2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[mvp 78]

Why settle on one arm when you can load up. Honestly, DUMBrowski likes power arms and he doesn't have many at the moment.

[Dojji]

You need Price plus one more pitcher. I think you'll still need to retool the pen, but with Kimbrel assuming the top spot, you don't have a lot of work to do. You need a 1 and a 2. The rest of your depth will sort itself out after that

 

There's a lot of hope in the fanbase that Eddie will fill the need for a #2 this year and a rotation of Price-Eddie-Porcello-Buchholz-Miley could be really really good for us. If we get both the real Porcello, and a decent year out of Buchholz, that could do it, definitely.

[Kimmi]

You need Price plus one more pitcher. I think you'll still need to retool the pen, but with Kimbrel assuming the top spot, you don't have a lot of work to do. You need a 1 and a 2. The rest of your depth will sort itself out after that

 

We don't NEED Price plus one more pitcher. Acquiring two would be my preference, but if we get Price the rotation should be pretty good. We do need another really good BP arm, IMO.

[Kimmi]

I still think the fact that Price has a career 1.85 (might be .10 off, too lazy to look it up at the moment) era at Fenway in 12 start is a clear indication that DD is going all in for him and that he is the clear cut number 1 target. He knows that. His agent knows that. Henry knows that. With that being said, there's not much getting around the overpaying part. Odds are he will give us that 3-5 year value on a 7 year contract.

 

Everyone knows how badly the Sox want Price. That can't be good. One GM speculated that Dombrowski is willing to go over the highest offer by $30-$40 million. If this is true, this is not the type of thing that you want Price and his agent to know. That's like adding on an extra $30 mil before negotiations even start.

[Kimmi]

Why settle on one arm when you can load up. Honestly, DUMBrowski likes power arms and he doesn't have many at the moment.

 

Justin Masterson is available, and I'm sure he'd be cheap.

[Dojji]

No need to be sarcastic Kimmi, it's a legitimate question. What would be better for the Franchise right now? One David Price, two lesser starters that could provide 400 combined innings to Price's 220 or so. Sure having Price is probably better once you're in the postseason, but if you could get Wei-Yin Chen and John Lackey, instead of Price, For the same cash value, doesn't that on paper give you a better chance to get to the postseason in the first place?

[cp176]

Favorites might be a bit of a stretch, considering the question marks at 1B, 3B, and how the rotation and BP actually play out, but certainly competitive.

 

Agree - to a lesser extent maybe, but I think they still have to see a catching progression at least defensively. Also, as good as the outfield looks to be defensively, will Castillo and JBJ produce the types of offensive numbers that we hope they will. They could certainly have the potential to keep us watching throughout the course of the summer.

[Bellhorn04]

No need to be sarcastic Kimmi, it's a legitimate question. What would be better for the Franchise right now? One David Price, two lesser starters that could provide 400 combined innings to Price's 220 or so. Sure having Price is probably better once you're in the postseason, but if you could get Wei-Yin Chen and John Lackey, instead of Price, For the same cash value, doesn't that on paper give you a better chance to get to the postseason in the first place?

 

Chen isn't a free agent though. And Chen and Lackey probably cost 20 million a year at free agent rates.

[mvp 78]

Justin Masterson is available, and I'm sure he'd be cheap.

 

!!!

[mvp 78]

Chen isn't a free agent though. And Chen and Lackey probably cost 20 million a year at free agent rates.

 

Chen IS a FA.

[Bellhorn04]

Chen IS a FA.

 

Whoops, my bad. Goddam Baseball-Reference...his player page there says otherwise.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chenwe02.shtml

[Kimmi]

No need to be sarcastic Kimmi, it's a legitimate question. What would be better for the Franchise right now? One David Price, two lesser starters that could provide 400 combined innings to Price's 220 or so. Sure having Price is probably better once you're in the postseason, but if you could get Wei-Yin Chen and John Lackey, instead of Price, For the same cash value, doesn't that on paper give you a better chance to get to the postseason in the first place?

 

That was my attempt at humor. I'm not disagreeing with the idea of acquiring two starters at all. That would be my preference.

