The search for an ace

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, Elk, that's the conundrum. Would you rather pay just money for a player or would you rather pay a smaller amount of money and a shitload of prospects for a player? I know the length for which a player will be dominant will be less if you go buy them on the FA market. That being said, the payout in terms of prospects could be crippling. Regardless, for the sox, they have some good prospects as well as a bunch of young guys on the big league roster without a true, defined, and entrenched role. This means they have the prospect cache to get a deal for a young guy done. The question is whether they want to make such a deal. Cherington couldn't. He was too close. Dombrowski has no attachment. My guess is that he will have the stones to make a move. That might mean Devers or Moncada on another team.

[jacksonianmarch]

I just took a quick glance through the standings, and the only other terrible team with an ace is Miami, and they sure as s*** aren't trading Fernandez. If I was Beane, I would absolutely look into dealing Gray. He is the only ace on a bad team. This means he doesn't necessarily HAVE to get big league ready talent back. This means he could get 4 or 5 top prospects who might be a ways away instead of one top prospect and a big leaguer, like a team like Cleveland or NYM would need

[Elktonnick]

I wouldn't hesitate giving up Moncada or a Devers but I think it will take a Betts or a Bogaerts plus a Moncada or a Devers. And that still may not be enough. I just don't see it happening through the trade route.

[jacksonianmarch]

Elk, after looking a little more, I would be shocked if Beane DIDN'T deal Gray. He's the only ace on a rebuilding team. And Beane always seems to find the guys in a deal to get his team running again. The sox have a system that has plenty of prospects and a big league club full of young MLB ready talent, albeit not flourished yet. Think about it. The A's aren't going to contend in 2015. Gray is a little guy who throws hard who has had some hip and shoulder fatigue. He's got arb years left making him very attractive. And he is the only trade piece on the market that can headline a rotation and doesn't necessarily have to return an impact big leaguer from the get go. Gray to Boston makes a lot of sense. That being said, I think Boston is better off just signing Price as I think Gray is a shoulder explosion waiting to happen

[Spudboy]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2015/11/05/billy-beane-says-sonny-gray-not-for-sale/Vp8brgvLPLcycAuIbHm6ZL/story.html?story_hp

 

Billy Beane says Sonny Gray is not for sale

[mvp 78]

He said that about Donaldson last year too.

[Palodios]

Gray is available, but we just don't like the cost. Dombrowski had a great quote from last week.

 

--"I have always tried not to say players are untouchable. The reason I have done that is because you never can tell when somebody makes you an offer you just can’t believe. If you have Miguel Cabrera, somebody may offer you two Miguel Cabreras"

[sk7326]

Mets would have to be certifiable to trade Harvey unless some idiot gave up the farm for him.

 

They have a lot of arms and have to decide their budget. That said, selling Harvey without some major league improvement seems unlikely - you don't do any sort of teardown on a young pennant winner.

[Kimmi]

While I believe Kimmi, I can't believe someone like Henry could realistically believe that another club would give up a solid young starter who is a nbr 1 or even close to being a nbr 1. And who would that be, Keuchal deGrom?

 

Any club would be willing to give up a solid young starter for the right price. I don't think Henry is dumb enough to think he's going to get a young starter for peanuts. He knows that it is going to cost him one way or another.

[Kimmi]

Do you remember who wrote that? Was it a sourced statement or just a prediction?

 

I do not remember who wrote it, but it was neither a sourced statement nor a prediction. The writer did not state that Henry was dead set against acquiring someone like Price or that Henry would not approve such a contract, just that his preference is to get a younger, cost-controlled pitcher. Really, that's no secret. That has always been Henry's preference.

