2013 Yankee Hot Stove Thread

[User Name]

Source?

[pinstripezac]

Source?

 

 

source 4 what

Divinity post is both accurate & common knowledge

[Divinity]

Source?

 

from the words of Cashman himself @ 3:45 in this interview.

 

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/10115548/brian-cashman-says-done-same-thing-robinson-cano

[User Name]

source 4 what

Divinity post is both accurate & common knowledge

 

It wasn't common knowledge for me. I simply wanted to see where the info came from. Chillax mr. haiku.

[marklmw]

Scott Soshnick of Bloomberg.com spoke with some certified public beancounters and they determined that Cano’s deal ($240M/10 yrs) will be worth an extra $42M due to favorable income tax rates. Washington has no state income tax; New Jersey, where Cano lives lived has an income tax rate at 8.97%. To wit:

 

The Yankees would have had to pay Cano about $265 million for him to keep the same amount that he will with Seattle…

 

Cano’s net pay over the life of his Seattle contract is about $128 million… His net pay over the life of the Yankees offer, he said, would have been about $86 million.

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2013/12/10/canos-net-deal-with-ms-worth-42m-more-than-yanks-bid/#idc-container

There must be an accounting program where you plug in a professional athletes schedule and it spits our the tax obligations by state, perhaps by city too. For Cities that have an income tax I would imagine that they want their share if the stadium is within city limits.

[Palodios]

Boone Logan -> Rockies. Another crazy deal at 3/15, but I'm sure they'll miss his career .591 OPS against lefties.

 

He's definitely another guy like Hughes who will benefit from a change of scenery... 4.22 ERA at Yankee Stadium and 2.00 ERA away in 2013.

[User Name]

You mean they'll miss the fact that he held lefties to a .591 OPS. And Logan was a strange case, since he was essentially a lefty specialist who had a reverse home/road split even though he pitched in a stadium that should have had no bearing on his success. Not sure going to Colorado will help his numbers.

[Palodios]

Infante also off the board. What an odd offseason for the yanks.

[jacksonianmarch]

These are my final thoughts on Cano and I wish him well in Seattle.

 

Cano is 31 years old. He signed a deal through 2023. He will be 40 for that entire season, and turn 41 during the playoffs. And during that time, he'd be making $24 mil per year. Financially, it is a deal that is unbeatable. It doesn't matter where Robby calls home, it is where he earns his paycheck. And in NY, you not only have a state income tax, you also have a NYC income tax, which is pretty steep. Washington has no state income tax. The $42 mil extra might actually be a little light if the Yankees wanted to match dollar for dollar. That being said, Cash was given an offer of 10 yrs $235 mil to counter, so that is what we have to go off of. But, we just didn't want to be locked into another ridiculous contract a la ARod. And we couldn't match that, else we'd be dealing with the same garbage we are dealing with f***Rod. We don't need to pay for past performance. I have said before that whomever gets Robby is going to get 3 yrs of elite performance, 2 yrs of above average performance and after that he'll be a minus. The M's effectively are paying Cano for the first 5 yrs of his deal and have a whopping $120 mil albatross from age 37-41. That's insane.

 

And then there is Ellsbury. I hear the WEEI pundits talking about Ells and Cano as if their deals are the same. Their AAV's are similar, well, Cano's is $1.5 mil per annum more, but the length and the age don't fit. Ells is 11 months younger than Cano. He is also signed for 7 yrs instead of 10. Ells contract finishes up in 2020 when he'll have just turned 37. Cano's contract ends after Cano turns 41, big difference. The M's are paying for years 38-41 that the Yankees aren't paying for. They got Ells without the albatross. They are also banking on the change of park to increase his power back to 2011 levels. If they are right, this contract is a f***ing steal. If they are wrong, they still likely get 5-6WAR production for the next 4 yrs and have a 3 yr albatross. Whereas Cano is probably at least a 5 yr albatross contract at a higher AAV. It made sense for Seattle to do something drastic to bring the fans back and legitimize their lineup. It did not make sense for NY to do the same when they have more funds and don't have the desperation of needing to prove they are actually viable. They can spread those funds around and in doing so, create a better team 1-9. I think they have done that in the lineup, although I bet they have one or two more position players to add. They haven't done that in the rotation yet, but lets see what happens with Tanaka

[User Name]

