The rebuild thread.

[Spudboy]

Already starting to see writers writing about how the beaning Stanton took this week might have an effect on him long term. Many hitters were never the same after such an injury. Would the Marlins try to unload him this off season to get the biggest load of prospects with the belief that Stanton might not come back the same player?

 

Only if they had information that said that he would not be the same. Of course they now take the risk of Stanton's value plunging if he comes into 2015 flailing at the plate. If that happens the Marlins will get next to nothing from him unless some team just wants to take a chance that he somehow regains his form and production.

 

He is still young so he has that going for him.

[curiousd]

In a different thread Spudboy stated:

 

"I wonder about 3rd base. Are the Sox going to keep WMB and hope that he starts 2015 playing well enough to be the starter going forward???? If not, who will be the chosen one? Can Graig play 3rd at all? He plays 1st okay. Although a sub .100 BA is not going to get it done. Can the Sox move him to another team with the way that he has been failing at the plate?"

 

 

Why not Brock Holt at third base in 2015? Except for the recent concussion he has hit well, and shown guts. And he is left handed with a projected overly right handed line up in 2015.

[Spudboy]

In a different thread Spudboy stated:

 

"I wonder about 3rd base. Are the Sox going to keep WMB and hope that he starts 2015 playing well enough to be the starter going forward???? If not, who will be the chosen one? Can Graig play 3rd at all? He plays 1st okay. Although a sub .100 BA is not going to get it done. Can the Sox move him to another team with the way that he has been failing at the plate?"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why not Brock Holt at third base in 2015? Except for the recent concussion he has hit well, and shown guts. And he is left handed with a projected overly right handed line up in 2015.

 

 

 

I would have mentioned Holt as a choice for 3rd base but I had mentioned it before and no one cared for the idea because of Holt's lack of power and his value as a "super-sub".

 

I think Holt would be a great 3rd baseman. But people are hung up on deriving power from heavier, lumbering players at the position. This is why I suggested Craig since he is under contract and his positions are either locked down or crowded.

[curiousd]

Hi Spudboy,

 

Thanks for the reply. As by my username...just curious.

 

Holt seems like a really natural choice for 3b. Seems like the RS may wind up with power in the outfield between Cespedes, Betts, and Castillo and hopefully they will really fix Napoli's hand in off season for more power there as well . I like idea of Nava as a left handed platoon guy as suggested by Paladius. BTW.....the MVP of the international league title the Sox just won was - blast from the past - one Ryan Lavarnway!

[gojohn99]

Yes nice to see Lavarnway still kicking around in the minors, and great season for the PawSox

[Palodios]

Mookie continues to look like a major leaguer.

[Spudboy]

Mookie continues to look like a major leaguer.

 

He sure does. I just hope the Sox don't trade him off.

[a700hitter]

He sure does. I just hope the Sox don't trade him off.

They should be grooming him to be the 2015 third baseman. That would nicely fill an obvious hole on this team

[seabeachfred]

He sure does. I just hope the Sox don't trade him off.

 

Unless they sign a top quality FA pitcher and another near top quality one, they will need to trade for a type like Hamels......and that will cost plenty and I don't mean dog shits like Bradley, Workman, Middlebrooks and Mujica. Can you name Betts, Swihart, Cecchini and Ranaudo? If not you better start thinking along those lines, and I'll tell you another thing or two. One Vazquez is a chronically weak hitter who we cannot afford to carry in the lineup unless six or seven others are hitting like hell, and Swihart is a good young hitter and in my opinion Cecchini's final month and a half is more like the kind of hitter he is. The front office of Big Dufus Farrell and Cherry Juice might be in the process of making even bigger mistakes and blunders than they did this year----and this year they stunk like a sewer at high tide.

[Palodios]

Unless they sign a top quality FA pitcher and another near top quality one, they will need to trade for a type like Hamels......and that will cost plenty and I don't mean dog shits like Bradley, Workman, Middlebrooks and Mujica. Can you name Betts, Swihart, Cecchini and Ranaudo? If not you better start thinking along those lines, and I'll tell you another thing or two. One Vazquez is a chronically weak hitter who we cannot afford to carry in the lineup unless six or seven others are hitting like hell, and Swihart is a good young hitter and in my opinion Cecchini's final month and a half is more like the kind of hitter he is. The front office of Big Dufus Farrell and Cherry Juice might be in the process of making even bigger mistakes and blunders than they did this year----and this year they stunk like a sewer at high tide.

