Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[User Name]

I just want to point out that Koji's career WHIP is the lowest for any player with 200+ IP at 0.85. The next on the list is Kimbrel at .90. He had been very effective for his career -- the problem has always been health.

 

The numbers are there. Saying Koji's season was the product of luck is asinine.

[Spudboy]

Not that this topic deserve much more discussion. Was Koji ever used as a closer prior to coming to the Sox?

 

His numbers do look good. There was little luck involved. He brought the stuff to shut batters down.

 

I remember Tazawa was used before Koji. That did not last long. I'm glad.

[seabeachfred]

Not that this topic deserve much more discussion. Was Koji ever used as a closer prior to coming to the Sox?

 

His numbers do look good. There was little luck involved. He brought the stuff to shut batters down.

 

I remember Tazawa was used before Koji. That did not last long. I'm glad.

 

I don't think Koji ever closed before except maybe a few times when the regular closer on the team he was on was either injured to taking a one night hiatus, but I have to tell you from the time that guy took over that role until he struck out Carpenter for the last out in the WS there was never closer who pitched better in that space of time than did Koji. Maybe Rivera pitched as good is his best spots but not better. Mariano just did it for years and years and that's why he's the best one ever.

[iortiz]

The numbers are there. Saying Koji's season was the product of luck is asinine.

 

While I do think there was some kind of luck regarding Koji, that is not the point. Point is that nobody expected 1. Koji closing since you already had two fat closers and 2. Much more less and more important, Koji posting those ridiculous numbers and performing as he did mostly at POs (otherwise he would have closed since the begining of 2013 season instead of the fat injury prone duo dinamico)

[Kimmi]

Yeah! Add this as well to the planets haha.

 

Will all the things align again? I do not want to be negative but it is a looooooong crap shot.

 

 

Any team that wins the WS has more things go right for them during the season than they have go wrong. Baseball is such a random game that you need to have "luck" on your side if you're going to win it all. The 2013 Sox certainly had their share of good breaks.

 

That said, I disagree that the "stars were perfectly aligned" or that winning it all in 2013 was a fluke. Did I expect a 97 win team? No, but I thought it was very much within the realm of possibility for them to win in the low 90s.

 

The 2013 was a well constructed team with depth. They were fortunate in that most players stayed relatively healthy and performed to expectations. Because of their depth, they were able to overcome what adversity they did face. I think that could be said any team that goes deep into the postseason.

 

I would like to see another pitcher added before this season starts. But ace or no ace, this year's team will have to stay relatively healthy and have more good breaks than bad in order to play into October. IMO, the depth is there, provided that the injuries/underperformances do not get ridiculous.

[Kimmi]

While I do think there was some kind of luck regarding Koji, that is not the point. Point is that nobody expected 1. Koji closing since you already had two fat closers and 2. Much more less and more important, Koji posting those ridiculous numbers and performing as he did mostly at POs (otherwise he would have closed since the begining of 2013 season instead of the fat injury prone duo dinamico)

 

 

Well, if the stars had aligned perfectly, wouldn't Hanrahan and Bailey have worked out? When you have to go to your #3 guy on the depth chart to be your closer, everything is not going right for the team.

[cp176]

Well, if the stars had aligned perfectly, wouldn't Hanrahan and Bailey have worked out? When you have to go to your #3 guy on the depth chart to be your closer, everything is not going right for the team.

 

I don't want to get in to an arguement but there really is no question at all that a great deal of luck was involved in Koji's banner year. Both bad luck and good luck. His performance was outstanding and not the product of luck but the fact alone that he got the opportunity to close that season was very lucky for us and unlucky for Bailey and Hanrahan. It certainly was no managerial stroke of genius that ultimately put him in that role. Lucky for us.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't want to get in to an arguement but there really is no question at all that a great deal of luck was involved in Koji's banner year. Both bad luck and good luck. His performance was outstanding and not the product of luck but the fact alone that he got the opportunity to close that season was very lucky for us and unlucky for Bailey and Hanrahan. It certainly was no managerial stroke of genius that ultimately put him in that role. Lucky for us.

