The rebuild thread.

[a700hitter]

Farrell's not getting fired. Cherington has already accepted a lot of the blame for this year's performance.

 

The only way Farrell would get fired, IMO, is if there's some friction behind the scenes we don't know about. It won't be because of the 2014 W-L record.

If Ben loads him up with talent in 2015 and they go sub .500 again, he is a goner.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Ben loads him up with talent in 2015 and they go sub .500 again, he is a goner.

 

Long leashes for title winning managers, especially title winning managers on teams that should have been .500. Cherington isn't going to load him up with what he needs. He has too much youth and inexperience in the field and on the mound. You aren't going to forge an entirely new team this offseason. I think 2016 is when Cherington can really make his bones. He should have an idea how the kids look and should have enough pieces to deal for something of value or open the checkbook. Think about the acquisitions you would need to be top dog next yr. 2 starters, in an offseason where the Yanks neeed starters too, at least in the rotation. You have a rookie or unproven young player at C, SS, 3B, and CF and you have a RFer who has recurring ankle and foot issues in Craig. Throw in the fact that Ortiz will be one yr older and Pedroia has shown some wear and tear this yr, and you'd need to spend an ungodly amount of money to win. That being said, if you give 2015 to the kids and see who blossoms, then you can fill those spots internally and fill the rest externally.

[a700hitter]

Long leashes for title winning managers, especially title winning managers on teams that should have been .500. Cherington isn't going to load him up with what he needs. He has too much youth and inexperience in the field and on the mound. You aren't going to forge an entirely new team this offseason. I think 2016 is when Cherington can really make his bones. He should have an idea how the kids look and should have enough pieces to deal for something of value or open the checkbook. Think about the acquisitions you would need to be top dog next yr. 2 starters, in an offseason where the Yanks neeed starters too, at least in the rotation. You have a rookie or unproven young player at C, SS, 3B, and CF and you have a RFer who has recurring ankle and foot issues in Craig. Throw in the fact that Ortiz will be one yr older and Pedroia has shown some wear and tear this yr, and you'd need to spend an ungodly amount of money to win. That being said, if you give 2015 to the kids and see who blossoms, then you can fill those spots internally and fill the rest externally.

Another 90+ loss season and last place finish in 2015 would turn those leashes into nooses for Ben and Farrell.

[jacksonianmarch]

The funny thing is, the sox were quietly billing 2013 as the "bridge yr" and they ended up winning it all. It set their rebuild back. 2014 turned into the re-set yr after dealing away their major pitching assets. You don't replace your #1 and #2 quickly, especially when you had a need at 3, 4 and 5.

[Palodios]

Long leashes for title winning managers, especially title winning managers on teams that should have been .500. Cherington isn't going to load him up with what he needs. He has too much youth and inexperience in the field and on the mound. You aren't going to forge an entirely new team this offseason. I think 2016 is when Cherington can really make his bones. He should have an idea how the kids look and should have enough pieces to deal for something of value or open the checkbook. Think about the acquisitions you would need to be top dog next yr. 2 starters, in an offseason where the Yanks neeed starters too, at least in the rotation. You have a rookie or unproven young player at C, SS, 3B, and CF and you have a RFer who has recurring ankle and foot issues in Craig. Throw in the fact that Ortiz will be one yr older and Pedroia has shown some wear and tear this yr, and you'd need to spend an ungodly amount of money to win. That being said, if you give 2015 to the kids and see who blossoms, then you can fill those spots internally and fill the rest externally.

 

The Red Sox believe they will be contenders in 2015. Otherwise, they would have never traded Lester for a single year of Cespedes and signed Castillo to such an outrageous contract.

 

The Red Sox will go from 70 million in payroll on starters in 2014 to 12 million in payroll on starters in 2015? I seriously doubt that. If they can get lucky and clear one of Craig/Buchholz/Victorino's salaries, this team is going to have big money available. We're talking 60-70 million here, if they want to add players. We will probably see two pitching acquisitions, plus some combination of Buchholz, RDLR, Kelly, Ranaudo next year.

