, non stop, every single year since the Pedro-Garciaparra-Vaughn peak, even a super rich team is going to need to stop and catch its breath from time to time over span that long, and if it doesn't, nature has a way of forcing it to. 2013 was the last gasp.

 

Even if we can squeeze a few more wins out of our roster in the next couple seasons it's clear to me that it's just going to take time before the franchise can truly regenerate itself. We have been too poor at successfully graduating pitching prospects into franchise leaders to maintain sustained success indefinitely, until that changes, nothing Dumbrowski can do can change the fact that the franchise is on borrowed time.

 

Not even a rich team can sign its way out of all of its pitching deficits and while we have some hopes for Eddie, our last successful starter graduated into the big league roster is still Jon Lester and our last homegrown closer is still Jonathan Papelbon, both nearly a decade ago. Our pitching development staff has some serious splainin' to do.

 

We have to figure out why our pitchers aren't graduating and then maybe we can talk about getting back to the top. If our graduates are being supplemented by premium high cost stars, we can win. If it's the other way around we will continue to struggle no matter how our money and our GM can pad the roster.

 

I like this post in a lot of ways. You have to go back just about 20 years to find a time in Red Sox history where they have finished like they have in 3 out of the past 4 years. There were some blips on the radar screen but honestly you have to go back to the late 50's up to the 1966 season, to actually see a pattern like we are currently in. Since that time, we have expected them to compete and for the most part they have. Throughout the history of the franchise, it is safe to say that we are not known for producing an abundance of great pitching prospects. We have acquired pitching though every means possible. bought, traded and grown. Done what we had to do. I really hope that with some new leadership in place, that we will see a return to a time that we can expect to compete year in and year out. I'm not fussy as to how it gets done. it was time for a change.

[mvp 78]

Betts and Xander are not going to be cheap forever.

 

No, but it's the exact reason that you can spend more know while they are cheap. Ortiz will be gone next year (maybe). Pedroia will be traded (definitely). Fretting about signing a bonafide ace just doesn't make much sense to me.

[Kimmi]

They won for 9 years. That is sustained winning, not a "win now" mentality.

 

Part of the reason for them winning for so many years is the division that they play in. A win now mentality will make the team good for several years. Signing Price alone will likely not hurt the team in the long term. But signing several free agents to huge contracts in addition to selling the farm will. Not saying that Dombrowski is going to do that. I'm just saying that I hope that's not the direction the team is heading.

[cp176]

Part of the reason for them winning for so many years is the division that they play in. A win now mentality will make the team good for several years. Signing Price alone will likely not hurt the team in the long term. But signing several free agents to huge contracts in addition to selling the farm will. Not saying that Dombrowski is going to do that. I'm just saying that I hope that's not the direction the team is heading.

 

I agree with you but I have to say that fans of most teams feel exactly the same way.

[mvp 78]

Part of the reason for them winning for so many years is the division that they play in. A win now mentality will make the team good for several years. Signing Price alone will likely not hurt the team in the long term. But signing several free agents to huge contracts in addition to selling the farm will. Not saying that Dombrowski is going to do that. I'm just saying that I hope that's not the direction the team is heading.

 

Like signing Hanley and Panda?

[Kimmi]

In fairness to both Dombrowski and the Tigers they had some damn good years in the middle of that win now phase. The problem is he's coming to a team that has been reaping the same consequences being in a win-now mode for damn near 20 years now.

 

We've been going straight for the gold, non stop, every single year since the Pedro-Garciaparra-Vaughn peak, even a super rich team is going to need to stop and catch its breath from time to time over span that long, and if it doesn't, nature has a way of forcing it to. 2013 was the last gasp.

 

Even if we can squeeze a few more wins out of our roster in the next couple seasons it's clear to me that it's just going to take time before the franchise can truly regenerate itself. We have been too poor at successfully graduating pitching prospects into franchise leaders to maintain sustained success indefinitely, until that changes, nothing Dumbrowski can do can change the fact that the franchise is on borrowed time.

 

Not even a rich team can sign its way out of all of its pitching deficits and while we have some hopes for Eddie, our last successful starter graduated into the big league roster is still Jon Lester and our last homegrown closer is still Jonathan Papelbon, both nearly a decade ago. Our pitching development staff has some serious splainin' to do.

 

We have to figure out why our pitchers aren't graduating and then maybe we can talk about getting back to the top. If our graduates are being supplemented by premium high cost stars, we can win. If it's the other way around we will continue to struggle no matter how our money and our GM can pad the roster.

 

You make some good points. Dombrowski and the Tigers did have some very good years, as teams who are in "win now" mode usually do. However, during that span, they did not win the World Series.

