2013 Yankee Hot Stove Thread

[seabeachfred]

You are correct, Fred. The Reds' second biggest offensive plus last season, after Votto, was their leadoff hitter Choo. What the Reds needed last year, and again this year, is a big right handed bat to insure Votto sees some pitches to hit. If Choo couldn't spark that offense then Gardner certainly can't.

 

Batista for Phillips (plus a prospect or two) makes sense. The salaries balance. The Reds need a right handed bopper to protect Votto, and the Blue Jays need a lot more production out of second base. I realize the Blue Jays probably don't want to trade Batista, but this trade would be a lot more along the lines of what the Reds really need.

 

Makes a lot of sense that potential trade Spitball and not to be too cynical but for that reason it probably won't get done.

[rjortiz]

You sound like a Yankee fan's perspective. You make several assumptions and they are all leaning towards making a case for Gardner being worth Bailey for the Reds.

 

You didn't read what I wrote. I said that this trade would still be a win for the Yankees. I just don't believe it's completely lopsided.

 

You assume Hamilton is a poor fielder (he is a very good fielder)

 

Again, you clearly didn't read what I wrote. I never said that Hamilton was a poor fielder.

 

and you said Hamilton has a below .300 OBP (not true)

 

I never said this either, although I could see how you could be confused. I said if the Reds thought that Hamilton was not going to a great CF, and have a sub .300 OBP, (which is entirely possible, because he only had a .308 OBP in AAA in 2013, and is projected to have a .278 OBP by fangraphs) then Brett Gardner would be a big upgrade over Hamilton. A below .300 OBP speedster with just above average skills in CF isn't a valuable player. The sub .300 OBP was a projection, not something he did in the past.

 

I also mentioned that the Reds could play both of them at the same time. Gardner in LF, Hamilton in CF. That's probably the most optimial situation. Gardner's a 3-4 WAR player in LF, Bailey's a 3/4 WAR at SP. Pretty much a wash in 2014 value. That being said, I think the Reds are going to struggle this year, so they would be better off trading Bailey for players they control for multiple years.

 

and you mention Bailey having his break out year in 20013 (he actually has been good for at least three years and has two no-hitters) and you say he is homerun prone(He ranked third among the Reds' starters).

 

Bailey's three year WAR totals - 1.1, 2.5, 3.7

Bailey's three year FIP totals - 4.06, 3.97, 3.31

 

He was 4/5 type in 2011, a 3/4 type in 2012, and knocked at #1 starter status in 2013. His K/9 totals spiked, he got more GB's, and allowed fewer HR's. His breakout year was in 2013.

 

No hitters are nice accomplishments, but I don't put too much value in them. Henderson Alvarez has one.

 

He finished behind Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake in HR/9 last year. They are even more HR prone than Bailey is, so it isn't surprising to see him finish behind them. Finishing behind them also doesn't take away his career 1.01 HR/9 mark. He made some strides last year, but since we are talking about a hypothetical trade to the Yankees those numbers are a good bet to increase.

 

The Reds would never take the risk of making a qualifying offer to Gardner. Saddled with losing a draft choice, he might take it, and they'd be screwed. The Reds can't afford to operate that way. They couldn't gamble on an offer to Arroyo, and they wouldn't Gardner.

 

Why would Gardner take a 1/14 offer when the bidding is probably going to start around 4/48? Even if he accepts it, they would be paying a very reasonable price on a short-term deal to a good player. I don't understand why Arroyo is used as an example. Arroyo is older, had a below average 2013, and hasn't been good since 2008. There was no way a team would outbid 1/14 for Arroyo plus surrender a draft pick.

 

The Reds are better off keeping Bailey for one year if the return is one year of Gardner. Replacing Arroyo's and Bailey's innings would be difficult enough, but they also have to be prepared to replace Latos (elbow), Cueto (lat), and Cingrani (back).

 

Again, I'm not arguing that Gardner would be a guy they should target for Bailey. My argument was that this trade wouldn't make the Yankees that much better in 2014.

 

Personally, I think they would be better off flipping Bailey at the deadline when they are in a distant 3rd behind the Cardinals and Pirates.

 

 

Basically, your suggestion is that the Reds can be better by getting rid of Bailey and replacing Choo with Gardner. It doesn't make sense. If the Yankees are willing to take Phillips and his contract, that would work for the Reds.

 

Nope. The only suggestion I made was that I wouldn't make the deal on either side. For the Yankees, trading Gardner forces Soriano into everyday LF, and Vernon Wells as the everyday DH. That would erase any upgrade that Bailey would provide to the rotation. For the Reds, trading Bailey for a player who is going to be a free agent isn't the best long term plan for them.

 

As for throwing in Phillips, that would be a nice gift from the Reds. 4/50 isn't a big overpay with baseball salaries booming, and he's still a useful player who would be an upgrade over the garbage they currently have at 2B.

