2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[mvp 78]

I think it was actually. Second or third, after he had the hip issue.

 

His second year was 07 when he was an all star. He got the hip issue at the end of 08 (3rd year) and missed the playoffs. He was still the starter in 09. He became the backup in 10, the last year (numero five-oh) of his deal.

[Bellhorn04]

According to The Hardball Times, if you take out the bottom of the 9th inning (due to selection bias), the leverage index increases slightly in the 7th and 8th innings, then drops in the top of the 9th.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/leverage-index-by-inning/

 

Also, I have read that, statistically, the meat of the order comes up more often in the 8th inning while the 6-9 guys come up more often in the 9th, but intuitively, that doesn't make sense to me. I haven't been able to verify that one way or the other.

 

I agree with you completely. Why worry about saving your best reliever for a situation that might never materialize when you are facing a crisis in the 8th inning?

 

Kimmi, the numbers in this article are averages for all games including blowouts. The inclusion of blowouts is why the average leverage factor goes down slightly in the top of the 9th.

 

If it's a one-run game, the leverage factor will be higher in the top of the 9th than in the top of the 8th.

[User Name]

His second year was 07 when he was an all star. He got the hip issue at the end of 08 (3rd year) and missed the playoffs. He was still the starter in 09. He became the backup in 10, the last year (numero five-oh) of his deal.

 

I thought you meant after the contract he signed after the '07 WS.

[User Name]

currently Swihart would alone be worth very little in a trade. Packaged with others maybe but alone sorry. I suppose moving him to another position is a possibility but how does anyone know that we don't have better options certainly at first and third. Sam travis I am guessing will surprise you all and he will be every bit as good a hitter as Swihart. At third or first Travis Shaw has and probably will in the future provide more of a power source than Swihart ever will. Don't get me wrong, I like Swihart. I just do not see him being the important piece to this puzzle that others do. He will be a decent player for us if he stays in Boston. We have others that might actually be better.

 

A young catcher with good tools and a bat already bordering on league average? Swihart has massive upside and would bring significant value in a trade. I don't know how you can come to any other conclusion.

[cp176]

I'm cheering for him believe me. I just don't see other clubs buying into what he did over the second half of last season as being a big enough sample size to encourage them to take a big risk and give us much for him alone in a trade. Maybe later on this season.

[User Name]

Teams don't buy a young guy based on a couple of AB's/IP. They buy based on tools and upside, and Swihart has plenty of those.

[jacksonianmarch]

UN?, they'll buy the bat. The glove concern is what will hold back his potential return. If this kid comes into 2016 showing the skills of an average big league catcher defensively, his worth will soar. Currently, his stock is hurt by the rumblings that he could be a 1b in waiting

[cp176]

We will have to wait and see I guess. He has a lot of things going for him. Do you think that our front office has been fielding offers for him? Maybe they have and maybe they haven't. It seems likely that we would have heard something if they had.

[Station 13]

trading Swihart would be a disaster. Who would start for us?

1. Hannigan isn't a regular

2. Vazquez has not play an MLB game since September 2014

[Station 13]

UN?, they'll buy the bat. The glove concern is what will hold back his potential return. If this kid comes into 2016 showing the skills of an average big league catcher defensively, his worth will soar. Currently, his stock is hurt by the rumblings that he could be a 1b in waiting

 

1b with minimal power? I don't see him playing 1B unless he absolutely rakes. And this talk of him playing 1B is utter nonsense. Give the kid 1-2 more year before writing him off at catching.

[cp176]

trading Swihart would be a disaster. Who would start for us?

1. Hannigan isn't a regular

2. Vazquez has not play an MLB game since September 2014

 

I don't think that anyone is really advocating for him to be traded. Debate seems to be centered around how much value he would have as a stand alone trade candidate. I like the kid but I just don't see him bring ing in anything substantial just yet as a potential trade candidate. He has a lot of things going for him that might change that perspective as this season moves along.

[cp176]

1b with minimal power? I don't see him playing 1B unless he absolutely rakes. And this talk of him playing 1B is utter nonsense. Give the kid 1-2 more year before writing him off at catching.