 

Personally, I would have liked to see Dombrowski sweeten the Kimbrel package some and traded for Carrasco or someone similar instead of trading for Kimbrel. Then sign someone like O'Day and perhaps another starter like Chen.

 

FTR, I would have no problem with signing Chen and Lackey over Price. I think it's everyone else on this site that you have to convince.

[Dojji]

I am personally convinced that Wei-Yin Chen is one of the most underrated commodities on the market right now. If we can bring him in while he's still overshadowed by all the top talent waiting to be sold to the highest bidder, we can get most of the value we'd get from an ace at a substantian discount, and can free ourselves up to use the rest of our resources more wisely, and possibly still afford to bring in one of the top dogs too if we can shift some bad contract weight outside the franchise

 

If we take part of the salary, a lot of AL franchises wouldn't mind Hanley as their DH, just for an example, we can get a small return to pad the pen or tne bench (RHH OF or mid tier reliever) and use that money to get Chen and one of the big 4. Having a rotation of one of the big 4 guys, then Chen, Porcello, Eddie, and Buchholz as the 5 so you can skip starts for him from time to time and keep him healthy, is actually a pretty exciting rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally, I would have liked to see Dombrowski sweeten the Kimbrel package some and traded for Carrasco or someone similar instead of trading for Kimbrel. Then sign someone like O'Day and perhaps another starter like Chen.

 

My guess, and it's only that, is that Cleveland wants Betts or Bogaerts as part of a deal for Carrasco. Cleveland reportedly wants some major-league ready offensive talent. They don't have to trade Carrasco or Salazar right now. Why would they want to do so for a package of players who are years away from helping, if at all?

[Bellhorn04]

FTR, I would have no problem with signing Chen and Lackey over Price. I think it's everyone else on this site that you have to convince.

 

Signing Chen and Lackey over Price appeals to me too. But they won't be cheap either. And we'd lose our #12 pick.

[User Name]

I am personally convinced that Wei-Yin Chen is one of the most underrated commodities on the market right now. If we can bring him in while he's still overshadowed by all the top talent waiting to be sold to the highest bidder, we can get most of the value we'd get from an ace at a substantian discount, and can free ourselves up to use the rest of our resources more wisely, and possibly still afford to bring in one of the top dogs too if we can shift some bad contract weight outside the franchise

 

If we take part of the salary, a lot of AL franchises wouldn't mind Hanley as their DH, just for an example, we can get a small return to pad the pen or tne bench (RHH OF or mid tier reliever) and use that money to get Chen and one of the big 4. Having a rotation of one of the big 4 guys, then Chen, Porcello, Eddie, and Buchholz as the 5 so you can skip starts for him from time to time and keep him healthy, is actually a pretty exciting rotation.

 

So you'd give up two draft picks picks for two decent pitchers, instead of zero for Price? I'd sign Price, and trade for an innings eater while keeping my draft possibilities intact.

[Palodios]

Usually we see the total for free agents go around 1.5-2 billion total, and there are a ton of middle rotation guys available. There may be a point where other teams start running out of money and we see pitchers go cheaper than expected.

 

Personally, I'm okay with just signing Price, adding some complementary pieces and calling it an offseason.

[User Name]

Usually we see the total for free agents go around 1.5-2 billion total, and there are a ton of middle rotation guys available. There may be a point where other teams start running out of money and we see pitchers go cheaper than expected.

 

Personally, I'm okay with just signing Price, adding some complementary pieces and calling it an offseason.

 

An ace, some SP depth and a couple bench pieces is what they need.

[example1]

An ace, some SP depth and a couple bench pieces is what they need.

 

So Price or Greinke, a SP and a couple bench pieces...

 

The other SP: where do you think he should slot in the rotation? Should they be content with a mid-rotation guy or do they need another top of the rotation piece? I could see an argument for either one. If you add another mid-rotation guy then you're looking at having to be better than Miley, Kelly, or Owens. Are there many guys who would absolutely be better than one of them (and thus worthy of a pricy FA contract)? Chen, as mentioned above, could be that kind of guy, but there are others... Kazmir? Yovani Gallardo? Cliff Lee have anything left? There's pretty good upside in there.

