The search for an ace

[mvp 78]

Imo, they should spin a lot of these unknowns into established MLers.

 

If the Reds are really putting everyone on the block, I'd go for Votto and Chapman without thinking twice.

[Spudboy]

The haul going the other way would have to be huge and would deplete the coins that the Sox could need to acquire a top of the rotation guy.

 

Yes, Voto would fill a need. Chapman would be too. But would this be the best utilization of resources?

[a700hitter]

It depends on what the goals of the White Sox are. If they're trying to contend next season, then trading Sale probably wouldn't make sense. If they're trying to reset and rebuild, then trading him for several top level prospects would make all the sense in the world.

 

Cherington did not have the luxury of taking 3-4 years to rebuild the team, without also trying to keep the team in contention every year while doing so. He had to also make moves for players who could keep the team competitive.

 

People are so hung up on the "3 last place finishes in 4 years" thing (which I can understand being upset about) that they can't see what a truly remarkable job Cherington did with the farm system. And as I keep saying, he managed to win a championship while doing so.

He had the luxury of finishing last 2 out of three years while rebuilding. He did not have the luxury of finishing last 3 out of 4 years, because at the team's payroll levels, it was too expensive to be a rebuild.

[Spudboy]

One more thing, Votto has a 10/225 deal running through 2023 and is 32.

 

Great player but a big tab.

[mvp 78]

One more thing, Votto has a 10/225 deal running through 2023 and is 32.

 

Great player but a big tab.

 

Sox are big pocket franchise in $$$ and prospects. They could swallow this easily.

[a700hitter]

One more thing, Votto has a 10/225 deal running through 2023 and is 32.

 

Great player but a big tab.

He is an awesome hitter, and very consistent. He's OBP beast. He could be our DH in waiting. He should have several years of productivity left. What is the financial situation with Chapman?

[mvp 78]

He is an awesome hitter, and very consistent. He's OBP beast. He could be our DH in waiting. He should have several years of productivity left. What is the financial situation with Chapman?

 

Arbitration this year. FA in offseason.

[GomesBeard]

Re: Cincinnati - would rather see them go for Todd Frazier vs Votto, and move Sandoval - or move Hanley and play Sandoval at first.

 

Re: Sale - he concerns me a big, his mechanics are so quirky that I wonder how long it will be before he breaks down. He's tall but weighs nothing. OTOH, his contract only runs through 2017 (plus 2 team options) and is very reasonable.

[Kimmi]

Imo, they should spin a lot of these unknowns into established MLers.

 

If the Reds are really putting everyone on the block, I'd go for Votto and Chapman without thinking twice.

 

I agree that the Sox need to trade some of these prospects for areas of need, namely pitching. That is part of the value of a strong farm system.

 

Votto and Chapman would be nice players to have, but I think their cost is going to be too high. It's not just the prospects that we will have to give up, but also their salaries on top of it.

[Kimmi]

The haul going the other way would have to be huge and would deplete the coins that the Sox could need to acquire a top of the rotation guy.

 

Yes, Voto would fill a need. Chapman would be too. But would this be the best utilization of resources?

 

If the Sox obtain a #1 starter through free agency, then they could use their trade chips in other areas of need. That said, Votto and Chapman also come with large salaries. Price (or whoever) would come with a large salary. I can't see ownership willing to commit to that much over the luxury tax.

[Kimmi]

He had the luxury of finishing last 2 out of three years while rebuilding. He did not have the luxury of finishing last 3 out of 4 years, because at the team's payroll levels, it was too expensive to be a rebuild.

 

That's the point - it wasn't a full rebuild. It was rebuilding while trying to remain competitive. And from what Gammons wrote yesterday, some of those expensive contracts came from higher up.

[Kimmi]

He is an awesome hitter, and very consistent. He's OBP beast. He could be our DH in waiting. He should have several years of productivity left. What is the financial situation with Chapman?

 

Chapman is expected to make about $13 mil in arbitration. Giving up prospects for a relief pitcher who will only be under control for one year, plus approximately $13 mil in salary is too steep, IMO.

[a700hitter]

That's the point - it wasn't a full rebuild. It was rebuilding while trying to remain competitive. And from what Gammons wrote yesterday, some of those expensive contracts came from higher up.

