The search for an ace

[vjcsmoke]

They are the under 5'"10 versions of Lynn, Rice, and Evans. Those guys were specimens. We have a disproportionate number of small players. Is that something the scouts look for these days? Personally, that body-type would be a negative for me in scouting anything other than middle infielders. I want small agile middle infielders. I am not a big believer in outfielders under 5'10".

 

Any reason why? I feel that range and throwing arm are the most important factor for good outfielders.

Should we trade Mookie Betts just because he's only 5'9?

[Dojji]

No, not when they're that young. But when they hit the late 30's those little guys tend to deteriorate faster than full sized players. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these guys had great years and the team turned around and sold high.

[sk7326]

Any reason why? I feel that range and throwing arm are the most important factor for good outfielders.

Should we trade Mookie Betts just because he's only 5'9?

 

No - because that would be stupid. He is a terrific athlete. That is really the common thread of the guys the Sox are acquiring. These are all good athletes who would be effective in other sports (assuming they had the training). The height is somewhat incidental.

[sk7326]

No, not when they're that young. But when they hit the late 30's those little guys tend to deteriorate faster than full sized players. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these guys had great years and the team turned around and sold high.

 

All players deteriorate by their mid-late 30s, where things like approach and knowing how to play baseball has to trump athletic skills - shocking. Even Pedroia - over whose hands you continually wring - got 8 good seasons! That's a good number for anybody. And Pedroia is going to end up with a near 3 win season despite all the injury time.

 

That is the funny thing about Pedroia - trying to usher him out the door when he has slipped from one of the best players in the league vs merely one of the best second basemen.

[Dojji]

I didn't say otherwise. It's not a controversial point that small guys deteriorate FASTER as they age than normal guys. Why you think that means I'm aghast over the fact that players deteriorate at all is a statement against either my ability to communicate or your ability to read English, probably the latter.

[a700hitter]

Any reason why? I feel that range and throwing arm are the most important factor for good outfielders.

Should we trade Mookie Betts just because he's only 5'9?

If they want a power stick in their outfield, they will need to look at bigger players.

[Dojji]

I think it's more important to load up on speed and OBP. Power leaguewide is recovering a bit but is still down compared to the last few decades. Get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in, seems to be the way good teams are playing in this era.

[a700hitter]

I think it's more important to load up on speed and OBP. Power leaguewide is recovering a bit but is still down compared to the last few decades. Get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in, seems to be the way good teams are playing in this era.

That may be the way to go. Ortiz is 40 next season and our only legit power bat. I expect HanRam will be gone. I think it is good to have a big power bat to anchor a lineup.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it's more important to load up on speed and OBP. Power leaguewide is recovering a bit but is still down compared to the last few decades. Get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in, seems to be the way good teams are playing in this era.

 

Have things really changed that much? Seems to me a balanced attack is still what you want. OBP, speed and some power. The Jays have the best offense in baseball and the home runs are certainly a big part of it. (They also lead the majors in OBP.)

[sk7326]

Things have not changed - baserunners are the name of the game. 3-run homers are still optimal, but you can work around that some. You don't want outs - period. Manufacturing runs has always been largely bunk - at least if you intend to score more than a couple. With or without the 3-run homers, you still want those bases clogged.

 

That said, Boston is 8th in the AL in HRs, 3rd in OBP and 3rd in runs ... so the homeruns are not a requirement (this was the profile of the 2007 team also). What HAS happened though is a large jump in doubles - from dead last to 4th in the league. I do think for Boston specifically - that is sustainable. We know Fenway is not a great homerun park, but it is a great doubles one and so a team of gap hitting can get pretty far too.

Edited September 18, 2015 by sk7326

[cp176]

If they want a power stick in their outfield, they will need to look at bigger players.

 

 

i agree with you. It is nice to have at least one or two guys who look like they have some power.

[a700hitter]

i agree with you. It is nice to have at least one or two guys who look like they have some power.

I think Betts is a terrific ballplayer. Bradley and Castillo look like good ballplayers too, but to load up a team with little guys is a questionable strategy imo, especially since we don't have any major power sticks around the IF.

[Dojji]

Things have not changed - baserunners are the name of the game. 3-run homers are still optimal, but you can work around that some. You don't want outs - period. Manufacturing runs has always been largely bunk - at least if you intend to score more than a couple. With or without the 3-run homers, you still want those bases clogged.

