2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Jenrry Mejia Gets Lifetime Ban After Third Positive PED Test. What an idiot!

 

No kidding.

[Kimmi]

In truth I don't really disagree very much with any of what you're saying. I just always seem to find a counterpoint I can argue, the devil's advocate thing.

 

I think I also have a tendency to look at things from the manager's perspective, to assume he's got some sort of thought process behind what he's doing.

 

When it comes to most in game decisions, including use of relievers, I usually will give the manager the benefit of the doubt, even if I disagree with what they're doing. They are far better equipped to make such decisions than I am.

 

That said, I think that some of their decisions are based on philosophies that are not statistically supported.

 

For instance, I read this morning that the Sox attempted 30 sac bunts last last season. What??? That's at least 25 too many. I knew that the team was using the sac bunt far too often, I just didn't realize how often. As I posted before, this is something that I will be watching for this season. I may even start a thread titled "Games Farrell Has Cost the Team by Sacrificing".

[Bellhorn04]

When it comes to most in game decisions, including use of relievers, I usually will give the manager the benefit of the doubt, even if I disagree with what they're doing. They are far better equipped to make such decisions than I am.

 

That said, I think that some of their decisions are based on philosophies that are not statistically supported.

 

For instance, I read this morning that the Sox attempted 30 sac bunts last last season. What??? That's at least 25 too many. I knew that the team was using the sac bunt far too often, I just didn't realize how often. As I posted before, this is something that I will be watching for this season. I may even start a thread titled "Games Farrell Has Cost the Team by Sacrificing".

 

So you're saying that over the course of the season, the maximum number of situations that call for a sac bunt are 5?

[Kimmi]

How are you getting that info? I'm intrigued.

 

I'm not sure exactly what info you are referring to, but if you mean the leverage index for each base/out state in the game, I have provided a link to the data.

 

This link comes with the caveat that this table was first published in 2006. Since run expectancy changes as the scoring environment changes, so does the leverage index. However, the leverage index should not be that much different than it is in the chart, and the relative importance of each situation remains the same.

 

If you're the away team and you're up by one run, with 0 outs and runners on 1st and 2nd in the 8th inning, the LI is 4.1. In the 9th inning with 0 outs and no runners on, the LI index is 2.9.

 

If you're the home team with the same situations, the LIs are 4.4 and 3.6, respectively.

 

Your best reliever should be pitching in that 8th inning situation, not being saved until the 9th inning.

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml

[Kimmi]

So you're saying that over the course of the season, the maximum number of situations that call for a sac bunt are 5?

 

Yes, this is what I'm saying.

 

I honestly don't know the exact number of times a sac bunt would be called for. It may be a few more than five in some seasons. Regardless, the sac bunt is still grossly misused by AL managers.

 

It should be used late in the game (8th or 9th inning, possibly 7th sometimes), with 0 outs and a runner on 2nd base, with a relatively weak hitter coming to the plate, when one run is needed. How often throughout the season does that situation come up?

[Kimmi]

Jenrry Mejia Gets Lifetime Ban After Third Positive PED Test. What an idiot!

 

That is exactly what I posted on another site.

 

What could this dude possibly be thinking after the first two times he was caught?

[Thunder]

That is exactly what I posted on another site.

 

What could this dude possibly be thinking after the first two times he was caught?

 

"There's no way they would possibly think to test me again."

[Kimmi]

"There's no way they would possibly think to test me again."

 

What is the rule on testing anyway?

 

Isn't anyone who tests positive once automatically tested more frequently?

[Spudboy]

What is the rule on testing anyway?

 

Isn't anyone who tests positive once automatically tested more frequently?

 

One would think so. In any case the agent and attorney for that player should know or at least prioritize knowing about the tests.

 

My guess is this guy is just f***ing stupid.

[a700hitter]

One would think so. In any case the agent and attorney for that player should know or at least prioritize knowing about the tests. My guess is this guy is just f***ing stupid.

The guy is just an idiot.

[sk7326]

Yes, this is what I'm saying.

 

I honestly don't know the exact number of times a sac bunt would be called for. It may be a few more than five in some seasons. Regardless, the sac bunt is still grossly misused by AL managers.

 

It should be used late in the game (8th or 9th inning, possibly 7th sometimes), with 0 outs and a runner on 2nd base, with a relatively weak hitter coming to the plate, when one run is needed. How often throughout the season does that situation come up?

 

Obviously these are "non-pitcher" sacrifices ... as a general rule, the sacrifice can increase your probability of getting 1 run, while reducing the likelihood of getting more. That limits the situations a lot. There are almost no situations where the "expected runs scored" is better with an additional out.

