Ellsbury out

[marklmw]

More on Ellsbury and his upcoming contract negotiations:

 

Lets consider the last four years in terms of games played and OPS.

 

Player A: 147/.756, 132/.847, 154/.704, 122/.801

 

Player B: 18/.485, 158/.928, 74/.682, 134/.781

 

Player A is a bit faster; player B has a MUCH better throwing arm. There is just a two year age difference. Player A costs $13M and is signed for just two more years; Player B is likely to cost $18M or more over at least six years.

 

Which is the better deal?

 

Look, No doubt that Victorino had a great year but I do not get your point. Victorino caught fire at the end of the season and he played solid defense throughout the year. I read a stat where Ellsbury was ranked as the top defensive outfielder in the game with Victorino ranked 5th. If the Sox can keep them both they should. We had two closers on the DL this season eating 11M of the 2013 payroll. There are people on this forum that think Ellsbury is worth 15m per year and that his legs are going to give out on him in 3 years time ... I am not buying this at all. Suppose they can get him at 18M and we are overpaying him by 3m per year ... big deal. Maybe we sign Abreu at 10M / 6 and he turns out to be worth 18M per year. Napoli is going to make 13M for 2013 and he is a FA after this season. Signing Ellsbury would be a no-brainer if not for Jackie Bradley Jr. waiting in the wings at $500K per.

[jung]

Wow I would like to see those rankings. Vic might be somewhere around 5th but there is no way that Ells is the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Too many guys out there with very similar range and way better arms. No question that Ells would definitely be in the top 10 for ML defensive outfielders and I would think Vic would be there as well with Ells a bit ahead of Vic even given Vics obvious advantage in arm strength and accuracy.

 

That said I don't think you can rank "deals" unless they are deals made in the same year. Ells is coming up in the FA market this year. I think the Sox will make him a very attractive offer. I also think they will be outbid by some team that is looking for a great ballplayer that can also be the face of their franchise. We already have a face of the franchise guy...Pedey. So I think there will e a point where the Sox will not be willing to go for Ells.

[a700hitter]

If Ells walks, is Granderson a FA?

[User Name]

Wow I would like to see those rankings. Vic might be somewhere around 5th but there is no way that Ells is the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Too many guys out there with very similar range and way better arms. No question that Ells would definitely be in the top 10 for ML defensive outfielders and I would think Vic would be there as well with Ells a bit ahead of Vic even given Vics obvious advantage in arm strength and accuracy.

 

That said I don't think you can rank "deals" unless they are deals made in the same year. Ells is coming up in the FA market this year. I think the Sox will make him a very attractive offer. I also think they will be outbid by some team that is looking for a great ballplayer that can also be the face of their franchise. We already have a face of the franchise guy...Pedey. So I think there will e a point where the Sox will not be willing to go for Ells.

 

This is spot on. I personally think the Sox should go slightly above Pence money for Ellsbury, since he is a better ballplayer but has a questionable health track record. The problem is that some team is going to offer him middle-of-the-order superstar money and the Sox won't match that.

[sk7326]

Here is the thing using the Victorino comparison. Victorino was a really shaky deal at the signing - a lot of projection for a guy who had a poor season with increasingly intolerable splits. The Red Sox blew the market away with that signing. 32 years old, coming off of a bad season with increasing evidence he could not hit righties ... that did not make for an $13M player. The Red Sox did a good job projecting the defensive impact - more than what a lot of folks expected - and when Victorino scrapped switch hitting, his ghastly platoon split went with it. He doesn't even have to be that good the next 2 seasons for the contract to be a major win for the Red Sox.

 

Ellsbury has a lot more going for him entering the market - he was arguable the Red Sox best player his last 2 healthy seasons. Of course there is the rub - and because he is 30 and not 27/28 like BJ Upton was entering the market last year, it is harder to close your eyes and dream of any yet-to-be-realized upside. (never mind that Upton fell on his face, there is at least more prime years to project at his age) I'd like him back - but it is hard to commit the years that undoubtedly somebody will offer him.

[marklmw]

Here is the thing using the Victorino comparison. Victorino was a really shaky deal at the signing - a lot of projection for a guy who had a poor season with increasingly intolerable splits. The Red Sox blew the market away with that signing. 32 years old, coming off of a bad season with increasing evidence he could not hit righties ... that did not make for an $13M player. The Red Sox did a good job projecting the defensive impact - more than what a lot of folks expected - and when Victorino scrapped switch hitting, his ghastly platoon split went with it. He doesn't even have to be that good the next 2 seasons for the contract to be a major win for the Red Sox.