 

One thing I would also point out is that several World Series teams over the past decade or so have had closers who had great seasons or great postseasons virtually out of nowhere.

[cp176]

One thing I would also point out is that several World Series teams over the past decade or so have had closers who had great seasons or great postseasons virtually out of nowhere.

 

 

Very true - Sometimes you just roll the dice.

[iortiz]

Well, if the stars had aligned perfectly, wouldn't Hanrahan and Bailey have worked out? When you have to go to your #3 guy on the depth chart to be your closer, everything is not going right for the team.

 

mmm.... When u say the planets aligned, is because you did not expect at all or with little chances some situations which were transcendental to succeed. When they landed Hanrahan everybody expected that he performed at least as he did in the recent past. He did not since got injured. Bailey was expected to stay healthy and set up the table for H. He didn't. He... Well got injured, again.

 

So... the planets aligned when we found in Koji a closer that nobody on earth expected... plus, a lot things worked out as well which nobody saw coming.

 

That's kind of the point.

Edited January 25, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Any team that wins the WS has more things go right for them during the season than they have go wrong. Baseball is such a random game that you need to have "luck" on your side if you're going to win it all. The 2013 Sox certainly had their share of good breaks.

 

That said, I disagree that the "stars were perfectly aligned" or that winning it all in 2013 was a fluke. Did I expect a 97 win team? No, but I thought it was very much within the realm of possibility for them to win in the low 90s.

 

The 2013 was a well constructed team with depth. They were fortunate in that most players stayed relatively healthy and performed to expectations. Because of their depth, they were able to overcome what adversity they did face. I think that could be said any team that goes deep into the postseason.

 

I would like to see another pitcher added before this season starts. But ace or no ace, this year's team will have to stay relatively healthy and have more good breaks than bad in order to play into October. IMO, the depth is there, provided that the injuries/underperformances do not get ridiculous.

While winning a WS is kinda crap shot, haven't seen the numbers, but I would bet that no more than a handful of teams represent the 80/20 of the total of teams which have won the WSs

 

Point is, you always will have more chances when you have a better team on paper, and it usually is attached with big money. Don't believe me? Look at the NYY. Look at Real Madrid. Probably out there are exceptions but almost every professional sport is commanded by rich teams.

 

BL. We are going to enter into a new season without a big dollar arm/ace/No1 and still one of the highests payrolls in baseball. Funny.

Edited January 24, 2015 by iortiz

[seabeachfred]

Well, if the stars had aligned perfectly, wouldn't Hanrahan and Bailey have worked out? When you have to go to your #3 guy on the depth chart to be your closer, everything is not going right for the team.

 

I can't speak for my friend iortiz but what he might be linking his ideas to is that whenever someone bummed out, proved to be ineffective, got hurt, and failed to hit, it seemed like someone was there to bail him out, in many cases two or three doing it at the same time. Just remember those clutch hits by Nava, Gomes, Napoli and even Salty, hits that took some of the load off of Papi and Pedey. To me anyway, stars aligning means that there were always a few ready to do their part when others had off days, injuries and ineffectiveness. Just look at how Lester and Lackey emerged from that summer on when Buchholz went on the shelf, and how Koji was thrust into a spot that had become a potential arson paradise and saved the day and the next and the next. That to me is my take on what I believe is the stars aligning.

[iortiz]

I can't speak for my friend iortiz but what he might be linking his ideas to is that whenever someone bummed out, proved to be ineffective, got hurt, and failed to hit, it seemed like someone was there to bail him out, in many cases two or three doing it at the same time. Just remember those clutch hits by Nava, Gomes, Napoli and even Salty, hits that took some of the load off of Papi and Pedey. To me anyway, stars aligning means that there were always a few ready to do their part when others had off days, injuries and ineffectiveness. Just look at how Lester and Lackey emerged from that summer on when Buchholz went on the shelf, and how Koji was thrust into a spot that had become a potential arson paradise and saved the day and the next and the next. That to me is my take on what I believe is the stars aligning.

Yeah, those and other things happened and were not expected at all, reason why I said the planets aligned.