Edited January 9, 2014 by rjortiz

[rjortiz]

Batista for Phillips (plus a prospect or two) makes sense. The salaries balance. The Reds need a right handed bopper to protect Votto, and the Blue Jays need a lot more production out of second base. I realize the Blue Jays probably don't want to trade Batista, but this trade would be a lot more along the lines of what the Reds really need.

 

That's a terrible deal for the Blue Jays.

[Palodios]

Rumor has it that the magic number for Arod to accept punishment is a 100 game suspension. That comes down to around 10 million still on the luxury cap for the Yankees.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankees are keeping tabs on Johan Santana. Don't have a problem with that at all. If healthy, the guy knows how to pitch. I wouldn't pencil him into a rotation, but having him as depth is a good idea. I'd offer a MiLB deal with incentives for big league games started

[BSN07]

While team president Stan Kasten said in a radio interview yesterday not to predict the Dodgers to land Masahiro Tanaka, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that the Dodgers have made it known that they will go "all out" to sign the Japanese ace and "certainly won't be outbid."

This could get interesting.

The Yankees have designated Vernon Wells for assignment, according to ESPN's Buster Olney

 

Not surprising with the abundance of Outfielders they have, they only owed him 2.4M while LAA has to pay 18M lol

[seabeachfred]

This could get interesting.

 

 

Not surprising with the abundance of Outfielders they have, they only owed him 2.4M while LAA has to pay 18M lol

 

Well BSN we could use a little excitement around here. You have to admit it's been a little slow and boring lately.

[Palodios]

As s***** as Arod's full year sentence is for Red Sox fans hoping the Red Sox won't be able to afford Tanaka, it may be better than we think.

 

At 38 years old, he lost most of the season with an injury. At 39, he will be banned from baseball. At age 40, he will need to come back -- WITHOUT STEROIDS-- and the Yankees will still be on the hook for 3 more years. I don't think he will risk his livelihood at this point -- another steroid ban could cost him 40-50 million.

 

So we're talking about a guy who hasn't played a full season since age 37 trying to make a comeback at age 40.

[jacksonianmarch]

ARod is gonna be out of baseball after 2014. My guess is he's released

[Bellhorn04]

ARod is gonna be out of baseball after 2014. My guess is he's released

 

It seems more likely to me the Yankees will use whatever leverage they have to get him to negotiate a buyout at a lower amount. Then he can try to sign with someone else a la post-suspension Manny.

 

That's all just guessing though.

[Palodios]

One report I read said the Yanks might hold onto him just in case he juices again and gets caught. Will he still take a spot on the 40man ?

[jacksonianmarch]

While suspended, he will not. Once reinstated, he will

[mvp 78]

@BertDbacks: #Yankees have spent half a BILLION dollars this winter & still have Kelly Johnson likely starting at 3B & Brian Roberts at 2B.

[Behindenemylines]

@BertDbacks: #Yankees have spent half a BILLION dollars this winter & still have Kelly Johnson likely starting at 3B & Brian Roberts at 2B.

 

That the $pankees on a budget! Right!

[jacksonianmarch]

Yanks are considering a run at Stephen Drew. This makes too much sense for it not to happen, IMO. We'd only lose a second round pick and our current 2b has a long history of injury. And his lefty swing in the Bronx could produce some more power than it did in Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

Yanks are considering a run at Stephen Drew. This makes too much sense for it not to happen, IMO. We'd only lose a second round pick and our current 2b has a long history of injury. And his lefty swing in the Bronx could produce some more power than it did in Boston.

 

"Yanks won't be signing anymore notable FA's this off-season, Cashman said yesterday the bank is basically closed."

 

Source: Divinity

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

"Yanks won't be signing anymore notable FA's this off-season, Cashman said yesterday the bank is basically closed."

 

Source: Divinity

 

POTY nominee

[pinstripezac]

"Yanks won't be signing anymore notable FA's this off-season, Cashman said yesterday the bank is basically closed."

 

Source: Divinity

 

FWIW this says different

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24418305/with-tax-no-longer-an-issue-yankeesare-now-looking-closely-at-drew

 

personally I don't get it

 

it's one thing

 

if we knew jeter wasn't going to play

 

but I C nothing that says he's worth moving to 3B

 

while I have no idea what the difference on defense at 3B is between the 2

 

I don't C much difference offensively between drew and KJ

 

and I certainly don't want a guy playing 2B for his 1st time

[pinstripezac]

Buster Olney‏@Buster_ESPN3m

Am told Yankees are still not weighing a run at Stephen Drew. In other words: Status quo.

 

 

 

Ken Rosenthal‏@Ken_Rosenthal3m

Drew would fit well with #Yankees, but sources say team essentially has reached spending limit. That could change, but more likely move……would be an exchange of salaries in a trade - say, Ichiro ($6.5M) for a comparably priced reliever. Drew remains logical target for #Mets.

Edited January 24, 2014 by pinstripezac

[seabeachfred]

Buster Olney‏@Buster_ESPN3m

Am told Yankees are still not weighing a run at Stephen Drew. In other words: Status quo.