It failed miserably. They could have finished last at half the cost.

Edited November 12, 2015 by a700hitter

[example1]

Offseason thoughts:

 

The Sox clearly would benefit from a genuine ace. I just reviewed David Price's performance over the last 5 years or so and he's really been good. I feel like I've watched him pitch so many times that he somehow seems less dominant than the other best pitchers. But his numbers from 2011 to now are very comparable to Felix Hernandez. He's 2nd in WAR to Kershaw during that period, Felix is 3rd, Scherzer 4th:

 

NAME | IP | WAR | W | ERA | WHIP | K | K/9 | xFIP |

Price | 1090.2 | 26.3 | 75 | 3.02 | 1.10 | 1070 | 8.83 | 3.13 |

Felix | 1107.2 | 25.3 | 72 | 3.03 | 1.11 | 1100 | 8.94 | 2.97 |

 

That's virtually the same profile. Lots of strikeouts, lots of innings, lots of success. I've always thought Felix was amazing... probably should give Price more props. It seems like a no-brainer to blow him away with an offer. But is it? I just don't know. He's still only 30, so he's likely got some good years left. At the same time he's 30 and coming around the bend into his later years. I suspect they'd enjoy most of a 6 year contract with him, but it will cost them max dollar to get him.

 

Then there's Cueto--he's had some great seasons too. He's in his prime. If he's healthy then there's no reason to think he's going to be anything other than a very good pitcher for the next few years. But I don't know that he's a lock to be the best pitcher on the field 90% of his starts. And his decline in KC was rumored to be due to arm issues. Then he was fine in the World Series... hard to know. I think I like Cueto more than many do, so for him it all comes down to the price.

 

For both of these guys I wonder whether they're actually what Dombrowski wants. Arguably his two best acquisitions were Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer. Both were 25 at the time of the deal. That's young enough to get prime-age production. I think that's key. If you're going to take a risk, do it with a trade. A younger pitcher for a couple of young prospects. And the Red Sox are loaded with young guys Dombrowski has little attachment to, and who are widely regarded as really good.

 

To me all the pieces are there to get a franchise caliber young arm. I would blow some team out of the water. I've seen discussion about the Mets moving one of their starters. Seems like a long-shot. They're ready to win now. I would go hard for a guy like Jose Fernandez from Miami. Owens + Swihart + Bradley for Fernandez? He's only 23 and seems like the kind of pitcher who I wouldn't be shocked at all if he was the best pitcher in the league in 5 years. I mean, what does Miami have going for them? Yes, they have some good young players but they're in no position to hold on to anyone at all costs. "Fine, Owens, Swihart, Bradley, Devers, whatever." Even a deal like this would leave the Sox with pretty good farm system (Moncada, Margot, Benintendi still there).

 

Chris Sale would be another top preference.

 

None of this would preclude them making a big FA splash but I'm not sure it would have to be this year. I'm still pretty intrigued by Stephen Strasburg, who is a FA next year at 28. He may get less than Price does, be younger, and potentially as dominant.

 

There's a good chance none of these guys end up with the Sox, but I just have a hard time believing that Dombrowski will be satisfied with a 30+ year old, $25m year old pitcher as his big acquisition--especially because it will still leave him with more prospects than he can find room for. I don't think they should move Betts or Bogaerts under any circumstances. They have enough resources to get this player without either of them.

Edited November 12, 2015 by example1

[jung]

The problem with Cueto is the way the Reds used/overused/abused him the last few seasons. It must have been clear to them that they were not going to try to resign him and they just piled the innings on.

 

There is a very good chance that the next team that signs him pays the price for that in DL time and possible surgical repairs.

 

But our pitching assets are so much of an issue at this point that we really can't afford to be that picky. If we can sign a guy like Cueto and simply overpay without getting raped, he improves our overall pitching asset and we are at a point now where we have to improve there period. If it moves the rock farther down the road without being totally unreasonable, make the deal...,,move on, make the next one.

[a700hitter]

The problem with Cueto is the way the Reds used/overused/abused him the last few seasons. It must have been clear to them that they were not going to try to resign him and they just piled the innings on.

 

There is a very good chance that the next team that signs him pays the price for that in DL time and possible surgical repairs.