 

Ellsbury has a lot more going for him entering the market - he was arguable the Red Sox best player his last 2 healthy seasons. Of course there is the rub - and because he is 30 and not 27/28 like BJ Upton was entering the market last year, it is harder to close your eyes and dream of any yet-to-be-realized upside. (never mind that Upton fell on his face, there is at least more prime years to project at his age) I'd like him back - but it is hard to commit the years that undoubtedly somebody will offer him.

Tampa seems to make the right deals most all of the time.

[marklmw]

Wow I would like to see those rankings. Vic might be somewhere around 5th but there is no way that Ells is the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Too many guys out there with very similar range and way better arms. No question that Ells would definitely be in the top 10 for ML defensive outfielders and I would think Vic would be there as well with Ells a bit ahead of Vic even given Vics obvious advantage in arm strength and accuracy.

 

That said I don't think you can rank "deals" unless they are deals made in the same year. Ells is coming up in the FA market this year. I think the Sox will make him a very attractive offer. I also think they will be outbid by some team that is looking for a great ballplayer that can also be the face of their franchise. We already have a face of the franchise guy...Pedey. So I think there will e a point where the Sox will not be willing to go for Ells.

 

I'll look for the fielding ranking ... I believe it was referenced on the Boston Red Sox ESPN site under 2013 achievements.

[Palodios]

More on Ellsbury and his upcoming contract negotiations:

 

Lets consider the last four years in terms of games played and OPS.

 

Player A: 147/.756, 132/.847, 154/.704, 122/.801

 

Player B: 18/.485, 158/.928, 74/.682, 134/.781

 

Player A is a bit faster; player B has a MUCH better throwing arm. There is just a two year age difference. Player A costs $13M and is signed for just two more years; Player B is likely to cost $18M or more over at least six years.

 

Which is the better deal?

 

I posted a nearly identical post last offseason comparing Players A - F, which turned out to be Ells, Vic, Upton, Sanchez, Bourn and someone else. Victorino always end up looking like the best deal.

[marklmw]

This is spot on. I personally think the Sox should go slightly above Pence money for Ellsbury, since he is a better ballplayer but has a questionable health track record. The problem is that some team is going to offer him middle-of-the-order superstar money and the Sox won't match that.

 

This is the link: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/index/_/count/76

12 Notable Player Achievements by Gordon Edes

* Ellsbury and right-fielder Shane Victorino both ranked in the Top 5 in Zone Runs, one of the top metrics for defensive players. Ellsbury led all outfielders with 23 Zone Runs, which is the number of runs above or below what an average player was worth, based on number of plays made. Victorino led all AL right-fielders with 15, and was fifth overall.

I had not heard of this metric before but my eyes tell me that Ellsbury does track down a lot of balls in the gaps.

[SoxSport]

Ells and Vic are clicking in CF and RF. But they both are somewhat prone to injury. They take a hit defensively with the other backups on the roster. That's why next year, you figure Bradley makes the team--or at least sits in Pawtucket for when he's needed.

 

The way the team is playing right now, it would be foolish to break up the chemistry. Though they aren't there yet--by a longshot.

[jung]

I just there was a different Ells thread than this one. Every time somebody brings this one to the top and I read Ellsbury out at first I think it is a new thread!

[jung]

OK so Ells lead in zone runs which makes some sense but does not make him the top defensive outfielder in baseball.

[FredLynn]

Look, No doubt that Victorino had a great year but I do not get your point. Victorino caught fire at the end of the season and he played solid defense throughout the year. I read a stat where Ellsbury was ranked as the top defensive outfielder in the game with Victorino ranked 5th. If the Sox can keep them both they should. We had two closers on the DL this season eating 11M of the 2013 payroll. There are people on this forum that think Ellsbury is worth 15m per year and that his legs are going to give out on him in 3 years time ... I am not buying this at all. Suppose they can get him at 18M and we are overpaying him by 3m per year ... big deal. Maybe we sign Abreu at 10M / 6 and he turns out to be worth 18M per year. Napoli is going to make 13M for 2013 and he is a FA after this season. Signing Ellsbury would be a no-brainer if not for Jackie Bradley Jr. waiting in the wings at $500K per.

 

Not trying to put Ellsbury down at all. I think he is a very good player and I would love to have him return to the team-IF the price is right. I am quite sure the management has already had some thoughts about what their bottom line will be, and as others have said, we will probably be outbid by some team looking for an impact player, which Ellsbury is. The purpose of the original comparison is just to draw attention to the fact that a guy who has at least as good a track record over the past four years got a deal for $13M for three years just last year. I do not want the Sox to overpay Ellsbury either in money OR in years-especially with his injury history. And I don't think they will do that.