 

That said, Boston is 8th in the AL in HRs, 3rd in OBP and 3rd in runs ... so the homeruns are not a requirement (this was the profile of the 2007 team also). What HAS happened though is a large jump in doubles - from dead last to 4th in the league. I do think for Boston specifically - that is sustainable. We know Fenway is not a great homerun park, but it is a great doubles one and so a team of gap hitting can get pretty far too.

 

Exactly. Fenway is a mediocre fly ball park but the best line drive park in the league. Players with good eyes and top of the line bat control tend to be a lot more effective here than all or nothing guys.

[Orange Juiced]

The starting pitching has been very good the last month and a half. Everyone is making a case for being in the 2016 rotation.

 

Rodriguez - 3.97 era, nasty stuff, just has been really solid

Miley - last 19 starts: 126.2 ip (6.2 per start), 3.91 era, 1.26 whip

Porcello - last 10 starts: 62.1 ip (6.0 per start), 3.47 era, 1.33 whip

Kelly - last 8 starts before getting hurt: 2.35 era, 1.26 whip

Owens - last 6 starts, including one gigantic stink bomb against NY: 3.60 era, 1.26 whip

Hill - just two starts, but my goodness: 7.0 ip per start, 1.93 era, 0.64 whip, 12.9 k/9

 

So all the starters have been doing well recently. I still want a true ace for next year, but they are looking like they'll have quality depth. And this list, of course, doesn't even include Buchholz.

[Dojji]

Yeah you want a top guy but it's nice to see the rotation starting to put it back together I wonder how much this coincidede with the return of Ryan Hanigan from his early season injury

[sk7326]

I think shopping for Harvey or Sale will be on their list. But otherwise, yes the starting pitching is competitive. The team has played well the last 2 months - and at least on the lineup side, that looks sustainable.

 

As far as who gets deals? Betts and Bogaerts are untouchable. Bogaerts looks like he's going to be a rock solid player - where the only question is whether the ceiling is All-Star or MVP level. Betts has done everything you'd expect a superstar to do relative to his age. Swihart would be close to untouchable if the Sox did not have a really solid alternative in house.

 

Everybody else is some form of negotiable. That said, on the farm Devers, Moncada, Espinoza and Benintendi in limited run have all shown a lot of signs of having star+ level in them. They would be hard to let go. Margot has admirers across the league too - but the Red Sox have a lot of centerfielders, and Margot could help a trade along.

[Behindenemylines]

Lets hope the Sox learned their lesson from the failed attempt last off season in getting a true number 1. I kind of think the trade route, over throwing big $$$$$ at a FA is the way to go for the Sox.

[Northern Star]

Harvey is an absolute stud. Just 25, big-time pitcher, still relatively inexpensive, because he'll not be a FA, but will enter his arbitration years.

 

So why do the Mets want to deal him?

[a700hitter]

So why do the Mets want to deal him?

The Mets have three other all star stud pitchers - deGrom, Syndegard, and Matz. They also have Wheeler. Harvey is the closest to Arbitration and Free Agency and the word on the inside is that the relationship between Harvey and the Mets FO is irreparable.

[Spudboy]

Okay call me Dojji for my unorthodox idea but I would like to see the Sox sign Lackey for 2/35-40 and then go after Price and pay him whatever it takes.

 

It won't happen but I think Lackey has plenty left in the tank.

 

If my idea is executed and the Sox get two or three quality arms for the pen then it would be time to que the Duck Boats!

[sk7326]

Okay call me Dojji for my unorthodox idea but I would like to see the Sox sign Lackey for 2/35-40 and then go after Price and pay him whatever it takes.

 

It won't happen but I think Lackey has plenty left in the tank.

 

If my idea is executed and the Sox get two or three quality arms for the pen then it would be time to que the Duck Boats!

 

Bringing back Lackey is a totally reasonable idea.

[GomesBeard]

The talk of trading Harvey has calmed quite a bit in the last week, as he told the manager to pitch him as he needs to get ready for the play-offs. Oh, and he pitched great the other night, too. That never hurts. I do think he burned some bridges with the team and fans when he left Boras speak for him earlier this month, but he was kind of caught in the middle (although he is the boss of Boras, ultimately). That's one down-side of trading for him.