You are conveniently ignoring the skillset difference. Because Ellsbury lacks power (you know 2011 was an anomaly, so stop dreaming) and has no above-average inherent OB abilities (his ability to get on base depends a lot on his speed) he is likely to decline quicker into his deal than Cano. As you said some time before "Signing Ells to a 6-7 year deal wouldn't be smart because speed doesn't age well", and i can find the quote for you if you want. Stop rationalizing and be consistent.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have said already that I think Ells will be worth a 5-6 WAR for the first 4 yrs. I said Cano will be worth the money for 5 yrs. Cano gets 2 extra years of solid production, IMO, due to his differing skillset. Also, I looked at the spray chart, and being completely unscientific, based on the distance of his shortest RF homerun (down the Pesky pole line), there are 10 other hits that would have been out in YS. Assuming half of those were hit in NY, that's 5 more HRs. Not a ton, but still 14HR is a lot better than 9

[User Name]

I'm not buying what you're selling. Ellsbury's contract is every bit as risky as Cano's. If Ellsbury can't play CF at an elite level while replicating the high BABIPs (this is more likely than the high-level D IMO) for at least five years of the contract, it's unlikely the Yanks can escape calling the contract an albatross. Cano is a good enough hitter that if his offensive output remains solid and he ends up moving to 3B or 1B, he's a lot more likely of providing value at the back-end of the contract than Ellsbury is. And if we account for health, while Ellsbury's injuries have been "freaky" Cano has been the model for durability throughout his career.

 

In the end, this is debating what's worse: Anus-on-fire diarrhea or eye vein popping constipation. The truth is that both contracts are likely to end up being an albatross, but you're seriously undermining just how much better a ballplayer Cano is than Ellsbury, and that is mental masturbation in my humble opinion.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am fully aware that Cano is the better player. I am also aware that Ells is younger, signed for 3 less years and he is moving into a park conducive to hitting for power from the left side.

[User Name]

Except that his problem isn't the park, it's lack of power, and even though he's "younger", he hasn't been nearly as consistent and has a skillset that lends itself to more sudden and precipitous decline.

[jacksonianmarch]

All true. Though we have seen power from Ells. This isn't like a guy who never hit more than 9 and I am expecting him to hit 20 pulling it out of my ass. The guy hit 31 playing in a park that is hard for a lefty to pile up power numbers. I expect Ellsbury to hit more homers in YS. Will he hit enough to be a middle of the order hitter? That remains to be seen

[User Name]

Remember Brady Anderson? He hit 50 once! ONCE!

[Northern Star]

All true. Though we have seen power from Ells. This isn't like a guy who never hit more than 9 and I am expecting him to hit 20 pulling it out of my ass. The guy hit 31 playing in a park that is hard for a lefty to pile up power numbers. I expect Ellsbury to hit more homers in YS. Will he hit enough to be a middle of the order hitter? That remains to be seen

 

Of course he won't, because he's not the prototypical middle of the order hitter. Remember when the Mets batted Jose Reyes third? I LOLd.

[jacksonianmarch]

I do remember Brady Anderson. I also remember he was on the juice. I'm not saying Ells is gonna hit 30 again. But is 20 in YS so far fetched?

[Palodios]

I do remember Brady Anderson. I also remember he was on the juice. I'm not saying Ells is gonna hit 30 again. But is 20 in YS so far fetched?

 

Ellsbury in 2011 -- 32 HR.

Ellsbury in the rest of his career -- 33 HR.

 

He averages 13 HR per 150 games, or 8 HR per 150 if you don't include his 2011 season. Moving from 8 HR a year to 20 seems like a jump to me.

[Northern Star]

I do remember Brady Anderson. I also remember he was on the juice. I'm not saying Ells is gonna hit 30 again. But is 20 in YS so far fetched?

 

You know, much as I would like to say it is, the fact that pop-ups go out there gives your suggestion some credence.

[Northern Star]

Remember Brady Anderson? He hit 50 once! ONCE!

 

Was Bret Boone on the juice when he had that rediculous season for the Mariners? It's been so long I can't remember.

[jacksonianmarch]

Brett Gardner went 4 seasons from 06-09 hitting a total of 8 homers with 09 being his only year in the house that George built. His last two healthy seasons, he hit 15, and the guys swing makes Juan Pierre's look like a power cut. A 330 foot flyball to RCF is a homer. In Fenway, it's 385. Provided good health, I expect our 3 new non ancient pickups (Johnson, McCann, Ellsbury) to hit 60+ homers between them. In terms of Beltran, I can't provide an estimate since he's old as f*** and Father Time can strike at any moment.