 

Where Ben was more reluctant to trade away prospects, I think Henry is more willing to part with them.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Mets would not be certifiable to trade Harvey so long as the return is impressive. They have Wheeler returning to a rotation of DeGrom, Syndergaard, Matz and Niese. If any team could deal a lock down ace and not feel it, it is the Mets. They are losing Murphy and Cespedes in FA. They can replace Murphy with Herrera, but they don't have the bat to replace Cespedes. They will need one more stick and if they can get that in dealing Harvey, they kinda have to look

[a700hitter]

I do not remember who wrote it, but it was neither a sourced statement nor a prediction. The writer did not state that Henry was dead set against acquiring someone like Price or that Henry would not approve such a contract, just that his preference is to get a younger, cost-controlled pitcher. Really, that's no secret. That has always been Henry's preference.

 

Where Ben was more reluctant to trade away prospects, I think Henry is more willing to part with them.

If it wasn't sourced and it wasn't a prediction, on what was he basing his statement?

[jacksonianmarch]

Henry is a businessman. This means he doesn't give a flying f*** about his players, just the results. If the sox deal away every prospect in the minors, but win a title next yr, my guess is he will be the happiest guy in the league. The problem with Ben's philosophy was that it didn't work 2 yrs in a row. Now, he is changing to the polar opposite of Ben. It's called tinkering. If it works, then he will keep doing it. Ben is the guy you hire to rebuild but the guy you fire before you make it to the big time.

[cp176]

Henry is a businessman. This means he doesn't give a flying f*** about his players, just the results. If the sox deal away every prospect in the minors, but win a title next yr, my guess is he will be the happiest guy in the league. The problem with Ben's philosophy was that it didn't work 2 yrs in a row. Now, he is changing to the polar opposite of Ben. It's called tinkering. If it works, then he will keep doing it. Ben is the guy you hire to rebuild but the guy you fire before you make it to the big time.

 

Ben would be the guy you keep in your organization but don't give the keys to the city to. He did a great job at what he does best.

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW MLBTR predicts we sign Cueto and O'Day.

[mvp 78]

No to Cueto please. Too much of an injury risk.

[Kimmi]

If it wasn't sourced and it wasn't a prediction, on what was he basing his statement?

 

I found the article where I read that. It was Carfardo, and here is the pertinent quote:

 

The preference of Red Sox owners would be for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to find an ace via the trade route — an under-30 ace, to satisfy the preferred criteria of the organization.

 

Here is the link if you want to read the article: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/11/06/red-sox-look-for-ace-deck-isn-exactly-stacked/r5iIp53scugSPxAGboDEtO/story.html

 

I don't know what Cafardo is basing his statement on, but I'm guessing he's basing it on the fact that Henry is on record stating many times that his preference is for young, cost-controlled pitchers versus handing out large contracts to pitchers in their 30s. Like I said before, it's no secret as to what Henry prefers.

[Kimmi]

No to Cueto please. Too much of an injury risk.

 

I can see the Sox signing O'Day, but I am not sensing a large interest in Cueto. As you said, too much of an injury risk for the amount of money and years he will cost. I also can't see the Sox giving up their draft pick plus tons of money for Greinke.

 

To me, it sounds like either Price or a trade.

[Palodios]

MLB Trade Rumors also suggests Cueto would cost 115 million/ 5years, whereas Price would cost 215 million/9 years. 100 million is a huge difference in cost, and I'd bet the Red Sox should use the savings in insuring the elbow.

[a700hitter]

I found the article where I read that. It was Carfardo, and here is the pertinent quote:

 

 

 

Here is the link if you want to read the article: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/11/06/red-sox-look-for-ace-deck-isn-exactly-stacked/r5iIp53scugSPxAGboDEtO/story.html

 

I don't know what Cafardo is basing his statement on, but I'm guessing he's basing it on the fact that Henry is on record stating many times that his preference is for young, cost-controlled pitchers versus handing out large contracts to pitchers in their 30s. Like I said before, it's no secret as to what Henry prefers.

Typical of Cafardo. It's just his opinion.

[Elktonnick]

If it is Henry's preference then Cafardo is merely writing something to fill space. Every owner has a preference to get something for little or nothing that goes with out saying. The question is whether that preference becomes a command to his baseball operations staff. If it is then Dombrowski has his hands tied because the number of options are few and the cost will be higher in terms of the talent and ML ready players Boston will have to give up.

