2014 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

He has no leverage at this point. Pitchers and catchers are reporting in less than 2 weeks. He can probably be had at a reasonable price and length of years. I can't stand this " young controllable arms" idea. Our young controllable arms from last year -- Webster, De La Rosa, and Renaudo have all been jettisoned. I really don't expect the group coming behind them is much better. Porcello is a 1 year deal. So is Masterson. Buch's contract is up this season too

If we had the coverage and quality at the pitching farm that TB used to run by Friedman in recent years I would have said oks to the "young controllable arms" strategy;... Since we are far to be in that position, that strategy wouldn't make sense right now. Also, you have money. Problem is that they have distributed it horrible. We have a very unbalanced team, and this pitching staff looks mediocre at best.

Edited February 3, 2015 by iortiz

[mvp 78]

Stop using words you don't understand. Put the thesaurus away.

[iortiz]

What words?

[User Name]

Coverture: Coverture (sometimes spelled couverture) was a legal doctrine whereby, upon marriage, a woman's legal rights and obligations were subsumed by those of her husband, in accordance with the wife's legal status of feme covert. An unmarried woman, a feme sole, had the right to own property and make contracts in her own name.

On a baseball-related note: With Owens so close to being MLB ready, and the existence of other high-upside assets, saying that the Sox are not in position have a youth movement at SP is pretty silly.

 

We get it, you guys don't like anything the FO does, but at least try to be logical about it.

[iortiz]

oh that. I meant coverage haha. Sometimes the auto correct doesn't work as I would wish...

 

On the other hand, We also get it, you always will support whatever the FO makes, it is pretty clear.

[iortiz]

I've heard that also. What really frustrates me is that the Red Sox kept saying "We're looking for an ace, but at the right price". Shields seems like he might be available for that right price.

 

This.

 

Not sure what the right price is. Lester at 120 M would have looked like the right price to me. Shields at 100 M isn't a bargain but fair enough for all parts. Some still saying that the Lester-Shields signing was a pipe dream. I do not get it. They were vey affordable even if it meant not signing Panda and/or HR.

[Elktonnick]

There is some talk that Shields may realistically expect to receive under 75m for at best 4 years. Some other analysts are wondering if Shields may be willing to sign a one year "pillow" deal.and test the market next year. Clearly he and his agent misread the market. Many think the so called 5 year 110 offer was bogus. If Shields is available for one or two years one has to wonder why the Sox wouldn't be interested.

[iortiz]

There is some talk that Shields may realistically expect to receive under 75m for at best 4 years. Some other analysts are wondering if Shields may be willing to sign a one year "pillow" deal.and test the market next year. Clearly he and his agent misread the market. Many think the so called 5 year 110 offer was bogus. If Shields is available for one or two years one has to wonder why the Sox wouldn't be interested.

75 M? If this is not the right price, then I do not know what it is.

[iortiz]

If we do not sign him, I only hope that any team in the ALE does not.

[BSN07]

A page and a half of blocked iortiz posts. Is he on a bender on something?

[Spudboy]

He has no leverage at this point. Pitchers and catchers are reporting in less than 2 weeks. He can probably be had at a reasonable price and length of years. I can't stand this " young controllable arms" idea. Our young controllable arms from last year -- Webster, De La Rosa, and Renaudo have all been jettisoned. I really don't expect the group coming behind them is much better. Porcello is a 1 year deal. So is Masterson. Buch's contract is up this season too

 

As I said I would like Shields on the Sox. Even with the stove coming to an end, I think that it's still possible that he gets 4 years somewhere.

 

Also, as you have pointed out, Porcello, Masterson, and Buch are free agents after this coming season. Who knows what can happen. This just supports my belief that the 2016 rotation will likely look different.

[dupree]

If Porcello, Masterson, & Buch come out of the gate pitching well I see the FO trying to extend them during the season before they come close to free agency. With previous experiences of pitchers' contracts and them losing out on them I see them starting talks early. So come May this team may have 3 pitchers in fold for years to come.

