2014 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

If there were no distinction, keeping score would be very easy -- H or O -- that would be it.

[cp176]

The debate is not about putting the ball in play versus not putting it in play, but rather putting it into play for an out, even a productive out, versus striking out. There's essentially no difference. There are times when the batter is better off striking out.

 

 

I didn't realize it was a debate. I would not have gotten involved in this one. I just have to pay more attention obviously.

[Kimmi]

I get that, but whenI am at the game at there is a man on 2nd or 3rd with no one out, I want the goundball to second not the k. At that point, the law oflarge numbers is meaningless to me.

 

 

Fair enough. Situational hitting is key. But, even the best hitters aren't going to be successful in advancing the runner 100% of the time in that situation. It could backfire and result in a line drive DP. Which is way more costly than the K in that situation.

[Kimmi]

I didn't realize it was a debate. I would not have gotten involved in this one. I just have to pay more attention obviously.

 

 

cp, you can get involved in any debate/discussion that you would like. I enjoy reading your posts. I apologize if my post led you to believe otherwise. I was just trying to clarify.

[a700hitter]

Fair enough. Situational hitting is key. But, even the best hitters aren't going to be successful in advancing the runner 100% of the time in that situation. It could backfire and result in a line drive DP. Which is way more costly than the K in that situation.

Sure. it seemed that Salty who had problems making contact to make a productive out would manage to make contact to hit into bases loaded DPs.

[Kimmi]

If there were no distinction, keeping score would be very easy -- H or O -- that would be it.

 

 

There is no distinction as far as the run value of a particular player over the course of the season. But you knew that. Like I said, you like to argue just for the sake of arguing. But that's cool. I enjoy a good debate.

[a700hitter]

There is no distinction as far as the run value of a particular player over the course of the season. But you knew that. Like I said, you like to argue just for the sake of arguing. But that's cool. I enjoy a good debate.

The law of large numbers are that I will never get beheaded by a terrorist, but that gives me little comfort if it happens. I don't mean to overdramatize, but when that duck is sitting on third base and the batter takes three and sits down, it gives me little solace to think that it doesn't effect his overall productivity.

[Kimmi]

The law of large numbers are that I will never get beheaded by a terrorist, but that gives me little comfort if it happens. I don't mean to overdramatize, but when that duck is sitting on third base and the batter takes three and sits down, it gives me little solace to think that it doesn't effect his overall productivity.

 

 

I get that. Believe me, I don't like seeing that anymore than you do. I just don't like people complaining about someone like Napoli striking out too much.

[sk7326]

I get that, but whenI am at the game at there is a man on 2nd or 3rd with no one out, I want the goundball to second not the k. At that point, the law of large numbers is meaningless to me.

 

Well it ultimately becomes the value of a run vs the value of lots of runs. Certainly there are select times when a single run is what you need - but it's pretty rare.

[sk7326]

It's back to the past - Dave Kingman - a clout or an out. I still like to see the ball in play. Lots of things can go right from a hitter - baserunner perspective when contact is made.

 

Except this misses the part where Napoli doesn't actually make that many outs - it's just that the outs he makes are often whiffs. Kingman was a career .302 OBP after all.

[a700hitter]

I get that. Believe me, I don't like seeing that anymore than you do. I just don't like people complaining about someone like Napoli striking out too much.

My complaints are not limited to Napoli. Far too many guys take the same swing for the fences no matter the situation. It drives me crazy.

[seabeachfred]

Better may not be the correct term.

How about more consistent?

When Napoli is on, he's a scary hitter, but he does have some pretty nasty slumps.

 

I'd like to see what Craig can do when fully healthy.

 

If Craig returns to the semblance of a hitter he was before last season's pratfall, then I wouldn't be so anxious to get rid of him. In three previous seasons before 2014 he hit 407 with RISP, and our "wonderboy" Bogaerts hit 153 in that same capacity last season. Perhaps just to play it safety we ought to keep Alan around to be ready to bat for Bogey when and if he starts leaving runners on base by the carload as he did last season.

[seabeachfred]

Well if you watch Bradley and say that "he will never hit" then you have to conclude the same thing when watching Craig. Regardless of his record.

 

The guy was lost.