 

 

 

Ken Rosenthal‏@Ken_Rosenthal3m

Drew would fit well with #Yankees, but sources say team essentially has reached spending limit. That could change, but more likely move……would be an exchange of salaries in a trade - say, Ichiro ($6.5M) for a comparably priced reliever. Drew remains logical target for #Mets.

 

Logical target for them Pin? Yes. Realistic target for them? Be serious. The Mets are a cheap second rate outfit who have done wonders to alienate their declining fan base in Queens, Brooklyn and elsewhere. I think if I didn't know better they were already throwing in the towel for 2014. Maybe a little early for that but they need to do a helluva lot more than they have if they want to do anything but suck stale air this season.

[Behindenemylines]

Buster Olney‏@Buster_ESPN3m

Am told Yankees are still not weighing a run at Stephen Drew. In other words: Status

 

Ken Rosenthal‏@Ken_Rosenthal3m

Drew would fit well with #Yankees, but sources say team essentially has reached spending limit. That could change, but more likely move……would be an exchange of salaries in a trade - say, Ichiro ($6.5M) for a comparably priced reliever. Drew remains logical target for #Mets.

 

Who are we kidding the $pankees have no spending limit.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think they are negotiating. Cashman never overplays his hand. Drew is probably begging for multi year offers. It'd be great to get him on a 2yr $16 mil deal

[pinstripezac]

Who are we kidding the $pankees have no spending limit.

 

all I know is

with all this talk about a crazy spending spree

they are still about 12 mill less this yr than last yr

[Palodios]

Yankees interested in Ervin Santana. This is getting ridiculous... I don't understand how the rest of the league has stood for this all these years. Edited January 27, 2014 by Palodios

[Divinity]

Yankees interested in Ervin Santana. This is getting ridiculous... I don't understand how the rest of the league has stood for this all these years.

 

I can think of over 250,000,000 reason's in the past decade.

[jacksonianmarch]

Where have you heard about the Yankees being interested in Santana? It makes sense, but I haven't seen it anywhere. Surprisingly, after we got Tanaka, instead of Garza getting $20 mil a yr, he signed a pretty team friendly deal and he is the most seasoned and best performing pitcher on the US market. Santana has shown he can be bipolar in his production, but he was ace like last yr. The word going around on Santana has been a 3 yr deal with $12 mil a yr guaranteed. That is chump change, and if that's the money, go for it. But everything I have read says the Yankees are done

[a700hitter]

Where have you heard about the Yankees being interested in Santana? It makes sense, but I haven't seen it anywhere. Surprisingly, after we got Tanaka, instead of Garza getting $20 mil a yr, he signed a pretty team friendly deal and he is the most seasoned and best performing pitcher on the US market. Santana has shown he can be bipolar in his production, but he was ace like last yr. The word going around on Santana has been a 3 yr deal with $12 mil a yr guaranteed. That is chump change, and if that's the money, go for it. But everything I have read says the Yankees are done

•Eight teams, including the Rockies, Orioles, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers, have interest in Ervin Santana, Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish writes. (Earlier today, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik seemed to imply the Mariners would not be heavily involved on Santana.) Other teams could enter the picture as well. The Cubs also asked about Santana, but draft-pick forfeiture is a problem for them, even though their first pick is protected.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/quick-hits-yankees-santana-white-sox-phillies.html

[jacksonianmarch]

The only way Ervin comes to NY is if he falls into our laps. He's a 31 yr old durable pitcher who has reached 200IP 3 of the last 4 yrs. Would have been 4 of 4 if he didn't suck so bad in 2012. He has a good walk rate and a mediocre K rate. His stuff is top notch. He's fallen victim to the longball, but his G/F ratio has been rising for a few yrs now. In the Bronx, he wouldn't be a 3.24ERA guy, probably more like a 4ERA guy due to increased talent in the division and the homer park factor. If he fell to us for a deal no longer than 3 yrs with an annual value of no more than $12 mil or so, then we have to take it. All we'd forfeit is a second rounder at this point and he'd be our #5.

[BSN07]

3 years at 12M per means the Yanks come in and blow everyone out of the water with 5/85M offer with a vesting 20M 6th year lol

[seabeachfred]

Yankees interested in Ervin Santana. This is getting ridiculous... I don't understand how the rest of the league has stood for this all these years.

 

I feel your anger, frustration and can tell you I feel the same way. We can do something about this Pal but it would take a complete Red Sox team effort to do it---and it could be more easily said than done. IT WOULD BE TO GO ALL OUT THIS YEAR AND ONCE AGAIN WIN THE WORLD SERIES. I would guarantee you the Yankees would be totally discombobulated and it would be them angry and frustrated and would make them spend themselves into bankruptcy. The worm has turned my friend. Whether you or anyone wants to believe it or not, the Yankees now react to what we do, not the other way around and 2013 drove them to the wall. If we could just pull it off I think Con Edison might be inclined to turn the gas off in the South Bronx come late this coming October.