[FredLynn]

I posted a nearly identical post last offseason comparing Players A - F, which turned out to be Ells, Vic, Upton, Sanchez, Bourn and someone else. Victorino always end up looking like the best deal.

 

It would be a coup if we could manage to keep both of those guys at the top of our lineup. They are dynamite there. Bradley is an untested rookie, and I do not see any other OF who are as good as Ellsbury on the market, including Choo. Unfortunately, I do not think that will happen, not with Boras representing him.

[Dojji]

Wow I would like to see those rankings. Vic might be somewhere around 5th but there is no way that Ells is the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Too many guys out there with very similar range and way better arms.

 

I think that just goes to show just how much fans overrate the arm tool. It's great to steal a couple outs here and there and retard the baserunning game, but it doesn't touch the level of out generation that range can provide.

[jung]

I think that just goes to show just how much fans overrate the arm tool. It's great to steal a couple outs here and there and retard the baserunning game, but it doesn't touch the level of out generation that range can provide.

 

True but in reality, the matrices do not at this point exist that can really quantify defensive play for really any position as yet. They are getting closer. But the best they can do at this point is focus on very specific categories. Nothing really binds them together and provides you a whole picture of the defender in a really meaningful way. UZR gets as close as they can get at least today.

 

Interestingly at Fangraphs Vic outranks Ells in RZR, OOZ and UZR. Ells has more plays over which his stats are spread, not unusual for a guy playing CF. Certainly RZR and OOZ would not offer much benefit to a guy with a better arm as they are stats mostly about being able to go and get it. There are really a good many outfielders that rank higher than Ells in those stat categories. Still and all, even in the specific categories that we have today, there is much that seems to go missing. Guys like James are probably spending more time trying to improve on defensive stats than any other category.

[User Name]

It would be a coup if we could manage to keep both of those guys at the top of our lineup. They are dynamite there. Bradley is an untested rookie, and I do not see any other OF who are as good as Ellsbury on the market, including Choo. Unfortunately, I do not think that will happen, not with Boras representing him.

 

Choo is a better overall player than Ellsbury, and it's not particularly close.

[Bellhorn04]

Choo is a better overall player than Ellsbury, and it's not particularly close.

 

Based on offensive numbers it's not close. If you use WAR per game it's pretty close. But Choo has been much more consistent obviously.

[User Name]

Based on offensive numbers it's not close. If you use WAR per game it's pretty close. But Choo has been much more consistent obviously.

 

Consistent and healthy. There's a reason why a significant part of the WAR calculation is based upon games played.

[sk7326]

Consistent and healthy. There's a reason why a significant part of the WAR calculation is based upon games played.

 

Well this year was only Choo's 2nd 5-win caliber season, which puts him in line with Ellsbury. But yes, the games played matter and Choo has made more of them. The dangers with Choo are an alarming split against lefties, and just the general risk of giving any 31 year old corner guy a contract into his mid-30s. Free agent signings are - as a general rule - losing propositions so it's something you have to live with. I do think his ghastly defensive numbers this year are really a function more of playing out of position than anything - move him to LF and things will be fine, even if the metrics might not show it. (Fenway's left field has confounded UZR through the history of the tool) His on-base skills might not be .423 for the next 2-3 years, but solid high .300s are completely reasonable. I do think the probability of him maintaining his value is greater than Ellsbury over the next 4 years.

[marklmw]

Well this year was only Choo's 2nd 5-win caliber season, which puts him in line with Ellsbury. But yes, the games played matter and Choo has made more of them. The dangers with Choo are an alarming split against lefties, and just the general risk of giving any 31 year old corner guy a contract into his mid-30s. Free agent signings are - as a general rule - losing propositions so it's something you have to live with. I do think his ghastly defensive numbers this year are really a function more of playing out of position than anything - move him to LF and things will be fine, even if the metrics might not show it. (Fenway's left field has confounded UZR through the history of the tool) His on-base skills might not be .423 for the next 2-3 years, but solid high .300s are completely reasonable. I do think the probability of him maintaining his value is greater than Ellsbury over the next 4 years.

 

Choo has great numbers and fits perfectly with the Sox hitting philosophy but I would rather give the full time LF position to Nava / Gomes as they are a much more affordable way to fill that position. Choo is going to be expensive and will be signing for multiple years.