 

At the same time, they have a lot of guys who are at least sniffing that tier of pitcher, don't they? A good year from Miley, Kelly, Owens, or Johnson could be about as good as an average Kazmir, Gallardo, Chen year. Should they spend, say, 2-3y x 15m on a mid-tier SP given the relative difference between that player and Miley, Kelly or Owens? Tough call. As far as SP goes, I guess I'm inclined to think they would be okay without another SP (assuming they have their ace). There's a log jam of arms that I'd like to see sorted out, between those four pitchers listed above. I feel like there's at least one good pitcher in that group and knowing who it is by the end of next season could make future decisions much easier. Another year for Johnson and Owens of mostly being at AAA won't help get there. Kelly should be in the pen. Even if he could be a good SP, I think he could be a tremendous reliever. His arm is electric.

 

As for the backups, I agree. A good backup OF and a utility guy to compliment Brock Holt would be ideal.

 

 

The media is acting as if the Red Sox have an uncharacteristically large budget for this year, but I don't understand why that's the case. They have a lot of money on the books and will undoubtedly spend a lot on that #1 pitcher. Any insight into this?

[mvp 78]

A logjam of mediocre arms, how terrific!

[User Name]

So Price or Greinke, a SP and a couple bench pieces...

 

The other SP: where do you think he should slot in the rotation? Should they be content with a mid-rotation guy or do they need another top of the rotation piece? I could see an argument for either one. If you add another mid-rotation guy then you're looking at having to be better than Miley, Kelly, or Owens. Are there many guys who would absolutely be better than one of them (and thus worthy of a pricy FA contract)? Chen, as mentioned above, could be that kind of guy, but there are others... Kazmir? Yovani Gallardo? Cliff Lee have anything left? There's pretty good upside in there.

 

At the same time, they have a lot of guys who are at least sniffing that tier of pitcher, don't they? A good year from Miley, Kelly, Owens, or Johnson could be about as good as an average Kazmir, Gallardo, Chen year. Should they spend, say, 2-3y x 15m on a mid-tier SP given the relative difference between that player and Miley, Kelly or Owens? Tough call. As far as SP goes, I guess I'm inclined to think they would be okay without another SP (assuming they have their ace). There's a log jam of arms that I'd like to see sorted out, between those four pitchers listed above. I feel like there's at least one good pitcher in that group and knowing who it is by the end of next season could make future decisions much easier. Another year for Johnson and Owens of mostly being at AAA won't help get there. Kelly should be in the pen. Even if he could be a good SP, I think he could be a tremendous reliever. His arm is electric.

 

As for the backups, I agree. A good backup OF and a utility guy to compliment Brock Holt would be ideal.

 

 

The media is acting as if the Red Sox have an uncharacteristically large budget for this year, but I don't understand why that's the case. They have a lot of money on the books and will undoubtedly spend a lot on that #1 pitcher. Any insight into this?

 

Because after two years of absolute suck, the Sox have to open up the coffers or risk further alienating an already pissed off fanbase that pays for the most expensive tickets in baseball.

 

As for the SP part, if they're going to sign a pitcher, they should go for broke. Price is ideal (no draft pick compensation attached), otherwise, Greinke is the only guy who'd justify draft pick forfeiture. Cueto is a high-risk, high-reward guy who would not have compensation attached either. Other than those three, I don't see the FA market as a good avenue for acquiring pitching for the Sox.

[cp176]

A combination of Buchholz, Kelly, Owens, and Johnson might equal the signing of anyone available after the 3 best. No need to add more help to the pile we already have.

[mvp 78]

A combination of Buchholz, Kelly, Owens, and Johnson might equal the signing of anyone available after the 3 best. No need to add more help to the pile we already have.

 

Buchholz can't pitch an entire year. Owens is unproven. Johnson is a 4-5 at best and more unproven than Owens. Kelly has shown just enough upside that he should be pitching out of the pen.

[cp176]

like a I said - You add them all up to create one pitcher and they might be equal to signing another middle of the road arm. Might doesn't mean would. Signing another middle of the roader makes no sense. Have to improve on what we have.

