Who is the Biggest Problem Right Now?

[a700hitter]

The biggest problem right now is that they aren't tanking hard enough.

 

Also, JBJ, Mookie, Castillo, Xander, Shaw and Swihart should start 90% of the remaining games.

Should HR play?

[a700hitter]

Without going into all the details again, here is another good example of the importance of digging deeper into stats to understand why it was reasonable to expect a better combined ERA from the starting five. Not great, mind you, but better.

And how did that deeper digging work out? LOL!! They dug in the wrong spots.

[Kimmi]

And how did that deeper digging work out?

 

We all know it didn't work out. The point still stands that you can't take a single stat at face value, especially one like ERA.

[cp176]

Should HR play?

 

Not in left field.

[a700hitter]

We all know it didn't work out. The point still stands that you can't take a single stat at face value, especially one like ERA.

Sometimes the most logical explanation is the most obvious one. This group had done terribly in the prior year. Any assumptions that they would improve were clearly erroneous.

[Bellhorn04]

We all know it didn't work out. The point still stands that you can't take a single stat at face value, especially one like ERA.

 

I just checked the 2014 WAR's for our 2015 opening day rotation.

 

Per B-R Total WAR +1.7 Average WAR +.34

Per FG Total WAR +6.4 Average WAR +1.28

 

So the 2014 WAR's were also pretty bad. The B-R ones were horrible in fact.

[a700hitter]

I just checked the 2014 WAR's for our 2015 opening day rotation.

 

Per B-R Total WAR +1.7 Average WAR +.34

Per FG Total WAR +6.4 Average WAR +1.28

 

So the 2014 WAR's were also pretty bad. The B-R ones were horrible in fact.

All the signs were there about the 2015 starting rotation except an actual neon stadium sign that said they suck.

[a700hitter]

Everyone gets hopeful at the beginning of the season, because we are fans and we want our team to have a chance, but any optimism over this staff at the beginning of the season was not through rose colored glasses but rather through stupid spectacles. Knowledge and sound judgment were disregarded.

[a700hitter]

I wanted to be hopeful. I looked at their stats and their advanced stats. I found nothing encouraging. I asked the board of they had any advanced metrics that would give us hope. All I got back was explanations and theories about how the move to hitter friendly Fenway backed by the Red Sox superior defense would improve this group. I wasn't encouraged. I was told that Masrerson would return to effectiveness as he was healthy again. I watched him hitting 83-88 on the gun in spring training. I was not encouraged. I was told that Porcello was young and his best years were ahead. After 6 full seasons and a 4.40 ERA, I was dubious. What were the hopeful metrics that I missed? I would still like to know. It appears to me that there was a lot of baseless hope compounded by a really really stupid contract.

[SoxHop]

I just checked the 2014 WAR's for our 2015 opening day rotation.

 

Per B-R Total WAR +1.7 Average WAR +.34

Per FG Total WAR +6.4 Average WAR +1.28

 

What does B-R and FG mean?

[a700hitter]

What does B-R and FG mean?

FG is clearly a field goal. B-R ... ? Bedroom?

[SoxHop]

FG is clearly a field goal. B-R ... ? Bedroom?

 

Thanks..... it's much more clear to me now.

[Bellhorn04]

What does B-R and FG mean?

 

Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. Those are the 2 sources of WAR numbers and most of the baseball stats out there.

[Kimmi]

I just checked the 2014 WAR's for our 2015 opening day rotation.

 

Per B-R Total WAR +1.7 Average WAR +.34

Per FG Total WAR +6.4 Average WAR +1.28

 

So the 2014 WAR's were also pretty bad. The B-R ones were horrible in fact.

 

The first thing to remember about WAR is that it does not do as good a job as a predictive stat. The next thing to keep in mind is that the rotation was not expected to be our strength, so the low WAR total should not be that alarming.

 

That said, much of the low WAR total from 2014 is a result of injury and/or lack of innings pitched, particularly in Masterson's case. Once again, I'll point out the in 2013 Masterson was a very good pitcher, so I don't think his 2014 WAR was a good indicator of what we should expect this season, due to him being injured. Yes, he was a risk, but it wasn't an insane risk.

 

There was really no reason to expect Porcello, Miley, or Kelly to be big risks. Miley has more or less given us what we expected. Kelly has pitched about to career norms, ERA aside. He is not one who has ever pitched close to 200 innings, hence part of the reason for the low WAR, but he should have been serviceable for at least the first half. Neither one of them were expected to be front line starters.

 

Porcello has fallen way short, but there was no reason to expect that.

[Kimmi]

Everyone gets hopeful at the beginning of the season, because we are fans and we want our team to have a chance, but any optimism over this staff at the beginning of the season was not through rose colored glasses but rather through stupid spectacles. Knowledge and sound judgment were disregarded.

 

It's sad that you cannot have a debate without resorting to insults.

[a700hitter]

It's sad that you cannot have a debate without resorting to insults.

no one is being singled out, and I include myself in that group to an extent as I also fell prey somewhat to those distorted lenses. So chill.