[vjcsmoke]

Does anyone else feel like Buccholz needs to be dealt? I feel like we've hold onto him too long and he has regressed.

He has been named an all-star twice, so when he is good he is really good. But when he is bad, he is a worse than average starter.

 

Only 2 good seasons out of 7 so far. [i'm not going to count his 22 ip in 2007 as a season.]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml?redir

 

I say if we can get a decent return, we should flip him. I don't feel that he is consistent enough to ever be a #1 starter like Lester was for us.

[jacksonianmarch]

You can't get a decent return. You can't give him away. He is overpaid significantly and underperforms.

[Palodios]

You can't get a decent return. You can't give him away. He is overpaid significantly and underperforms.

 

Buchholz is a buy low candidate for some team. He's a guy with ace stuff, and a very flexible contract. There are a whole lot of warts, but teams will go to great lengths to try to find a #1 pitcher. I am not saying he is, or has been a #1 pitcher at any point in his career, but we have seen flashes. Remember that just 14 months ago, this guy was having the best season of any pitcher in all of baseball.

 

I would imagine some team is going to be willing to take the risk on his contract. Realize that in 2014, Josh Johnson was coming off a 6.20 ERA, and came away with a 8 million dollar contract this year. Johnson seems like a perfect comparison here. The Red Sox won't get prospects for Buchh, but they may be able to dump the contract -- there was some clamor over Buch being claimed off waivers.

Edited September 4, 2014 by Palodios

[Bellhorn04]

Ben probably tosses and turns some nights thinking about Buch and what to do about him. There's always that possibility that the guy finally gets it together, and you'd hate to see him doing that in another team's uniform after trading him for not much.

 

Like it or not he'll be part of the 2015 opening day rotation.

[jacksonianmarch]

The fact that he wasn't claimed off waivers shows you what he's worth

[Palodios]

Who said that ? Gammons implied he was claimed.

[curiousd]

This is just after the debacle of the game the Thursday after Labor Day. When Koji gave up the two home runs on splitters that don't break anymore. One would think that either:

 

1. A healthy Koji would still be used for winning games, even though every inning pitched by him at this point increases the chances of his being ruined for 2015, OR

2. Koji would be shut down completely to give him the maximum chance of being effective next year. Instead:

 

3. A completely ineffective Koji with no splitter is being used with the effect of both losing games and maximizing the chances of Koji being ruined for 2015.

 

I don't usually bitch about managers but this procedure by Ferrell seems to be borderline insane.

 

My question for all: What is Ferrell doing??!!

Edited September 5, 2014 by curiousd

[curiousd]

The Orioles are now just two games in back of L.A. for best American League record without an all star quality but injured third baseman (Machado) and without an injured all star quality catcher (Wieters). Both should be ready to go for 2015. Everybody else in AL east playing for wild card in 2015, yes?

 

Revenge of the Duke!

[jad]

Is the idea that since the Sept collapse was inexplicable, as was winning last year, as was this year's debacle, the best policy is just to flail wildly dealing & acquiring players seemingly irrationally, in expectation that the Benign Indifference of the Universe will dump a championship into your lap every few years regardless?

[a700hitter]

Is the idea that since the Sept collapse was inexplicable, as was winning last year, as was this year's debacle, the best policy is just to flail wildly dealing & acquiring players seemingly irrationally, in expectation that the Benign Indifference of the Universe will dump a championship into your lap every few years regardless?

I think that you have aptly described Ben's strategy in a nutshell. He dumped half the team in 2012, acquired half of the 2013 championship team in the off season after 2012. Now, again he has dumped half of the team during the 2014 season. I guess we should expect a bunch of acquisitions in the off season. He has already acquired Kelly, Craig, Cespedes and Castillo. He's well on his way.