 

No quite Spud. Craig has shown that he can hit in the Bigs and did it over several seasons.......Bradley didn't hit in 2013 in a short span, didn't hit in ST in 2014, didn't hit a lick during the regular season, and didn't hit when they sent him down to Pawtucket (204). Overall he is under 200 for all that work. Big difference between the two.

[cp176]

Except this misses the part where Napoli doesn't actually make that many outs - it's just that the outs he makes are often whiffs. Kingman was a career .302 OBP after all.

 

Oh God - believe me I understand that. I will always be a hit to contact kind of guy but I really do see the value in those big hitters. Kingman for awhile was just one of those guys who was fun to talk about. I am one who still does not like to see the football in the air. 2 out of 3 things that can happen are bad. That, I am sure would be a minority opinion as well.

[Spudboy]

No quite Spud. Craig has shown that he can hit in the Bigs and did it over several seasons.......Bradley didn't hit in 2013 in a short span, didn't hit in ST in 2014, didn't hit a lick during the regular season, and didn't hit when they sent him down to Pawtucket (204). Overall he is under 200 for all that work. Big difference between the two.

 

There is virtually no difference when both are not hitting their weight.

 

Craig's history of hitting may console some and lead them to believe that he can do it again.

 

Until he hits again he is the same as Bradley.

[Kimmi]

My complaints are not limited to Napoli. Far too many guys take the same swing for the fences no matter the situation. It drives me crazy.

 

 

And while that may result in a K more than you'd like, how often does it result in an extra base hit?

 

I happen to agree with you that there are times when a batter should shorten his swing. I just think that far too much is made of high strike out guys who also have a high OBP and high OPS. Their strike outs really just don't matter.

[Spitball]

This is one of my favorite misconceptions in baseball. I like to compare sure Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki and not going to make it Adam Dunn. Outside of defense in 14 seasons, Dunn was the better offensive player. The batting average advantage goes clearly to Ichiro, and Dunn struck out more than twice as often as Ichiro. But Dunn made it on base more often at a .364 to .360 rate. Dunn OPSed .854 to Ichiro's .771. If we combine RBI and runs scored, Dunn leads 2,265 to 2,020. Strikeout artist Dunn leads in every important measure...yet won't be mentioned in the same breath as Suzuki.

[mvp 78]

This is one of my favorite misconceptions in baseball. I like to compare sure Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki and not going to make it Adam Dunn. Outside of defense in 14 seasons, Dunn was the better offensive player. The batting average advantage goes clearly to Ichiro, and Dunn struck out more than twice as often as Ichiro. But Dunn made it on base more often at a .364 to .360 rate. Dunn OPSed .854 to Ichiro's .771. If we combine RBI and runs scored, Dunn leads 2,265 to 2,020. Strikeout artist Dunn leads in every important measure...yet won't be mentioned in the same breath as Suzuki.

Because HOF voting is stupid and regressive.

[Ogden]

I read an article where the author researched how hitters do after disastrous seasons like Craig had. In a few rare instances the guy bounced back, but generally they were toast. Bradley probably has a better chance than Craig, because he is still learning. He could find something that will help him.

 

Napoli last 6 seasons' batting avg - 272, 238, 320, 227, 259, 248. Craig - 315, 307, 315, 215. Napoli has had 75+ RBIs twice in 9 years. Craig had 92+ RBIs twice in 5 1/2 years. Both guys have had injuries that affected their performance multiple times. They both have had one year that varied from their norm. Craig's norm looks more promising to me than Napoli's, but I suspect Craig may not get the chance for regular playing time to test the theory.

 

I've had foolish expectations before and I'll have them again, but I don't think you can refute Craig's talent in the past. I also have no idea how Napoli's sleep apnea affected his lack of ability to make consistent contact, but we'll see if there is any kind of improvement fairly early I would think.

[Ogden]

It's back to the past - Dave Kingman - a clout or an out. I still like to see the ball in play. Lots of things can go right from a hitter - baserunner perspective when contact is made.

 

 

 

LOL. Is that your phrase or did you steal it or am I living a sheltered life and it's been often used?

[Ogden]

The debate is not about putting the ball in play versus not putting it in play, but rather putting it into play for an out, even a productive out, versus striking out. There's essentially no difference. There are times when the batter is better off striking out.