[cp176]

I'm really hoping that next year they don't play the game of wishing and hoping. If they go out and trade for or sign players for whom there isn't much reason to just hope for things to develop the right way, it might be exciting again. I realize that things can happen to players that are known for quality play as well but they took some pretty big gambles that just didn't work out. Depending on Buccholtz - Hoping Porcello would be better than he has been (thus the contract) - hoping that Masterson would heal. For a back of the rotation guy, Miley doesn't look too bad. Hoping that Ramirez would stay healthy and be able to transition to left field. Assuming Sandoval would not eat himself out of the league. I don't feel sorry for myself. I am a fan and will probably continue look forward to another year. I don't feel sorry for the people involved who did all of the studying and decided on the current strategy. I at least avoided going to watch an inferior product that anybody who did go paid more to see than they did last year. They weren't little gambles.

[Kimmi]

no one is being singled out, and I include myself in that group to an extent as I also fell prey somewhat to those distorted lenses. So chill.

 

I'm chill. Insult away, if you must. I just think that it's sad that you have to do so.

[Thunder]

You two sound like an old married couple.

[Kimmi]

I'm really hoping that next year they don't play the game of wishing and hoping. If they go out and trade for or sign players for whom there isn't much reason to just hope for things to develop the right way, it might be exciting again. I realize that things can happen to players that are known for quality play as well but they took some pretty big gambles that just didn't work out. Depending on Buccholtz - Hoping Porcello would be better than he has been (thus the contract) - hoping that Masterson would heal. For a back of the rotation guy, Miley doesn't look too bad. Hoping that Ramirez would stay healthy and be able to transition to left field. Assuming Sandoval would not eat himself out of the league. I don't feel sorry for myself. I am a fan and will probably continue look forward to another year. I don't feel sorry for the people involved who did all of the studying and decided on the current strategy. I at least avoided going to watch an inferior product that anybody who did go paid more to see than they did last year. They weren't little gambles.

 

The gambles really weren't as big as they seem. It's the fact that none of them worked out that makes every gamble look so bad.

 

Look at the Yankees, as just one example. They took at least as many gambles as our FO did, and IMO, they took more. Think about the health questions of their starting rotation. Think about the question marks behind their offense, of which they really did nothing during the offseason to address. Really, the only thing that wasn't a question mark about their team was their BP. The difference with their gambles is that they mostly broke in the Yankees favor.

 

All teams have question marks and all teams take gambles. To have virtually every gamble fall the wrong way, not to mention things that shouldn't have been gambles, like Porcello, fall the wrong way is really unlucky, not to mention enigmatic.

[Bellhorn04]

For a team with as much money and other assets as the Red Sox to put up back-to-back doormat seasons is historically enigmatic. It's hard not to think there is something deeply wrong somewhere in the organization.

[a700hitter]

I'm chill. Insult away, if you must. I just think that it's sad that you have to do so.

What is sad was my stupid optimism at the beginning of the season. At least, I can admit it. That shouldn't insult you.

[a700hitter]

For a team with as much money and other assets as the Red Sox to put up back-to-back doormat seasons is historically enigmatic. It's hard not to think there is something deeply wrong somewhere in the organization.

Bells, I think the stench permeates the organization. They need a housecleaning and new leadership.

[mvp 78]

Should HR play?

 

Rotate him at 3b, 1b and DH.

[a700hitter]

Rotate him at 3b, 1b and DH.

i agree, but I think he is back in LF tonight. I don't know who is sitting, but we need to get Castillo, Betts and Bradley as much experience as possible. It's just dumb to be sitting any of them.

[mvp 78]

i agree, but I think he is back in LF tonight. I don't know who is sitting, but we need to get Castillo, Betts and Bradley as much experience as possible. It's just dumb to be sitting any of them.

 

"Dumb" is too nice of a word for it.

[a700hitter]

"Dumb" is too nice of a word for it.

make the game thread so we have a chance tonight.

[cp176]

The gambles really weren't as big as they seem. It's the fact that none of them worked out that makes every gamble look so bad.

 

Look at the Yankees, as just one example. They took at least as many gambles as our FO did, and IMO, they took more. Think about the health questions of their starting rotation. Think about the question marks behind their offense, of which they really did nothing during the offseason to address. Really, the only thing that wasn't a question mark about their team was their BP. The difference with their gambles is that they mostly broke in the Yankees favor.

 

All teams have question marks and all teams take gambles. To have virtually every gamble fall the wrong way, not to mention things that shouldn't have been gambles, like Porcello, fall the wrong way is really unlucky, not to mention enigmatic.

 

I believe that they were much bigger gambles than a franchise like the Boston Red Sox needed to take. I would not have been happy particularly if Porcello had performed as his career stats said that he should. It was pounded into us that he was going to be better than a middle of the rotation pitcher. He wasn't and shows no signs of being any better.

[mvp 78]

make the game thread so we have a chance tonight.

 

I'm not making GT's for a while. After winning a few in a row, I got flack for making a GT before an off day.

 

I want them to get the #1 pick anyway.

[a700hitter]

I'm not making GT's for a while. After winning a few in a row, I got flack for making a GT before an off day.

 

I want them to get the #1 pick anyway.

Lol! They will just use it to pick Trey Ball's kid brother.