Edited January 25, 2015 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

To have any pitcher on your team put up one of the top 2 or 3 season performances for a closer is "the planets aligning". He had a season that was a statistical outlier and he had it at age 38. He had a WHIP of 0.565 while striking out101 batters in 2013. The great Mo struck out more than 100 batters once in his career -- in his first full year (1996) when he was a multi inning set up guy. He threw more than 100 innings in 1996. As a closer, he never came close to 100 k's in a year. Also, Koji's strike to ball ratio in 2013 was insane. Has any closer ever come close. Of course it was an ideal year for Koji. It was his " career year". He had it at age 38. Not only will that be his career year, but we will be lucky if we see another guy have a season like that. Edited January 25, 2015 by a700hitter

[seabeachfred]

To have any pitcher on your team put up one of the top 2 or 3 season performances for a closer is "the planets aligning". He had a season that was a statistical outlier and he had it at age 38. He had a WHIP of 0.565 while striking out101 batters in 2013. The great Mo struck out more than 100 batters once in his career -- in his first full year (1996) when he was a multi inning set up guy. He threw more than 100 innings in 1996. As a closer, he never came close to 100 k's in a year. Also, Koji's strike to ball ratio in 2013 was insane. Has any closer ever come close. Of course it was an ideal year for Koji. It was his " career year". He had it at age 38. Not only will that be his career year, but we will be lucky if we see another guy have a season like that.

 

All I know Ted was when the season was over I was thankful our two first "closers" Bailey and Hanrahan went on the shelf because as sure as God made little green applies we wouldn't be talking about that 2013 in the same breath had they not-----and the chances were good we most likely wouldn't even have won the division, let along the World Series. At least that's the way I saw it.

[Kimmi]

I don't want to get in to an arguement but there really is no question at all that a great deal of luck was involved in Koji's banner year. Both bad luck and good luck. His performance was outstanding and not the product of luck but the fact alone that he got the opportunity to close that season was very lucky for us and unlucky for Bailey and Hanrahan. It certainly was no managerial stroke of genius that ultimately put him in that role. Lucky for us.

 

 

The problem I have with people saying that the stars aligned perfectly, etc. is that it makes it sound like winning the WS was just dumb luck. This team won the WS because they were a good team with good depth, not because they were lucky. Again, the team had a lot of things go right, but IMO, not any more so than most teams that win the WS. Give Ben and the FO some credit.

 

It was a managerial stroke of genius that Ben assembled a BP that had enough depth to withstand the injuries/ineffectiveness of Bailey and Hanrahan.

[Kimmi]

mmm.... When u say the planets aligned, is because you did not expect at all or with little chances some situations which were transcendental to succeed. When they landed Hanrahan everybody expected that he performed at least as he did in the recent past. He did not since got injured. Bailey was expected to stay healthy and set up the table for H. He didn't. He... Well got injured, again.

 

So... the planets aligned when we found in Koji a closer that nobody on earth expected... plus, a lot things worked out as well which nobody saw coming.

 

That's kind of the point.

 

 

I'm not saying the planets aligned. I'm saying that it was not a fluke that the Sox won the WS in 2013. I'm saying it was more of a fluke that the Sox came in last place in 2014. And if the Sox win the WS this year without an "ace", it won't be a fluke.

 

A lot of things worked out well in 2013, but at the same time, many things did not work out as planned. Credit the FO for building a team with enough depth to overcome the bad breaks.

[cp176]

The problem I have with people saying that the stars aligned perfectly, etc. is that it makes it sound like winning the WS was just dumb luck. This team won the WS because they were a good team with good depth, not because they were lucky. Again, the team had a lot of things go right, but IMO, not any more so than most teams that win the WS. Give Ben and the FO some credit.

 

It was a managerial stroke of genius that Ben assembled a BP that had enough depth to withstand the injuries/ineffectiveness of Bailey and Hanrahan.

 

I truly will and do give him credit. Genius - not quite yet. Maybe some day I hope and I think that it is great that he has supporters like you. I support him as well but am not quite ready to call his moves genius moves.