 

I think that you are right. A good potential rising star but has he shown at this point in time enough power to encourage anybody to trade for him and take a shot that he might be decent at first or third? I don't think so. I would give Shaw a real shot long before I would even consider attempting to change Swihart's position. The Red Sox are much better off hanging on to him right now. He gets his chance. I don't think DD will give him away. Not to mention the fact that he might be our starting catcher for many, many years.

[Dojji]

I think it was actually. Second or third, after he had the hip issue.

 

Of course that was after he hung on so long playing through the hip issue (despite the presence of Youkilis who could have covered for him while he got the medical attention he needed!) that he completely destroyed his ability to play baseball going forward.

 

IIRC that year Lowell first started showing problems relatively early in the campaign, June I want to say. He was still hitting but it was plain to see that the guy had lost a couple steps in the field, and Lowell was never exactly quick to begin with.

 

If he'd gotten the surgical attention he needed he may have been back in time for the playoffs. Instead one of our better players was useless to us in the playoffs that year and was really never the same again. I can understand every step of the logic chain that led us to that point but it was still incredibly frustrating to watch.

[Dojji]

His second year was 07 when he was an all star. He got the hip issue at the end of 08 (3rd year) and missed the playoffs. He was still the starter in 09. He became the backup in 10, the last year (numero five-oh) of his deal.

 

Yeah but he had injury problems all through 09 too, I want to say he had a big issue with the knee. He could still hit in 08 and 09, but his defense took a sharp downhill turn, going from a decent 3B before 09 to a catastrophe in 09, to barely playing 3B at all in his final year with the team.

[mvp 78]

I thought you meant after the contract he signed after the '07 WS.

 

So the final year of his 3 year extension? Yeah the Sox ate $12M. The Sox would do that in the final year of Sandoval, but not in year 2.

[mvp 78]

Yeah but he had injury problems all through 09 too, I want to say he had a big issue with the knee. He could still hit in 08 and 09, but his defense took a sharp downhill turn, going from a decent 3B before 09 to a catastrophe in 09, to barely playing 3B at all in his final year with the team.

 

He started 10 as a platoon DH as Papi was starting slow. Injuries just piled up too quickly on him. my second favorite Sox 3b. (Bill Mueller FTW)

[sk7326]

Really, what you have is two forces working together.

 

1. The 9th inning is not special. Leverage is a little higher - but fundamentally, the job of getting 3 outs without allowing a run entering a game with the bases empty is not especially difficult.

 

2. Workers like to understand their job function. Pitching in the 9th is a job - not the most difficult on the staff, but a distinct one. It is hard to shuffle roles and I do think that the bullpen jobs are not 100% substitutable.

 

So - essentially having a "closer" is critical. But that closer does not have to be your best reliever. You look at the long, long, long line of mediocre pitchers who have done that job adequately (Mike Williams, Doug Jones, Heathcliff Slocumb, Joel Hanrahan) and that should tell you something.

 

It is one of the interesting pieces of the Kimbrel acquisition that will be tricky. Neither Kimbrel nor Uehara are guys who you feel comfortable giving larger, more variable workloads. They both should be very effective - but they both will probably need specific targeted work. Farrell will have to use Tazawa and Smith to help organize the game to facilitate things for both of them. It is a little harder than the normal bullpen juggling. Fortunately both pitchers are very capable.

[User Name]

Really, what you have is two forces working together.

 

1. The 9th inning is not special. Leverage is a little higher - but fundamentally, the job of getting 3 outs without allowing a run entering a game with the bases empty is not especially difficult.

 

2. Workers like to understand their job function. Pitching in the 9th is a job - not the most difficult on the staff, but a distinct one. It is hard to shuffle roles and I do think that the bullpen jobs are not 100% substitutable.

 

So - essentially having a "closer" is critical. But that closer does not have to be your best reliever. You look at the long, long, long line of mediocre pitchers who have done that job adequately (Mike Williams, Doug Jones, Heathcliff Slocumb, Joel Hanrahan) and that should tell you something.