 

But our pitching assets are so much of an issue at this point that we really can't afford to be that picky. If we can sign a guy like Cueto and simply overpay without getting raped, he improves our overall pitching asset and we are at a point now where we have to improve there period. If it moves the rock farther down the road without being totally unreasonable, make the deal...,,move on, make the next one.

i think your concern about Cueto is on the mark. Any team that signs him needs a thorough physical and probably some insurance as someone here has suggested.

[a700hitter]

Offseason thoughts:

 

The Sox clearly would benefit from a genuine ace. I just reviewed David Price's performance over the last 5 years or so and he's really been good. I feel like I've watched him pitch so many times that he somehow seems less dominant than the other best pitchers. But his numbers from 2011 to now are very comparable to Felix Hernandez. He's 2nd in WAR to Kershaw during that period, Felix is 3rd, Scherzer 4th:

 

NAME | IP | WAR | W | ERA | WHIP | K | K/9 | xFIP |

Price | 1090.2 | 26.3 | 75 | 3.02 | 1.10 | 1070 | 8.83 | 3.13 |

Felix | 1107.2 | 25.3 | 72 | 3.03 | 1.11 | 1100 | 8.94 | 2.97 |

 

That's virtually the same profile. Lots of strikeouts, lots of innings, lots of success. I've always thought Felix was amazing... probably should give Price more props. It seems like a no-brainer to blow him away with an offer. But is it? I just don't know. He's still only 30, so he's likely got some good years left. At the same time he's 30 and coming around the bend into his later years. I suspect they'd enjoy most of a 6 year contract with him, but it will cost them max dollar to get him.

 

Then there's Cueto--he's had some great seasons too. He's in his prime. If he's healthy then there's no reason to think he's going to be anything other than a very good pitcher for the next few years. But I don't know that he's a lock to be the best pitcher on the field 90% of his starts. And his decline in KC was rumored to be due to arm issues. Then he was fine in the World Series... hard to know. I think I like Cueto more than many do, so for him it all comes down to the price.

 

For both of these guys I wonder whether they're actually what Dombrowski wants. Arguably his two best acquisitions were Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer. Both were 25 at the time of the deal. That's young enough to get prime-age production. I think that's key. If you're going to take a risk, do it with a trade. A younger pitcher for a couple of young prospects. And the Red Sox are loaded with young guys Dombrowski has little attachment to, and who are widely regarded as really good.

 

To me all the pieces are there to get a franchise caliber young arm. I would blow some team out of the water. I've seen discussion about the Mets moving one of their starters. Seems like a long-shot. They're ready to win now. I would go hard for a guy like Jose Fernandez from Miami. Owens + Swihart + Bradley for Fernandez? He's only 23 and seems like the kind of pitcher who I wouldn't be shocked at all if he was the best pitcher in the league in 5 years. I mean, what does Miami have going for them? Yes, they have some good young players but they're in no position to hold on to anyone at all costs. "Fine, Owens, Swihart, Bradley, Devers, whatever." Even a deal like this would leave the Sox with pretty good farm system (Moncada, Margot, Benintendi still there).

 

Chris Sale would be another top preference.

 

None of this would preclude them making a big FA splash but I'm not sure it would have to be this year. I'm still pretty intrigued by Stephen Strasburg, who is a FA next year at 28. He may get less than Price does, be younger, and potentially as dominant.

 

There's a good chance none of these guys end up with the Sox, but I just have a hard time believing that Dombrowski will be satisfied with a 30+ year old, $25m year old pitcher as his big acquisition--especially because it will still leave him with more prospects than he can find room for. I don't think they should move Betts or Bogaerts under any circumstances. They have enough resources to get this player without either of them.

Hey E1, how is it going. My recollection is that you live in Seattle. Palodios is now your neighbor. You guys can start your own Seattle Chapter of TalkSox.

 

With regard to your post, I would be thrilled if DD could pull off a deal for Fernandez for either of the packages you suggest. I don't see that happening. Fernandez when healthy may be th best pitcher in baseball. He is definitely top 5, and he is just a baby.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's the point - it wasn't a full rebuild. It was rebuilding while trying to remain competitive. And from what Gammons wrote yesterday, some of those expensive contracts came from higher up.