[Kimmi]

I can't speak for my friend iortiz but what he might be linking his ideas to is that whenever someone bummed out, proved to be ineffective, got hurt, and failed to hit, it seemed like someone was there to bail him out, in many cases two or three doing it at the same time. Just remember those clutch hits by Nava, Gomes, Napoli and even Salty, hits that took some of the load off of Papi and Pedey. To me anyway, stars aligning means that there were always a few ready to do their part when others had off days, injuries and ineffectiveness. Just look at how Lester and Lackey emerged from that summer on when Buchholz went on the shelf, and how Koji was thrust into a spot that had become a potential arson paradise and saved the day and the next and the next. That to me is my take on what I believe is the stars aligning.

 

 

That to me is good planning on the part of the FO.

 

While I thought the 2014 team was going to be a true contender as well, what the team lacked was some quality depth on the left side of the infield and CF. Even so, I would say that 2014 was kind of the perfect storm of just about everything that could go wrong offensively. Bad luck in 2014.

[Spitball]

Was Koji ever used as a closer prior to coming to the Sox?

 

After starting his career primarily as a starter in Japan, he had 32 saves with the Yomiuri Giants in 2007. He had 13 saves with Baltimore in 2010. In Japan and in the USA, the guy has kept his WHIP around or under 1.00 through his career.

[Kimmi]

Yeah, those and other things happened and were not expected at all, reason why I said the planets aligned.

 

 

I don't know why those things would be so unexpected. Nava, ok. Maybe his performance was unexpected. For the most part, the rest of the guys did what the FO knew they were capable of doing.

 

Except for Middlebrooks.

[a700hitter]

I'm not saying the planets aligned. I'm saying that it was not a fluke that the Sox won the WS in 2013. I'm saying it was more of a fluke that the Sox came in last place in 2014. And if the Sox win the WS this year without an "ace", it won't be a fluke.

 

A lot of things worked out well in 2013, but at the same time, many things did not work out as planned. Credit the FO for building a team with enough depth to overcome the bad breaks.

 

I' ll give them credit when things work out as they did in 2013, but they have to take the blame when they go into the crapper. It was no fluke that they finished last in 2014. They lost an all star CF who was an offensive catalyst and replaced him with a guy who would have needed a tremendous hotstreak to cross the Mendoza line. They handed over three starting positions to unproven kids and they had no backup plan except getting Drew after the team was firmly in suckland. And we know how Drew worked out. They went into the season operating without a net. There was no depth. Neither 2013 nor 2014 were flukes and the FO gets the credit and the blame. However, to win it all you need a few more things to go right and have luck shine on you than you need bad breaks to finish last. If Tori Hunter was 2 inches taller or had 2 inch orthodics we never make it to the WS.

Edited January 25, 2015 by a700hitter

[cp176]

That to me is good planning on the part of the FO.

 

While I thought the 2014 team was going to be a true contender as well, what the team lacked was some quality depth on the left side of the infield and CF. Even so, I would say that 2014 was kind of the perfect storm of just about everything that could go wrong offensively. Bad luck in 2014.

 

Kimmi - Hope you don't think that I was being critical of your support of the front office.I would not criticize you. Might not always agree but would not criticize. You are a good poster who clearly knows the game. I support them as well. What I did learn as a coach is that if you do it long enough you probably will experience both the top and bottom rungs of the ladder. Sometimes in spite of what you do or don't do. Luck has to play a roll. When we were real good, people thought I was a genius and when we were bad my family had to hear some things I didn't want them to hear. I was the same guy. Most of the time you do help to make your own luck for sure. But sometimes you just sit back and say how could that possibly have happened.

[Kimmi]

To have any pitcher on your team put up one of the top 2 or 3 season performances for a closer is "the planets aligning". He had a season that was a statistical outlier and he had it at age 38. He had a WHIP of 0.565 while striking out101 batters in 2013. The great Mo struck out more than 100 batters once in his career -- in his first full year (1996) when he was a multi inning set up guy. He threw more than 100 innings in 1996. As a closer, he never came close to 100 k's in a year. Also, Koji's strike to ball ratio in 2013 was insane. Has any closer ever come close. Of course it was an ideal year for Koji. It was his " career year". He had it at age 38. Not only will that be his career year, but we will be lucky if we see another guy have a season like that.