[User Name]

Choo has great numbers and fits perfectly with the Sox hitting philosophy but I would rather give the full time LF position to Nava / Gomes as they are a much more affordable way to fill that position. Choo is going to be expensive and will be signing for multiple years.

 

But if Ellsbury leaves on a 110/120 million contract, you could move Victorino to center, Choo on right (provided he's significantly cheaper) and have a JBJ/Gomes platoon in left. You'd still be able to find enough AB's for Nava/Carp using that arrangement.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But if Ellsbury leaves on a 110/120 million contract, you could move Victorino to center, Choo on right (provided he's significantly cheaper) and have a JBJ/Gomes platoon in left. You'd still be able to find enough AB's for Nava/Carp using that arrangement.

 

I know it's a small sample, but I have not been impressed with Victorino in CF when Ells was out or needed a day. I don't think his reads are nearly as good, and he doesn't have the closing speed that Ellsbury has to make up for it.

 

I know UZR is not the best measure of small samples, but in his 108 innings in CF this year he's got a -13.1 UZR/150.

 

I would steer away from Victorino in CF other than as a backup.

[sk7326]

The tricky thing with keeping all of those guys is that if anything Choo could use a right handed partner - and the current guys don't provide that (Victorino aside and he is not platooning with anybody). Nava switchhits but is FAR less useful as a righty - and Carp, Bradley etc etc are lefty too.

 

I'd rather not move Victorino to CF full time, clearly the corner position has really helped him in all aspects ... he is still a good defensive CF, but he will be less good most likely heading into his mid 30s - and keeping him in a corner still allows him to provide a ton of value on that side of the field. I say be ready for Bradley in CF and deal with Choo from a position of strength.

[sk7326]

I know it's a small sample, but I have not been impressed with Victorino in CF when Ells was out or needed a day. I don't think his reads are nearly as good, and he doesn't have the closing speed that Ellsbury has to make up for it.

 

I know UZR is not the best measure of small samples, but in his 108 innings in CF this year he's got a -13.1 UZR/150.

 

I would steer away from Victorino in CF other than as a backup.

 

The reads and such are less the problem than just covering the ground. It's why he has been magic in RF - because you'd expect an average-ish CF to be a knockout RF. He has delivered on that front. I have no fear of Bradley earning the gig.

[User Name]

I know it's a small sample, but I have not been impressed with Victorino in CF when Ells was out or needed a day. I don't think his reads are nearly as good, and he doesn't have the closing speed that Ellsbury has to make up for it.

 

I know UZR is not the best measure of small samples, but in his 108 innings in CF this year he's got a -13.1 UZR/150.

 

I would steer away from Victorino in CF other than as a backup.

 

Then you can play the vastly superior JBJ at CF, and move Choo to LF.

 

@sk: Good point, but you seem to forget about Gomes. All things considered, Bradley is unlikely to need a platoon partner if he gets his bearings. With the AL East being peppered with quality lefties though, that does bring Choo's value into question.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Then you can play the vastly superior JBJ at CF, and move Choo to LF.

 

@sk: Good point, but you seem to forget about Gomes. All things considered, Bradley is unlikely to need a platoon partner if he gets his bearings. With the AL East being peppered with quality lefties though, that does bring Choo's value into question.

 

Ah sorry - I thought you said Nava/Gomes platoon in LF.

 

Choo would be throwing bullets home from LF haha. I bet he'd pick off a huge amount of players trying to get a double on a wall-ball.

[mvp 78]

UN? has a Chooby.

[User Name]

UN? has a Chooby.

 

Nah, i like Choo, but only at sensible money. If he wants more a 100 million contract he can go Choo himself.

[marklmw]

Well this year was only Choo's 2nd 5-win caliber season, which puts him in line with Ellsbury. But yes, the games played matter and Choo has made more of them. The dangers with Choo are an alarming split against lefties, and just the general risk of giving any 31 year old corner guy a contract into his mid-30s. Free agent signings are - as a general rule - losing propositions so it's something you have to live with. I do think his ghastly defensive numbers this year are really a function more of playing out of position than anything - move him to LF and things will be fine, even if the metrics might not show it. (Fenway's left field has confounded UZR through the history of the tool) His on-base skills might not be .423 for the next 2-3 years, but solid high .300s are completely reasonable. I do think the probability of him maintaining his value is greater than Ellsbury over the next 4 years.

 

Choo has great numbers and fits perfectly with the Sox hitting philosophy but I would rather give the full time LF position to Nava / Gomes as they are a much more affordable way to fill that position. Choo is going to be expensive and will be signing for multiple years.