[Palodios]

The MLB just unblocked Moncada, and other Cuban players already confirmed by the U.S. so they are now available to sign on a major league team. The Phillies also just put Hamels back into play. Many teams including the Yanks and Dodgers will be focused on those guys -- I wonder how it will all work out.

[sk7326]

He had a 45.2 GB% last year, and is at 44.1% for his career. Also, over 50% of his pitches were located in the lower quadrants of the strike zone last year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=7059&position=P&ss=2014&se=2014&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=0&grid=5&view=pit

 

That ain't it. I'm not buying it.

 

I think the "Age 33, who has spent the majority of his career in favorable run prevention environments (parks and defenses)" excuse is sufficient to not look at him. But at this second, the Sox are one of the few teams in a good position to make a move if they wanted. They have the money and it would only cost them their 3rd rounder. I'd go up to him, offer him 1/25 (maybe with an option) and point out "nobody seems to think you can pitch outside of pitcher's heavens. Show them they're wrong."

[sk7326]

75 M? If this is not the right price, then I do not know what it is.

 

My theory - the market does not think he can pitch outside of ideal pitching environments. (yes, the AL East is a bear, but Tampa and Kansas City are two of the best run prevention outfits of recent years)

[iortiz]

My theory - the market does not think he can pitch outside of ideal pitching environments. (yes, the AL East is a bear, but Tampa and Kansas City are two of the best run prevention outfits of recent years)

 

He has a solid ERA pitching at BAL, TOR and TB, but when he pitched at BOS or NY he wasn't that good.

Edited February 3, 2015 by iortiz

[jacksonianmarch]

The Phillies want Swihart for Hamels. I know Amaro catches a lot of flack, but he has a prime age ace with 4 years of control at what now amounts to sub market value. You cannot blame him for asking high. That being said, if it's a one for one swap, that's pretty reasonable. My assumption is that it's more than just that.

[iortiz]

I think Shields > Hamels. Plus he has pitched in the AL (even with those "friendly pitching environments") AND most important he only would cost money.

[User Name]

Cole Hamels has a 4.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP against the AL in over 180 IP. Food for thought.

[Kimmi]

The Phillies want Swihart for Hamels. I know Amaro catches a lot of flack, but he has a prime age ace with 4 years of control at what now amounts to sub market value. You cannot blame him for asking high. That being said, if it's a one for one swap, that's pretty reasonable. My assumption is that it's more than just that.

 

 

Amaro has the right to ask high, no doubt. My understanding is that Swihart is just the beginning. He wants two "premium" prospects plus a few lower level prospects according to one "source". I would rather the Sox sign Shields than give up Swihart plus to get Hamels.

[Kimmi]

While I'd like to see Shields with the Sox, I just don't see the Sox investing in a 33-34 year old arm at this point.

 

My guess, and my hope, is that the Sox are emphasizing going with younger, controllable arms.

 

My bet is that the 2016 rotation will look quite different.

 

 

Emphasizing younger, controllable arms is good. However, I also think it would be good to have a solid, veteran presence to lead those younger arms. Relying on too much youth can be risky.

[sk7326]

Emphasizing younger, controllable arms is good. However, I also think it would be good to have a solid, veteran presence to lead those younger arms. Relying on too much youth can be risky.

 

Oh I think that the org does too - but maybe not the presences available at this second.

[BSN07]

The Phillies want Swihart for Hamels. I know Amaro catches a lot of flack, but he has a prime age ace with 4 years of control at what now amounts to sub market value. You cannot blame him for asking high. That being said, if it's a one for one swap, that's pretty reasonable. My assumption is that it's more than just that.

 

I would argue Hamels is not prime age. He is still in his prime but leaving it soon. He also sucks against the AL. He is not worth Swihart imo. Swihart is about as untouchable as they come for me. If he is used in a package it should be for a young cost controlled top of the rotation P.