 

I think last year the A's (of course) led the way with only 14 sacrifices all season. The Red Sox 30 was 21st ... Even the World Champion Royals were 19th with 34 sacrifice bunts. For a team with their bat control, you can get a lot of the work of a sacrifice done without bunting - with at least a shot at a hit.

Edited February 16, 2016 by sk7326

[Thunder]

Let's not overlook the fact that this guy also has a very serious addiction, or so it appears. This is a very serious matter. The only thing one can really do at this point is to pray that he receives the best help, and gets over it. It's similar to all this Johnny Manziel stuff, or even Josh Gordon (no wonder why the Browns are so dysfunctional). Both are incredible talents, but they're reoccurring problems have always been ignored. Now, it's caught up to them, and costing them their lives, never mind their careers, and they're helpless. As a relatively decent human being, I'd like to hope that Meija doesn't fall down the chute. Granted, he's not a huge star, but the same kind of helpless addiction is what killed Tony Gwynn.

[mvp 78]

Are you stating that he's addicted to PEDs? You are also equating the use of PEDs to alcoholism, weed and chewing tobacco?

[Kimmi]

It's PECOTA day!

 

PECOTA has the Sox winning 88 games, good enough for the 3rd best record in the AL, but coming in 2nd in the division behind the Rays.

 

Very interesting.

 

USA Today predicts the Sox to win the division with 88 wins.

[Kimmi]

Obviously these are "non-pitcher" sacrifices ... as a general rule, the sacrifice can increase your probability of getting 1 run, while reducing the likelihood of getting more. That limits the situations a lot. There are almost no situations where the "expected runs scored" is better with an additional out.

 

I think last year the A's (of course) led the way with only 14 sacrifices all season. The Red Sox 30 was 21st ... Even the World Champion Royals were 19th with 34 sacrifice bunts. For a team with their bat control, you can get a lot of the work of a sacrifice done without bunting - with at least a shot at a hit.

 

Glad to see you posting again SK. I always enjoy your posts.

[Thunder]

It's PECOTA day!

 

PECOTA has the Sox winning 88 games, good enough for the 3rd best record in the AL, but coming in 2nd in the division behind the Rays.

 

Very interesting.

 

USA Today predicts the Sox to win the division with 88 wins.

 

I disagree with most of the PECOTA picks for division winners. Tampa has to be the lest likely team to win the East in my mind, and I don't know if the Guardians are ready to get past KC yet, even though they are rising quickly. Astros? Sure, because the rest of the West looks down this year. The only division in the NL I disagree with is the West. Scully's swan song won't propel the Dodgers to 1st. Watch out for the Arizona Fightin' Greinkeschmidts.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think it's Toronto-NYY-Boston-TB-Baltimore. Baltimore has no rotation, so they fall out. Tampa has the rotation and should be a near .500 team if their new acquisitions give them anything. They are scary in that if their offense does show life and Longoria actually remembers who he is, they have a LOT of upside. Boston leaps over the two, but as is, they aren't a front running team. They need at least another SP and maybe another OFer. The Yankees I have in the 2 slot and another wild card berth, IF THEY STAY HEALTHY, which we know is a big if. Toronto is missing Price and Buerhle, but Sanchez and Stroman are scary good and should only get better.

[a700hitter]

[h=2]Red Sox Sign Carlos Marmol To Minor League Deal[/h] By Steve Adams | February 16, 2016 at 4:03pm CST

The Red Sox announced today that they’ve signed right-hander Carlos Marmol to a minor league deal with an invite to Major League Spring Training. He’ll compete for a spot alongside Koji Uehara and Carson Smith as a right-handed setup option for Craig Kimbrel.

Marmol, 33, made a name for himself as the Cubs’ closer from 2009-12, posting gaudy strikeout numbers that helped to cover up highly suspect control. In that stretch, Marmol saved 107 games and recorded a 3.33 ERA with 12.9 K/9 but a woeful 6.7 BB/9 rate. As Marmol’s strikeout rate dipped, so too did his effectiveness. Marmol averaged a sky-high 7.3 walks per nine innings in 2012 and repeated that number in a 2013 season that was split between the Cubs and Dodgers. His last Major League action came in 2014, when he tossed 13 1/3 innings with the Marlins. That season, Marmol yielded an 8.10 ERA and posted a 14-to-10 K/BB ratio before the club cut ties with him.

Marmol spent the 2015 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, where he posted a brilliant 2.03 ERA in 31 innings but showed the same control issues that have plagued him throughout his career, walking 27 batters in those 31 frames (albeit, against an impressive 48 strikeouts). The problem continued in the Dominican Winter League, where he walked a dozen hitters in seven innings. It’s unlikely that he’ll ever take a meaningful step forward in terms of control, but Marmol’s penchant for missing bats means he’ll likely continue to get opportunities, at least as a depth option.

 

He has a live arm, but he is a trainwreck.

