Ellsbury out

[sk7326]

Then you can play the vastly superior JBJ at CF, and move Choo to LF.

 

@sk: Good point, but you seem to forget about Gomes. All things considered, Bradley is unlikely to need a platoon partner if he gets his bearings. With the AL East being peppered with quality lefties though, that does bring Choo's value into question.

 

Right on Gomes - I keep forgetting him. I do think the larger point holds - the red flag on Choo if there is one is that he has over the last 3 years a significant platoon split. That would need to be addressed - either with a Gomes playing a good amount or just living with him being a .6xx OPS guy against lefties. It's not a terminal problem necessarily (Ortiz has made giant strides the last couple of years there), but still something which diminishes his value to me if I were playing GM.

[marklmw]

Ah sorry - I thought you said Nava/Gomes platoon in LF.

 

Choo would be throwing bullets home from LF haha. I bet he'd pick off a huge amount of players trying to get a double on a wall-ball.

 

Do you guys think that Choo is going to be significantly cheaper than Ellsbury? IMO If Ellsbury goes just have JBJ play center and have Gomes and Nava platoon in left. You cannot pay Choo money for Choo to platoon and Choo is below average against lefties. Gomes / Nava will deliver near the same numbers as Choo for what 7M. Choo puts up great numbers so he isn't going to come cheap.

[User Name]

Do you guys think that Choo is going to be significantly cheaper than Ellsbury? IMO If Ellsbury goes just have JBJ play center and have Gomes and Nava platoon in left. You cannot pay Choo money for Choo to platoon and Choo is below average against lefties. Gomes / Nava will deliver near the same numbers as Choo for what 7M. Choo puts up great numbers so he isn't going to come cheap.

 

I don't think Gomes/Nava would post nearly the same numbers overall (offense, defense, baserunning) but the difference is not enough to justify overpaying for Choo. If he's going to get a huge contract, he can get it elsewhere.

[sk7326]

Do you guys think that Choo is going to be significantly cheaper than Ellsbury? IMO If Ellsbury goes just have JBJ play center and have Gomes and Nava platoon in left. You cannot pay Choo money for Choo to platoon and Choo is below average against lefties. Gomes / Nava will deliver near the same numbers as Choo for what 7M. Choo puts up great numbers so he isn't going to come cheap.

 

Choo will get an 8-figure salary. He'll probably get 4 years too. The question about his value as teams assess him will probably be whether they think he can hit lefties enough to not be a minus. That to me will be the main driver of his contract. I agree that Gomes/Nava/Carp can do a sufficient job - not as good as Choo, but close enough, close enough for the Sox to not have to go crazy in the market.

[FredLynn]

Choo is a better overall player than Ellsbury, and it's not particularly close.

 

I like Choo as well. But he is not a very good defensive player, and is not someone I want in CF. In addition, Boras is his agent as well, so he is likely to demand a contract similar to what Ellsbury is going after. I do not think Vic is going to be able to handle CF next year for 140 games, and Bradley is still an unknown quantity. Its a difficult choice. If we could get Ellsbury or Choo (either would be fine) to play for us next year I would be happy, as long as the price is reasonable.

[User Name]

I like Choo as well. But he is not a very good defensive player, and is not someone I want in CF. In addition, Boras is his agent as well, so he is likely to demand a contract similar to what Ellsbury is going after. I do not think Vic is going to be able to handle CF next year for 140 games, and Bradley is still an unknown quantity. Its a difficult choice. If we could get Ellsbury or Choo (either would be fine) to play for us next year I would be happy, as long as the price is reasonable.

 

Choo is not a natural CF. His original position is RF where he's slightly below average, but he's been excellent in LF over a decent sample.

[marklmw]

Choo is not a natural CF. His original position is RF where he's slightly below average, but he's been excellent in LF over a decent sample.

 

Ellsbury has helped his case in the Divisional Series ... 1 down and 2 to go.

[marklmw]

IMO ... The 3 outfield positions are unique as are the infield positions. In right you need to have a great arm and in Fenway you also need a lot of range. Thankfully Victorino was made to play RF for Boston. In Center I want speed, good reads, and great range ... Ellsbury fits what you need at Fenway.

Left Field ... you have to be able to catch a baseball and be a very good hitter. Learning how to play the wall in Boston is a plus. Filling right and left for Boston is the key. I am not sure that JBJ can hit as well as Ellsbury and he is pretty poor at SB which I find very interesting. You would think that someone like JBJ with above average speed would have been successfully stealing bases at every level that he has played. I would not take Choo over Ellsbury based on Bostons need. Having Drew, Pedroia and Ellsbury up the middle in 2013 has been very successful.

[sk7326]

I like Choo as well. But he is not a very good defensive player, and is not someone I want in CF. In addition, Boras is his agent as well, so he is likely to demand a contract similar to what Ellsbury is going after. I do not think Vic is going to be able to handle CF next year for 140 games, and Bradley is still an unknown quantity. Its a difficult choice. If we could get Ellsbury or Choo (either would be fine) to play for us next year I would be happy, as long as the price is reasonable.

 

You are right - Choo is a bad CF. He was forced to play there by the Reds due to their alignment. Here he would play LF most likely. He will be more like "decent" than bad there.

[sk7326]

IMO ... The 3 outfield positions are unique as are the infield positions. In right you need to have a great arm and in Fenway you also need a lot of range. Thankfully Victorino was made to play RF for Boston. In Center I want speed, good reads, and great range ... Ellsbury fits what you need at Fenway.