 

Ben is going to trade for a pitcher. There are more guys available this year than usual. I believe Hamels and Cueto are options 1A and 1B. Latos, Leake, Gallardo are also going to be hanging out there. The Rays only received one top 100 prospect for a year and a half of Price's servicetime, so I am doubting that most of these will cost much more than that. Teams are holding onto their trade chips very tightly nowadays, and that may be big in the advantage of the Red Sox.

[seabeachfred]

Ben is going to trade for a pitcher. There are more guys available this year than usual. I believe Hamels and Cueto are options 1A and 1B. Latos, Leake, Gallardo are also going to be hanging out there. The Rays only received one top 100 prospect for a year and a half of Price's servicetime, so I am doubting that most of these will cost much more than that. Teams are holding onto their trade chips very tightly nowadays, and that may be big in the advantage of the Red Sox.

 

Palodios, the other teams all know how desperate we are and they are not going to let us off so easy in my opinion. First of all let's just say no thanks to Leake and Latos. I call the latter Lactose because he always seems to come apart in the later innings unless he has a six or seven run lead. He is shitbagged when trying to maintain a one or two run advantage. We don't need someone like that. Leake blows so hot and cold that that he could pass for a weather vane. Gallardo is not of ace material, not even close. The first two are in the building as far as I'm concerned but the Phillies play hard ball and will want quality for Hamels. They now know they must rebuild and Hamels is one big chip that might be available but for a steep price. Cuerto might be less expensive but frankly I don't give two shits about how much Prune Face Henry has to pay.....so long as it is money. I'm not looking forward to sending quality prospects away when the "prospects" we kept this year were little more than s*** on rye. He must empty the bank if necessary to get us Jon Lester back and must expend more cash for James Shields. That would be much better for us because I have a strong feeling Cherry Pie and the Big Dufus Farrell would trade the wrong guys who can play and leave us with the stiffs who cannot......does Bradley and Bogaerts sound familiar. Well at any rate we will soon see.

[jacksonianmarch]

A year and a half of Price for a 23 yr old middle infielder with power who struggled in 102 games in the majors as a 22 yr old and a 25 yr old lefty who was lights out in the pen last yr and had been a solid starter in his first extended taste of starting in the bigs. Smyly is a huge get. Powerful lefty pitcher who is just coming into his own and has 4 more yrs of control. Franklin was being asked for all season, and the Rays got him. He's a potential power hitting middle infielder who hasn't done it in the bigs yet, although he is very young. Regardless, the get for Price was pretty good.

[jacksonianmarch]

Getting a pitcher like Cueto is gonna cost you a TON. And you don't have a Drew Smyly to deal for him. If you have a young player in the same position who is doing well in the bigs, then that's a Smyly. You have to pay more if you are gonna go prospects only. And this yr was a good yr to find that high upside guy who could be flipped. Rubby, Webster, Ranaudo, Workman, and Kelly haven't been good this yr. Turning around and dealing them wont be as big as dealing a guy like Smyly

[Spitball]

You have to assume the Reds will sign at least one of Cueto, Latos, and/or Leake. Cueto is the best of the trio and surely the Reds' top objective to resign. Latos has had injury issues this season, but he just purchased a home in Cincinnati. Leake is under-rated and perhaps the most re-signable.

 

The Reds and Red Sox do not really match up well as trade partners unless Boegarts is involved. I suspect they will not be trading with each other.

[curiousd]

Just curious about others opinion......Could it be that RS screwed up WM by trying to fit him into the mold of a high OBP guy who drives up pitch counts? There is some (expert) opinion now that with the advent of the "power bullpen" with specially trained middle relievers with high 90s heat, OBP to get SP out of game early is over rated. (I think this hypothesis can be supported with statistics.) WM may be, as someone posted on Talk Sox, not the "brightest bulb in the chandelier" and is his career consistent with a talent for early pitch slashing but never the subtleties of high OBP hitting?

[dupree]

I think that very well could be exactly what happened to WMB... I hope he plays winter ball and regains his swing and finds his power. I also thinks that with his injuries and trying to come back and show his power and regain his starting job and overdoing it too much with all the pressure he may be feeling to show the FO has hurt him as well. I hope he turns it around and be our starting 3rd baseman of the future but he has to prove himself or he'll be outta here. Unlike many posters on here I would like to give the kid a chance and allow him to become the WMB of old, but on the same token I can agree on a lot of the negative posts made related to his performance this year. I hope he can turn it around so the FO can allocate the available $ to starting pitching instead of spending on a 3rd baseman.