[Thunder]

I don't expect Marmol to last very long. From the viewpoint of my naked eye, Dombrowski doesn't really like wild cards. He got rid of Dontrelle Willis in Detroit just before he spiraled into oblivion, and I've always associated Willis with Marmol and Zambrano, especially the latter, but the point still stands.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't expect Marmol to last very long. From the viewpoint of my naked eye, Dombrowski doesn't really like wild cards. He got rid of Dontrelle Willis in Detroit just before he spiraled into oblivion, and I've always associated Willis with Marmol and Zambrano, especially the latter, but the point still stands.

 

You sound a lot older now.

[mvp 78]

If Marmol can still crank it up in the upper 90's, might as well give him a shot. No real downside to this move.

[Kimmi]

I disagree with most of the PECOTA picks for division winners. Tampa has to be the lest likely team to win the East in my mind, and I don't know if the Guardians are ready to get past KC yet, even though they are rising quickly. Astros? Sure, because the rest of the West looks down this year. The only division in the NL I disagree with is the West. Scully's swan song won't propel the Dodgers to 1st. Watch out for the Arizona Fightin' Greinkeschmidts.

 

PECOTA apparently really likes Tampa's defense, which is why they are projected so high.

 

I like the Tribe in the Central.

[a700hitter]

[h=2]Orioles Sign Yovani Gallardo[/h]By Brad Johnson | February 20, 2016 at 5:49pm CST

The Orioles have agreed to sign Yovani Gallardoto a three-year, $33MM deal with a $13MM club option for 2019. He will be paid $9MM in 2016, $11MM in 2017, and $13MM in 2018. The 2019 option comes with a $2MM buyout, pushing the total guarantee to $35MM. The deal is pending a physical and does not include a no trade clause. The only incentives are small bonuses for awards (tweet).

Gallardo owns a career 3.66 ERA, 8.23 K/9, and 3.31 BB/9 across parts of nine major league seasons. After spending the bulk of his career with the Brewers, Gallardo was traded to the Rangers prior to 2015. He posted another solid campaign with a 3.42 ERA, although ERA estimators were less enthused by his work (4.00 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, 4.59 SIERA). It was his most contact oriented season – he had a career low 5.91 K/9 and 6.5 percent swinging strike rate.

The Orioles rotation was among the worst in the league last season, making Gallardo an important addition. While he’s not a traditional ace, he does have plenty of experience pitching in other bandbox ball parks. Milwaukee’s Miller Park and Texas’s Globe Life Park are two of the most home run friendly stadiums. So too is Camden Yards.

Interestingly, Baltimore inked Gallardo for substantially less than the Royals paid for Ian Kennedy. Both pitchers were expected to have similar difficulties on the free agent market. The former Padres starter is a year older than Gallardo. The two starters are comparably talented but Kennedy has the more inconsistent track record. Of course, Kennedy’s complicated deal is backloaded and includes an opt out after just two seasons, making an apples-to-apples comparison difficult. Kennedy also has a history of high strikeout rates while Gallardo is more of pitch-to-contact guy.

When the Rangers tagged Gallardo with the qualifying offer, some believed he should have accepted it. While the soon-to-be 30-year-old had a long wait to find a new home – pitchers and catchers have already reported to Orioles camp – Gallardo ultimately secured nearly three times the qualifying offer which was valued at $15.8MM this offseason. He’ll now be under contract through at least his age 32 season with a chance to return to the market in either 2019 or 2020.

The Orioles will lose the 14th overall pick in the 2016 draft as a result of the signing. The slot value of the pick is $2.97MM. The Orioles also have the 28th overall pick which they received as compensation for losing Wei-Yin Chen. However, they would also lose that pick if they sign Dexter Fowler.

I would prefer Gallardo at this contract than Porcello at his extension.

[mvp 78]

I would prefer Gallardo at this contract than Porcello at his extension.

 

Loss of 1st rounder too?

[a700hitter]

Loss of 1st rounder too?

Hmmm..., but isn't our first rounder protected this year?

[User Name]

Gallardo's not getting any younger, and his velocity and K/9 are quickly regressing too. No thanks.

[a700hitter]

Gallardo's not getting any younger, and his velocity and K/9 are quickly regressing too. No thanks.

Better than Porcello at half the price.

[User Name]

I'm willing to bet they both suck equally hard next year, or Porcello un-sucks and pitches like a fringe #3.

[a700hitter]

I'm willing to bet they both suck equally hard next year, or Porcello un-sucks and pitches like a fringe #3.

I don't disagree, but I don't think Porcello's 2016 will be twice the value of Gallardo's season.

[Northern Star]

I would prefer Gallardo at this contract than Porcello at his extension.

 

That's hardly saying anything. Most of us would prefer a lot of pitchers at current contracts over Porcello at $20 mil. #thanksBen