[a700hitter]

After seeing the names bandied aboit as bait for Stanton, it is pretty clear that we don't have the chips to acquire him. It is a pipe dream for Red Sox fans. We might have had the chips if XB, Bradley and Middlebrooks had stayed in the minors and had good seasons. Instead, Ben brought thme all to the majors and destroyed their value.

 

NL East Links: Stanton, Harvey, MASN

 

Posted by Steve Adams on Thursday Sep 4th at 8:50pm

While there have been*indications that the Marlins won’t trade Giancarlo Stanton, many writers continue to speculate and discuss the possibility with league sources, and ESPN’s Buster Olney is the latest to*talk Stanton with executives from around baseball*(ESPN Insider required). Olney spoke to many executives about the potential NL MVP, with one telling him,*“No team is going to give up the kind of prospects that is going to be required without knowing they’re going to be able to keep him.”*The “kind of prospects” to which that official refers, according to Olney, is a Top 5 type of prospect that can serve as the anchor for the deal in front of many other well-regarded prospects. One executive half-joked that the Dodgers, for example, should open negotiations by simply offering all three of Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and Julio Urias, as the price will be astronomical. (Olney notes that Miami would ask for two of the three at the very least.) Olney names several teams that have the necessary prospects, including the Cubs (Kris Bryant), Cardinals (Oscar Taveras, presumably, as he doesn’t specify) and Astros (Carlos Correa, presumably) among others. And Stanton’s price tag*on Stanton’s next major contract? Execs polled by Olney pegged him for a deal in the $250-300MM range, though it seems possible for that expectation to rise if he hits free agency after two more elite and healthy seasons.

Here’s more from the NL East…

[a700hitter]

I see that the last place Rangers cut Mike Carp. He is one of many examples of how fortunate we were as a team in 2013. Carp is at best a scrap heap type journeyman, yet he was very useful for the 2013 team. The same goes for Nava. This year our scrap heap guys performed like scrap and our kids performed like kids. Surptrise surprise!! The 2014 team was s***.

[a700hitter]

This is just after the debacle of the game the Thursday after Labor Day. When Koji gave up the two home runs on splitters that don't break anymore. One would think that either:

 

1. A healthy Koji would still be used for winning games, even though every inning pitched by him at this point increases the chances of his being ruined for 2015, OR

2. Koji would be shut down completely to give him the maximum chance of being effective next year. Instead:

 

3. A completely ineffective Koji with no splitter is being used with the effect of both losing games and maximizing the chances of Koji being ruined for 2015.

 

I don't usually bitch about managers but this procedure by Ferrell seems to be borderline insane.

 

My question for all: What is Ferrell doing??!!

I throw my fair share of rocks at Farrell, but I really can't fault him when his closer blows a save, except for the one time when he left him in to finish the inning after blowing the save and his pitch count went to 30. That probably contributed to his tired arm. I will criticize a mange for going to the bullpen if a top line starter like Lester or Scherzer has cruised through 8 innings with a reasonable pitch count and puts in the closer solely because it is a save situation. That was not the case last night. I do share your suspicion of Farrell's managerial abilities for a host of other reasons.

 

People are repeatedly talking about shutting down Koji so that he is fresh for next season. Do we have him under contract for next season, and I just missed that fact? If he is going to be a free agent, how can Farrell just shut him down and prevent him from earning his payday for next season? Some one needs to explain how we could justify shutting him down to Koji and his agent>

[Spudboy]

I see that the last place Rangers cut Mike Carp. He is one of many examples of how fortunate we were as a team in 2013. Carp is at best a scrap heap type journeyman, yet he was very useful for the 2013 team. The same goes for Nava. This year our scrap heap guys performed like scrap and our kids performed like kids. Surptrise surprise!! The 2014 team was s***.