 

 

Koji indeed had a great year, but it's not like he sucked before that and the great year came out of nowhere. In 2012, his BB/9 and K/BB rates were better than they were in 2013. In other words, the great year should not have been unexpected or considered lucky.

[Kimmi]

I truly will and do give him credit. Genius - not quite yet. Maybe some day I hope and I think that it is great that he has supporters like you. I support him as well but am not quite ready to call his moves genius moves.

 

 

I consider some of his moves to be genius, though he has not earned his "Theo" status yes. ;-)

[Kimmi]

I' ll give them credit when things work out as they did in 2013, but they have to take the blame when they go into the crapper. It was no fluke that they finished last in 2014. They lost an all star CF who was an offensive catalyst and replaced him with a guy who would have needed a tremendous hotstreak to cross the Mendoza line. They handed over three starting positions to unproven kids and they had no backup plan except getting Drew after the team was firmly in suckland. And we know how Drew worked out. They went into the season operating without a net. There was no depth. Neither 2013 nor 2014 were flukes and the FO gets the credit and the blame. However, to win it all you need a few more things to go right and have luck shine on you than you need bad breaks to finish last. If Tori Hunter was 2 inches taller or had 2 inch orthodics we never make it to the WS.

 

 

I agree that they share part of the responsibility for 2014. They did not have a decent back up plan for Bogaerts/Middlebrooks and for JBJ should they get injured or underperform. Depending on three unproven kids with no viable back up plan did indeed contribute to the horrendous offensive year. That said, the fact that all 3 of them struggled, along with most of the rest of the line up is bad luck. No one could have foreseen the offense being as bad as it was.

 

As far as either 2013 or 2014 being flukes or not, all I'm saying is that out of the 2 years, I would say that the outcome of 2013 was more expected than the outcome of 2014. So, if either of those years is to be considered a fluke, it would be the latter.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi - Hope you don't think that I was being critical of your support of the front office.I would not criticize you. Might not always agree but would not criticize. You are a good poster who clearly knows the game. I support them as well. What I did learn as a coach is that if you do it long enough you probably will experience both the top and bottom rungs of the ladder. Sometimes in spite of what you do or don't do. Luck has to play a roll. When we were real good, people thought I was a genius and when we were bad my family had to hear some things I didn't want them to hear. I was the same guy. Most of the time you do help to make your own luck for sure. But sometimes you just sit back and say how could that possibly have happened.

 

 

CP, I did not take any offense to your responses to me. We disagree, but you have responded respectfully to me.

 

Luck definitely plays a roll in any baseball season. IMO, randomness/luck plays a much larger roll in baseball than most people realize.

 

Don't get me started on the false notion that "good teams know how to win the close games". One and two run game outcomes are largely the result of luck.

[cp176]

CP, I did not take any offense to your responses to me. We disagree, but you have responded respectfully to me.

 

Luck definitely plays a roll in any baseball season. IMO, randomness/luck plays a much larger roll in baseball than most people realize.

 

Don't get me started on the false notion that "good teams know how to win the close games". One and two run game outcomes are largely the result of luck.

 

The old notion that you learn more from losing than you do from winning is relative. The only thing we ever learned was how much we hated to lose. It always was a motivator that made us better. I will not discount the impact or role that luck plays in close games but it is amazing - the harder you work and the better your preparation the better your luck. Maybe the terminology should be different but good teams win more close games than bad teams obviously. Confidence plays a huge role and confidence does seem to create more luck.

[mvp 78]

I consider some of his moves to be genius, though he has not earned his "Theo" status yes. ;-)

 

Yup, not enough horrible FA acquisitions yet to compare him to Theo (all those horrible SP stop gaps, the SS constant turnover, Crawford, etc.).

[cp176]

Yup, not enough horrible FA acquisitions yet to compare him to Theo (all those horrible SP stop gaps, the SS constant turnover, Crawford, etc.).

 

The bait is in the water - chum line is set. Come on!