2014 Roster Projections

[jung]

The snag is that some owners want the posting fee to be counted towards the luxury tax.

 

Wouldn't that require some sort of amendment to the current CBA? If so I cannot imagine there would be the votes to approve making an amendment, let alone the votes to decide on a particular amendment.

 

Anything LT relates has got to go back to the CBA I would think.

[marklmw]

I found some stats on the probability of making the show based on the round a player is drafted. If the Sox are compensated for 3 FA's along with their round 1 and 2 picks = 5 total high picks ... with a little luck 2-3 of these picks will make it to the show.

 

http://new.berecruited.com/athletes/521209/blog/061113-question-what-percentage-of-mlb-draft-picks-make-it-to-the-mlb-salary

 

comments welcome!

[vjcsmoke]

Here's a rumor concerning Boston making a bid for Giancarlo Stanton. This would fill the power vacuum in the outfield to replace Ellsbury's loss.

 

http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2013/11/red_sox_could_land_marlins_giancarlo_stanton_with_bold

 

I wouldn't give up Owens or XB. But I think any other prospect is fair game, and perhaps Doubront or Workman could be an attractive part of the trade package as cost controlled ML ready starting pitching.

 

Now if we don't make a huge move for Stanton, what I'd like to see is for the Red Sox to sign Beltran to a short term deal. I think he could be a good firt for us and keep CF occupied until JBJ becomes fully ready to take the starting role.

[marklmw]

Here's a rumor concerning Boston making a bid for Giancarlo Stanton. This would fill the power vacuum in the outfield to replace Ellsbury's loss.

 

http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2013/11/red_sox_could_land_marlins_giancarlo_stanton_with_bold

 

I wouldn't give up Owens or XB. But I think any other prospect is fair game, and perhaps Doubront or Workman could be an attractive part of the trade package as cost controlled ML ready starting pitching.

 

Now if we don't make a huge move for Stanton, what I'd like to see is for the Red Sox to sign Beltran to a short term deal. I think he could be a good firt for us and keep CF occupied until JBJ becomes fully ready to take the starting role.

 

No doubt that Stanton is a stud. I think it would be a great deal as long as Boston can keep Owens, Bogaerts, JBJ. We can put Stanton in RF, move Vic to Center, Platoon in LF ... let JBJ play another season at AAA and come up as needed.

No problem including any combination of WMB, Webster, Workman, Doubront, Dempster, Barnes, Brentz in any deal for Stanton. Would need to sign Drew if WMB were included in the deal. Having Stanton, Bogaerts, Pedroia, JBJ would be a great foundation for years to come.

[Dojji]

I would want Stanton only to play LF if he came to Boston. Let him fill Manny's role and focus on hitting as much as possible. besides, not the best RF in history and our RF asks for a player who's defensively up to code in ways that most offense first guys aren't.

 

Before he came to Fenway Manny was an RF too after all.

 

But I don't put any stock in the rumor. It seems too fantastic to believe that Cherington is going to meet the Marlins' price.

[marklmw]

I would want Stanton only to play LF if he came to Boston. Let him fill Manny's role and focus on hitting as much as possible. besides, not the best RF in history and our RF asks for a player who's defensively up to code in ways that most offense first guys aren't.

 

Before he came to Fenway Manny was an RF too after all.

 

But I don't put any stock in the rumor. It seems too fantastic to believe that Cherington is going to meet the Marlins' price.

 

It's nice to dream.

[Dojji]

Just as long as you remember that that's what you're doing.

[Dojji]

I found some stats on the probability of making the show based on the round a player is drafted. If the Sox are compensated for 3 FA's along with their round 1 and 2 picks = 5 total high picks ... with a little luck 2-3 of these picks will make it to the show.

 

http://new.berecruited.com/athletes/521209/blog/061113-question-what-percentage-of-mlb-draft-picks-make-it-to-the-mlb-salary

 

comments welcome!

 

How many of those guys make it to the show the way Jeff Bailey did, or Devern Hansack, or Jonathan Van every, or any one of a dozen others that come by in any given year, stay one year, maybe two, maybe three if they're very lucky and are then gone, frequently through no actual fault of their own.

 

Just making the show is a great accomplishment of coure, but if you want to talk about the odds of these guys pulling down multiple productive, healthy above average seasons, I'd say the odds have to be lower than that.

[vjcsmoke]

Anyone interested in Choo? He would be a real great fit for the leadoff spot if Ellsbury leaves.