Left Field ... you have to be able to catch a baseball and be a very good hitter. Learning how to play the wall in Boston is a plus. Filling right and left for Boston is the key. I am not sure that JBJ can hit as well as Ellsbury and he is pretty poor at SB which I find very interesting. You would think that someone like JBJ with above average speed would have been successfully stealing bases at every level that he has played. I would not take Choo over Ellsbury based on Bostons need. Having Drew, Pedroia and Ellsbury up the middle in 2013 has been very successful.

 

Stolen bases is not a strength for Bradley - but his speed is good. This is not uncommon - Bernie Williams was basically this way and he turned out OK. Stolen bases in this day and age are nice to have, but not an essential quality, even to be a good baserunner.

 

One thing to remember too about defense is - it is one of the things that often improves through coaching - there is generally very little defensive fundamentals taught at the amateur level. Even big league fielding coaches still add a lot of value thee. Ellsbury came up a shaky "reader" who could cover up mistakes with his speed - he is much better now. No reason Bradley can't have that sort of arc - he is probably better already than Ellsbury was when he entered the league.

[marklmw]

Stolen bases is not a strength for Bradley - but his speed is good. This is not uncommon - Bernie Williams was basically this way and he turned out OK. Stolen bases in this day and age are nice to have, but not an essential quality, even to be a good baserunner.

 

One thing to remember too about defense is - it is one of the things that often improves through coaching - there is generally very little defensive fundamentals taught at the amateur level. Even big league fielding coaches still add a lot of value thee. Ellsbury came up a shaky "reader" who could cover up mistakes with his speed - he is much better now. No reason Bradley can't have that sort of arc - he is probably better already than Ellsbury was when he entered the league.

 

True or False.

Players who are near the top of the league in SB's with a .300 avg. and a .320 avg. when leading off an inning are a pain in every pitchers ass?

 

I pitched a little ... until I was 21 and each time I went out to begin a game I was striving for perfection. Never happened. However the longer a pitcher goes without giving up a run the more focused and 'zoned in' he becomes. Baserunners like Ellsbury can break a pitchers heart. There are more intangibles in baseball than fans realize. All the players are human and not just breathing statistics. There was a report that Ellsbury will land in Seattle at 21M per at 6/7 years. If true Ellsbury will not be back in Boston.

[seabeachfred]

Here is the thing using the Victorino comparison. Victorino was a really shaky deal at the signing - a lot of projection for a guy who had a poor season with increasingly intolerable splits. The Red Sox blew the market away with that signing. 32 years old, coming off of a bad season with increasing evidence he could not hit righties ... that did not make for an $13M player. The Red Sox did a good job projecting the defensive impact - more than what a lot of folks expected - and when Victorino scrapped switch hitting, his ghastly platoon split went with it. He doesn't even have to be that good the next 2 seasons for the contract to be a major win for the Red Sox.

 

Ellsbury has a lot more going for him entering the market - he was arguable the Red Sox best player his last 2 healthy seasons. Of course there is the rub - and because he is 30 and not 27/28 like BJ Upton was entering the market last year, it is harder to close your eyes and dream of any yet-to-be-realized upside. (never mind that Upton fell on his face, there is at least more prime years to project at his age) I'd like him back - but it is hard to commit the years that undoubtedly somebody will offer him.

 

Read today a missive that Seattle reportedly is ready to offer Ellsbury a six year $121 million dollar contract. If that has a strong element of truth to it Jacoby is as good as gone because the Red Sox will never match that. Too bad because the more I see him perform the more I think he is heading for some very solid years. Then again, that is only my opinion.

[marklmw]

OK so Ells lead in zone runs which makes some sense but does not make him the top defensive outfielder in baseball.

you may be right about that but there is no doubt in my mind that he is one of the top 3 center fielders in the game and Center Field in the outfield is the equivalent of SS in the infield. Ellsbury is a great athlete and whoever he signs with and whatever he gets he deserves all of it. He did not return from broken ribs and shoulder injuries without a lot of effort.

[sk7326]

True or False.

Players who are near the top of the league in SB's with a .300 avg. and a .320 avg. when leading off an inning are a pain in every pitchers ass?

 

I pitched a little ... until I was 21 and each time I went out to begin a game I was striving for perfection. Never happened. However the longer a pitcher goes without giving up a run the more focused and 'zoned in' he becomes. Baserunners like Ellsbury can break a pitchers heart. There are more intangibles in baseball than fans realize. All the players are human and not just breathing statistics. There was a report that Ellsbury will land in Seattle at 21M per at 6/7 years. If true Ellsbury will not be back in Boston.

 

True: Hitters with a .350-.400 OBP are a pain in the ass to pitchers, period. The players ARE human - and I do not dispute that there an intangibles. But they do show up in the end product - that is the whole point. If having a 50 SB guy were essential, then more good teams would have them. But they're not. They are nice to have, but line drive power and the ability to just get on base no matter what are nicer. This is not a paean against stolen bases - I like them. But getting to first base is WAY more important, and there is no such thing as clogging the basepaths with runners.

[marklmw]

True: Hitters with a .350-.400 OBP are a pain in the ass to pitchers, period. The players ARE human - and I do not dispute that there an intangibles. But they do show up in the end product - that is the whole point. If having a 50 SB guy were essential, then more good teams would have them. But they're not. They are nice to have, but line drive power and the ability to just get on base no matter what are nicer. This is not a paean against stolen bases - I like them. But getting to first base is WAY more important, and there is no such thing as clogging the basepaths with runners.

 

I respectfully disagree. Every team in baseball would like to have a Jacoby Ellsbury leading off. This season he hit .320 leading off an inning. Finding players with speed that can also consistently get on base are not so easy to find at the major league level. If they were then every team would have one. Furthermore .... there are 2 seasons ... the regular and post season ... the SB is even more of an asset in the post season when one run and lower scoring games are almost the norm.