[Bellhorn04]

The rumor mill has it that Price is very likely to end up with the Cubs.

[Kimmi]

MLB Trade Rumors also suggests Cueto would cost 115 million/ 5years, whereas Price would cost 215 million/9 years. 100 million is a huge difference in cost, and I'd bet the Red Sox should use the savings in insuring the elbow.

 

That could be the case. If the difference in cost is that significant, I suppose the Sox might sign Cueto. Price's projected deal is almost twice Cueto's projected deal, both in dollars and years. It certainly gives reason to pause.

[Kimmi]

Typical of Cafardo. It's just his opinion.

 

Has Henry not stated that he prefers young, cost-controlled pitchers? That is not just Cafardo's opinion, that is something that Henry has said. Cafardo is not saying that Henry ruled out signing Price to a big contract or that the Sox would definitely be getting a #1 via trade. All he stated was what Henry's preference is, which Henry has made publicly known.

[Kimmi]

If it is Henry's preference then Cafardo is merely writing something to fill space. Every owner has a preference to get something for little or nothing that goes with out saying. The question is whether that preference becomes a command to his baseball operations staff. If it is then Dombrowski has his hands tied because the number of options are few and the cost will be higher in terms of the talent and ML ready players Boston will have to give up.

 

When Henry says his preference is to get a young pitcher via trade, he is not implying that he expects to get something for little or nothing. He knows that it will cost him one way or another. I don't think it was a command given to Dombrowski either, only a statement of his preference.

 

The Sox farm system is deep enough right now that the Sox can afford to given up prospects, some of whom are "blocked" anyway, without hurting the long term outlook of the farm. They can probably afford the prospects more than they can afford the rich contract at the moment.

 

I am all about developing the farm and hoarding those prospects, but this is a time where I think the Sox would be better off making a trade rather than handing out a big contract to a free agent.

[Kimmi]

The rumor mill has it that Price is very likely to end up with the Cubs.

 

If he doesn't stay with the Jays, whom I'm hearing are cutting payroll, then the Cubs make the most sense to me.

[a700hitter]

Has Henry not stated that he prefers young, cost-controlled pitchers? That is not just Cafardo's opinion, that is something that Henry has said. Cafardo is not saying that Henry ruled out signing Price to a big contract or that the Sox would definitely be getting a #1 via trade. All he stated was what Henry's preference is, which Henry has made publicly known.

is there an owner that prefers big ticket free agents to cost controlled aces? Duh. It doesn't mean that you can get them. Cafardo states it like it is from DDs strategy board. He doesn't have a clue what DD will do any more than we do at this point.

[Kimmi]

is there an owner that prefers big ticket free agents to cost controlled aces? Duh. It doesn't mean that you can get them. Cafardo states it like it is from DDs strategy board. He doesn't have a clue what DD will do any more than we do at this point.

 

There are owners who prefer signing big ticket free agents rather than trading away their prospects. They would rather give up "just money" rather than giving up propects plus money. I'm sure there are several owners who would rather have Price than Carrasco, for instance.

 

Cafardo was simply stating what Henry's preference is. He did not say that the Sox would definitely go that route nor did he rule out the other route.

[a700hitter]

There are owners who prefer signing big ticket free agents rather than trading away their prospects. They would rather give up "just money" rather than giving up propects plus money. I'm sure there are several owners who would rather have Price than Carrasco, for instance.

 

Cafardo was simply stating what Henry's preference is. He did not say that the Sox would definitely go that route nor did he rule out the other route.

Cafardo was filling space. As for your assertion that there are owners who would rather pay big free agent money for an ace instead of getting a cost controlled ace for prospects, I would consider those owners to be morons.

[Kimmi]

Cafardo was filling space. As for your assertion that there are owners who would rather pay big free agent money for an ace instead of getting a cost controlled ace for prospects, I would consider those owners to be morons.

 

It all depends on what the costs end up being. If it's going to strip the farm to get a young stud for about 3 years, then hundreds of millions of dollars to try to extend that stud, signing the free agent for "just money" might be the preference for some teams.