[Elktonnick]

I absolutely agree with the premise that WMB is badly served by the building up the pitch count that permeates the Red Sox hitting philosophy. He frequently would watch one or two perfectly hittable fastballs sail in for strikes only to fan on an off speed pitch, usually a slider, breaking out of the strike zone. He needs to be swinging more at those hittable pitches early in the count. Finally, I can't understand why he is unwilling to play winter ball.

[seabeachfred]

It is now highly probable that opposing teams are on to the Red Sox and a few of the other teams that harp on running up pitch counts. This year it seems more than ever relief pitchers especially are pounding the strike zone with good fast balls while our batters are constantly falling behind the count time and again. When you're hitting from behind the count you are most likely trying to not make out rather than belt a pitch up the alley for a double. I think among the other things that Farrell and Cherington have to contemplate this off season is modify their philosophy on running up pitch counts. All they have to do is check over the at-bats and see what the count was on our hitters before they K'd or were retired on a weak pop up. Even those two underachieving lunkheads should be able to do that and learn something from it........well, maybe.

[Spudboy]

I this is what happened to Middlebrooks then why are other hitters not suffering the same failure?

 

I am not so sure that it's a good idea to condemn the organizations philosophy based on the numbers of one poorly performing player.

 

Maybe he just does not know how to read pitches?

[Elktonnick]

I this is what happened to Middlebrooks then why are other hitters not suffering the same failure?

 

I am not so sure that it's a good idea to condemn the organizations philosophy based on the numbers of one poorly performing player.

 

Maybe he just does not know how to read pitches?

 

Both could be true. The organization philosophy may be outdated. Just as batters and pitchers have to adjust to trends strengths and weakness, organizations have to adjust their philosophies to the changing trends in baseball. This doesn't mean that WMB weakness at reading pitches isn't his problem, it clearly is.

 

WMB aside, the pitch count philosophy made strategic sense when mid relievers weren't as good (or as fast) as starters. The trend now is to have dominant relievers who can throw upwards of 95 but just not that long. Recently I heard in one ML telecast that the average velocity of ML pitching has increased by over 2 mph in the last 3-5 years. If this is indeed true then teams need to adjust their thinking to the new competitive reality.

 

The trend is more noticeable with Middlebrooks but clearly none of the Sox hitters are doing as well as they did in years past. Pedroia is an excellent example. Yes it may have been his wrist but also his tendency to take the first pitch clearly has put him at a competitive disadvantage. Is the wrist or is it the strategic philosophy? Interesting question!

[curiousd]

Thanks for the feedback, folks. Back to the JBJ issue......I personally have now trouble in watching the games where JBJ plays and Cespedes, for instance, does not. But here is an interesting Fangraphs article on slap hitters and their success or lack of same.

 

See: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/player-development-case-study-slap-hitters/

[a700hitter]

I could live with an inning eating bulldog like Shields as our #2.

 

The Red Sox are scouting Royals ace James Shields today, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets, noting that in September, teams typically keep eyes on impending free agents in whom they have interest. The Red Sox have spent much of the season pursuing hitting, signing Rusney Castillo and acquiring Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig, and they’re expected to address their rotation this offseason. Shields is one possible top-tier option, with a return of Jon Lester being another. Previous rumors have connected the Red Sox to Shields.

[a700hitter]

I could also live with Victor Martinez as our first baseman hitting behind Ortiz. Send Napoli, his 50 RBI, his .790 OPS, his beard, and his great clubhouse presence packing. Eat some of his salary to get it done. Get a premium bat like VMart back here or reacquire Beltre. Ortiz can't be our only offense next season. I like the addition of Cespedes, but he is not a 3,4, or 5 hitter.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not every team has the power pen and some that do have guys who are hittable. Driving pitch counts up and getting on base directly correlate to runs.

[Elktonnick]

Not every team has the power pen and some that do have guys who are hittable. Driving pitch counts up and getting on base directly correlate to runs.

 

That doesn't account for the overall increase in ML velocity, a trend that is more likely to continue than dissipate, Moreover driving up pitch counts didn't work very well for the Bosox this year now did it. They were last in batting average and runs scored despite being 9th in OBP. Curious that both the O's and Red Sox had the same OBP 313 yet the the Red Sox were last in runs scored and the O's were 5th. This years stats certainly don't prove the smug sabernetric mantra "Driving up pitch counts and getting on base directly correlate to runs" they don't. It is a bit more complicated than that as any analysis of this year's data will demonstrate.