 

It is one of the interesting pieces of the Kimbrel acquisition that will be tricky. Neither Kimbrel nor Uehara are guys who you feel comfortable giving larger, more variable workloads. They both should be very effective - but they both will probably need specific targeted work. Farrell will have to use Tazawa and Smith to help organize the game to facilitate things for both of them. It is a little harder than the normal bullpen juggling. Fortunately both pitchers are very capable.

 

I made both these points earlier and completely agree with you.

[mvp 78]

I made both these points earlier and completely agree with you.

 

I'm fine with Taz pitching anywhere 6-8 as needed. Uehara should be the setup guy and Kimbrell should be the closer.

[User Name]

Smith and Tazawa are going to be used with that exact setup in mind, and I wholeheartedly agree with that strategy.

[Kimmi]

I agree, but again it's a case where the manager can't do this as much as he'd like to. Otherwise the closer will get burned out. It's a long season.

 

I think Dojji made a good point. If you don't have more than 2 relievers you can trust to put up zeros consistently you're pretty much screwed no matter what you do. If you have a bullpen like KC you have a guy like Herrera you can bring in for one of those 7th inning jams, and you still have a Madson and a Davis out there behind him.

 

I don't think this is something that will occur so often that the closer will get burned out. Besides, closers used to pitch multiple innings all the time. They should be able to handle it from time to time. And if a manager is worried about overusing his closer, let him pitch the team out of the critical situation in the 8th, then bring in your next best reliever for the 9th.

 

I agree that the pen has to have several good relievers. If all the relievers are roughly equally good, it should not matter. But I know we've all seen lesser relievers brought into a game to pitch out of a jam (for one reason or another), while the closer sits on the bench, waiting for a 9th inning save that may or may not happen. That should not happen.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, the numbers in this article are averages for all games including blowouts. The inclusion of blowouts is why the average leverage factor goes down slightly in the top of the 9th.

 

If it's a one-run game, the leverage factor will be higher in the top of the 9th than in the top of the 8th.

 

If it's a one run game, I agree that the leverage factor will be higher in the 9th, provided that the base/out states are the same. However, if there are two on with no outs in a one run game in the 8th, the leverage factor will be higher than if you have no runners on with no outs in the 9th.

[Kimmi]

Another silly reason why closers have to pitch the 9th is to get that "save" stat. Their salaries, unfortunately, are often largely based on how many saves they have.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think this is something that will occur so often that the closer will get burned out. Besides, closers used to pitch multiple innings all the time. They should be able to handle it from time to time. And if a manager is worried about overusing his closer, let him pitch the team out of the critical situation in the 8th, then bring in your next best reliever for the 9th.

 

I agree that the pen has to have several good relievers. If all the relievers are roughly equally good, it should not matter. But I know we've all seen lesser relievers brought into a game to pitch out of a jam (for one reason or another), while the closer sits on the bench, waiting for a 9th inning save that may or may not happen. That should not happen.

 

In truth I don't really disagree very much with any of what you're saying. I just always seem to find a counterpoint I can argue, the devil's advocate thing.

 

I think I also have a tendency to look at things from the manager's perspective, to assume he's got some sort of thought process behind what he's doing.

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball seems to be the only sport where fans and analysts keep thinking of all these ways to build a better mousetrap.

[SoxHop]

If it's a one run game, I agree that the leverage factor will be higher in the 9th, provided that the base/out states are the same. However, if there are two on with no outs in a one run game in the 8th, the leverage factor will be higher than if you have no runners on with no outs in the 9th.

 

How are you getting that info? I'm intrigued.

[a700hitter]

Marlins To Sign Craig Breslow To Minors Deal

[a700hitter]

Jenrry Mejia Gets Lifetime Ban After Third Positive PED Test. What an idiot!

[sk7326]

Analysts are being paid very well to do it. Especially with the increased information on lineup turnover and such ...

[SoxHop]

Marlins To Sign Craig Breslow To Minors Deal

 

Last I heard he was selling himself as a starter......... good luck on that one..

 

I hope he does well.