So lets be real, Are the Sox really any good

[SoxSport]

They've had a great year--so far. You got to be good--and lucky.

[Brennan]

They've had a great year--so far. You got to be good--and lucky.

 

 

 

I would say a lot more good than lucky. Schedulers love to f*** the Sox six ways to Sunday.

 

As far as the question "are they good?", I would say they answered that in a historic fashion considering where they left off last year.

[TylerD]

I really think we just need to wait and see what happens. I don't know if they are as good as their record indicates, but they have beaten every team numerous times this year. There really isn't a team that frightens me that much. However with that being said if they did somehow lose in the first round I can't say I would be super upset as I already call this season a success and exceeded my expectations. Lets just wait and see

[jung]

I am not even sure I understand the discussion. As Bill Parcells used to say....you are what you are.

 

Now I will grant you that there are things about ML post season play that make it distinctly different from regular season play. However, we often get into different versions of this discussion. What is a good team? Is a good team, a collection of numbers....of stats that should perform better than some other collection of numbers and stats wearing a different uni? Is a good team a collection of ballplayers that have a process by which they generate offense and a particular defensive skill set coupled with terrific starting pitching? I would suggest that either could be a good team but that the latter actually has a better chance to win the bulk of at least its regular season games than the former does.

 

As for the post season....IMO, you have to have the horse filling the 1 hole in the rotation in post season ML play. I posted up something a few days ago that shows how important winning game 1 of the ML post season series is to the eventual outcome. Having the big horse in the 1 hole gives you a great chance to win that game. If you can win that game, you could be off to the races in the ML post season. But to my way of thinking the WS Series winner is neither a good team or a bad team. It is what it is....the WS winner. There is really nothing else to be said at that point.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Well, I'd have to say the answer to this question is now a definitive "yes". I hope Richard Feynman here gets his funding.

[Dojji]

Studying the effects of telling a community of red sox fans on a red sox message board that the Sox are not that good..... if you really could not predict the outcome, you probably really are a university researcher. Thanks for using tax money on such important work.

 

Now now, as with any research, repeatable results are king. Science isn't all test tubes and explosions, you spend a lot of time confirming things you already know so you have something solid to go on when you take your next step into an area of knowledge.

 

that said, this putz is less of a researcher than I am, at least the phone surveys I do go somewhere and get used. But asking questions you already know the answer to is one of the things that research always has to do in the early stages. If you start off with assumptions rather than questioning them too, your results aren't going to necessarily be repeatable, since everyone's assumptions are slightly different. I don't expect the people on the calls I make to get that either, that type of frustration from the laymen is just part and parcel of the job.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Dojji

[Behindenemylines]

Because the baseball season is a marathon and only a few teams make the playoffs I think you can safely say that the Sox are pretty good. Having the best record in the American League and being in the AL East (Had four teams with winning records) also are strong indictors that the Sox are pretty good. Now that they have reached the playoffs they must prove once again that they belong. So far the Sox have started out pretty good against the Rays. There is something about their building that gives me pause though. Hopefully, Buchholtz can take us home.

[jung]

The Trop is such a terrible place to play that I think the only way to even be marginally comfortable playing there is for it to be your home park and thus the place where you play 81. It works for the Rays unfortunately as they have some additional confidence playing there...almost like if you were Sox and you knew DeJesus was going to be lost out there in LF at Fenway.

 

At the Trop you know something idiotic is going to happen....like losing it in the lights or losing it in the roof or having it bang off the catwalk.

 

I guess there is no feasible way out of the contract the Rays have with the place. So, even if they want to leave, they are stuck.

 

I can't see playing there being worth more than one win for the Rays though......if that.

[FredLynn]

I would say a lot more good than lucky. Schedulers love to f*** the Sox six ways to Sunday.

 

As far as the question "are they good?", I would say they answered that in a historic fashion considering where they left off last year.

 

They are exactly as good as their record says they are. They are the best team in baseball right now; they led all of baseball this year in runs scored and OPS, and their ERA+ was fourth in the AL-good enough certainly to win the WS. They have a bona fide ace in Buchholz whose ERA has been below 2 all season and won 97 games even though their ace missed three months and even though they lost two closers for the year. Lester and Lackey have both pitched like #2 SP this year.

Their turnaround from last year is truly extraordinary. I have been trying to find the record for such a turnaround, but I can't find it. The 28 win turnaround has to be close to that record I would think. Yeah, they are that good. And frankly, although it would be disappointing if they failed to at least make it to the World Series this year, the season cannot be regarded in any other way than a smashing success.