 

They have their own version of Hamels in Owens. They should just keep the money and prospects and see how he pans out.

[BSN07]

The MLB just unblocked Moncada, and other Cuban players already confirmed by the U.S. so they are now available to sign on a major league team. The Phillies also just put Hamels back into play. Many teams including the Yanks and Dodgers will be focused on those guys -- I wonder how it will all work out.

 

He's the last notable signing I see the Sox possibly getting. But the competition is steep. All the big boys are in play for him. I'd like to see the Sox get him but won't be shocked if they don't. I'm hoping the Yanks miss out although they really should be all over this kid and probably are.

[cp176]

He's the last notable signing I see the Sox possibly getting. But the competition is steep. All the big boys are in play for him. I'd like to see the Sox get him but won't be shocked if they don't. I'm hoping the Yanks miss out although they really should be all over this kid and probably are.

 

There are a lot of things that I don't understand and I am ok with that but Moncada is a 19 year old Cuban ss that we really don't know a whole lot about. If the Sox get him, what happens to Bogaerts? I understand all about getting the best players but Boston already has a huge potential glut in the outfield. I wish the kid was a pitcher.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe: Cubs (but of course) claim LHP Drake Britton off waivers from the #RedSox.

[jd98]

There are a lot of things that I don't understand and I am ok with that but Moncada is a 19 year old Cuban ss that we really don't know a whole lot about. If the Sox get him, what happens to Bogaerts? I understand all about getting the best players but Boston already has a huge potential glut in the outfield. I wish the kid was a pitcher.

 

By the time he's MLB ready, the OF glut should be gone. Maybe Castillo and Betts in the OF, Ortiz retired, Hanley at DH, Sandoval or Bogaerts could go to 1B, leaving an OF spot and either SS or 3B available. I don't know if I'd go after him or not. He's going to cost a crazy amount of money for a 19 year old.

[sk7326]

There are a lot of things that I don't understand and I am ok with that but Moncada is a 19 year old Cuban ss that we really don't know a whole lot about. If the Sox get him, what happens to Bogaerts? I understand all about getting the best players but Boston already has a huge potential glut in the outfield. I wish the kid was a pitcher.

 

Shortstops inevitably move somewhere else - the shortstop angle is less about that than getting great athletes and SS/CF is your first place to look there.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would argue Hamels is not prime age. He is still in his prime but leaving it soon. He also sucks against the AL. He is not worth Swihart imo. Swihart is about as untouchable as they come for me. If he is used in a package it should be for a young cost controlled top of the rotation P.

 

They have their own version of Hamels in Owens. They should just keep the money and prospects and see how he pans out.

 

Hamels has a WAR of 27.1 over the past 5 seasons. That's league adjusted, I believe. He also plays in a bandbox. He just turned 31 and still has a good 2 years of prime performance left. Swihart turns 23 in April and has the looks of a franchise catcher. You know who else looked like a franchise catcher? Jesus Montero. And I am so f***ing glad we sold high on him. He could be the next Jorge Posada. Or he could be Dioner Navarro or worse. If you are angling to get a prime aged left handed ace, you are gonna have to give up something of value

[Spudboy]

By the time he's MLB ready, the OF glut should be gone. Maybe Castillo and Betts in the OF, Ortiz retired, Hanley at DH, Sandoval or Bogaerts could go to 1B, leaving an OF spot and either SS or 3B available. I don't know if I'd go after him or not. He's going to cost a crazy amount of money for a 19 year old.

 

Unless he is seen as some kind of generational talent, why waste the effort and money chasing this kid?

 

I'd rather that the Sox went after some kids from high school or college. Less risk all around.

 

We are talking about kids.

 

How accurate can a scout's assessment be of someone this young? Why chase exotic off-shore talent when there are plenty of kids in this country that will have the same chance of being a special MLB player 5 years from now?

Edited February 5, 2015 by Spudboy