 

Can you link this article?

[jacksonianmarch]

I always love the questions as to whose fault it was when guys get signed. The fact of the matter remains, 2 people left the organization in Cherington and Lucchino. I think it can be safely assumed that those two guys made the decisions in the baseball ops department. Lucchino was marginalized after 2014 and Ben was going to be marginalized after 2015 until he basically quit. The fact is, there is never just one decision maker. Nobody has pure autonomy. Owners set budgets and need to sign off on basically all financial obligations. Presidents look at the big picture, beyond just personnel. The GM is responsible for player acquisitions within the set budget from above. There was definitely discord among the FO the last 2 years. You have the implosion of a world series team, the firesale of pitchers and the subsequent "failure" of the youth movement. A big market team CAN bring in kids and can get younger. But a big market club basically going full rebuild just doesn't happen. That being said, if you are going to "reload", you need to make sure your big purchases are sound. Pablo and Hanley were the two guys who had the biggest character issues linked to them last off-season. Panda basically got reamed by former Giants on his way out the door and there was an all too public dispute as 2014 ended about how he couldn't make his weight clauses. Hanley was with Boston and basically was hated by everyone. He goes to Miami and plays like a maniac yet everyone and their mother wanted him gone. He goes to LA, spends a few injury plagued but productive seasons there and is basically ushered out without even an offer. Pablo and Hanley were the highly productive cancers. The sox saw how cancers can cause a clubhouse to implode. They got rid of their cancers and won a title. They have a rough hangover 2014 season mostly due to the arrogance that 3 rookies can replace 3 stable vets and then they go out and sign 2 guys who ruin clubhouse chemistry and it showed. The sox played about .400 ball with Hanley in the lineup. They were a playoff level team without him. Pablo declined to the point of embarrassment at 3b and couldn't hit to save his life. Those two signings are the anchor on an otherwise up and coming offensive club. Cherington and Lucchino paid the price for it. Whoever actually pulled the trigger on it is irrelevant

[a700hitter]

I always love the questions as to whose fault it was when guys get signed. The fact of the matter remains, 2 people left the organization in Cherington and Lucchino. I think it can be safely assumed that those two guys made the decisions in the baseball ops department. Lucchino was marginalized after 2014 and Ben was going to be marginalized after 2015 until he basically quit. The fact is, there is never just one decision maker. Nobody has pure autonomy. Owners set budgets and need to sign off on basically all financial obligations. Presidents look at the big picture, beyond just personnel. The GM is responsible for player acquisitions within the set budget from above. There was definitely discord among the FO the last 2 years. You have the implosion of a world series team, the firesale of pitchers and the subsequent "failure" of the youth movement. A big market team CAN bring in kids and can get younger. But a big market club basically going full rebuild just doesn't happen. That being said, if you are going to "reload", you need to make sure your big purchases are sound. Pablo and Hanley were the two guys who had the biggest character issues linked to them last off-season. Panda basically got reamed by former Giants on his way out the door and there was an all too public dispute as 2014 ended about how he couldn't make his weight clauses. Hanley was with Boston and basically was hated by everyone. He goes to Miami and plays like a maniac yet everyone and their mother wanted him gone. He goes to LA, spends a few injury plagued but productive seasons there and is basically ushered out without even an offer. Pablo and Hanley were the highly productive cancers. The sox saw how cancers can cause a clubhouse to implode. They got rid of their cancers and won a title. They have a rough hangover 2014 season mostly due to the arrogance that 3 rookies can replace 3 stable vets and then they go out and sign 2 guys who ruin clubhouse chemistry and it showed. The sox played about .400 ball with Hanley in the lineup. They were a playoff level team without him. Pablo declined to the point of embarrassment at 3b and couldn't hit to save his life. Those two signings are the anchor on an otherwise up and coming offensive club. Cherington and Lucchino paid the price for it. Whoever actually pulled the trigger on it is irrelevant

Luchinno clearly pulled the trigger on all the bad deals as Cherington brilliantly rebuilt the farm system sans pitchers. Don't you know anything?

 

A few TalkSox members have fatheads of BC on their walls. LOL!

[mvp 78]

Luchinno clearly pulled the trigger on all the bad deals as Cherington brilliantly rebuilt the farm system sans pitchers. Don't you know anything?