[Palodios]

The Trop is such a terrible place to play that I think the only way to even be marginally comfortable playing there is for it to be your home park and thus the place where you play 81. It works for the Rays unfortunately as they have some additional confidence playing there...almost like if you were Sox and you knew DeJesus was going to be lost out there in LF at Fenway.

 

At the Trop you know something idiotic is going to happen....like losing it in the lights or losing it in the roof or having it bang off the catwalk.

 

I guess there is no feasible way out of the contract the Rays have with the place. So, even if they want to leave, they are stuck.

 

I can't see playing there being worth more than one win for the Rays though......if that.

 

As a player, I do not think there is anything nearly as satisfying as going to an away playoff game, and realizing the park isn't actually full.

[sk7326]

I am not even sure I understand the discussion. As Bill Parcells used to say....you are what you are.

 

Now I will grant you that there are things about ML post season play that make it distinctly different from regular season play. However, we often get into different versions of this discussion. What is a good team? Is a good team, a collection of numbers....of stats that should perform better than some other collection of numbers and stats wearing a different uni? Is a good team a collection of ballplayers that have a process by which they generate offense and a particular defensive skill set coupled with terrific starting pitching? I would suggest that either could be a good team but that the latter actually has a better chance to win the bulk of at least its regular season games than the former does.

 

As for the post season....IMO, you have to have the horse filling the 1 hole in the rotation in post season ML play. I posted up something a few days ago that shows how important winning game 1 of the ML post season series is to the eventual outcome. Having the big horse in the 1 hole gives you a great chance to win that game. If you can win that game, you could be off to the races in the ML post season. But to my way of thinking the WS Series winner is neither a good team or a bad team. It is what it is....the WS winner. There is really nothing else to be said at that point.

 

Flags fly forever. The 2006 Cardinals need to apologize for being an 83-79 team who hit a September swoon. Now the name of the game is scoring runs and preventing them. The Red Sox did both in tandem better than just about anybody - those are the essential skills here. Now it don't mean jack now because it's a 4 week tournament, and even after hanging 19 runs up against 2 of Tampa's 3 best starters ... losing 3 in a row is the equivalent of a bad weekend in the regular season. It could happen, we have turned the trick before several times. It would not be a choke job or anything historic if Tampa won this series. Dem's the breaks.

 

Basically in October, everything which evens out over the long season - no longer evens out. The Red Sox are the best team in baseball this year - but they are (as any team is) capable of a s***** weekend. We saw Tampa deliver one, particularly flailing at the stuff they are good at (catching the ball and pitching). The Red Sox regular season is the GM's success - not that the players and manager aren't responsible (duh) but if you are measuring Cherington, measuring by the 97 wins is the right way to go. A GM can't get the ring - that is on the players, managers and the usual luck and stuff which come with any tournament.

 

Basically this weekend, the players for Tampa have been shaky enough that it is hard to really give a grade on the tactical managing aspect of thing. That said, Farrell (who has not been great at this part of the job) did very well Saturday. And tomorrow, coming off the travel day and with a chance to put the Rays away - you figure Koji is there for the 6 outs if they need em.

[User Name]

I posit that Farrell was actually pretty bad on Saturday.

 

1) Why go with a clearly tired Lackey in the 6th with a fresh BP and an off-day afterwards?

 

2) Leaving Breslow to pitch to Longoria wasn't disastrous, but it could have been. He has a noticeable platoon advantage against lefties.

[Palodios]

I posit that Farrell was actually pretty bad on Saturday.

 

1) Why go with a clearly tired Lackey in the 6th with a fresh BP and an off-day afterwards?

 

2) Leaving Breslow to pitch to Longoria wasn't disastrous, but it could have been. He has a noticeable platoon advantage against lefties.

 

Farrell trusts Breslow, Tazawa, and Uehara. I don't think he is confident in the rest of the relievers -- I understand matchups are important, but most of them have ERAs hovering around 5.

[FredLynn]

I posit that Farrell was actually pretty bad on Saturday.

 

1) Why go with a clearly tired Lackey in the 6th with a fresh BP and an off-day afterwards?

 

2) Leaving Breslow to pitch to Longoria wasn't disastrous, but it could have been. He has a noticeable platoon advantage against lefties.