Edited September 21, 2014 by Elktonnick

[Bellhorn04]

That doesn't account for the overall increase in ML velocity, a trend that is more likely to continue than dissipate, Moreover driving up pitch counts didn't work very well for the Bosox this year now did it. They were last in batting average and runs scored despite being 9th in OBP. Curious that both the O's and Red Sox had the same OBP 313 yet the the Red Sox were last in runs scored and the O's were 5th. This years stats certainly don't prove the smug sabernetric mantra "Driving up pitch counts and getting on base directly correlate to runs" they don't. It is a bit more complicated than that as any analysis of this year's data will demonstrate.

 

The thing is though, the 2013 Red Sox were a 'drive up the count' offence and it succeeded quite well, leading the majors in runs scored. If it fails the next year is it because the system no longer works, or just that the hitters collectively stunk?

 

I do get the argument that this system may not work as well any more, though. I think, in fact, that part of the reason we're seeing run-scoring continue to slide is that pitching and defense have the edge now with technology - computerized analysis of hitter's tendencies dictating pitching patterns, fielding positioning etc.

[Elktonnick]

The thing is though, the 2013 Red Sox were a 'drive up the count' offence and it succeeded quite well, leading the majors in runs scored. If it fails the next year is it because the system no longer works, or just that the hitters collectively stunk?

 

I do get the argument that this system may not work as well any more, though. I think, in fact, that part of the reason we're seeing run-scoring continue to slide is that pitching and defense have the edge now with technology - computerized analysis of hitter's tendencies dictating pitching patterns, fielding positioning etc.

 

That is exactly right. Baseball is not a static game. That is the underlying paradox of sabermetric analysis. Baseball evolves as teams adjust to different strategies and tactics. Sabermetrics has taught clubs that lesson. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. What worked in the past may not work in the future as teams adjust to each other. The team that is more nimble at adjusting to these future trends will have the competitive edge.

[seabeachfred]

That doesn't account for the overall increase in ML velocity, a trend that is more likely to continue than dissipate, Moreover driving up pitch counts didn't work very well for the Bosox this year now did it. They were last in batting average and runs scored despite being 9th in OBP. Curious that both the O's and Red Sox had the same OBP 313 yet the the Red Sox were last in runs scored and the O's were 5th. This years stats certainly don't prove the smug sabernetric mantra "Driving up pitch counts and getting on base directly correlate to runs" they don't. It is a bit more complicated than that as any analysis of this year's data will demonstrate.

 

I went round and round on this with two former posters on this board who conveniently disappeared when the collapse came and their fixation on Bogaert and elation at the Drew signing blew up in their faces, not to mention ours and the team. Sabermetrics has a place but there are too many fans who look at that theory as the New Testament. It is certainly not that at all and once again I bring up what those Sabersolons kept saying was not important......RBI's. This year they only have to look at Napoli's lack of same and the total choking of Bogaerts in just about all these situations when a clutch RBI hit was needed to see how many one run games we lost and how many potential victories got away. You can get on base all you want but unless someone gets those runners home it means little if anything. As for clutch hitters I have always wondered why there are some here who insist that is not important or overused. They only have to look at David Ortiz since he came to the Red Sox in 2003 to see that their myopic thinking on that needs to he hauled out with yesterday's trash.

 

You know, I actually has more confidence in Bradley with men on base than I did Bogey, but it became a Mexican Standoff when Jackie simply couldn't buy an RBI or even a hit or two as the summer descended upon our doomed team.

[Elktonnick]

I also notice the disappearance of the saber geeks lately.

[jacksonianmarch]

That doesn't account for the overall increase in ML velocity, a trend that is more likely to continue than dissipate, Moreover driving up pitch counts didn't work very well for the Bosox this year now did it. They were last in batting average and runs scored despite being 9th in OBP. Curious that both the O's and Red Sox had the same OBP 313 yet the the Red Sox were last in runs scored and the O's were 5th. This years stats certainly don't prove the smug sabernetric mantra "Driving up pitch counts and getting on base directly correlate to runs" they don't. It is a bit more complicated than that as any analysis of this year's data will demonstrate.

 

OBP is the most important factor. But, having no power whatsoever drives down run scoring ability. The sox have the 15th OBP in the game, they're the median for the most part. That being said, the delta between them and the #24 team is .007, ie not a difference for the most part. The Red Sox, OTOH had the 25th SLG in baseball and the worst in the AL. The delta between them and the median team (Houston) is 0.02, which is a bit more significant. The delta between them and the 29th team (Atlanta) is .003, ie not significant at all. So they're only signiciantly better than the bottom 6 teams in OBP and barely better than the worst team in the game in SLG. Put that together and they have the 23rd OPS in baseball, and only 0.010 above the 27th worst team in baseball. Makes sense that theyre the #26 team in baseball in R.