 

 

I suspect agents would argue with you if they have clients that advance the runner 30 times a year but have a mediocre BA. Get Bill James on the phone. What's his assessment?

[a700hitter]

And while that may result in a K more than you'd like, how often does it result in an extra base hit?

We are in a post steroid era. Power is not as plentiful. Spitball brought up Adam Dunn. Dunn is a huge specimen who was a 35+ HR guy who walked a lot. You tolerate K's from that kind of guy. It's the 20-25 HR guys who annoy me when they swing from the heels regardless of the situation.

[seabeachfred]

My complaints are not limited to Napoli. Far too many guys take the same swing for the fences no matter the situation. It drives me crazy.

 

And here's what gets me Ted---and correct me if I'm wrong. Power is down nowadays. The era of 40+ home run hitters seems to be a thing of the past. You would think there would be more emphasis of going what I always called the "V" route when I was a coach. From the pitcher's box in a "V" shaped arc up the alleys in left and right center. More hitting room there and you can even wait a fraction longer on the ball to get a better look at it even though we talking about milliseconds. I think gap power is very underrated and I wish our guys take advantage of that this coming season.

[a700hitter]

And here's what gets me Ted---and correct me if I'm wrong. Power is down nowadays. The era of 40+ home run hitters seems to be a thing of the past. You would think there would be more emphasis of going what I always called the "V" route when I was a coach. From the pitcher's box in a "V" shaped arc up the alleys in left and right center. More hitting room there and you can even wait a fraction longer on the ball to get a better look at it even though we talking about milliseconds. I think gap power is very underrated and I wish our guys take advantage of that this coming season.

You'll get no argument from me on this.

[cp176]

LOL. Is that your phrase or did you steal it or am I living a sheltered life and it's been often used?

 

 

Come on Ogden, i know that you have heard that one before. It was a phrase used with Kingdom. Throughout his career, I think that it was fairly accurate.

[cp176]

So if we follow this obvious line of reasoning that a strikeout and an out caused by a batted ball amount to the same thing basically does this make a true power pitcher less significant? No more K-cards get held up. Strikeouts to innings pitched statistic is less important. Suffer my ignorance please - this is not a subject I think deeply about. But I also pay to have my taxes done as well.

[Bellhorn04]

So if we follow this obvious line of reasoning that a strikeout and an out caused by a batted ball amount to the same thing basically does this make a true power pitcher less significant? No more K-cards get held up. Strikeouts to innings pitched statistic is less important. Suffer my ignorance please - this is not a subject I think deeply about. But I also pay to have my taxes done as well.

 

A pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts but gives up a high OPS is not as good as a groundball pitcher who gives up a low OPS.

 

A hitter who strikes out a lot but has a high OPS is better than a contact hitter with a low OPS.

[cp176]

A pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts but gives up a high OPS is not as good as a groundball pitcher who gives up a low OPS.

 

A hitter who strikes out a lot but has a high OPS is better than a contact hitter with a low OPS.

 

ok - good - glad someone is doing all that factoring other than me.

[Bellhorn04]

Sometimes the statistical debates get confused over the differences between the micro picture and the macro picture. If Mike Napoli is up with a runner at third and no outs, of course we would all rather see him hit an RBI groundout than K. That's not the point. The point is that over the course of 162 games Napoli is very productive in spite of striking out so much.

 

Mike Trout was 3rd in MLB in K's last year. Stanton was 9th.

[Kimmi]

This is one of my favorite misconceptions in baseball. I like to compare sure Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki and not going to make it Adam Dunn. Outside of defense in 14 seasons, Dunn was the better offensive player. The batting average advantage goes clearly to Ichiro, and Dunn struck out more than twice as often as Ichiro. But Dunn made it on base more often at a .364 to .360 rate. Dunn OPSed .854 to Ichiro's .771. If we combine RBI and runs scored, Dunn leads 2,265 to 2,020. Strikeout artist Dunn leads in every important measure...yet won't be mentioned in the same breath as Suzuki.

 

I agree with you Spitball. Dunn was the better overall hitter.

 

As far as the HOF voting goes, defense should be given more credit, so I can't give Dunn any love there. However, the criteria used by most voters is archaic. Those guys need to get with the times.