 

Actually you are right Username. Breslow does have a noticeable platoon split this year. He has been MUCH better vs RHH (OPSa of .581) vs LHH (.704). In addition, he has pitched to more RHH than LHH this year (135 v 102). For his career his OPSa splits are nearly identical: .644 v 642. He gets hitters out from both sides of the plate, and he has been our second most effective RP for a long time. I think it was a good decision by Farrell. Maybe I am misreading your post.

Edited October 7, 2013 by FredLynn

[User Name]

Farrell trusts Breslow, Tazawa, and Uehara. I don't think he is confident in the rest of the relievers -- I understand matchups are important, but most of them have ERAs hovering around 5.

 

That's why you bring Tazawa for the righty. He has some trouble with inning in which there's a man on base, but Longoria's split is noticeable enough where you have to play that matchup. Zobrist has a better split against righties, but he's nowhere near as dangerous as Longoria. I bring in Tazawa for Longoria-Zobrist, and let him try to get at least two outs in the next inning, then Uehara for four outs.

 

He also had Morales as a matchup lefty had he wanted to go that route, and Dempster has been converted to relief to deal with mid-inning matchups. He had options.

 

I means six outs for Uehara, given the off-day.

Edited October 7, 2013 by User Name?

[User Name]

Actually you are right Username. Breslow does have a noticeable platoon split this year. He has been MUCH better vs RHH (OPSa of .581) vs LHH (.704). In addition, he has pitched to more RHH than LHH this year (135 v 102). For his career his OPSa splits are nearly identical: .644 v 642. He gets hitters out from both sides of the plate, and he has been our second most effective RP for a long time. I think it was a good decision by Farrell. Maybe I am misreading your post.

 

I meant Longoria has a noticeable platoon advantage against lefties. The way i see it, Breslow should have started a clean 6th. Even though he's been good against righties, a big part of that is the fact that they've avoided using him against middle-of-the-order righties like Longoria, who'd been on a tear the last two weeks, and who hit lefties more the 150 OPS points better than righties this season.

[FredLynn]

I meant Longoria has a noticeable platoon advantage against lefties. The way i see it, Breslow should have started a clean 6th. Even though he's been good against righties, a big part of that is the fact that they've avoided using him against middle-of-the-order righties like Longoria, who'd been on a tear the last two weeks, and who hit lefties more the 150 OPS points better than righties this season.

 

Got it. I thought I must have misinterpreted what you wrote. That said, do you really trust Tazawa vs Longoria? Farrell could have played it that way, but Breslow is also a good choice: our best RP (outside of our closer) vs their best hitter. Hard to fault Farrell for allowing Breslow to remain in the game IMO.

[User Name]

Got it. I thought I must have misinterpreted what you wrote. That said, do you really trust Tazawa vs Longoria? Farrell could have played it that way, but Breslow is also a good choice: our best RP (outside of our closer) vs their best hitter. Hard to fault Farrell for allowing Breslow to remain in the game IMO.

 

None of this would be a discussion had Breslow started a clean 6th though. Lackey was clearly out of gas.

[VA Sox Fan]

I cannot believe this thread has lasted this long. Should have died a long time ago.

[Palodios]

That's why you bring Tazawa for the righty. He has some trouble with inning in which there's a man on base, but Longoria's split is noticeable enough where you have to play that matchup. Zobrist has a better split against righties, but he's nowhere near as dangerous as Longoria. I bring in Tazawa for Longoria-Zobrist, and let him try to get at least two outs in the next inning, then Uehara for four outs.

 

He also had Morales as a matchup lefty had he wanted to go that route, and Dempster has been converted to relief to deal with mid-inning matchups. He had options.

 

I means six outs for Uehara, given the off-day.

 

Maybe Farrell used the guys in the wrong order, but I don't think he wants to overuse Uehara yet. I also don't trust the group of relievers he has... they all are starters who haven't quite figured out to excel in a relief role. Morales ended well, but can you trust statistics against September teams?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I cannot believe this thread has lasted this long. Should have died a long time ago.

I think it's been repurposed.

 

That's what we do on talksox.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it's been repurposed.

 

That's what we do on talksox.

 

LOL well put.

[VA Sox Fan]

I think it's been repurposed.

 

That's what we do on talksox.

 

We do? Give some troll the time of day? News to me.

[SoxSport]

Talk about extremes. MB4Life and Sox Sport put the Red Sox in the gutter and YOUK puts them in the penthouse. Which way to go? Look, their 20-8 start out of the gate might have been a fluke, and drawing from last year's debacle it could have been. Now with only five games remaining in the regular season I don't see how anyone can say that their 95-62 record is any kind of fluke. They taken on all comers, stumbled and bumbled along the way, made their way through a couple of squalls, but for the most part they have taken all the comers on and have prevailed. They have owned the Yankees, beaten the Rays and Jays, taken care of the Guardians and Tigers and have gotten even with the Rangers. Their record after 157 games cannot be ruled a fluke even by an anti-Red Sox contingent, let alone Red Sox fans.