 

Most folks here thought that Bogaerts-for-Harvey straight up might get it done. I would endorse that trade. Having watched Harvey pitch for the past few years, I like his stuff and attitude. It is very Clemens-like in that he will battle you to the death, regardless of what he has that night. The anti-Clay, if you will. He's a leader on the team and is a bit flashy as well. I really like him, regardless of the TJ. And it's said that the second season back from the TJ is usually when they fully recover.

 

Looking at FA pitchers, beyond Price and Zimmerman, and maybe Cueto, the list is pretty empty of #1/#2 types.

[GomesBeard]

Bringing back Lackey is a totally reasonable idea.

 

Not sure where he fits in, unless you package a couple of the current guys in a trade (Miley, Hill, ?) -

 

- FA/Trade (Price, Harvey, etc)

- Buchholz

- Porcello

- Kelly

- E-Rod

- Owens

 

There's a decent rotation there with some depth.

[sk7326]

Not sure where he fits in, unless you package a couple of the current guys in a trade (Miley, Hill, ?) -

 

- FA/Trade (Price, Harvey, etc)

- Buchholz

- Porcello

- Kelly

- E-Rod

- Owens

 

There's a decent rotation there with some depth.

 

Actually the rotation as is the last 2 months has been legitimately "decent" ...

[a700hitter]

Not sure where he fits in, unless you package a couple of the current guys in a trade (Miley, Hill, ?) -

 

- FA/Trade (Price, Harvey, etc)

- Buchholz

- Porcello

- Kelly

- E-Rod

- Owens

 

There's a decent rotation there with some depth.

^ That will not be enough.

[cp176]

^ That will not be enough.

 

I understand people wanting to continue to hang on to Buccholtz. I am not one of them but I do understand it. He continues to be all about the potential. As for Kelly, once again looks like another potential arm when healthy. I am just not into reclamation projects or hanging on to players who cannot stay on the field. For a while now the rotation has looked decent without them. If the team does what should have been done last year (1 or 2 quality starters} via trade or free agency they will not be needed. If kelly would consider pitching out of the bullpen, maybe he should be kept around.

1. free agent or trade

2. E - Rod

3. Porcello

4. Miley

5. Owens

 

I would like to see 2 pitchers added but I could live with that. I realize the concern about 2 young ones in the rotation but their audition has been pretty good plus they appear healthy and ready to go. Injuries are part of the game in any sport but when over the long haul, a person spends more time on the dl than on the field, it just is time to move on.

[Orange Juiced]

Actually the rotation as is the last 2 months has been legitimately "decent" ...

 

Much, much better than "decent". As I posted in another thread, here are their starters' ERA post-ASB:

 

Hill: 3 g, 1.17 era

Porcello: 10 g, 3.64 era

Kelly: 11 g, 3.77 era

Owens: 10 g, 3.84 era

Miley: 13 g, 3.92 era

Wright: 5 g, 3.99 era

Rodriguez: 13 g, 4.04 era

[a700hitter]

Much, much better than "decent". As I posted in another thread, here are their starters' ERA post-ASB:

 

Hill: 3 g, 1.17 era

Porcello: 10 g, 3.64 era

Kelly: 11 g, 3.77 era

Owens: 10 g, 3.84 era

Miley: 13 g, 3.92 era

Wright: 5 g, 3.99 era

Rodriguez: 13 g, 4.04 era

If I thought that this would be next season's rotation, I'd make the 2017 Red Sox Hot Stove Thread right now.

[sk7326]

One of the funny things is that the Red Sox look like they are going to finish with a record which is - probably what 3 or 4 games - within range of what a normal person would have predicted for this team entering the season.

 

What is heartening is that the players and coaches did not quit on the season and have provided a couple of months of entertaining, damn good baseball ... there is stuff to fix (and the cupboard is very full as far as ways to go about doing so), but there is a strong foundation (and that probably understates the status of the everyday lineup).

[cp176]

If I thought that this would be next season's rotation, I'd make the 2017 Red Sox Hot Stove Thread right now.

 

 

They need two. I would be surprised more than last year for sure if they don't pick up at least one and still think they will sign two.