Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[SoxnCycles]

There. Now he can.

 

Thanks, but I realized he thinks Porcello will do ok.

[a700hitter]

Not you Spud, but don't do that. Respect the "ignore" feature unless you are stirring the pot for a troll.

[iortiz]

Too bad A700 can't see my posts. I'd bet him $100 too.

 

Never mind. He thinks you're off base about Porcello too.

 

...and it is fine! Some posters say that we agree in everything, can you believe it? haha

 

BTW, I have already a bet regarding Porcello with you right?

[a700hitter]

...and it is fine! Some posters say that we agree in everything, can you believe it? haha

 

BTW, I have already a bet regarding Porcello with you right?

Yes. We both agree that the contract extension came too fast. And I think we both agree that he is not an ace. I am holding out hope that he can step up and pitch like a #2 with under a 4 ERA. I am not sure that he will, but a case of beer will make for an interesting bet and some fun.

[SoxnCycles]

...and it is fine! Some posters say that we agree in everything, can you believe it? haha

 

BTW, I have already a bet regarding Porcello with you right?

 

Um...yup.

[Palodios]

Porcello's numbers so far have been pretty good besides the 5 IP, 8 ER stinker. Besides that, he's pitching to 7 IP a game, 1.00 WHIP, 4.00 ERA, 8 K/9.

 

Hell, look at his opponents, Washington, Baltimore, Baltimore, Toronoto -- those are excellent offenses, besides Philly. If he can get some games in against the Astros and Twins he'll start looking more like a #2.

[a700hitter]

Porcello's numbers so far have been pretty good besides the 5 IP, 8 ER stinker. Besides that, he's pitching to 7 IP a game, 1.00 WHIP, 4.00 ERA, 8 K/9.

 

Hell, look at his opponents, Washington, Baltimore, Baltimore, Toronoto -- those are excellent offenses, besides Philly. If he can get some games in against the Astros and Twins he'll start looking more like a #2.

That is what we need from him.

[iortiz]

Yes. We both agree that the contract extension came too fast. And I think we both agree that he is not an ace. I am holding out hope that he can step up and pitch like a #2 with under a 4 ERA. I am not sure that he will, but a case of beer will make for an interesting bet and some fun.

 

Everybody makes him contact at plate. I do not like pitchers who depend a lot on their defences to get outs. He is not a swing and miss pitcher, so as OU said, the BABIP death will kill him sooner or later.

 

A lot have been said about him but time will tell, though, just like it has spoken for Papelbon who is still saving a lot games and earning his pay check.

Edited April 30, 2015 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

Everybody makes him contact at plate. I do not pitchers who depend a lot on their defences to get outs. He is not a swing and miss pitcher, so as OU said, the BABIP death will kill him sooner or later.

 

A lot have been said about him but time will tell, though, just like it has spoken for Papelbon who is still saving a lot games and earning his pay check.

He has been stepping up the k's which is encouraging, but until last night it came with an alarming increase in HR balls. Time will tell. If he fails, this team is cooked in 2015. Even if he performs like a #2, I still think $20 million/year for a #2 establishes a new market value level for #2's. I can't think of many #2's making $20 million/yr.

[cp176]

You didn't. You said that sig bets were for boys not for men, but today in the US all references must be gender neutral or you get accused of stuff. So, you see the "victim mentality" requires that you say sig bets are for children not for adults, and then you would only be accused of hating children. LOL!!!

 

It's the true liberals way of looking at things.

[User Name]

The whole bet thing is idiocy. Give it a f***ing rest.

[mvp 78]

ohh that, LOL!. I was joking around.

 

C'mon MVP where's your sense of humor man?

 

hey Kimmi, If you got offended for this, please accept my apologies, I think you didn't take it in the wrong way as MVP did but just in case, I sincerely apologise.

My opinion on the matter doesn't matter. However, I believe this did bother Kimmi if you go back and read those few pages of posts. That's the only reason it bothered me. We shouldn't be scaring off new posters that provide actual content to this board.

[Bellhorn04]

He has been stepping up the k's which is encouraging, but until last night it came with an alarming increase in HR balls. Time will tell. If he fails, this team is cooked in 2015. Even if he performs like a #2, I still think $20 million/year for a #2 establishes a new market value level for #2's. I can't think of many #2's making $20 million/yr.

 

I agree that the $20 million sets a new bar for annual salary for a pitcher with Porcello's profile. However, the flip side is that the bar for the # of years in a contract for a pitcher with his profile would be 5 or 6. He got a premium on the salary and gave a discount on the years. That's the way I see it anyway.

[iortiz]

My opinion on the matter doesn't matter. However, I believe this did bother Kimmi if you go back and read those few pages of posts. That's the only reason it bothered me. We shouldn't be scaring off new posters that provide actual content to this board.

 

scaring new posters? really?

[a700hitter]

I agree that the $20 million sets a new bar for annual salary for a pitcher with Porcello's profile. However, the flip side is that the bar for the # of years in a contract for a pitcher with his profile would be 5 or 6. He got a premium on the salary and gave a discount on the years. That's the way I see it anyway.

I think this is accurate, but it was not a big value play. If anything Ben paid a premium price here and established a new bar. It was surprising to me, because the Red Sox have not been in the habit of setting the market since Theo departed.

[Spudboy]

I think this is accurate, but it was not a big value play. If anything Ben paid a premium price here and established a new bar. It was surprising to me, because the Red Sox have not been in the habit of setting the market since Theo departed.