Where I do find some agreement with MB4 and Sox Sport is that if we play the A's or Tigers or Rays the series will be challenging and we could wind up on the short end just as we could take care of them and advance to the WS. Those playoff series are crapshoots, three out of five and four out of seven. If our pitchers are dealing, our hitters are performing and our defense allowing the opposition only three outs in an inning our chances are as good as anyone else. It depends how we're playing when the post-season bell chimes.

 

Most people, myself included, had them figured as a close to .500 team this year give or take a few games. Maybe an 85 win team. But they do indeed have some chemistry, which is impossible to predict, and the manager and coaching staff have clicked. Enough good things have happened to overcome the adversity (injuries to 2 closers). The lineup by and large has remained healthy, and some players are having surprisingly good seasons (Nava, Carp, Drew 2nd half). Gomes and Napoli have had big hits--in fact you go down the lineup and everybody seems to have gotten big hits. Plus the pitching has been steady--Nieves and Farrell deserve credit for that. Cherington deserves credit for the FAs (minus Dempster--they'd like to have that $26 mil back). There have been good trades and bad trades. They got stiffed on the two closer deals, but struck gold signing Uehara. Peavy is helping them right now.

 

Just keep in mind this isn't the As or the Pirates. This is a $170 mil team spent to the hilt. They are doing what they are paid to do. But still they have struck gold on team chemistry--on the field. You can't predict that, but once you get it, don't be tempted to change it.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

We do? Give some troll the time of day? News to me.

Trolly's long gone. He doesn't care.

[User Name]

Maybe Farrell used the guys in the wrong order, but I don't think he wants to overuse Uehara yet. I also don't trust the group of relievers he has... they all are starters who haven't quite figured out to excel in a relief role. Morales ended well, but can you trust statistics against September teams?

 

Again, this would be a non-discussion had he started Breslow on a clean 6th. Milk two IP out of him/Taz, and no need to overuse Uehara. Lackey was clearly gassed.

[User Name]

Most people, myself included, had them figured as a close to .500 team this year give or take a few games. Maybe an 85 win team. But they do indeed have some chemistry, which is impossible to predict, and the manager and coaching staff have clicked. Enough good things have happened to overcome the adversity (injuries to 2 closers). The lineup by and large has remained healthy, and some players are having surprisingly good seasons (Nava, Carp, Drew 2nd half). Gomes and Napoli have had big hits--in fact you go down the lineup and everybody seems to have gotten big hits. Plus the pitching has been steady--Nieves and Farrell deserve credit for that. Cherington deserves credit for the FAs (minus Dempster--they'd like to have that $26 mil back). There have been good trades and bad trades. They got stiffed on the two closer deals, but struck gold signing Uehara. Peavy is helping them right now.

 

Just keep in mind this isn't the As or the Pirates. This is a $170 mil team spent to the hilt. They are doing what they are paid to do. But still they have struck gold on team chemistry--on the field. You can't predict that, but once you get it, don't be tempted to change it.

 

Did Dempster steal your lunch money in HS? Jesus.

[jete02fan]

pretty self evident...playing great D..raked Moore and Price for 19 runs other than CBuch pitching a shutout..can't see them being any better than that...

[sk7326]

The bringing out Lackey for the 6th was not great - although going right to his winning bullpen was. You had the extra day and the blowout the night before - so 6 outs of Uehara was there if needed. The thing with Lackey is a bit of the "old timey baseball" things Farrell does at times which is a little baffling given how smart he is and how much the team uses the newer information. Either way, using Breslow aggressively was a good call - and the thing you do when you have a bullpen that you do not have to worry about. And tonight, back to more of the same.

 

It also does give some clue as to what a lot of folks on the board worried about. How do you solve the Red Sox issues with the middle of the bullpen? By skipping it entirely.

[sk7326]

pretty self evident...playing great D..raked Moore and Price for 19 runs other than CBuch pitching a shutout..can't see them being any better than that...

 

They have been excellent. Tampa has been poor - especially poor at the stuff they NEED to be good at. Of course Shaugnessy wrote his article about how the series is ovah, but that's silly. 3 games is a bad weekend. That said, have to like how the team has approached these fireballers.