[Palodios]

Brett Gardner went 4 seasons from 06-09 hitting a total of 8 homers with 09 being his only year in the house that George built. His last two healthy seasons, he hit 15, and the guys swing makes Juan Pierre's look like a power cut. A 330 foot flyball to RCF is a homer. In Fenway, it's 385. Provided good health, I expect our 3 new non ancient pickups (Johnson, McCann, Ellsbury) to hit 60+ homers between them. In terms of Beltran, I can't provide an estimate since he's old as f*** and Father Time can strike at any moment.

 

Gardner didn't get to the big leagues till 2008 -- he probably was focusing on doing the things he was best at in the minors, and added some minor power later on.

In his first long season in the majors, he played 100 games and hit 3, which probably scales to 5-6 if he played the full season. The next few seasons he hit 5, 7, 8. You're pulling nothing out of nothing here.

[Behindenemylines]

Don't underestimate the pricks. Also, I think Girardi is actually a pretty good manager.

 

New York media is saying one of the reasons Cano left was because he had some problems with the way Girardi used him. The New York media is quickly turning on this guy. He went from the next great $pankee to a selfish player who was all about the $$$$$.

[seabeachfred]

I'll give this one to Jacko. McCann and Ells should be able to his more than 20 homers playing in that launching pad of a ballpark. I've never read anything about wind currents in that place but the ball flies out of there much more frequently than it did in the old YS---yet the new park is, what, two blocks away? I think even Beltran might have a big first year there so they are ok power wise. But they have some deep holes and the division is very tough....as usual. Then, again, it will be tough for us as well.

[seabeachfred]

New York media is saying one of the reasons Cano left was because he had some problems with the way Girardi used him. The New York media is quickly turning on this guy. He went from the next great $pankee to a selfish player who was all about the $$$$$.

 

Does that surprise you BEL? That's the way they do it in New York....you leave there for someplace else and they destroy you. However, we've been guilty of the same thing here too with that bastard Lucchino always willing to verbally blast a player who goes elsewhere. Where Cano is standing on very shaky ground is when he comes out with this respect ********. He didn't get his money from the Yankees so he accuses them of lack of respect for him. That bogus and we all know it. Of course, if you remember after our dramatic 2004 WS Title we heard the same s*** from Pedro Martinez before he fled to the Mets and a four year contract that we refused to give him because we felt three was enough. Pedro lasted one and a half seasons there before his arm and elbow gave out. Now Pedey is back with us but I don't think he now thinks we disrespected him or he would never have returned to the fold in whatever capacity he now is in for the Red Sox.

[jacksonianmarch]

New York media is saying one of the reasons Cano left was because he had some problems with the way Girardi used him. The New York media is quickly turning on this guy. He went from the next great $pankee to a selfish player who was all about the $$$$$.

 

This wasn't the New York media. This was Cano's friend who said he didn't want to bat in the 2 hole because it decreased his value. Thus far, this has been a pretty amicable parting, IMO, and most Yankee fans wish he wasn't gone

[jacksonianmarch]

Gardner didn't get to the big leagues till 2008 -- he probably was focusing on doing the things he was best at in the minors, and added some minor power later on.

In his first long season in the majors, he played 100 games and hit 3, which probably scales to 5-6 if he played the full season. The next few seasons he hit 5, 7, 8. You're pulling nothing out of nothing here.

 

Pal, in the minors, Gardy hit a total of 9HR in 1475ABs. In the bigs, he's hit a total of 23 in 1932 ABs. Of the 23HR's he has hit since the new Yankee Stadium was built, 16 of them were hit at home. The guy's HRs are typically by accident as he flies out down the RF line, except in NY, its a homer. The park increases lefty power immensely. His MiLB HR rate is 1 ever 164ABs, His away rate the last 3 yrs is 1 every 110ABs. His rate at home over the same span is 1 every 52ABs.

[User Name]

Brett Gardner's NYS Home Runs with a Fenway Park overlay:

 

2013:

 

http://hittrackeronline.com/overlay/overlay_1387042497_41597015.jpg

 

I'm sure maturing physically didn't have anything to do with it right? Also, as the Tracker shows, it's not like his HR's last year were mostly cheap shots, as you pretty much fabricated in your post above.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Brett Gardner went 4 seasons from 06-09 hitting a total of 8 homers with 09 being his only year in the house that George built. His last two healthy seasons, he hit 15, and the guys swing makes Juan Pierre's look like a power cut. A 330 foot flyball to RCF is a homer. In Fenway, it's 385. Provided good health, I expect our 3 new non ancient pickups (Johnson, McCann, Ellsbury) to hit 60+ homers between them. In terms of Beltran, I can't provide an estimate since he's old as f*** and Father Time can strike at any moment.

 

I will make a sig bet with you that Johnson, McCann, and Ellsbury do not combine for 60+ HRs