 

I realize that you don't care for Nava as a player and that is your privilege. However, Carp has never done what Nava has done. Nava, after his miserable start to the season in which he hit a paltry .130, returned to his 2013 form and has been hitting over .300. Nava has demonstrated that he can be an everyday player in MLB and that he can hit with a very good average and OBP.

 

Carp has never done that.

[Spudboy]

I throw my fair share of rocks at Farrell, but I really can't fault him when his closer blows a save, except for the one time when he left him in to finish the inning after blowing the save and his pitch count went to 30. That probably contributed to his tired arm. I will criticize a mange for going to the bullpen if a top line starter like Lester or Scherzer has cruised through 8 innings with a reasonable pitch count and puts in the closer solely because it is a save situation. That was not the case last night. I do share your suspicion of Farrell's managerial abilities for a host of other reasons.

 

People are repeatedly talking about shutting down Koji so that he is fresh for next season. Do we have him under contract for next season, and I just missed that fact? If he is going to be a free agent, how can Farrell just shut him down and prevent him from earning his payday for next season? Some one needs to explain how we could justify shutting him down to Koji and his agent>

 

Kojis is a free agent at the end of the season.

 

I am not an expert at the rules of MJB contracts and stuff. If the Sox want to retain Koji for 2015 are they bound to make a QO?

 

If so, I say let him walk. But if not, can they make him an offer of an extension of sorts where he will be paid about what he is making now for one more year?

 

That's what I would do. He seems to like this city and the working environment. He can probably regain his split with rest and proper preparation in the off season.

 

I'm sure that many people will say that he is too old to invest in. I say that if he can regain his dominant form than the Sox should sign him. If there is something physically wrong with him then let him walk.

[Palodios]

Nava has a .370 OBP against righties, and .385 for his career. He's an absolutely bonkers platoon option who will be practically free for several more years. He should never play against lefties again, and shouldn't play centerfield or Fenway RF, but he has his value.

[a700hitter]

I realize that you don't care for Nava as a player and that is your privilege. However, Carp has never done what Nava has done. Nava, after his miserable start to the season in which he hit a paltry .130, returned to his 2013 form and has been hitting over .300. Nava has demonstrated that he can be an everyday player in MLB and that he can hit with a very good average and OBP.

 

Carp has never done that.

Nava has only one useful tool at the major league level. He has a good OBP. That's a big plus and I don't minimize it. The rest of his game is substandard. The part that galls me is his baserunning judgment. For a guy who made it to the majors on hard work and little talent, I would think that his base running instincts would be a lot better. He pulls major rocks on the bases on a regular basis. He runs the bases like a blind man that doesn't understand the rules of the game. In 2013, his OBP was .385 over the full season, plus he hit 12 HRs and slugged .445. This year his OBP is down 50 pts, slugging is down 100 pts and he has only 3 HRs. 2013 was a career year, and I doubt that he can repeat those stats. At his current levels, he just doesn't do enough to warrant a roster spot next season. It is possible that he is a 4th OFer next season, but he will not take time from Cespedes or Castillo. He may pick up time from Victorino, but where does that leave Holt and Betts. Among Betts, Holt and Nava, Nava draws the short straw IMO.

[a700hitter]

Nava has a .370 OBP against righties, and .385 for his career. He's an absolutely bonkers platoon option who will be practically free for several more years. He should never play against lefties again, and shouldn't play centerfield or Fenway RF, but he has his value.

There is no room in our OF for a strictly platoon guy. Injuries force them to play against righties and lefties. Nava just doesn't do enough to make the cut next year.

[jd98]

Kojis is a free agent at the end of the season.

 

I am not an expert at the rules of MJB contracts and stuff. If the Sox want to retain Koji for 2015 are they bound to make a QO?

 

If so, I say let him walk. But if not, can they make him an offer of an extension of sorts where he will be paid about what he is making now for one more year?

 

That's what I would do. He seems to like this city and the working environment. He can probably regain his split with rest and proper preparation in the off season.