 

I think it is very possible to have the same run of success without being in "win now" mode. It is very possible to build a franchise that can compete both in the short and long terms.

 

I think we agree that it starts with the farm system. It might be necessary to hand out a big contract to a free agent once in a while, but that should not be the norm. IMO, the free agents that are signed should be more of the solid, 2nd tier type players, not the superstars. The superstars should be the guys that are home grown. I also prefer paying more per year for fewer years rather than having a longer contract.

 

As far as why we haven't been able to graduate #1 pitchers, I think part of that has been our draft position, and part of that has been our draft philosophy. If the farm is strong enough, however, a top starter can be acquired through trade.

[Bellhorn04]

Part of the reason for them winning for so many years is the division that they play in. A win now mentality will make the team good for several years.

 

They won the division 4 years in a row. That is a long run. The Red Sox have never even finished first twice in a row in the last century.

 

I think Dombrowski's approach with Detroit was fine. He was trying to win championships. They didn't do it, but they made it to the ALCS 4 times and the WS twice. The only major difference between them and us is that we won the rings.

[Kimmi]

Way to early to say that it appears that there is a philisophical change at this point in time.

 

Yes, I have acknowledged that several times.

[cp176]

Like signing Hanley and Panda?

 

265 million invested in Ramirez, Sandoval, and Porcello. Not sure I like that direction much. We have an experienced GM leading the way. I am willing to accept the direction he takes us for a little while. It was time for a change.

[Kimmi]

Yes, I agree. And they finished first 4 years in a row - something the Red Sox have never done in their history.

 

I think Dombrowski is getting a bit of a bad rap with the whole 'win now' thing.

 

He was very successful in building a contending team, no doubt. He gets credit for that. However, what state is the team in now? The "win now" thing usually works for several years.

 

My concern is not how the team will look for the next 4 years or so. My concern is what happens when the high-priced free agents are no longer living up to their contracts and there are no cost-controlled youngsters that are worthy of being MLB starters?

 

There has to be a balance between short and long term goals. A win now at any cost mentality is not the way to build a franchise. I think everyone here agrees with that. That's all I'm trying to say.

 

And again, just to be clear, I am not saying that Dombrowski is heading in that direction. I'm just voicing concerns.

[Kimmi]

No, but it's the exact reason that you can spend more know while they are cheap. Ortiz will be gone next year (maybe). Pedroia will be traded (definitely). Fretting about signing a bonafide ace just doesn't make much sense to me.

 

Not fretting about signing a bonafide ace. Fretting about the possible long term repercussions of a big contract. Contrary to what people think, the Red Sox do not have unlimited resources. They may be willing to go over the luxury tax limit this year, but I very much doubt they will be willing to go over it in consecutive years.

 

So, what happens if Price's contract prices us out of being able to retain Mookie and/or Xander when they become free agents? Will we be happy then?

[Bellhorn04]

Not fretting about signing a bonafide ace. Fretting about the possible long term repercussions of a big contract. Contrary to what people think, the Red Sox do not have unlimited resources. They may be willing to go over the luxury tax limit this year, but I very much doubt they will be willing to go over it in consecutive years.

 

So, what happens if Price's contract prices us out of being able to retain Mookie and/or Xander when they become free agents? Will we be happy then?

 

Our problem is that we have been lousy at producing pitching, and acquiring good pitching by free agency or trade has become incredibly expensive. There's no way around it.

[Kimmi]

Like signing Hanley and Panda?

 

I have said many times that Panda's contract was not a good one. There were better options for 3rd base that I preferred over the Sox signing Panda. Hanley's contract I was okay with. Four years for a player that was supposed to be a premium hitter is not a huge contract.

 

But whether anyone thought they were good moves or not, those contracts kind of make my point, don't they?

[Kimmi]

They won the division 4 years in a row. That is a long run. The Red Sox have never even finished first twice in a row in the last century.

 

I think Dombrowski's approach with Detroit was fine. He was trying to win championships. They didn't do it, but they made it to the ALCS 4 times and the WS twice. The only major difference between them and us is that we won the rings.

 

I disagree. Everyone wants to win championships, but I think it can be done without sacrificing the long term outlook of the team. I don't like that approach at all.

[Kimmi]

Our problem is that we have been lousy at producing pitching, and acquiring good pitching by free agency or trade has become incredibly expensive. There's no way around it.

 

So perhaps we need a change in our draft and/or development philosophy as far as pitching is concerned, or a change in our scouting/coaching staff. Not a change in the overall philosophy of how to build a winning franchise.