 

A few TalkSox members have fatheads of BC on their walls. LOL!

 

No fat head, but I do have his bra hanging from my rafters.

Edited November 12, 2015 by mvp 78

[a700hitter]

No fat head, but I do have his bra hanging from my tafters.

If he gave you his bra, I can understand that you would defend him. Edited November 12, 2015 by a700hitter

[mvp 78]

I regret nothing...

 

He may regret his walk of shame afterwards though.

[a700hitter]

I regret nothing...

 

He may regret his walk of shame afterwards though.

If it is autographed, I think you could make a pretty penny if you put it on eBay.

[mvp 78]

Maybe even 2 pennies!

[Bellhorn04]

I always love the questions as to whose fault it was when guys get signed. The fact of the matter remains, 2 people left the organization in Cherington and Lucchino. I think it can be safely assumed that those two guys made the decisions in the baseball ops department. Lucchino was marginalized after 2014 and Ben was going to be marginalized after 2015 until he basically quit. The fact is, there is never just one decision maker. Nobody has pure autonomy. Owners set budgets and need to sign off on basically all financial obligations. Presidents look at the big picture, beyond just personnel. The GM is responsible for player acquisitions within the set budget from above. There was definitely discord among the FO the last 2 years. You have the implosion of a world series team, the firesale of pitchers and the subsequent "failure" of the youth movement. A big market team CAN bring in kids and can get younger. But a big market club basically going full rebuild just doesn't happen. That being said, if you are going to "reload", you need to make sure your big purchases are sound. Pablo and Hanley were the two guys who had the biggest character issues linked to them last off-season. Panda basically got reamed by former Giants on his way out the door and there was an all too public dispute as 2014 ended about how he couldn't make his weight clauses. Hanley was with Boston and basically was hated by everyone. He goes to Miami and plays like a maniac yet everyone and their mother wanted him gone. He goes to LA, spends a few injury plagued but productive seasons there and is basically ushered out without even an offer. Pablo and Hanley were the highly productive cancers. The sox saw how cancers can cause a clubhouse to implode. They got rid of their cancers and won a title. They have a rough hangover 2014 season mostly due to the arrogance that 3 rookies can replace 3 stable vets and then they go out and sign 2 guys who ruin clubhouse chemistry and it showed. The sox played about .400 ball with Hanley in the lineup. They were a playoff level team without him. Pablo declined to the point of embarrassment at 3b and couldn't hit to save his life. Those two signings are the anchor on an otherwise up and coming offensive club. Cherington and Lucchino paid the price for it. Whoever actually pulled the trigger on it is irrelevant

 

I don't agree that it's irrelevant who wanted Pablo and Hanley.

 

What you're leaving out is the failure of the remade pitching staff. I suspect that is what cost Ben his job.

[GomesBeard]

Lots of talk about the Mets trading Harvey again. Betts and Bogaerts for Harvey and ? Not sure I would do that deal, and I can't think of anyone else on the Mets roster I would want for that price. Maybe Conforto but he's probably too much from the Mets side.

[mvp 78]

Betts and Boegarts would never be put in the same trade. Not enough of a return.

 

I'd rather see Boegarts traded than Betts, but preference would be to keep them both. Without getting Gray or Sale, not sure who they'd be traded for.

 

Harvey? Lol nope. I wouldn't trade either for Harvey.

[Dojji]

I would ten thousand times rather trade Betts than Bogaerts. The upside of a 5 tool CF is impressive but nothing compared to the potential of a 5 tool shortstop.

 

Betts and Swihart right now are the two guys other teams are going to ask for. I don't think they'd even ask for Bogaerts because they know the Sox aren't going to be interested in moving him at all. Not until he starts getting expensive, and possibly not even then.

[jung]

One of them maybe might (and I do mean might) be a consideration for deGrum. Harvey...no way.

 

But this is a real world example of the problem. Even if we were interested, the Mets are not going to let us just reach into their pitching assets and choose who we want. They want to move Harvey.....Big Whoops!!! I frankly don't think we would be interested in Harvey but the Mets are not even going to make that move unless we toss at least XB or Betts their way.

 

Nobody, even the Mets with all their young pitching talent is just going to help us out of this mess.