[cp176]

If they aren't able to get that number 1 somehow, we are in trouble. An interesting pattern has been created in 3 out of the last 4 years. You have to go back to the 60's to find a similar pattern for this team. I don't want to see this pattern develop again and I don't think ownership does either. I think the GM change was made with this in mind. Farrell's leadership will be under scrutiny as well. It would have been a big time negative PR move to let him go at the end of last season but he still represents 2 of those last place finishes. I am glad that we won our WS even though I still don't quite understand how it was done - some magic involved there.

[Kimmi]

My guess, and it's only that, is that Cleveland wants Betts or Bogaerts as part of a deal for Carrasco. Cleveland reportedly wants some major-league ready offensive talent. They don't have to trade Carrasco or Salazar right now. Why would they want to do so for a package of players who are years away from helping, if at all?

 

You may be right about Cleveland not being willing to trade without getting some major league ready offense back. Who knows, they might have been willing to take Hanley if the Sox ate a big part of his contract and JBJ? If not Cleveland, then perhaps Oakland or Miami would be willing to trade for prospects. Or perhaps the White Sox would trade for a package including Swihart.

 

In fairness to Dombrowski, none of knows which teams are actually willing to trade for what. I'm sure he did his due diligence and arrived at the conclusion that a trade for a starter would not be possible. OTOH, maybe all of this talk about how Price is our #1 target and how he doesn't see us trading for a starter is just a ploy to get the other teams to come down in their demands.

[Kimmi]

So you'd give up two draft picks picks for two decent pitchers, instead of zero for Price? I'd sign Price, and trade for an innings eater while keeping my draft possibilities intact.

 

Having to give up draft picks for Chen and Lackey is definitely a strike against signing either of those two. In the end, it all depends on what kind of contract those two could be signed for in contrast to what Price can be signed for. Price might end up being the better value, or Chen/Lackey might be.

 

That said, I think the chances that Lackey wants to return to Boston are slim to none. I also am not very confident that Price wants to pitch for Boston. He could probably be persuaded with a big enough contract, though I'm not sure having him sign with us if he really doesn't like Boston is a good idea.

[Kimmi]

Usually we see the total for free agents go around 1.5-2 billion total, and there are a ton of middle rotation guys available. There may be a point where other teams start running out of money and we see pitchers go cheaper than expected.

 

Personally, I'm okay with just signing Price, adding some complementary pieces and calling it an offseason.

 

I am okay with this too. If Dombrowski accomplishes this, I will feel good about our team heading into this season.

[Hitch]

...though I'm not sure having him sign with us if he really doesn't like Boston is a good idea.

 

I don't think that's a big issue. Once he's here and pitching the fans will shower him with love, patching it up with Ortiz shouldn't take much. His team mates will make a fuss of him as well you'd think.

 

It may be an issue in getting him here, but when he is, I think he will be just fine.

[Kimmi]

If they aren't able to get that number 1 somehow, we are in trouble. An interesting pattern has been created in 3 out of the last 4 years. You have to go back to the 60's to find a similar pattern for this team. I don't want to see this pattern develop again and I don't think ownership does either. I think the GM change was made with this in mind. Farrell's leadership will be under scrutiny as well. It would have been a big time negative PR move to let him go at the end of last season but he still represents 2 of those last place finishes. I am glad that we won our WS even though I still don't quite understand how it was done - some magic involved there.

 

I know everyone wants a #1, and I do too. However, the Royals did not have a #1 and they won the WS last year. There is more than one way to skin a cat, as the saying goes.

 

The GM change was definitely made because of the 3 last place finishes in 4 years. IMO, it wasn't fair to Ben, but I can understand why it was done.

 

We always hear about how 2013 was a fluke, how the Sox were extremely lucky, or how there was some magic involved. There is always some luck involved for a team to win a WS, but for the most part, I don't see 2013 as a fluke at all. I honestly believe that both 2014 and 2015 were the fluke years, not 2013. There was much more that went unexpectedly wrong in each of those years than there was that went unexpectly good in 2013.

 

As far as Farrell goes, I agree. There was no way the Sox could fire him at this time. Perhaps the team will rally around him this season, as it seemed they did when they heard that he had cancer. I am glad that Lovullo chose to stick around.