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2013/11/11/5090786/red-sox-free-agent-targets-shin-soo-choo

 

His OBP and pitchers per plate appearance are sick. Best walk rate in MLB this past season?

[marklmw]

How many of those guys make it to the show the way Jeff Bailey did, or Devern Hansack, or Jonathan Van every, or any one of a dozen others that come by in any given year, stay one year, maybe two, maybe three if they're very lucky and are then gone, frequently through no actual fault of their own.

 

Just making the show is a great accomplishment of coure, but if you want to talk about the odds of these guys pulling down multiple productive, healthy above average seasons, I'd say the odds have to be lower than that.

True that! Makes all proven MLB superstars like Stanton all the more enticing.

[User Name]

Lavarnway. He's no bigger a risk than anyone else we'd bring in on a budget, and I don't want a contract blocking the catcher's position if it can be avoided without hamstringing the team..

 

Dojji, that's not the question i asked. The question is what course should the Red Sox take if they're not confident with their internal options.

[RedSoxNC84]

Anyone interested in Choo? He would be a real great fit for the leadoff spot if Ellsbury leaves.

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2013/11/11/5090786/red-sox-free-agent-targets-shin-soo-choo

 

His OBP and pitchers per plate appearance are sick. Best walk rate in MLB this past season?

 

 

 

Choo is going to command a pretty high payout, similar to the one Ellsbury is looking for. This probably isn't the answer.

[User Name]

Choo has a better offensive skillset than Ellsbury, but is several notches below him defensively. He's looking for Werth money and will probably get it, so no thanks.

[Bellhorn04]

I would want Stanton only to play LF if he came to Boston. Let him fill Manny's role and focus on hitting as much as possible. besides, not the best RF in history and our RF asks for a player who's defensively up to code in ways that most offense first guys aren't.

 

Before he came to Fenway Manny was an RF too after all.

 

But I don't put any stock in the rumor. It seems too fantastic to believe that Cherington is going to meet the Marlins' price.

 

It wouldn't be a big shock if the Sox make a play for Stanton. It makes sense, with Ortiz winding down and with the list of prospects we have.

[User Name]

It wouldn't be a big shock if the Sox make a play for Stanton. It makes sense, with Ortiz winding down and with the list of prospects we have.

 

What would be a shock is the Marlins trading him. They have a ton of talent coming up the pipelines and control of Stanton for a couple more years. They should be able to contend before they have to trade him.

[Bellhorn04]

What would be a shock is the Marlins trading him. They have a ton of talent coming up the pipelines and control of Stanton for a couple more years. They should be able to contend before they have to trade him.

 

Right. MLBTR projects he'll only get about 5 million this year through arbitration. But if he has a big year his arbitration price for 2015 will be much higher, right?

 

I guess it all comes down to how the Marlins management wants to go.

[a700hitter]

Whether you know anything or not is beside the point, but I don't have to pretend to be a scout. I'm not one; I have done scouting as I've reiterated to you many times. Besides I was GIVING MY OPINION of what I thought of the catching situation and in my opinion we don't need to go out and sign someone when we have in-house candidates like Lavarnway. I know you and others like mvp don't think all that much of him and that's fine, but I happen to and think he is worth a shot. Guys with that kind of power potential should be given a look, and, besides, I hear he has worked a little at first base as well. Who knows about whether he could work out there for us or not.

 

As for the World Series win I am still floating on air and finished my 2013 ensemble of players and news headlines in my room. I am totally and completely out of my head for what our team did despite what you may think. As for the upcoming flesh market I want to make sure we sign those players who fit in and can help us but by no means are signed to contracts that will block any of our young prospects---Bradley, Cecchini, Brentz, Swihart, Vasquez, or any of the young pitchers like Renaudo or Owens. Now back to baseball if you please.

I am still basking in the glow too. This off season is flying by. In a couple of weeks, I will be making my Spring Training plans.

[a700hitter]

Lavarnway. He's no bigger a risk than anyone else we'd bring in on a budget, and I don't want a contract blocking the catcher's position if it can be avoided without hamstringing the team..

It's now or never for Lavarnawy. If they aren't going to give him his chance in 2014, they should part company with him.

[seabeachfred]

I am still basking in the glow too. This off season is flying by. In a couple of weeks, I will be making my Spring Training plans.