 

I'm sure that many people will say that he is too old to invest in. I say that if he can regain his dominant form than the Sox should sign him. If there is something physically wrong with him then let him walk.

 

They're not bound to give him the qualifying offer. That was their original plan, and why he wasn't traded. After his recent horrible stretch, they may do what you are suggesting and offer him 1 year at less than the QO, or just let him go elsewhere.

[dupree]

^Agreed. Who are all the other possible closers available in FA this offseason? I'd like to see the FO retain Koji, but I still think another closer should be brought in to be along side him. I just don't have faith in Edward Mujica being our closer next year.

[a700hitter]

I think that management is going to tell him that he needs to re-establish himself if he wants to have a shot at making the 2015 roster. The guy should just be thankful that he hasn't been dumped as a throw in in a trade.

Will Middlebrooks on winter ball decision: ‘It’s not like I’m going against [the Red Sox]‘

 

09.05.14 at 8:15 am ET

 

By Alex Speier

 

Will Middlebrooks is trying to decide whether to play winter ball this offseason. (Getty Images)

NEW YORK — Ultimately, Will Middlebrooks and the Red Sox want the same thing. Both the player and his team want to see the soon-to-be-26-year-old put in the best possible position to succeed on the field in 2015. Both parties want Middlebrooks to shed the desperate struggles that, after Thursday’s 0-for-3 performance that included a pair of strikeouts, see the third baseman hitting .180 with a .247 OBP and .263 slugging mark.

 

Middlebrooks does not shy from the fact that his year has been dreadful, that he has failed to live up to the standards that he expects from himself. The team wants him to be better. He wants to be better.

 

“I know I’m a good player. When I’m healthy — no excuses — but when I’m healthy, I know the type of player I am. I know the impact I can make in the game,” said Middlebrooks. “That’s not cockiness. I just know the player I am. I know the tools I have. I know what I can do. I’ve done it. That adds to the frustration when things aren’t going well, because I know the player I am. It’s hard not to be able to show it.”

 

Both Middlebrooks and the Sox believe that he’s capable of moving beyond his two seasons of offensive futility, and they’re motivated to make that happen. But despite that common goal, the two are working to achieve consensus on the best means of achieving it.

 

The Sox believe that, more than anything, after missing so much time over the last two years due to four stints on the disabled list (with just 48 games in the big leagues this year, and 29 more in the minors), Middlebrooks needs baseball repetitions, to experience consistent time on the field to improve his pitch recognition and return to being the confident hitter he was in his impressive 2012 rookie campaign. Moreover, the Sox need to see Middlebrooks produce at a high level on a sustained basis if they are to commit to giving him a meaningful role in the big leagues for next season.

 

Middlebrooks doesn’t disagree with the value of repetitions or with the idea that he needs to demonstrate production to earn a big league job for next year. But given the health woes he’s experienced, he feels that the most important thing he can do to ensure his productivity in future years is to use the offseason to get into tremendous shape to avoid the kinds of physical setbacks that have prevented him from gaining the consistent play that he and the Sox both want him to get.

 

And so, for now, Middlebrooks is somewhat hesitant about the team’s stated desire (articulated in recent days by manager John Farrell, GM Ben Cherington and assistant GM Mike Hazen) for him to play in winter ball. He hasn’t ruled out the possibility, but he’s hoping to get more information in order to make the decision about what form his preparations for 2015 should take.

 

“It’s not like I’m going against them. It’s not like a butting of heads. It’s not like that at all,” said Middlebrooks. “They understand where I’m coming from and I understand where they’re coming from. … There hasn’t been a whole lot of conversation about it yet, because we’re still playing ball. We’re still doing this daily. We haven’t really had a chance to sit down and talk about it. There will be more discussions about it.