 

But you too have seen some very free spending in this regime too.

 

They have been throwing gobs of money around especially if you incorporate the sunk costs of the Dodger deal.

[Bellhorn04]

I think this is accurate, but it was not a big value play. If anything Ben paid a premium price here and established a new bar. It was surprising to me, because the Red Sox have not been in the habit of setting the market since Theo departed.

 

Not much is surprising me anymore in the prices for pitching, because it's a market in the throes of runaway inflation. The amount that Lester got was fairly staggering. $155 million, a $25.83 million AAV for a guy whose career numbers profile him as a #2 (that we know is capable of pitching like a #1 for stretches).

[a700hitter]

But you too have seen some very free spending in this regime too.

 

They have been throwing gobs of money around especially if you incorporate the sunk costs of the Dodger deal.

True.

[iortiz]

According to FG, Porcello is a Solid Starter in terms of WAR. Wonder how many solid starters are making 20 M these days. FG use a 4% rate to calculate the inflation in order to project salaries, if true, his contract in terms of NPV is around 72 M. Once again, how many solid starters are/will make 18 M in the next 4 years.

 

Scrub 0-1 WAR

Role Player 1-2 WAR

Solid Starter 2-3 WAR

Good Player 3-4 WAR

All-Star 4-5 WAR

Superstar 5-6 WAR

MVP 6+ WAR

Edited April 30, 2015 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

According to FG, Porcello is a Solid Starter in terms of WAR. Wonder how many solid starters are making 20 M these days. FG use a 4% rate to calculate the inflation in order to project salaries, if true, his contract in terms of NPV is around 72 M. Once again, how many solid starters are/will make 18 M in the next 4 years.

 

Scrub 0-1 WAR

Role Player 1-2 WAR

Solid Starter 2-3 WAR

Good Player 3-4 WAR

All-Star 4-5 WAR

Superstar 5-6 WAR

MVP 6+ WAR

 

As you know, FG valued Porcello at about $20 million for both 2013 and 2014. I believe they convert the WAR into dollars based on free agent contract values. It may seem ridiculous but FG is saying a 3 WAR player is worth about $20 million on the market now.

[a700hitter]

I am reading that teams looking to upgrade their starting staff and potential competition for Hamels are the Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, and Cubs. Stiff competition with deep pockets. I can hear the whiny excuses when we land Eric Bedard 2.0 and one or more of the other teams land the prize catches.

[iortiz]

As you know, FG valued Porcello at about $20 million for both 2013 and 2014. I believe they convert the WAR into dollars based on free agent contract values. It may seem ridiculous but FG is saying a 3 WAR player is worth about $20 million on the market now.

Yup, that's why one thing are the projections, and a very different animal what in real life happens. Probably I'm wrong, but I do not see any SP with a track record of 2.5 WAR/Y making 20 M.

[Spudboy]

It will be interesting to see if and when the FO pounces on any rotation talent.

 

So far they seem to be sticking to their guns.

[Palodios]

I am reading that teams looking to upgrade their starting staff and potential competition for Hamels are the Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, and Cubs. Stiff competition with deep pockets. I can hear the whiny excuses when we land Eric Bedard 2.0 and one or more of the other teams land the prize catches.

 

Aces aren't moving yet. The Red Sox probably go after a middle rotation guy first. Texas is already 7 games back, so Gallardo will probably be in play. Brewers 10 games back, Garza. Oakland 6 games, Kazmir. None of those guys are going to be pricey.

 

I still see the Red Sox going hard after Strasburg, but he's going to cost someone from the major league roster. The Reds look like toast after losing Bailey, so Cueto is out there. It is still early, but it already seems like there are plenty of bad teams with players to steal.

 

There are plenty of options.

[User Name]

I agree that the $20 million sets a new bar for annual salary for a pitcher with Porcello's profile. However, the flip side is that the bar for the # of years in a contract for a pitcher with his profile would be 5 or 6. He got a premium on the salary and gave a discount on the years. That's the way I see it anyway.

 

Because that's the way it is. It's not rocket science.

[iortiz]

Aces aren't moving yet. The Red Sox probably go after a middle rotation guy first. Texas is already 7 games back, so Gallardo will probably be in play. Brewers 10 games back, Garza. Oakland 6 games, Kazmir. None of those guys are going to be pricey.

 

I still see the Red Sox going hard after Strasburg, but he's going to cost someone from the major league roster. The Reds look like toast after losing Bailey, so Cueto is out there. It is still early, but it already seems like there are plenty of bad teams with players to steal.

 

There are plenty of options.

 

....only if we still alive the by the time which worries me a bit given the pitching.

 

Given the list above for middle-rotation guys I only like Kazmir. Cueto IMO is pipe-dream.

 

While out there probably will be options, it will be tough to trade for someone worthy, though.

[Palodios]

I think there are three possible mindsets we can have about the rotation

 

If you're pessimistic about the starting rotation, the Red Sox need two+ elite pitchers and probably won't want to spend the resources to acquire them all.

 

If you're realistic about the starting rotation, the staff isn't nearly as awful as it has shown, and the team needs one elite pitcher to push them over the top to contend for the playoffs, and maybe get some support from the minors/available depth pitchers.

 

If you're optimistic about the starting rotation, then you're probably crazy.

[User Name]

^On point.

[iortiz]

Hate to say that the first one is closer to reality than the 2nd one to me, but hopefully the No. 2 is the real deal Pal. The number 3 is hilarious.

[User Name]

Yeah, because you're a pessimist. We get it.