 

This off season is flying by Ted but so far there has been little action on the free agent front. My guess is that players are parrying around with their agents trying to ascertain just how sincere some of the offers they have received or will receive are. I take it you're heading down to Fort Myers again. I was there in 2006 and

2007 and even met VA Fan down there the latter year. I might make such trip again some year hopefully but right now I am aiming at the Opening Home Series next April. I go to that one quite often, and. besides, I love when they bring that WS Title flag down on the Green Monster. It really gets my blood roiling.

 

I'm with you on Lavarnway. I just don't understand why Farrell is reluctant to give that guy a chance. He had power and a good arm and while his defense is only average he has gotten better the past two seasons in that regard. I mean Salty wasn't a whiz defensively either and yet he got better and kept his job. I do not want to go outside and get someone for two years who may block a good young catcher-hitter like Blake Swihart, nor any other young player who may be ready to play for us.

[User Name]

Who said they're reluctant to give Lavarnway a chance next season? It's November 18th. And if they were, it would be warranted, since he sucks at C.

[sk7326]

Who said they're reluctant to give Lavarnway a chance next season? It's November 18th. And if they were, it would be warranted, since he sucks at C.

 

I think it's more likely they give him a chance at 1B than at C, at least as far as major reps goes.

[Dojji]

Dojji, that's not the question i asked. The question is what course should the Red Sox take if they're not confident with their internal options.

 

The fact is that there isn't a lot out there that isn't either too expensive to be cost-effective, or really not even as dependable as those young players. if they don't believe in those youngsters, it still might be the best bet to take the least flawed one and trot him out there as if they did, and see what happens

 

Personally I think you're slightly asking the wrong question. the question isn't about whether they're comfortable or confident with these rookies. They're rookies, there's only so comfortable you an possibly be with them.

 

The question is about whether the risk taken in those young catchers is worth the reward. And the fact is, we simply don't know. But we also don't know what we'd get out of any of the veterans we could reasonably acquire to catch fulltime for us. Especially with Mauer moving to first base next year. It's *all* a crapshoot, might as well gamble on the guys who cost the least and are the easiest to set aside if something better comes along.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Dojji

[User Name]

The fact is that there isn't a lot out there that isn't either too expensive to be cost-effective, or really not even as dependable as those young players. if they don't believe in those youngsters, it still might be the best bet to take the least flawed one and trot him out there as if they did, and see what happens

 

Is it that hard to answer the actual question?

[Dojji]

Is it that hard to answer the actual question?

 

I'm bucking your premise because I don't think it's a good one, UN.

[User Name]

I'm bucking your premise because I don't think it's a good one, UN.

 

It's a simple question based on off-season freebasing. It doesn't matter whether or not you like the premise. If you don't like it, then don't answer the question.

[Dojji]

It's a simple question based on off-season freebasing. It doesn't matter whether or not you like the premise. If you don't like it, then don't answer the question.

 

Do you have any idea how few of the available free agent catchers are actually better than replacement level? beyond the obvious 3 (McCann, Salty, Ruiz) there isn't really that guy who's consistently above 0 WAR. If we assume Salty's gone, Ruiz is over 35 so that's not a great risk, and McCann is going to be courted by every team not happy with their catching situation -- which is pretty much every team. I just don't see that really smart bet out there right now.

[Dojji]

*dives into his sources and actually does some serious research*

 

Hang on -- anyone know what the latest is on A. J. Pierzynski? A short term (2 year max) contract there might be an interesting Plan C. He seems to have gotten the job done on both sides of the ball last year and I can't see a catcher his age attracting big years from anyone.

[User Name]

Do you have any idea how few of the available free agent catchers are actually better than replacement level? beyond the obvious 3 (McCann, Salty, Ruiz) there isn't really that guy who's consistently above 0 WAR. If we assume Salty's gone, Ruiz is over 35 so that's not a great risk, and McCann is going to be courted by every team not happy with their catching situation -- which is pretty much every team. I just don't see that really smart bet out there right now.

 

So you're not going to answer the question?

[seabeachfred]

Who said they're reluctant to give Lavarnway a chance next season? It's November 18th. And if they were, it would be warranted, since he sucks at C.

 

That's your opinion of him as catcher. He has a better arm than Salty and calls a good game according to his minor league mentors. I say they're reluctant to give him a chance because they haven't up to now. Yes, his receiving could use some work but he is a hard worker and as an IVY League graduate as well as a fellow Californian, he is astute enough to learn well enough to be able to help the team. Then there is that power he possesses and certainly that could make up for all that lack of defense you keep harping on. Then, again, that's your opinion.

[mvp 78]

TIL, growing up in CA means you're astute!

 

The Kardashians thank you.