“It’s tough. I do understand the organizational side of it and what they need to feel or see, but then there’s my side of it — I want to go get healthy, I want to go get stronger, I want to get fresh, turn the page and get ready for next year. It’s a tough decision,” he continued. “I just feel like, do I take the time and go get healthy and let some of these things go away, not swing a bat for a while, or do I get the consistent at-bats in games for a couple months and then have the healing pushed back and take more time for everything?

 

“It’s a tough decision. I don’t know. That decision hasn’t been made yet. There’s going to be discussions we have this month. Ultimately, I think my health is my biggest necessity for my career. I understand what they need to do for next year. I do get that, and I respect that. I’ve been here since I was 18 years old. They’ve done a lot for me.”

 

Asked if winter ball and getting healthy for the coming year had to represent an either/or, whether the two might not be mutually exclusive, Middlebrooks said that he was trying to figure out precisely that matter.

 

“That’s the part I don’t know. That’s the part I’m just not sure of. I don’t know,” he said. “That’s something that time will tell. I don’t have an answer for you.”

 

Still, Middlebrooks understands that the team needs to see more from him than he’s shown to date in 2014 if he is to be the everyday third baseman — or to have even a complementary big league role — next year. He won’t be handed an Opening Day job based on the memories of his performance as a 23-year-old.

 

“I get that. We’re not a team that’s looking, like, OK, maybe we can win in three or four years. That’s not the Boston Red Sox. We want to win now,” said Middlebrooks. “Obviously, this year being almost over and not being great, we’re looking to win next year. We’re not looking to win down the road. I understand

[Elktonnick]

Like I said before Will Middlebrooks isn't the brightest bulb in the chandelier.

[curiousd]

Question about what may happen with Victorino:

 

Where my modern baseball knowledge is at its worst is about the rules involving people under contract. Regarding Victorino, in some sense I worry most about what the Sox do with this guy, not Bradley. Bradley had an even worse B.A. in Pawtucket than in the Bigs since he went back down, which would be expected if he is tinkering with his swing to become an out and out banjo hitter with no hope of power. Maybe JBJ will learn how to do this, and then he could be valuable. There have been such outfielders with successful careers.

 

But because of Victorino's age and injuries I think we will be stuck with Victorino as someone adding to the outfield backlog, unless...

 

(1) We can put Victorino on waivers and someone takes him. Could this work if the RS pay some of his salary??

 

(2) If we have to pay Victorino could the RS send him to the minors anyway?

 

(3) Finally, there is some evidence that once a major league team invests money in someone they will tend to stick with that player against all reason. In 2011, Adam Dunn had a year in which he was kept on the roster of the White Sox and batted .159, hit 11 home runs, had 177 strike outs, had only 42 RBIs and committed 60 outfield errors . But he played on in the majors in any case.

 

Could you guys advise me as to what the Sox are likely to do with Victorino, if he is done, done, done as I suspect?

[Spudboy]

Paladios or Forsythe know a bunch about this sort of thing. So does Jacko.

 

I wonder some of the same things because I suspect Victorino will not be productive next year. Which is not to say that I don't like the guy! I love watching him play when he is more or less healthy/

[Bellhorn04]

(3) Finally, there is some evidence that once a major league team invests money in someone they will tend to stick with that player against all reason. In 2011, Adam Dunn had a year in which he was kept on the roster of the White Sox and batted .159, hit 11 home runs, had 177 strike outs, had only 42 RBIs and committed 60 outfield errors . But he played on in the majors in any case.

 

Could you guys advise me as to what the Sox are likely to do with Victorino, if he is done, done, done as I suspect?

 

2011 was Dunn's first year with the White Sox after they signed him to a 4 year, 56 million deal. They were in no position to do anything but play him with that much money invested. Note: he had 4 errors that year, not 60 - most of his time was at DH, plus some 1B.

 

As for Victorino, assuming he's healthy enough to play ball at the start of the year, I'm guessing the Sox could trade him easily enough if they picked up at least half of his 13 million salary for 2015.